NFL Target Analysis: Week 11

If you’ve been reading this article all season, first of all, let me say thank you. You will probably notice that many of the names in the Week 11 Target Analysis have been frequent topics over the last handful of weeks. Most of these players are talented wide receivers who have seen inconsistent targets all season long. They are mostly borderline starts each week, and getting a grasp on what to do with them going forward is especially important. We have some new names on the list as well, but they too combine tantalizing talent with the ability to completely disappear in a given week.

• I will admit I was one of the people who was worried about Kenny Golladay ’s fantasy prospects with Marvin Jones out. Golladay had a career-high 14 targets Sunday, catching eight of them for 113 yards and a touchdown. It would be easy to look at these numbers and think they were mostly due to Jones’s absence, but I don’t think that is the case at all. Golladay had 13 targets last week against the Bears, and if anything, he probably wouldn’t have had to face James Bradbury quite so often if Jones was healthy. Golladay made four eye-popping plays against Carolina, including the touchdown catch that put the Lions up in the fourth quarter. He might be an every-week starter just yet, but he is awfully close.
• Unlike Kenny Golladay , Tyler Boyd has been far more adversely affected by an injury to the other starting wide receiver. Boyd had 11 targets Sunday but managed to catch just four for 71 yards. That gives Boyd seven catches for 136 yards and zero touchdowns in two games since A.J. Green went down. Most of Boyd’s targets in Week 11 didn’t have a chance because he couldn’t get any separation. He caught a long pass in the second quarter in which he probably should have been called for offensive pass interference, and his second catch came on a wide receiver screen. His third catch was about three yards deep against a zone coverage, and he actually managed to get away from the cornerback on his fourth catch. You could certainly do worse than three catches for 65 yards each week, but I won’t feel good about playing Boyd until A.J. Green returns.
• D.J. Moore - People who want D.J. Moore to be an every week starter will probably be disappointed, especially now that we are basically through the bye weeks. Moore set a new high with eight targets Sunday, but he had just five targets last week. I suspect Cam Newton will continue to spread the ball around all season, which limits Moore’s fantasy value.
• Jordan Reed - I finally gave up on Jordan Reed last week, telling pretty much everyone who asked in Sunday's chat not to play him. It is fair to wonder how much of Sunday's performance to attribute to Reed as opposed to Houston's defense, but at the very least, Reed probably needs to remain owned in all leagues.
• Tre’Quan Smith- Most of what I wrote about D.J. Moore also applies to Tre’Quan Smith. Smith has shown a higher ceiling and lower floor, especially in terms of targets, but I will probably have them ranked right around each other most weeks. You could certainly argue Smith earned more playing time with his play Sunday, but even if that is the case, he will still be fourth in line for touches for the Saints.
• Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron - Both Indianapolis tight ends were the victims of game script. Indianapolis got up big early, and for the first time this season, the short touchdowns didn't go to the tight ends. I'll probably have Doyle ahead of Ebron going forward, though I wouldn't argue with anyone who thinks Ebron is the better bet to score touchdowns.
• Demaryius Thomas - I was involved in a text chain with a few buddies arguing who was the better fantasy play in Week 11, Thomas or Eric Ebron . It turns out we were all wrong. Thomas wasn’t even targeted Sunday, and while game script probably played a role in that, so did Keke Coutee ’s availability. I think Thomas is too talented to be dropped, but I completely get it if you’ve simply had enough of owning him after the season he’s had.
• Stefon Diggs - Diggs had a season-high 18 targets Sunday, giving him double-digit targets in seven of his nine games this season. Diggs had 11 targets total in his other two games, so he isn’t completely matchup proof, but I don’t know how you could ever sit him.
• Amari Cooper - Dak Prescott only threw the ball 32 times, with seven of those targets going to Ezekiel Elliott . That’s a recipe for staying in a lot of ballgames but not for Amari Cooper to produce any fantasy points. Cooper did have a target in the end zone that might have been caught if the throw was better, but that’s cold comfort for anyone who started Cooper. The Cowboys did a slightly better job getting the ball to Cooper in the second half, so hopefully that carries over going forward.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling had just three targets Thursday. Even with Jimmy Graham breaking his thumb in the second quarter, Valdes-Scantling was nothing more than an afterthought in this offense. Thursday’s game was the fourth time this season Rodgers threw 30 times or fewer, and on those days, it’s going to be awfully hard for Valdes-Scantling to produce for fantasy.
• Corey Davis - Davis has been consistently inconsistent, but if Marcus Mariota cannot go in Week 12, that would make it easier to bench Davis. That being said, all of the people who tried telling you the Titans’ offense was fixed after they lit up the Patriots last week were probably wrong. I think I’m benching him either way, though he might be worth a shot in a GPP if Mariota starts.
• Golden Tate - Tate’s line from Sunday was pretty pedestrian: five catches on eight targets for 48 yards. That being said, he led his new team in all three of those categories. It appears he has already surpassed Nelson Agholor in the Eagles’ pass game, and I remain hopeful he has more upside that what he has shown in two games with Philadelphia. Given the choice, I would still rather bench him in Week 12, but I think I will still have him ahead of everyone on this list aside from Stefon Diggs and Kenny Golladay .
• In a game in which Jared Goff threw the ball 49 times for 413 yards and a touchdown, Josh Reynolds and Tyler Higbee had eight and seven targets, respectively. Both players should probably be owned, especially in deeper leagues, but it is possible we just saw the best game of the season for both players.