There are three unbeaten teams in Denver, Minnesota and Philadelphia. Sixty-four of the previous 77 teams that started 4-0 have made the playoffs since 1990 (83.1 percent).

If a team is 2-2 they have a 37.5 percent chance of making the playoffs since 1990 (117 of 312).

Through Week 4 there have been 47 games decided by eight or fewer points. That ties the all-time record set back in 2004.

Five games have been won by teams that were trailing by 10 or more points in the 4th quarter, the fourth most in league history through four weeks.


Here's a link to the Fantasy Alarm WEEKLY PLAYER RANKINGS.

Here’s a link to the DFS NFL PLAYBOOK PRO.

** Game recaps are from NFL Media.

** All times listed are EDT.

*** Any reference to fantasy points assumes a PPR setup.

BYE WEEK: Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle




Thursday, October 06, 2016



Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers



LAST MEETING: 11/29/15: Cardinals 19 at 49ers 13. Arizona QB Carson Palmer has GW 8-yard TD run with 2:28 remaining. Cardinals S Tyrann Mathieu has 13 tackles & INT.




Arizona Cardinals

* Carson Palmer will not play this week as he tries to return from a concussion. That would be a huge blow to Cards skill players as the team would have to turn to Drew Stanton. Over his last 40 pass attempts Stanton has completed 40 percent of his passes on his way to no scores and four picks.

John Brown blew up last week (10-144 on 16 targets). See this Big 3 Video. The Niners have allowed six scores to wideouts and Brown went for 5-99 in the last meeting. He figures to have continued success with Stanton under center, though expectations need to be muted.

Chris Johnson has been placed on the I.R. with a groin issue meaning he will be on the shelf for at least eight games. With his injury it seems like Andre Ellington will become the #2 man, followed by Stepfan Taylor.

David Johnson takes on the Niners who are last in football with 140.5 rushing yards against per game. With the Niners best run stopping linebacker out as well, NaVorro Bowman is done with an Achilles tear, Johnson should feast in this matchup. Johnson has 100-yards from scrimmage each game this season and had a rushing score in the last matchup. Johnson also has 14 grabs for 210 yards, an average of 53 yards a game, as a pass catcher.

Larry Fitzgerald has caught nine passes the last two games against the Niners. He also scored twice in the last matchup. Fitzgerald has caught at least five passes each game this season and he’s produced at least 60-yards each game as well. He’s averaged 10 targets a game.

Michael Floyd has scored in two of his last three games, drops and all. He’s averaged just three receptions and 42.5 yards a game. It’s very difficult to trust him, with Palmer on the sidelines.

Chandler Jones has six sacks his last six games including one in every game this season.

Tyrann Mathieu has two picks the last three matchups.

San Francisco 49ers

Blaine Gabbert threw for 318 yards and a score in the last meeting. Not happening this week. He’s averaging just 182 passing yards a game this season with one score and one pick a week. He’s simply not startable. Colin Kaepernick is waiting in the wings for his chance.

Shaun Draughn is averaging six touches and 20 yards a game.

Carlos Hyde has scored four times his last two games against the NFC West. He also leads the NFC with five rushing scores this season. After averaging 4.0 and 4.1 YPC his first two seasons the mark is 4.1 this season as he’s averaging 18 carries a week. The Cardinals are allowing the 6th fewest points a week to running backs.

Jeremy Kerley caught six balls for 88 yards and score last week. He’s the only startable wideout on this team even though he’s averaged 4.5 receptions a game for just 51 yards. He has one score this season. The Cardinals have allowed a score per game to the wideout, but the 13th fewest points a game. He will be opposed by Tyrann Mathieu. Not good.

Vance McDonald (hip) missed last week and it’s unknown if he will play this week. Garrett Celek caught five balls for 79 yards last week. The Cardinals are allowing the 5th fewest points a week to tight ends.

Quinton Patton continues to be on the field a ton, but he also continues to provide no offense (10-106 this season).

Torrey Smith can’t get anything going with noddle armed Gabbert under center. He’s been a massive disappointment with a mere nine receptions for 106 yards and one score through four games.



Washington at Baltimore Ravens



LAST MEETING: 12/9/12: Ravens 28 at Redskins 31 (OT). Washington RB Alfred Morris rushes for 129 yards & TD. Redskins K Kai Forbath kicks GW 34-yard FG in OT.




Washington Redskins

Kirk Cousins threw for three touchdowns last week. He has also thrown for 300-yards in 5-of-8 games and is averaging 293 passing yards a contest this week. The Ravens are allowing the 7th fewest points to signal callers this season. The Ravens also come in at 4th best in the DVOA rankings.

Jamison Crowder has scored in 2-of-3 games. He’s also caught just six of 10 targets the last two weeks and has failed to hit 40-yards in 2-of-3 games.

Josh Doctson is an injured non-entity.

Matt Jones continues to improve his carry total and yardage marks each game this season (see this Big-3 Video) culminating in his 22-117-1 effort last week. Rob Kelley continues to be a non-entity. The Ravens are allowing the fourth fewest points to runners this season and that includes two scores in four games.

Pierre Garcon has caught just 17 passes in four games while not reaching 60-yards in any outing. He hasn’t scored.

DeSean Jackson has failed to reach 45 yards in 2-of-3 games. He’s scored only once in four games. The Ravens have been beating for eight touchdowns by wideouts. Crazy awful.

Jordan Reed caught nine balls for 73 yards and two scores. No tight end reached 200 receptions faster than Jordan Reed (38 games). He’s averaging six receptions for 66 yards a game. The Ravens allow the 6th fewest points a week to tight ends.

Chris Thompson has caught just eight passes in four games. He’s averaging 18 rushing yards this season.

Baltimore Ravens

Kamar Aiken is useless right now. He’s caught six passes for 28 yards.

