Drafting in fantasy basketball often comes down to a high-wire act between upside and risk, but when early-round capital is on the line, floor and availability are everything. Navigating this year’s draft board means spotting the red flags early, whether it's murky injury recovery timelines, crowded backcourts, or declining efficiency roles. From a marquee wing managing a partially torn Achilles to high-upside players trapped in tricky rotation battles or chronic health concerns, taking any of these names at their current ADP could leave your fantasy roster in an immediate need for help. Before you lock in your picks, here are five bust candidates you should consider fading or taking off your draft board entirely. 

Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Clippers - ADP: 75.97

By the time the regular season rolls around, it’s highly unlikely that Brandon Ingram’s ADP sticks where it is, but if you’re already drafting, take him off your board completely. Ingram had heel surgery back in May, but what was found was a partially torn Achilles. Not fully torn, which has proven to be the kiss of death for a lot of hoopers, but still a tear nonetheless.

The timeline of recovery is very vague, and there has been nothing from the Clippers other than the fact that he’s going to miss the beginning of the year for sure. He’s getting light on-court work now, but he still has a long way to ramp up before he’s ready to get into game action and even then, play at full capacity and pay off a top 76 ADP.

2025 was the first time since Ingram’s rookie year that he played at least 65 games (played in 77), and that makes you wonder if it’s his body rejecting that type of workload. Ingram has a good opportunity in Los Angeles, but who knows how much he’ll actually play this year for a team that’s without its owner, general manager, lost multiple first-round picks, and traded away the face of its franchise.

 

 

 

VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers - ADP: 80.7

I absolutely could end up with egg on my face here, but we’re potentially dropping an eighth-round pick on a fifth option. As much as I love VJ Edgecombe, what if all the scenarios that nightmares are made of: What if skinny Joel Embiid plays 70-plus games? What if LeBron James at 41 plays back-to-backs and stays healthy? All that plus Edgecombe has to stay perfectly healthy in order to maximize his value when one or two of the Philadelphia stars are off the floor.

Edgecombe has many different abilities, and that will keep his floor relatively high, but his ceiling is capped with his teammates around him. His numbers are slightly inflated from his rookie campaign because of how much time Embiid and Paul George missed. I’m going to pass unless his ADP starts coming down.

Ja Morant, Portland Trail Blazers - ADP: 90.2

There are endless question marks about the Portland Trail Blazers roster, and they’re specifically tied to the guard position. Head coach Micah Nori has brought that up too, and it’s very likely that either Damian Lillard or Ja Morant will come off the Blazers bench, and Jrue Holiday will likely start. It’s possible Morant starts over Lillard, but what Lillard has meant to Portland throughout his career, I’m not so sure about that.

Now, getting to Morant on the floor – he’s not on it much. He has only topped 50 games once over his last three seasons and twice has played less than 21 games. In today’s era of awards, Morant would only qualify once in his career through seven seasons, so that just speaks to his overall availability. His play on the court took a big drop last year too, showing a career-low from the field (41%), from three (24%), and his lowest point average since 2020-’21.

 

 

 

Kristaps Porzingis, Golden State Warriors - ADP: 107.1

It’s really hard to imagine Kristaps Porzingis paying off his ADP as he’s already sidelined for an undetermined amount of time. The team hasn’t ruled him out for the start of the season or anything like that, but there is clearly still something going on, like there was last season as well.

This illness that Porzingis has is something he’s been dealing with over the last three seasons, and he hasn’t been able to play more than 57 games in any of the seasons. He’s only played 42 and 32 in each of the last two seasons. It’s hard to imagine if he’s already dealing with the illness before the season starts that it’s going to improve throughout the grind of an 82-game regular season.

Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings - ADP: 115.6

I’m very, very skeptical of Keegan Murray coming into 2026 because everything has really taken a nose dive since his rookie campaign. After making 200-plus threes in his rookie campaign at a 41% clip, he’s failed to be over 36% in each of the last two seasons. Last season was pretty much a long cause for Murray in general, as he only played 23 games, but his shooting woes spread at every level, and now the Kings are much healthier and are adding an offensive weapon in Darius Acuff to the fold. 

When it comes to the counting stats, Murray doesn’t really excel anywhere and is very average in most places. He’s a plus defender and is a decent rebounder, but you expect more out of your starting power forward. He’s ranked 125th here in our top-200, and I’m willing to rank him even lower than that, let alone draft him at a 115 ADP.