For fantasy baseball managers and daily fantasy sports (DFS) players looking to gain an edge, analyzing the MLB pitching matchups is the most critical step to locking in a winning lineup. Evaluating historical data, current form, and underlying sabermetrics helps distinguish elite plays from roster-killing traps. This breakdown provides the top arms to target, bats to fade, and complete projections for Sunday, June 28, 2026.

By analyzing the latest visual data, team schedules, and key metrics, we break down today's probable MLB pitchers to target and avoid.

 

 

Best MLB Pitching Matchups Today

Selecting the right starters requires balancing safety, strikeout potential, and the quality of the opposing lineup. Based on the scheduled MLB pitching matchups today, these primary targets stand out across major categories. Our MLB Starting Lineups page includes key data points, matchup statistics, split stats, daily projections and Batter vs Pitcher data as well. After examining it all, here are some thought on suggested starting pitchers: 

Safest Pitchers to Use

Pitchers with Good Strikeout Matchups

Pitchers Opposing Weakest Offenses

Sometimes the greatest asset in MLB pitching matchups today is simply the team stepping into the batter's box. These pitchers draw the most favorable offensive matchups on the board:

  • Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles: Takes the mound against Washington, an offense lacking significant isolated power (ISO) metrics this season.
  • Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox: Faces a Kansas City roster that struggles to generate consistent run support on the road.
  • Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers: Gets a slight bump at home against a top-heavy Houston squad that can look vulnerable when its bottom order slumps.
  • Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins: Draws a favorable home environment against Colorado, a team whose offensive metrics drop significantly outside of their high-altitude home stadium.
  • Luinder Avila, Kansas City Royals: Opposes the White Sox, a lineup sitting near the bottom of the league in team on-base percentage (OBP).
 

 

DFS Pitchers For DraftKings & FanDuel

Selecting the right MLB DFS pitchers requires balancing salary against projected baseline value. Today's MLB probable starters today provide excellent opportunities across both major platforms. These rankings balance floor, upside, and projected value metrics based off of our daily fantasy projections.

Top 5 DFS Pitchers to Use

Top 3 DraftKings Pitcher Picks

  • Chris Sale ($10,500): The clear top tier choice on DraftKings, providing maximum safety and punch-out upside.
  • Gavin Williams ($8,200): A mid-tier salary saver facing a highly strikeout-prone Mariners offense.
  • Connor Prielipp ($6,800): An excellent second-SP option for tournament play against the road-weary Rockies.

Top 3 FanDuel Pitcher Picks

  • Robbie Ray ($9,800): A premium point-per-dollar option on FanDuel, where standalone quality starts and raw strikeout totals heavily dictate the leaderboards.
  • Mitch Keller ($9,100): Ideal for cash games, offering a stable floor and low volatility.
  • Hunter Brown ($8,600): A strong option for targeting a cheap win bonus on the road.

Take the opportunity to compare with more Fantasy Alarm content such as the MLB DFS Playbook and MLB DFS Optimal Lineups. 

Highest Strikeout Upside Pitchers Today

To target elite tier performances, projecting best MLB pitchers today requires evaluating individual execution alongside opponent tendencies. The table below highlights key metrics, including swinging-strike percentage (SwStr%).

PitcherTeamPitcher K%Opponent K%SwStr%
Chris SaleATL29.4%23.2%14.5%
Robbie RaySFG21.9%24.1%11.8%
Gavin WilliamsCLE25.6%26.5%13.1%
Kyle BradishBAL26.1%22.8%12.4%
Drew RasmussenTB24.8%21.9%11.9%

Strikeouts are important and there’s nothing worse than streaming in a starting pitcher with no strikeout upside. For another edge, you should include our all-new daily strikeout props data table for your research, not just for betting but for DFS contests where strikeout really matter most such as on DraftKings. 

 

 

Weather Concerns for Today’s MLB Games

Checking real-time updates on environmental conditions remains essential before locking in rosters. Tracking wind velocity, moisture, and extreme temperatures can dictate whether a matchup favors pitching dominance or offensive explosions. Our MLB Weather Forecast page has everything you need. Below are the weather situations that matter most for fantasy and DFS.

  • Wind Impact: St. Louis and Detroit feature sustained crosswinds reaching up to 15 mph. Strong crosswinds can alter the movement profiles of breaking pitches, helping pitchers who rely heavily on sweeping sliders.
  • Air Density and Temperature: High heat and oppressive humidity in St. Louis (climbing past 90°F) thins out the air density. The distance of the ball traveling increases significantly under these warm conditions, transforming Routine fly balls into home runs. Expect a slight boost to bats and a tougher environment for pitchers to limit damage.