Joe Flacco has averaged three 25+ yard passes a game the last six years. The past two games he’s averaging just one. Flacco has thrown the second most passes in football under five yards and his 6.3 YPA is 30th in the league. He’s tossed just one passing score the last two games but he does have a rushing score the last two games.

Justin Forsett has been released. Kenneth Dixon should return from injury this week and battle Terrance West for touches with West in the lead after taking 21 carries for 113 yards and a score last season. Dixon might fill a third down role this week. The ‘Skins have allowed eight rushing scores this season, the most in football. They have also allowed a whopping 4.9 YPC and 133 yards a game on the ground.

Crockett Gillmore has four receptions for 43 yards.

Breshad Perriman has caught eight balls for 113 yards.

Dennis Pitta has 21 receptions, the second most for a tight end in the AFC. At the same time, he’s failed to crest 45 yards in three of four games without scoring. The Redskins have allowed the 17th most points a week to tight ends.

Steve Smith caught eight balls for 111 yards and a score last week. The previous week he caught eight balls for 87 yards. He’s seen nine targets in 3-of-4 games. The Skins’ allow the 7th most points a week to wideouts.

Mike Wallace has caught three scores in four games and the Skins have allowed five scores to wideouts. Still, Wallace has failed to catch more than four passes in a game, hasn’t scored in two weeks, and has been under 45 yards for the last three contests.



New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns



LAST MEETING: 12/8/13: Browns 26 at Patriots 27. New England QB Tom Brady passes for 418 yards & 2 TDs, including GW 1-yarder to WR Danny Amendola with 31 seconds remaining.




New England Patriots

Danny Amendola has caught a mere nine passes for 119 yards in four games. He has scored twice.

Martellus Bennett has failed to reach 15 yards twice in four games. He’s been over 100-yards in 2-of-3 games.

LeGarrette Blount carried the ball a season-low 13 times last week though he was still out there for 10 more snaps than James White (32 to 22).  Blount was the AFC Offensive Player of the Month. He is third in the NFL with 352 rushing yards and tied for third with four rushing scores. The Browns have allowed 4.3 YPC and 118 rushing yards, the 9th most in football.

Tom Brady returns to action after a 4-game suspension to take on the 8th worst defense according to DVOA. Lock and load Brady as a QB1.

Julian Edelman has scored seven times in 12 games, though none this season. He’s seen just 10 targets leading to five receptions for 54 yards the last two games. Things will greatly improve with Brady under center. The Browns have allowed six touchdowns to wideouts.

Rob Gronkowski still isn’t right. STILL. His non-issue hamstring situation, from training camp, still isn’t right in the 5th week of the NFL season. That sound right to you? He’s still a must start with Brady back this week. The Browns are allowing the 4th most points a week to tight ends including a league worst 32 receptions.

Chris Hogan has caught eight balls for 122 yards and one score in four games. Can Brady help him to become relevant?

Malcolm Mitchell has four receptions for 75 yards in four games.

Cleveland Browns

Gary Barnidge has seen his reception total increase each game (0, 4, 5 and 7). He’s crested 55-yards in 2-straight games. He’s still looking for his first score this season. The Pats have allowed one score to tight ends.

Corey Coleman is still out (hand). His replacement, Andrew Hawkins, has eight receptions for 70 yards this season.

Isaiah Crowell was on the field for 18 touches last week compared to 15 for Duke Johnson. Note that Johnson was actually on the field for nine more snaps, 43 to 34, on the way to 15 touches, his highest total of the season. Crowell leads the NFL with nine 15-yard runs and his 386 rushing yards is second in the league. He also has six rushing scores in eight games. Johnson has 79 receptions since the start of last season, the 4th most amongst runners. Duke has also seen his reception total increase each week (3, 4, 5 and 6 with 5, 5, 7 and 8 targets a week). The Patriots have allowed 28 grabs to runners, the second most in football.

Cody Kessler only threw seven passes last week that were in the air for 10-yards. Dink and dunk was all it was. He has completed 67 percent of his passes in two weeks, but he’s failed to reach 245 passing yards in two games despite averaging 37 pass attempts a game.

Terrelle Pryor has caught 13 of 23 targets in two games with Kessler under center. He’s also scored just once this season and has reached 50-yards just once in three games. Still a work in progress and he faces the Pats who are allowing the 11th fewest points to wideouts.



Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions



LAST MEETING: 11/26/15: Eagles 14 at Lions 45. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford passes for 337 yards & 5 TDs for 137.8 rating. Lions WR Calvin Johnson has 8 receptions for 93 yards & 3 TDs.




Philadelphia Eagles

Nelson Agholor has caught 11 of 15 targets for 120 yards and a score this season. He saw only three targets in his last outing.

Kenjon Barner ran for a touchdown his last game while Wendell Smallwood rushed for 79 yards and a score of his own. Darren Sproles caught six balls for 128 yards and a long score in his last game (that’s hit only score and Sproles is averaging just 19 yards a game as a runner). Ryan Mathews has had two weeks to rest his ankle (bye week). He’s still a bit sore, but note that HC Doug Pederson said that Mathews is the lead runner when he’s healthy. Don’t overlook the fact that Mathews does have three rushing scores this season. We might see a 3-headed monster this week with Barner out of the mix causing there to be no trustworthy option, even in a good matchup. The Lions have allowed 4.8 YPC but they have permitted no rushing scores.

Zach Ertz hopes to return from his rib issue this week. The Lions have allowed six scores to tight ends this season and have permitted a massive 18 scores in 20 games to the position.

Dorial Green-Beckham continues to be talked up. He continues to do nothing. He has caught seven of 10 targets for 65 yards this season.

