Week 7 opened Thursday in Chicago, where the Bears held off the Patriots 30-24 in a game that saw Drake Maye throw for 321 yards and Luther Burden catch passes for 130. Now the Bills, Jaguars, Chargers, and Commanders are on bye, which leaves 13 games, and if you're hunting for the best NFL games to watch this weekend, building a DFS lineup, or just trying to figure out which NFL games this week deserve your couch time, we've got the first regular season game in France at 9:30 AM, a 6-0 team on the road in Atlanta, and a Sunday night revenge game in Seattle. Big spread? Somebody's about to get run off the field. Tight line? Strap in. Total pushing past 50? Every fantasy manager I know already has three tabs open on it.
Here's the whole slate, my Game of the Week, the division fights worth your attention, the live dogs I actually like, and where the fantasy and DFS value is hiding.
Best NFL Games to Watch This Week
Five games separate themselves from the pack as the best NFL games to watch this week, and it's not just the number on the spread. Unbeaten records, quarterback injuries, and one very pointed revenge storyline all factor in.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks (Sunday Night Football): The unbeaten Chiefs visit the defending Super Bowl champs, and the number is Seattle -3 with a 42.5 total. Kansas City is 5-0 after holding the Chargers to six points, and Kenneth Walker has the league's best rushing average at 5.51 yards per carry. He's also going back to Lumen Field for the first time since winning Super Bowl MVP there, and the Seahawks never made him an offer. Seattle is 3-3 and has lost two straight, with Sam Darnold throwing two picks in a 17-14 overtime loss at Denver.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): The 49ers are 6-0 and Brock Purdy owns the league's best team passer rating at 118.1, with 14 touchdown passes against two interceptions. San Francisco is traveling on a short week after a 23-17 Monday night win over Washington, and Mike Evans is dealing with Achilles tendinitis, so the receiving depth is thin. Atlanta is 2-4 after a 31-23 loss to Chicago, but Bijan Robinson and a ground game averaging 5.07 yards per carry give the Falcons a real way to hang around against a 2.5-point spread.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET): A 53.5 total is the highest on the board. Jordan Love has 11 touchdown passes and Matthew Golden went for 104 yards and a score in last week's 23-13 win over Dallas, and the Packers are 4-2. Detroit comes off its bye with Jared Goff at 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions, and the Lions lead the NFL in sacks. Jahmyr Gibbs gives the Lions the ground game that Green Bay doesn't have.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): The AFC North is a mess in the best way, and the Ravens are favored by only 1.5 at home. Joe Burrow comes off the bye completing 71.4 percent of his passes, and the Bengals convert half their third downs, second best in the league. Baltimore's Lamar Jackson hasn't played since Week 4 and is day-to-day with an ankle injury, which is why Tyler Huntley is the fallback after a 13-10 loss at Cleveland.
Pittsburgh Steelers v. New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 9:30 AM ET, Paris): This is the NFL's first regular season game in France, and Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite at Stade de France. The Steelers are 4-2 after Aaron Rodgers hit Germie Bernard for the winning touchdown in overtime against Tampa Bay. The Saints are 2-4 but come off a 34-27 win over the Giants in which Tyler Shough accounted for four touchdowns.
NFL Game of the Week
My NFL Game of the Week is Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, and the story practically writes itself. An unbeaten team against the defending champions is a primetime game by itself, and the revenge angle makes it even better. Seattle opened as a 1.5-point favorite and the line has settled at -3, with a total of 42.5, which tells you the market sees this as a defensive grind.
Start with Seattle, because the Seahawks are the team with something to prove. They've lost two straight, to the 49ers at home and to Denver in overtime on Thursday, and they get extra rest because they played last week's game on Thursday night. The problem is the offense. Darnold has seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions with a 77.4 rating, and he ranks 27th in adjusted EPA per play, a far cry from the Super Bowl run a year ago. The one thing Seattle does well is stop the run, which matters a lot this week.
Now the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has nine touchdown passes against three interceptions and a 103.1 rating, and he's third in the MVP odds in his comeback from last season's knee injury. Kansas City has outscored opponents by 57 points and just held Los Angeles to six. The engine is Walker, who leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards and averages 5.51 per carry. Andy Reid says he expects Walker to stay level-headed, and Mahomes called the matchup special for him, but a team that didn't make him an offer is about to see exactly what it let walk.
The matchup that decides it is Walker against that Seattle run defense. If the Seahawks can make Kansas City one-dimensional, Darnold only needs to avoid the turnovers that sank him last week, and the home crowd can take it from there. If Walker gets going, Mahomes has an easy afternoon and Seattle's offense probably can't keep up. I'm leaning Chiefs in a one-score game, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes down to the last possession. This is the game I'd clear my Sunday night for.
My strong runner-up: Packers at Lions. A 53.5 total, a division rivalry, and two quarterbacks playing well make this the game I'd most want on in the background. Goff hasn't thrown an interception, and Love has been sharp during a three-week run.
Best Division Matchups
Five division games this week, and the NFC North and AFC North ones carry real standings weight.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (AFC North): The Browns, Ravens, and Steelers are all 4-2, and the Bengals are 3-2 coming out of the bye. A win moves Cincinnati to the front of the pack, and Baltimore's Jackson situation makes it a true toss-up.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (NFC North): Minnesota is 5-0 and Chicago is 5-2, so the Lions at 3-2 can't afford to fall further behind. Green Bay is 4-2 with a win over Dallas on Sunday night.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (NFC South): Carolina leads the division at 3-2 and Tampa Bay is 1-5, but Baker Mayfield's potential return from his thumb injury makes this more interesting than the records suggest.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (AFC East): The first of two meetings this year, with the rematch in Week 12 in Miami. The Jets are 2-4 and favored by 4.5 over a winless Dolphins team.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East, Monday Night Football): Both teams are 2-4 and the Giants lead the division at 3-2-1, so the loser's season is in real trouble. Philadelphia has lost Jalen Hurts for the year.
