Mock Draft Army: ADP Risers & Fallers

Though it’s been a little while since I’ve posted ADP numbers for the Mock Draft Army, it’s certainly not for a lack of drafts. The Army has been in full swing and we’re still doing anywhere from five to seven drafts per week, including PPR, standard and even some two-QB drafts. They’ve ranged from 10 to 14 team mocks and we’ve even, for most, started to increase the number of rounds we draft from 15 to 20 in an effort to go deeper into the player pool. Those in the NFFC who are used to drafting 20-30 rounds made that request and I happily obliged.

However, one change that I did have to make was found in unifying the ADP. Simply put, there just weren’t enough standard or two-QB drafts to generate a strong ADP for that style. We all know the cries of sample size and as a result, I could not, in good conscience, pass off ADP for six drafts as completely reliable. So what I have done is combined them all into one unifying ADP and after matching up results from the NFFC, the only other ADP worth its salt in my opinion, it would appear that the overall difference is negligible. The numbers from the Army can and should be considered 100-percent reliable. Those of you in standard and two-QB leagues should simply make your own common sense pivots when necessary.

That being said, it’s time to start looking at the recent trends we are currently seeing with regard to ADP movement. Now that training camp has been officially underway and we’re actually starting to see job battles being fought, it’s a good time to take a look at the current ADP numbers in relation to where the numbers were right before camp. We’ll check in on some of the more notable risers and fallers as well as some of the key new faces we’ve seen since expanding the Army drafts to 20 rounds. The movement hasn’t exactly been abundant, but watch for the bigger swings further into the month of August.

Risers

Josh Gordon, WR CLE (+24.9%) – Well duh. Of course he’s on the rise. He started off as a late-round grab anywhere between the 12^th and 15^th round, but since being reinstated, people are now grabbing the much-maligned receiver as early as the sixth. It’s tough to recommend him at this kind of an asking price now, but fantasy owners can certainly keep their fingers crossed that he continues to walk the straight and narrow.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB NYJ (+19.9%) – An immediate jump was expected once the Jets finally caved in and admitted that their offense is complete crap without Fitzpatrick under center. The values of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker also take a nice increase and suddenly everything seems to be in harmony for both Gang Green and their fantasy owners. Given last year’s performance, we expect his ADP to continue climbing as many will put him in as a top-10 QB now.

Josh Doctson, WR WAS (+4.3%) – While some might be buying into the hype Docston has been receiving recently, the rookie wideout from TCU got some good news in that his Achilles injury is not deemed serious and he is expected to return to the practice field by mid-August. The Redskins are touting him as a strong red zone threat so those in standard and TD-only leagues are back on him again.

Fallers

Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT (-38.3%) – The impending four-game suspension had started knocking him down the ADP charts, but recent news that he may not even be suspended will reverse that trend almost immediately. If he is not suspended, you can bet that he will move back to a steady top-five overall showing.

Ted Ginn, Jr., WR CAR (-6.8%) – Despite a strong second half last year, no one seems to be buying into Ginn as a strong fantasy option. With Kelvin Benjamin returning from his knee injury and the presence of both Devin Funchess and Philly Brown, Ginn seems to be considered run-of-the-mill, at best. Deeper league owners should still track his progress this summer as he doesn’t exactly have a bunch of world-beater wideouts blocking his path.

Vincent Jackson, WR TB (-4.2%) – After the decline fantasy owners saw last year, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to see V-Jax dropping in the ADP ranks. Quarterback Jameis Winston and receiver Mike Evans have developed a strong rapport while tight end Cameron Brate seems to be a potential red zone threat to Jackson’s targets. He should still be considered a solid option given the lack of much else in the Tamp receiving corps, but he still seems to be headed on a downward trajectory.

Key New Faces

Josh Ferguson, RB IND – Frank Gore is getting a little long in the tooth and both Jordan Todman and Robert Turbin remain underwhelming options out of the backfield. Ferguson was an undrafted free agent trying to make a name for himself and impressed during OTAs. If he can continue, he just might be able to land the No. 2 job behind Gore.

Anquan Boldin, WR DET – His signing with the Lions put Boldin right back onto the ADP map. Yes, they have Golden Tate and yes, they brought in Marvin Jones, but Boldin is a proven receiving threat capable of coming down with any ball and moving the chains. If he and Matthew Stafford have a strong showing in camp, Boldin could prove to be a PPR beast once again.

Alex Collins, RB SEA – With C.J. Prosise nursing a hamstring injury, Collins, a fifth-round pick out of Arkansas, is starting to make a name for himself in the early goings of training camp. Thomas Rawls is still being held out and Christine Michael still sucks, so Collins is getting a nice, long look right now. Obviously it’s early, but with his ability to catch passes and rush between the tackles, Collins could be a guy worth watching.

ADP Trend Report