Jordan Matthews disappeared last game in the win over the Steelers but he still scored. Through three games he’s averaged five receptions for 68 yards and 0.67 scores on eight targets. The Lions are allowing the 8th most points a game to wide receivers.

Carson Wentz takes on the Lions who have allowed a league worst 12 passing scores. From this week’s Hot Takes article. “Wentz is last in the league with a 5.1 yards per aimed throw mark, according to PFF. He also has the lowest percentage of yards in the air of any quarterback in the game at 46.0 percent of his passing yards. That means his pass catchers have generated 54 percent of the yards he has put up. He’s been greatly dependent on his receivers making nice plays.”

Detroit Lions

Anquan Boldin has a touchdown in 2-of-3 games. He’s also caught 10 passes the last two games while seeing 14 targets. Too bad he’s produced just 53 yards in those two games and has failed to reach 50-yards in any game.

Eric Ebron has caught at least four passes in all four games. He’s also averaged 52.5 yards a game with at least 42 yards in all four games. He hasn’t scored in three games. The Eagles are allowing the fewest points a week to tight end and late word is that Ebron may not even suit up.

Marvin Jones has gone for 100-yards in 2-of-3 games. He’s also produced at least 74 yards in all four games. He’s averaged more than six grabs the last three games. No scores to wideouts this season by the Eagles by the way.

Theo Riddick and DeAndre Washington are opposed by the Eagles who are allowing 71 yards a game on the ground including just two rushing scores. Riddick saw 68 percent of the backfield touches last week as he caught four balls and ran the ball 11 times for 38 yards. He cannot run the ball between the tackles. He caught five balls for 62 yards and a score in the last matchup. Note that Zack Zenner saw one more touch than the injured Dwayne Washington (ankle) but ZZ was stuffed on a goaline carry. Still, his HC wants to get Zenner more work which could mean that Washington won’t appear this week due to his ankle issue.

Matthew Stafford threw for five scores and 337 yards in the last matchup. He also has a QB Rating of 100 in 2-of-4 games. He has thrown four picks the last three games with just four scores. The Eagles haven’t allowed a passing score this season and allow the fewest points a week to quarterbacks.

Golden Tate has scored in 2-straight games against the Eagles. He’s been an absolute non-entity catching seven balls for 54 yards the last three games. He also hasn’t scored this season. He cannot be started in any format.


Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts



LAST MEETING: 9/9/12: Colts 21 at Bears 41. Chicago QB Jay Cutler passes for 333 yards & 2 TDs. Bears WR Brandon Marshall has 9 receptions for 119 yards & TD.




Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler (hand) may not be able to play this week. In fact, it appears that Brian Hoyer will start. He’s tossed for 300-yards and two scores the last two times out, and last season in October while with the Texans he threw for 312 yards and two scores. The Colts are allowing 277 passing yards a week, have picked off just one pass and have generated just seven sacks.

Alshon Jeffery is seeing 6.25 targets a game and never more than seven. The last three years that mark has been 9.5. The number should go up with White out. Jeffery has failed to score this season and has seen his yardage total dip each game (105, 96, 70 and 46) as he continues to deal with a body that is less than 100 percent.

Jordan Howard touched the ball 26 of the 29 times that Bears’ backs touched the ball as Joique Bell carried the ball three times for six yards. Howard ran the ball 23 times for 111 yards. The Colts are allowing the 3rd most points a week to running backs including six scores (four rush, two catch).

Zach Miller has scored three times in two games. Remove Week 3 and his other three games result in 10 catches for 78 yards and one score. He’s missing practice with a rib issue. The Colts have allowed one score to the tight ends and the 13th fewest points a week.

Eddie Royal will have to step up against the Colts who have allowed the 6th most catches to wideouts this season. Royal caught seven balls for 111 yards and a score last week. In two games with Hoyer at the helm he’s caught 10 passes for 132 yards. He’s a guy who can have a big game but more often than not he’s just a placeholder. He’s also dealing with a calf issue that is costing him early week practices.

Kevin White has been placed on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. Back to the shelf he goes after a wasted rookie season. Cameron Meredith will likely operate as the 3rd receiver and should see a massive increase in production.

Indianapolis Colts

Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle. Ugh. Through four weeks Allen has 232 snaps, Doyle 177. Allen has caught 11 passes for 133 yards and a score. Doyle has caught 14 passes for 143 yards and two scores. The Bears have allowed one score to ends and the 11th fewest points a week to the position.

Phillip Dorsett scored last week on a 64 yard bomb. Still, he has just four grabs for 91 yards on a mere seven targets the last two weeks even with Donte Moncrief out (he will miss another game with a shoulder issue).

Frank Gore may have only been on the field six percent more than Josh Ferguson last week but he touched the ball 21 times leads to 95 yards and a scores while Ferguson touched the ball 10 times for 31 total yards (Ferguson does have 10 receptions the last two weeks). Gore has run for a score each of the last two games with 82 and 68 rushing yards. He’s also averaging three catches a game.

T.Y. Hilton caught 14 passes for 253 yards and a score at home this season in two outings. After along scoreless streak he’s scored in 2-straight games. Hilton has seen at least 10-targets in all four games. The Bears have allowed the 6th fewest points a game to wide receivers.

Andrew Luck is on pace for 4,500 passing yards and 32 scores. He’s thrown for a 60-yard score  in back-to-back outings. In his past three starts at home he has thrown for seven scores, just one pick and an average of 323 yards a game. The Bears are allowing the 9th fewest points a week to signal callers.



Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins



LAST MEETING: 10/18/15: Dolphins 38 at Titans 10. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill passes for 266 yards & 2 TDs. Dolphins RB Lamar Miller rushes for 113 yards & TD.




Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry simply isn’t touching the football. He’s carried the ball an average of six times a week and has caught three passes in four games. Merely a handcuff at the moment.