Risky MLB Pitchers To Avoid Today

High-Reward / High-Risk Options to Start

  • Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants: His elevated walk rate introduces extreme volatility. However, his ability to clean up jams with consecutive strikeouts makes him a high-reward option for tournament play.

High-Risk Options to Sit

  • Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees: Facing a moderately disciplined Boston lineup at Fenway Park presents an immediate trap. His recent struggles avoiding hard contact make him an easy bench candidate.

DFS & Betting Fades

  • Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers: Stepping into Toronto to face a surging Blue Jays offense. The Vegas lines heavily favor the home side, making Rocker an avoid across all betting and DFS structures.
  • Aaron Civale, Athletics: Drawing a brutal road matchup against the Angels. Civale's lack of elite velocity leaves him highly vulnerable to giving up multiple home runs.
 

 

Today’s MLB Probable Pitchers by Game

Here is the complete list of scheduled matchups and confirmed starting arms for June 28, 2026:

Daily MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings for Fantasy Baseball Streaming & DFS

PlayerTeamMatchupKey StatsMatchup Rating
Chris SaleAtlanta BravesSan Francisco GiantsWe never sit our aces, right?1
Drew RasmussenTampa Bay RaysArizona DiamondbacksDefinite ace material here.1
Jesus LuzardoPhiladelphia PhilliesNew York MetsShould throw like an ace with the Mets on tap.1
Hunter BrownHouston AstrosDetroit TigersLooked fine for first start back. Excited to watch him build back up1
Kyle BradishBaltimore OriolesWashington NationalsHis breaking stuff looks fantastic right now.1
Brandon WoodruffMilwaukee BrewersChicago CubsStruck out 10 Reds in his first start back. Show it to me against a better lineup and I'll put him back in the top tier.2
Gavin WilliamsCleveland GuardiansSeattle MarinersFastball looked insane last time out. Let's hope the rest follows.2
Carlos RodonNew York YankeesBoston Red SoxStill a work in progress. Doesn't have all his pitches working just yet.2
Emmet SheehanLos Angeles DodgersSan Diego PadresHe's better than the numbers say. Padres are a soft start2
Robbie RaySan Francisco GiantsAtlanta BravesTough matchup here but I'd fish for some strikeouts.2
Sonny GrayBoston Red SoxNew York YankeesYankees have been spotty against righties so I'll lean into the veteran here.2
Emerson HancockSeattle MarinersCleveland GuardiansHe's had a rough go of it lately, but the Guardians lack punch.2
Casey MizeDetroit TigersHouston AstrosMight be able to get a QS out of him here with such a righty-heavy lineup.3
Brady SingerCincinnati RedsPittsburgh PiratesI don't trust what I saw last time out, but the Pirates, man. They can be had here.3
Anthony KayChicago White SoxKansas City RoyalsLooked real solid last time out and the Royals are struggling.3
Merrill KellyArizona DiamondbacksTampa Bay RaysProbably get some quality innings in this matchup. Maybe even a QS.3
Connor PrielippMinnesota TwinsColorado RockiesHe hasn't looked good at all, but the Rockies are terrible.3
Mitch KellerPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati RedsProbably good for a QS and some strikeouts against the Reds in PNC Park.3
Luinder AvilaKansas City RoyalsChicago White SoxHe's been fine, but the White Sox bats have gotten hot again.3
Kumar RockerTexas RangersToronto Blue jaysLast start was really good, but the jays are not the type to go fishing so don't expect the whiffs again.3
Michael KingSan Diego PadresLos Angeles DodgersLooked a little better last time out, but I'm not inclined to use him against the Dodgers.3
Shane BieberToronto Blue JaysTexas RangersSuper rusty in his first start back from injury. Makes me nervous to use him.3
Kyle LeahySt. Louis CardinalsMiami MarlinsI mean...if you REALLY need the innings.3
Tyler PhillipsMiami MarlinsSt. Louis CardinalsThere's some upside here but not enough to lock him in.4
Aaron CivaleAthleticsLos Angeles AngelsEven outside of Sacramento, I'm not using him.4
Sam AldegheriLos Angeles AngelsAthleticsProbably not.4
Zack LittellWashington NationalsBaltimore OriolesDefinitely not.4
Vince VelasquezChicago CubsMilwaukee BrewersNo way in hell.4
Ryan FeltnerColorado RockiesMinnesota TwinsYou're kidding, right?4
Tobias MyersNew York MetsPhiladelphia PhilliesIs he the opener?4