2023 Fantasy Football Draft Guide: NFL Targets Totem Pole

There are so many advanced metrics that help us hammer out our fantasy football rankings and, hopefully, win our leagues. But, at the end of the day, there is one stat that rules them all. Targets. Even for running backs, passing or receiving targets have mathematically been proven to be more valuable than a carry. In my own tight end research, it’s become clear that being a top two target on the team is crucial to both upside and consistency. That’s been a key to use finding fantasy football sleepers year after year after year in the later parts of fantasy football ADP. And one of our best secret weapons has been the Target Totem Pole.

The concept is simple. We take every team and rank the players in terms of who we believe will get the most targets. Then, we assign a color-coded “confidence level” based on certain thresholds which help us deal with the uncertainty. The top threshold is set at 120+ targets as every WR1 in full PPR except Jaylen Waddle (114) got 120 or more targets. The next threshold is set at 100+ targets as every WR2 except Cooper Kupp (95) got 100+ targets. From there we weigh whether the players are likely to get 100, whether it’s possible, whether it’s unlikely, or if it’s essentially impossible. Here is the color code and key for what each position in the grid.

If you are interested in hearing the thought process behind this grid, Howard Bender, Britt Flinn, and I recorded a full show here where we discussed the grid in terms of areas of uncertainty and where we agreed or disagreed. And that will help you decide where you agree or disagree to possibly game your own advantage. But, without further ado, here is the grid.

2023 Fantasy Football Targets Totem Pole

Totem Pole Notes

• In 2022 here is how the target distribution shook out
  • Three players with 100+ targets: 1 team
  • Two players with 100+ targets: 8 teams
  • One player with 100+ targets: 15 teams
  • Zero players with 100+ targets: 6 teams
• The only team where three players got 100+ targets was the Minnesota Vikings. It’s worth noting that, in the games after the TJ Hockenson trade, Adam Thielen was not on a 100+ target pace. So an argument could be made that they would not have had three players finish with 100+ targets if Hock was there for the full season.
• Highly consolidated targets for teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, Eagles, etc. make the top options fairly safe bets. 
• Uncertainty for teams like the Texans, Panthers, Giants, Bears, Patriots, and Packers leave room for upside with some later picks.
• There are only three tight ends we project to lead their team in targets. There are eight set within the top two and only 16 that are yellow or better.
• As usual, there are very few running backs with a shot at 100+ targets. Alvin Kamara will depend heavily on a potential suspension.