Marcus Mariota is playing bad football. Period. He’s completing just 59 percent of his passes for four scores. He’s been a turnover machine with five picks, at least one a game, and three fumbles (two lost). He’s failed to throw for 215 yards his last two outings. The Dolphins have picked off just once pass but have also allowed just five passing scores.

Rishard Matthews caught just two balls last week, on just two targets, for 82 yards. The Fish have allowed the third most grabs to wideouts.

DeMarco Murray has gone for 209 yards and three scores in the last two matchups. He has run for three scores the last two games. He’s caught at least five passes in 3-of-4 games. Overall he’s produced five touchdowns while averaging 124 yards from scrimmage. The Dolphins are allowing the 12th fewest points a week to runners.

Tajae Sharpe has been a big disappointment. After 11 targets in Week 1 he’s seen exactly seven targets each of the last three outings. After catching seven passes in Week 1 he’s caught just nine balls the last three games. He’s been held under 35 yards in 2-of-3 contests. The Dolphins allow the 5th most points a game to wide receivers.

Delanie Walker has struggled with health this season, but in the last matchup he caught eight balls for 97 yards. He caught just 2-of-8 targets last week, his return after missing a game with a hamstring issue. The Dolphins have allowed one score to ends and allow the 14th most points to the position.

Kendall Wright caught 2-of-3 passes for 14 yards in his first game back from injury.

Miami Dolphins

Jordan Cameron doesn’t seem likely to play this week cause of a concussion. Dion Sims will continue to fill in. Sims has six receptions for 76 yard this season. The Titans have allowed one score to tight ends.

Arian Foster continues to be sidelined by a groins issue, so it sounds like Jay Ajayi will be the lead back in Week 5. Luckily, HC Adam Gase has realized that using four backs is an idiotic move. That means Kenyan Drake might be the only backer to see work alongside Ajayi if indeed Foster sits as expected, though Foster did get in some practice Wednesday which is a certain positive (we don’t expect to see much Damian Williams). The Titans have allowed one rushing score this season and a middle of the pack 110 rushing yards a game.

Jarvis Landry has caught 31 balls for 402 yards and a score in his last four games at home. He’s seen at least 10 targets each game this season. He’s caught just one score but his worst effort this season is seven receptions for 59 yards.

DeVante Parker has scored in 2-straight at home. In his last three at home he’s averaged four receptions, 83.3 yards and 0.67 scores a game. At the same time he’s caught just five balls for 71 yards and a score his last two games overall.

Ryan Tannehill threw for 266/2 in the last matchup. He’s also looked inept at times the past few weeks and he has thrown five picks and lost two fumbles his last three games. He’s also failed to throw for 190-yards in two of four games with a total of one touchdown pass in those two games. The Titans are allowing the 6th fewest points to signal callers this season.

Kenny Stills scored last week from 74 yards, a fourth career score of 69 yards. He’s scored in 2-of-3 games but he’s also caught two or fewer passes in three of four outings.



Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings



LAST MEETING: 12/23/12: Vikings 23 at Texans 6. Minnesota QB Christian Ponder passes for 174 yards & TD. Vikings’ defense holds Houston to 187 total net yards & records 4 sacks.




Houston Texans

Will Fuller leads all rookies with 322 receiving yards. He has averaged five receptions for 81 yards a game while scoring twice. He’s also seen at least seven targets each outing. The Vikings have allowed the 4th fewest points a game.

Ryan Griffin (14-128-0) and C.J. Fiedorowicz (6-55-1) take on a Vikings team that hasn’t allowed a passing score to tight ends.

DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t scored the last two games. He’s caught just five of 14 passes for 60 yards the last two weeks. He’s still a must start. The Vikes have allowed one passing score to wideouts this season.

Whitney Mercilus has 8.5 sacks his last six games (playoffs included). Jadeveon Clowney has five sacks his last eight games.

Lamar Miller is averaging 107 yards from scrimmage as a Texan. He’s touched the ball at least 22 times each week this season. He’s still looking for his first score and is averaging just 3.8 YPC. He’s looking for a seam. The Vikings are allowing just 82.5 yards a game on the ground at 3.6 YPC.

Brock Osweiler takes on a defense that just shut down the Giants on MNF. The Vikes are allowing just 224 passing yards a game, have picked off eight passes, and have allowed a mere three touchdown passes while sacking the quarterback 15 times, second most in football. This is a terrible matchup for the Brock.

Jaelen Strong has six receptions for 46 yards. Stephen Anderson has five receptions for 40 yards.

Minnesota Vikings

Matt Asiata scored last week. He also produced six yards on six carries. He had eight total touches. The Texans have allowed six rushing scores this season.

Sam Bradford will take on the Texans #1 pass defense that has allowed one passing scores this season while limiting quarterbacks to a 53 percent completion rate. The Texans also rank 8th in DVOA. Bradford hasn’t beat himself avoiding the turnover in three games, but he’s also averaging just 240 passing yards while throwing for four scores.Stefon Diggs has caught just nine balls for 87 yards the last two games. He hasn’t scored in either game. He’s seen at least seven targets a game though he’s been nothing like the guy who caught an average of eight passes for 142 yards a game. The Texans have allowed the second fewest points a week to wideouts.

Charles Johnson has five receptions for 90 yards this season.

Jerick McKinnon touched the ball 21 times last week but lost a goaline look to Asiata. He carried the ball 18 times for 85 yards and a score while catching three balls for 10 yards leading to a 47 to 23 snaps advantage. The Texans are without J.J. Watt and are allowing 4.6 YPC and 125.3 yards on the ground, the 6th most in football. The Texans have allowed just eight receptions to runners.

Cordarrelle Patterson caught five balls for 38 yards last week. He also was on the field for 36 snaps, the most he’s been out there since Week 9 of 2014.

