2021 MLB Draft Guide: Starting Pitchers

The available pool of top-level starting pitchers has been suffering depletion over the past several seasons, due to several factors developing in baseball. Among those influences: the increased use and reliance on middle relievers, the perception that starters begin to lose effectiveness the second (or infrequently due to pitch count limits, third) time through the batting order, the increased use of the “opener” and “headliner” to start the game, as well as the trend developing with teams employing a six-man rotation (as opposed to the five-man rotation of recent times…anyone remember when four starters was considered normal?). All of these trends and more to develop as the game changes operate to highlight just how rare an ace SP is in the realm of fantasy baseball these days. Not to say that there are not serviceable arms available populating the draft boards, but true “wind ‘em up and forget ‘em” SP1s are becoming a precious commodity in the current realm.

When evaluating the starting pitching menu, the first concern should be which type of league settings are you drafting for when you set up your rotation? A traditional 5x5 Roto league emphasizes the four scoring categories assigned to the pitching portion of the stat sheet: Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP (naturally omitting Saves). A Head-to-Head Points league, on the other hand, employs the counting stats, assigningan extreme significance to Wins, but also highlight the importance of Quality Starts, Innings Pitched and Strikeouts, while emphasizing the negative impact of Losses, Hits and Walks allowed on a pitcher’s performance.Another scoring system is the H2H Category league setup, which looks to weekly performance in both counting (W/QS, K) and ratio (ERA, WHIP, K/9, etc.) statistical categories.

No matter what system your league employs, as a fantasy owner it is essential that you identify the players that can provide the best return for your squads. To aid in that process, below are several tables that present the top projected producers in the four roto categories, followed by a list of the top 30 (actually, had to go with 31 so as not to cut off the last two who are neck and neck statistically speaking) SPs as determined by projections compiled prior to spring training camps opening up.

Wins/QS

Wins and Quality Starts are an ephemeral stat to shoot for when selecting a starting pitching arm for your fantasy roster. First of all, the starter needs to last through the fifth inning for a win and another whole inning to quality for a QS. This is becoming quite the rarity with pitch count limitations and the aforenoted reliance on managers to turn the ball over to their collection of middle relief hurlers in the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. Add in the need to for the starter’s team to have the lead when he leaves the mound, and for the team to maintain that lead to deliver the W, and that is whole lot beyond the SPs control. The QS is both tougher to obtain due to the additional IP required to qualify, but more is within the pitcher’s control, in that he needs to be effective at limiting baserunners and not giving up an inordinate number of runs to rack up his QS. The top 25 candidates for projected wins are set forth in the following table, ranked by expected number of victories in 2021.

Note the placement of the Mets’ deGrom at 17^th in the list. He is considered by most analysts as one of the top three aces in the game today, but his team and his past unlucky history reduces his status in this grouping. Just because he might not provide you with the same top notch win totals of Bieber, Cole and Scherzer, do not make the mistake of not selecting him as your ace if he is there in the early two rounds of your draft, especially if he falls in round 2.

Strikeouts

Unlike the Win/Quality Start stat, Ks are much more an element that the individual mound ace can control. Whether due to a nearly-unhittable heater, or the ability to use his command to change location and speed to fool opposing batters, it is essentially the SP that determines how many outs are a result of collecting three strikes from a hitter. High strikeout producers, however, suffer another problem in that their pitch counts elevate quickly, as they do have to throw a certain number of balls past the hitters to accumulate the swings and misses. Still, high strikeout pitchers tend to have other enviable stats, especially in the ratio statistical categories as their tendency to keep the offense off the basepaths results in generally lower ERA and WHIP numbers. Below are the top projected K producers for the coming season.

Among these arms are some intriguing youngsters, namely Corbin Burnes (MIL), Zac Gallen (ARI), Tarik Skubal ()">Tarik Skubal ()">Tarik Skubal ()">Tarik Skubal ()">Tarik Skubal ()">Tarik Skubal ()">Tarik Skubal ()">Tarik Skubal (DET) and Jesús Luzardo (OAK). All should be available in the mid to late rounds of drafts, especially the Tiger youngster Skubal who will be competing for a spot in the rotation this spring. Oakland is once again developing young arms that have superb potential to shine on the bump, with the 23-year-old Luzardo being joined by Frankie Montas and A.J. Puk as pitchers to target and then hope they stay healthy enough all season to live up to their potential.

ERA

ERA is a stat that is not necessarily favored for purposes of evaluating a pitcher’s personal performance, since the results once the ball is hit is frequently beyond a pitcher’s control, and a porous defense can inflate this stat unduly. Of course, superb defensive prowess supporting a pitcher can have the reverse effect, preventing earned runs that in an average situation would be charged to the man toeing the rubber. It is useful, though, as a general measuring stick for a SP, as those who pitch well generally do keep their ERAs under the 4.00 level, despite who is playing behind them on the field. Below are the top 35 SPs projected to provide their owners with overall excellent earned run tightening while on the hill, all projected as sub-3.75 ERA producers.

WHIP

There are some names here that appear on the lists in this article for the first time, namely Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet of the Padres, Sean Manaea , another Athletics’ hurler to target in drafts this year, Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays who became a late-round darling last season. Urquidy and Urias (double Us, quite alliterative) are near the bottom of the table, but still offer superb sub-1.21 WHIP number potential.

Top Projected SPs for 2021

This group of SPs were cultivated by employing the following set of projection parameters:

More than 90 IP

More than 9 Wins

Better than an 8 K/9 rate

Sub-4.00 ERA

Sub-1.25 WHIP

There is little doubt early on this year that the top three here are the closest thing that exists in fantasy baseball to sure things. Cole, Bieber and deGrom are the aces it is suggested you target in the first round to build your rotation, and in fact your team around.

Heading into the next 10 arms, Giolito, who came into his own in 2019, and newly acquired Lance Lynn provide a strong 1-2 top end to a dominant five-man rotation on the south side of Chitown for the Pale Hose. Scherzer and Kershaw may have dropped from the top ace position as they age, but neither is unworthy of selection as a SP1 if you wait a bit to take your first SP in the draft.

As far as ADP values in this list, John Means is currently sporting an extremely inviting ADP of 212 and going further into the value section of early drafts, Red Sox SP Nathan Eovaldi is currently sitting at 247, or a 21^st round option in 12-team leagues.

Good news is on the horizon for SPs, too, with the announcement that MLB is going to work to deaden the baseballs used in play, to drive down the plethora of dingers that has been occurring the past few seasons. Also, the defensive shift tendency is not departing as of yet, helping to reduce the number of balls that make it through the standard infield defensive setup. In the past, the preferred draft strategy was to wait on starting pitching, and grab the best offensive players available. Nowadays, however, you would do well to target one or two (or three, as injuries, COVID and the 10-day IR list are always looming) aces to set up your pitching staff from the outset of the draft process, especially in H2H leagues where the value of SPs is inflated due to the importance placed on wins and/or QS production.

Keep your eye on the developments in spring training, as rotations will surely be adjusted due to the aforementioned injury potential and the continual development of young arms. While there are plenty of mid-tier SPs to choose from in the mid to later rounds, and once the season opens, on the wire or in free agency, having that solid foundation to your pitching staff is reassurance that all the wheels will not come off the bus during the course of the long MLB and fantasy season. As ever, good luck and godspeed in your fantasy endeavors.