MLB ADP: Average Draft Position Trends & Value Analysis
What Is MLB ADP?
MLB ADP stands for Average Draft Position, and it shows where a player is typically being selected across a large sample of fantasy baseball drafts. Instead of reflecting one analyst’s ranking, ADP captures real draft behavior—what fantasy managers are actually doing when they’re on the clock. This makes it a valuable reference for understanding market value, timing your picks, and identifying players who may be slipping below—or rising above—their expected draft range.
What MLB ADP Tells You
MLB Average Draft Position (ADP) reflects where players are being drafted across many leagues. Instead of just listing rankings, ADP shows you real-world draft behavior — what managers are actually doing in the draft room. Seeing where a player is going on average helps you avoid reaching too early or waiting too long on positions of need. It’s a powerful tool for draft decision-making.
How To Use ADP In Your Draft Strategy
ADP is most useful when paired with your sit-and-league context. If a player’s ADP is rising, that suggests growing confidence from the broader community — but that also means you might need to adjust your own timing. Conversely, when a player’s ADP drops below their projected value, it can signal a prime value pick. Using ADP lets you balance value and need, rather than drafting strictly by rank.
ADP Across Formats: Redraft, Keeper & Dynasty
ADP can change dramatically depending on league format. In redraft leagues, ADP reflects seasonal focus and short-term projections. In keeper and dynasty leagues, long-term potential and age value play a bigger role. Watching how ADP differed by format helps you adapt: a young breakout with strong dynasty ADP might not be as valuable in redraft, and vice versa.
Positional Trends & Draft Position Movement
Tracking where catchers, shortstops, or closers go relative to ADP helps you understand positional runs and draft dynamics. For instance, if catchers are starting to go earlier than in past years, that might change how you approach other positions. Monitoring positional ADP trends helps you anticipate runs and avoid being left behind at thin positions.
Detecting Value & Avoiding Reaches With ADP
ADP isn’t perfection, but it’s crowd-derived insight — a lens on value that goes beyond static lists. If you have your own projection model and it disagrees with ADP, that disagreement can be your edge. For example, if a bat’s ADP is lower than its projected future performance, that’s a potential steal — especially in later rounds. Conversely, if a high ADP isn’t justified by projection context, it might be a reach.