Kyle Rudolph continues to get it done. He caught five balls for 55 yards and a score in Week 4. In the three starts by Bradford he has scored three times, one each game, and he’s gone for 65 yards or a score in all four games this season. The Texans allow the third most points to tight ends a week.

Laquon Treadwell is still without a catch while Adam Thielen has caught 13 balls for 145 yards this season.



New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers



LAST MEETING: 11/9/14: Steelers 13 at Jets 20. New York QB Michael Vick passes for 2 TDs, including 67- yarder to WR T.J. Graham. Jets S Jaiquawn Jarrett has 2 INTs.




New York Jets

Eric Decker has a jacked shoulder. See The Fantasy Doctor breaking things down. Sounds like Decker is still holding out hope that he will be able to play, though it seems unlikely. He has six scores in seven games.

Quincy Enunwa still saw more than 92 percent of his snaps last week out of the slot, even with Decker hurt. He caught six passes for 60 yards last week, the third time in four outings he’s caught at least six passes (the other time out he saw 11 targets). He’s averaged six receptions on eight targets a week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has tossed two scores in 13-of-20 starts with the Jets. Unfortunately, he has just two passing scores in three games and has thrown nine picks in two outings as he’s looked completely inept. The Steelers are allowing a massive 316.5 passing yards a game, third worst in football and have just five sacks in four games.

Matt Forte is reportedly dealing with something in his lower body, but there have been no expressed concerns from the Jets for his availability this weekend. The last two weeks Forte has carried the ball 29 times for just 92 yards and he is averaging a mere 3.6 YPC though his total of 20 carries a week certainly keeps him extremely relevant.

Brandon Marshall has hit 100-yards in 6-of-10 games. He has scored 15 times in 20 games with the Jets. The Steelers have allowed just two scores to wideouts but they have allowed 65 grabs, second most in football.

Bilal Powell has been the Jets most effective running back the last two weeks. He’s only carried the ball eight times but produced 56 yards. He’s also caught 12-of-16 targets for 95 yards. The Steelers are allowing the 7th most points a week to runners.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Le’Veon Bell posted 144 yards as a runner and 178 yards from scrimmage last week. The Jets are allowing just 70 yards a game on the ground and one rushing score. They have allowed three receiving scores to the running back position.

Antonio Brown’s last six games at home: 10 receptions, 139 yards and 1.33 scores per game.

Sammie Coates has caught 13 balls for 282 yards, an average of 21.7 yards a catch. Eli Rogers is out with a toe injury which makes Coates an intriguing flyer.

Jessie James has caught just four of six passes the last two weeks for a mere 25 yards. He’s scored twice in three games. Xavier Gamble has a score and three catches for 45 yards this season.

Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 18 touchdown passes his last five games at home. In each outing he’s tossed at least three touchdown passes including five last week against the Chiefs. The Jets are allowing the 5th most points to signal callers this season including eight scores with just two picks.

Markus Wheaton has scored five times in his last eight games. He scored last week on his lone target and he now has two receptions for 32 yards in two games.

DeAngelo Williams has scored five times his last six at home including once last week. He has virtually no role, however, with Bell back.



Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos



LAST MEETING: 9/7/12: Broncos 21 at Falcons 27. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan passes for 219 yards & 2 TDs for 101.5 rating. Falcons WR Roddy White has 8 receptions for 102 yards & TD.




Atlanta Falcons

Devonta Freeman once again out snapped Tevin Coleman, 35 to 29, as he also out touched him 15 to 11 last week. On the year Freeman has seen 142 snaps, Coleman 118. On the season Freeman has 66 touches (55 runs), Coleman 53 (40 runs). Freeman has two touchdowns, Coleman four. Freeman has produced 101 yards from scrimmage a game, Coleman 77.6 yards. Coleman has decided to play this week though his workload isn’t locked and loaded because of the altitude. The Broncos have allowed three rushing scores, one receiving, to runners and the 13th fewest points a week to runners.

Dwight Freeney has eight sacks his last eight games.

Julio Jones caught 12 balls for 300 yards and a score last week. He’s produced 100-yards in 3-straight against the AFC. The Broncos have allowed the fewest points to wideouts this season including just one score.

Matt Ryan faces the Broncos who lead football with 17 sacks. They also have allowed just 0.5 passing scores a game and less than 170 passing yards a game. The Broncos allow the 5th fewest points to signal callers this season though Ryan has thrown for at least two scores each game and at least 334 yards in 3-of-4.

Mohamed Sanu has caught eight passes for 72 yards the last three games.

Jacob Tamme scored last week, his second in three games. Alas, he’s caught just five of six targets for 31 yards the last two games. Austin Hooper, from my hometown of San Mateo, also scored last week (42 yards). The Broncos have not allowed a tight end score.

Denver Broncos

C.J. Anderson has scored eight times his last nine games (playoffs included). He has at least one score each of his last five regular season games (seven total). He actually has 15 scores his last 16 games at home (playoffs included). He’s averaging just 3.5 YPC. Devontae Booker is averaging 4.0 YPC on 23 totes. The Falcons are allowing the 6th most points a week to runners including 28 grabs, the second most in football.

Virgil Green continues to miss time with a calf issue though he returned to practice and is hopeful of playing this week.  Jeff Heuerman has caught one pass for 19 and one for 29 yards in his two games. The Falcons allow more points to tight ends than any team in football.

Emmanuel Sanders has caught 17 balls for 205 yards and three scores his last two games as he’s really taken off after a slow start. He’s seen at least eight targets each game this season and 13 targets in each of the last two outings.

Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch? Siemian is dealing with a left shoulder issue, and though he is the starter when healthy, it’s unclear if he will be healthy enough to perform this week. The Falcons are allowing the most points to quarterbacks weekly and that includes a whopping 13 passing scores and 317 yards a game through the air.

Demaryius Thomas has caught at least five passes for 90 yards each of the last three games. He’s scored in his last two games. Alas, he’s yet to see more than seven targets in any game this season, a low total that won’t allow him to sustain his outward production.



Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys



LAST MEETING: 12/9/12: Cowboys 20 at Bengals 19. Dallas QB Tony Romo passes for 268 yards & TD. Cowboys K Dan Bailey converts GW 40-yard FG as time expires.




Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have scored a mere four touchdowns on 13 red zone trips this year.

Giovani Bernard has failed to carry the ball for more than 25 yards in a game. Bernard caught nine balls in Week 2 and has averaged six receptions per game. He’s averaging just 58.3 yards from scrimmage a game with just one score. The Cowboys are allowing the 7th fewest points a week to runners and just four catches a week.

Tyler Boyd has recorded 25-yards just once in four games. He still hasn’t scored.

Andy Dalton leads the AFC with 1,234 passing yards. He’s yet to throw two scores in a game and a total of just three passing scores all season. He’s only been picked off once in three games. He’s 8-1-1 with 23 scores his last 10 against the NFC. The Cowboys are allowing 264 yards a week in the air and have allowed seven touchdown passes.

Tyler Eifert (ankle) was hopeful of playing this week, but he’s out after suffering a setback. Tyler Kroft has caught three balls for 35 yards this season. C.J. Uzomah hasn’t scored but he has caught six passes for 76 yards the last two games. The Cowboys have allowed the third most points a week to tight ends.

A.J. Green caught 10 balls for 173 yards and a score. Green has seen at least 11 targets in 3-of-4 games and has gone for at least eight grabs and 77 yards in three of four. He has 11 scored his last 12 games against the NFC.

Jeremy Hill has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last 12 games (playoffs included). He has 23 rushing scores since the start of 2014, the most in football.  The Cowboys have allowed just two rushing scores this season and less than 95 yards a game, the 11th fewest yards a game on the ground.

Brandon LaFell has caught just 13 passes this season. He hasn’t scored. He hasn’t hit 45-yards in three games.

Dallas Cowboys

Dan Bailey has a back issue, so keep an eye on it. He’s hit 8-of-10 kicks this season with a long of 56 yards.

Cole Beasley has caught five balls in three of four games. He’s yet to score this season but he has produced at least 65 yards each game this season. He’s seen just 11 targets the last two games.

Dez Bryant (knee) may or may not play this week but he is not practicing early in the week. It seems unlikely he will suit up.

Brice Butler stepped up with the loss of Bryant caching five of nine targets for 41 yards and a score. The Bengals have allowed six passing scores to wideouts this season.

Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL in carries (94) and rushing yards (412). He’s touched the ball at least 20-times each game. He also saw 24 of the 36 touches out of the backfield last week. The Bengals have not allowed a rushing score this season and less than 98 rushing yards a game.

Alfred Morris has carried the ball five times each game. He’s averaging 4.0 YPC carry. He’s scored twice in three games.

Dak Prescott has thrown 131 passes without a pick, most by a rookie to begin his career. He’s thrown just three passing scores in four games though he does have two rushing scores. He’s also failed to throw for 250-yards in 3-of-4 and he’s averaged just 29 pass attempts the last three games. The Bengals are allowing the 12th most points a week to signal callers.

Terrance Williams scored last week. He’s caught 11 passes for an average of 42 yards a game through four outings.

Jason Witten caught seven passed for 47 yards last week. He’s gone for 47 yards in 3-of-4 games. He’s yet to score. The Bengals have allowed three scores to tight ends though only 10 receptions in four games.



Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams



LAST MEETING: 12/9/12: Rams 15 at Bills 12. Rams WR Brandon Gibson has 6 receptions for 100 yards, including GW 13-yard TD catch with 48 seconds remaining.




Buffalo Bills

Charles Clay has caught five passes in two of three games. He’s yet to score this season or to hit 50 receiving yards in a game. The Rams have allowed three scores to tight ends this season.

Mike Gillislee was on the field for seven snaps Weeks 1-2. The last two weeks, after OC Anthony Lynn took over, Gillislee has been on the field for 32 snaps.

LeSean McCoy has produced 224 yards from scrimmage with three scores the last two outings. McCoy is averaging four grabs a game while averaging 17 carries a game on the ground. The Rams are allowing the 12th most point to runners including four rushing scores.

Tyrod Taylor has thrown one score the last two games though he also has a rushing score. He’s failed to throw for 120 yards twice, and in four games his average effort is 193 passing yards and one score. He’s also thrown 30 or fewer passes three times and the Rams have allowed just five passing scores though 275 yards a game.

Sammy Watkins is out and that means Robert Woods takes over as the top wideout. Woods caught seven balls for 89 yards last week. The Rams are allowing the 6th most points a game to wide receivers including a league worst 69 receptions.

Los Angeles Rams

Tayvon Austin has caught 16 of 35 targets. Awful. He’s averaging four receptions for 40 yards a game. As a runner he’s carried the balls six times for 24 yards… all season. He has one score as a runner/receiver.

Kenny Britt caught four passes for 82 yards last week. He’s caught at least four passes each game while averaging 6.5 targets a game. He’s yet to score but he’s produced 70.3 yards a game and at least 67 yards in 3-of-4.

Aaron Donald was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week. He had 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble. He has 5.5 sacks his last five at home.

Todd Gurley caught a career best five passes last week for 49 yards after Benny Cunningham left the game with a hamstring injury. Gurley has just two rushing scores and is averaging just 54 yards a game on the ground. He’s still carried the ball at least 17 times each game this season while averaging 20.5 carries a game. He has just one run of 15-yards (it went for 16). The Bills are allowing 3.6 YPC and just 96 yards a game on the ground. They have allowed five rushing scores.

Lance Hendricks caught give balls last week and now has two games under 20-yards and two games over 50. The Bills haven’t allowed a score to tight ends and permit the 8th fewest points a week to the position.

Case Keenum has won 5-of-7 starts. He threw for 266 yards and two scores last week, a second straight game with two passing scores. He’s also thrown just one pick in three games even though he’s failed to record 240 passing yards in 3-of-4 games. The Bills are allowing the 4th fewest points to signal callers this season and just two passing scores.

Brian Quick scored twice last week and has now scored in back-to-back games. He’s only caught four passes the last two outings though.



San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders



LAST MEETING: 12/24/15: Chargers 20 at Raiders 23 (OT). Oakland QB Derek Carr passes for 204 yards & TD. Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski kicks GW 31-yard FG in OT.




San Diego Chargers

Travis Benjamin has caught at least four passes all four games. He’s scored twice, though both were in the same game. No team in football allows more points to the wideout each week than the Raiders though Benjamin has seen an average of just seven targets a week and never more than eight.

Antonio Gates seems unlikely to play yet again this week though he was spotted at practice early in the week leaving some hope he plays. Hunter Henry has gone for 5-72 and 4-61-1 the last two games. The Raiders allow the 12th most points a week to ends and have allowed one touchdown to ends.

Melvin Gordon was in on 89 percent of the touches out of the Chargers backfield last week. He’s scored six rushing touchdowns in just four games, at least one each week, though he’s averaging just 3.2 YPC. For more see this Daily Dive Video. The Raiders are allowing an AFC worst 134.5 yards a game on the ground and an NFL worst 5.1 YPC.

Melvin Ingram has 9.5 sacks and two forced fumbles his last nine outings.

Dontrelle Inman went for 100-yards last week for the first time. He caught just five passes the first three games before going for seven, on 11 targets, last week.  He’s on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, the most amongst wideouts on the club.

Philip Rivers has a 97.9 QB Rating the last nine meetings. He’s thrown for just two scores the last two games but more than 320 passing yards each outing. The Raiders can be beaten through the air as they are allowing the 3rd most points a game and a league worst 326 yards (eight scores in four games too). The Raiders have the 4th worst defense in football according to DVOA.

Tyrell Williams has caught 11 passes the last two games on 17 targets. He’s gone for 60-yards in three of four games. He’s scored once this season.

Oakland Raiders

Derek Carr threw for four touchdowns last week. For more check out this Big-3 Video.  He’s thrown nine scores against one pick this season. The Chargers allow a big time total of 290 passing yards a game, but they have also picked off six passes. The Chargers are allowing the 6th most points to signal callers this season.

Amari Cooper caught five balls for 132 yards and a score in the meeting last October. Cooper is averaging five receptions for 79.5 yards a game after averaging 4.5 receptions and 66.9 yards a game as a rookie. The negative is that Amari hasn’t been able to score as of yet, even with nine or more targets in 3-of-4 games. Cooper could eat against the Chargers now that Jason Verrett is out (knee injury).

Michael Crabtree scored three times last week. He scored in both meetings last season. He has seven receptions in three of four outings and in each of those efforts he’s gone for at least 87 yards. The Chargers are allowing the 10th fewest points a week to wideouts, though four scores in four games.

Khalil Mack has 11 sacks his last 10 games.

Latavius Murray touched the ball just 10 times last week with 45 percent of the backfield touches. Meanwhile, DeAndre Washington touched the ball eight times for 36 percent of the workload. Murray has seen his touch percentage decline each week of the regular season though Murray still led the way with snaps on 54 percent of the players. Murray has scored in 2-straight against the Chargers, and he’s gone for 100-yards from scrimmage with a score his last two at home. The Chargers have allowed seven rushing scores, the most in the AFC. They have allowed only 82.5 yards a game on the ground though they have permitted runners to catch 36 passes, the most in football.

Seth Roberts has scored in 2-straight games and three of four. He has only 10 receptions for 83 yards this season.

Clive Walford faces the Chargers who are allowing the 8th most points a week to tight ends. He’s caught just four passes for 50 yards the last two weeks and he’s failed to go for 30-yards in 3-of-4.



New York Giants at Green Bay Packers *



LAST MEETING: 11/17/13: Packers 13 at Giants 27. New York QB Eli Manning passes for 279 yards & TD. Giants WR Victor Cruz has 8 receptions for 110 yards.




New York Giants

Odell Beckham is a disaster. If he caught two passes a week for 21 yards he wouldn’t even be in the league (he does have seven receptions in 2-of-3 games). He lost his cool yet again, and it’s seemingly too easy to get into his head. He hasn’t scored in four games but takes on a Packers club that has allowed Diggs to go 9-182-1 and Jones 6-205-2. If he doesn’t eat this week it’s panic time.

Victor Cruz 5-of-9 targets for 50 yards last week to lead the wideouts. He’s either had a score or 50 yards in all the games this season. Cruz has appeared on 95.5 percent of the snaps this season seeing the exact same number of snaps as Shepard and just 11 fewer snaps the ODB.

Larry Donnell has done nothing this season and suffered a concussion last week. Will Tye ended up catching 4-of-6 passes for 43 yards in Donnell’s absence. The Packers have allowed the 6th most points a week to tight ends.

Rashad Jennings didn’t play in Week 4 cause of his thumb issue. Here’s now the backfield played out: Bobby Rainey 30 snaps, Orleans Darkwa 23 snaps, Paul Perkins 15 snaps. Perkins carried the ball twice for eight yards. He caught two balls for 72 yards. Darkwa carried the ball 12 times for 48 yards and a score (he has scored his last two games). He seems likely to lose work once Jennings is back. Rainey was the guy. He carried the ball four times for 22 yards but he caught 7-of-9 targets for 43 yards as he took on the Shane Vereen role. Note that last week Perkins led the way with 80 yards of offense, followed by Rainey with 65 and Darkwa with 48. The unit faces the Packers #1 run defense that has allowed one rushing score and less than 43 yards a game on the ground.

Eli Manning has thrown for an average of 326 passing yards the last three games. Unfortunately, he has just one passing scores and three picks in that time. The Packers are allowing the 4th most points to signal callers this season including 307 passing yards a week while they have picked off two passes in three games.

Sterling Shepard has caught 17 passes the last three games. Though he has nine grabs on 14 targets the last two games he’s only produced 103 yards. He’s scored twice in four games but is still averaging less than seven targets a game. The Packers have allowed the third most points a game to wide receivers.

Green Bay Packers

Davante Adams scored in his last game and has scored twice in three games. He’s yet to catch more than three passes and he’s been under 30 yards the last two games.

Randall Cobb has been a disaster. He’s caught six balls the last two weeks and has been held under 60-yards all three games. He’s also failed to score. The Giants have allowed the 5th most catches to wideouts.

Eddie Lacy has run for 100-yards in 3-of-4 games at home. That includes his 100-yard effort in his last game. He’s yet to record a rushing scores though he is averaging 5.0 YPC. James Starks has touched the ball 15 times in three games. The Giants are allowing the 8th fewest points a week to runners.

Jordy Nelson has scored in 3-straight games – four total scores. The Giants have allowed three scores to wideouts. Nelson has seen at least seven targets on his way to catching at least five passes each game.

Aaron Rodgers threw for four scores in his last game with only 205 passing yards. Are you aware that Rodgers has failed to hit 215 passing yards in 3-straight games? He’s only been picked off once though he has thrown for seven scores while rushing for two in three games. The Giants have yet to pick off a pass while permitting just four passing scores.

Richard Rodgers scored in his last game and Jared Cook won’t play this week (ankle). The Giants have allowed one score to tight ends this season.



Monday, October 10, 2016



Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers



LAST MEETING: 1/3/16: Buccaneers 10 at Panthers 38: Carolina QB Cam Newton passes for 293 yards with 2 TDs & adds 2 rush TDs. Panthers WR Devin Funchess has 120 receiving yards & TD.




Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cameron Brate takes on a Panthers club that has allowed the 5th most points a week to tight ends. Brate has caught give balls in 2-straight games as he has seen an impressive 18 targets, scoring twice.

Mike Evans went for 99 yards in the last matchup. He’s also scored in 3-of-4 games. He’s seen an average of 12.5 targets a game.

Vincent Jackson went 10-147-1 in the last matchup. He’s not that guy anymore. He’s failed to catch five passes or to reach 50-yards in any game this season. He also hasn’t scored.

Adam Humphries has no scored this season. He’s caught six passes in 2-of-3 games though last week he caught 1-of-4 targets for a mere four yards. On the year he’s averaging five grabs and 51 yards a game.

Doug Martin is unlikely to play this week cause of his hamstring issue. He will look to return after the bye and be back out there Week 7.

Charles Sims might have his role reduced this week even if Doug Martin is still out. "Maybe we’ve got to go back and really fit the roles into the players’ specific strengths in the run game," HC Dirk Koetter said. "We definitely just can’t keep doing the same stuff, because that’s not working." Sure sounds like Jacquizz Rodgers will be given a shot at some work (don’t really know why). Sims played 41-of-73 snaps last week and is now dealing with a knee issue. He should lead the backfield if healthy this week, and in the last matchup he produced 99 yards from scrimmage. He’s carried the ball 28 times for 83 yards the last two games with a score. Rodgers has carried the ball13 times for 69 yards this season. The Panthers are allowing just 90-yards a week on the ground at a mere 3.5 YPC.

Jameis Winston is opposed by the Panthers who, after last week’s beat down, are allowing the 7th most points to signal callers this season. Winston has eight scores, third in the NFC, a completely misleading mark. Winston has not played good football on his way to a mere 58 percent completion percentage with eight interceptions and two fumbles in four games. Ghastly.

Carolina Panthers

Kelvin Benjamin is doing just fine folks including four scores in four games. See this Daily Dive Video where I explain how you’re nuts if you are bitching about his effort.  He’s also caught 14 passes for 196 yards in two meetings with the Bucs. The Bucs have allowed an unconscionable nine scores in four games to wideouts.

Devin Funchess caught seven balls for 120 yards and a score in the last matchup. He has five catches for 84 yards in four games this season.

Ted Ginn hasn’t scored yet. He has caught just eight passes for an average of 33 yards a game.

Cam Newton suffered a concussion last week and he has an extra day to heal before this tilt. In the last meeting Newton had two passing scores and two rushing scores. If he can’t go Derek Anderson would take over. Anderson is 18-for-24 for 175 yards and two scores this season (he was also picked off twice). The Bucs have picked off just one pass while allowing nine touchdowns.

Greg Olsen leads the Panthers in receiving. He’s caught at least five passes for 64 yards in all four games. He’s also scored twice in three games. He’s been targeted a whopping 23 times the last two games and has seen at least eight targets in four games. The Bucs allow the 4thfewest points a week to tight ends.

Jonathan Stewart is out yet again leaving the backfield to Cameron Artis-Payne (six touches last week), Fozzy Whitaker (12 touches) and Mike Tolbert (two touches). Whittaker earned six yards on the ground but he caught nine balls for 86 yards as a pass catcher to rack up 60 percent of the backfield touches after they fell behind the Falcons. CAP is the early down back with Fozzy being the third down back that is more dependent on game flow. The Bucs are allowing a mere 3.3 YPC a carry and just 96 yards a game on the ground, though four scores rushing.


Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).