Potential NFL Upsets This Week
Want value on the underdog side? These are the NFL games this week where I think the numbers say an upset is squarely in play, and I'm not afraid to say it.
Arizona Cardinals (+195 ML) vs. Denver Broncos (-4.5): Arizona just beat the Rams 18-16 on a last-second field goal as a double-digit underdog, and Denver's offense ranks 31st in yards per play. Bo Nix threw for just 107 yards in last week's 17-14 overtime win over Seattle. Trey McBride has been Arizona's top target since the Marvin Harrison trade, and the Broncos were without Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga for last week's game.
Cincinnati Bengals (+124 ML) @ Baltimore Ravens (-1.5): If Jackson doesn't go, this is a Bengals team coming off a bye with a healthy roster against Huntley's offense, which is averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt. Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are the better trio in a game that should be decided on third down.
Atlanta Falcons (+160 ML) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): San Francisco is on a short week and traveling for a 1 PM ET kickoff, and its hot start has featured just one true road game because the schedule opened in Australia. Atlanta has dropped two straight heartbreakers, but Robinson gives the Falcons a legitimate way to control the clock.
Philadelphia Eagles (+180 ML) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-4.5): Dallas opened as a 5.5-point favorite and the line has already moved toward Philadelphia. The Cowboys' defense ranks 31st in EPA per play, and Tanner McKee threw for 215 yards in his first start. Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring injury, and a return would help.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+140 ML) @ Carolina Panthers (-3): Carolina's run defense allows a league-worst 5.12 yards per carry, and Bucky Irving has run for 406 yards this season. If Mayfield gets back from his thumb injury, Tampa Bay has a better quarterback option than it's had in weeks.
Best Games for Fantasy Football
If you're setting lineups, these are the best NFL games this week to chase for fantasy production. The totals already told us which offenses are getting turned loose. Listen to them.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (53.5 total): Goff and Gibbs lead one of the league's best offenses, and Love, Christian Watson, and Golden give the Packers answers through the air.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons (49.5 total): Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle carry the 49ers with the receiver group thinned out, and McCaffrey had two touchdowns and nine catches last week. Robinson keeps the Falcons in the game.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (48.5 total): Burrow is completing 71.4 percent of his passes, Ja'Marr Chase has 289 yards and four touchdowns, and Derrick Henry anchors the Ravens either way.
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders (48.5 total): Matthew Stafford leads the league with 1,794 passing yards, and Puka Nacua has 37 catches, but Davante Adams is on injured reserve. Kirk Cousins has 14 touchdown passes, and Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers give Las Vegas weapons to match.
Pittsburgh Steelers v. New Orleans Saints (44.5 total): Rodgers has 12 touchdown passes and Jaylen Warren is a good fit against a Saints run defense that needs work. Shough has 12 touchdown passes of his own, with Chris Olave as the target.
Best Games for DFS
For DFS, you want a high total paired with a spread tight enough to keep both offenses on the field deep into the fourth quarter. That combo is where the real, usable value hides on any given slate.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions: A 53.5 total with a 3-point spread is the best game stack on the board.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons: A 49.5 total and a 2.5-point spread keep both sides live, and the 49ers' thin receiving group concentrates the targets.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: A 48.5 total and a 1.5-point spread is the tightest game among the high totals. Check Jackson's status before you build.
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders: A 48.5 total with a 3.5-point spread. Stafford and Nacua pair naturally with Cousins and Bowers as a bring-back.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: A 44.5 total and a 3-point spread. Bryce Young leads the NFL in passing yards per game, and Tampa Bay's quarterback news could swing the line.
Best NFL Games to Watch This Sunday 10/25
Sunday, October 25 carries the bulk of the Week 7 slate, and it's stacked from a Paris kickoff to Sunday Night Football. Here's how the day breaks down by window.
9:30 AM ET Window (Paris)
Pittsburgh Steelers v. New Orleans Saints: Steelers favored by 3, total of 44.5. Aaron Rodgers and Jaylen Warren against Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, and Alvin Kamara at Stade de France.
1:00 PM ET Window
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons: 49ers favored by 2.5, total of 49.5, the highest of the early window. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey against Bijan Robinson.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans: Browns favored by 1.5, total of 37.5, the lowest of the day. Deshaun Watson and Cleveland, 4-2 after a 13-10 win over Baltimore, against Cam Ward and a Titans team that just won its first game.
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings: Vikings favored by 6.5, total of 41.5. Kyler Murray and the unbeaten Vikings, with Justin Jefferson (ankle) limited in practice, against Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: Jets favored by 4.5, total of 39.5. Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson against Malik Willis, with Breece Hall (quad) questionable.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: Panthers favored by 3, total of 44.5. Bryce Young against Tampa Bay's Jalon Daniels or Baker Mayfield.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens favored by 1.5, total of 48.5. Joe Burrow against Tyler Huntley or Lamar Jackson.
New York Giants @ Houston Texans: Texans favored by 10.5, total of 42.5, the largest spread of the day. J.J. McCarthy makes his first Giants start after Jameis Winston was benched in a 34-27 loss to the Saints, and he faces C.J. Stroud, the AFC Offensive Player of the Week.
4:05 PM ET Window
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals: Broncos favored by 4.5, total of 43.5. Bo Nix against Jacoby Brissett, with Jeremiyah Love questionable.
4:25 PM ET Window
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions: Lions favored by 3, total of 53.5, the highest of the day. Jordan Love against Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders: Rams favored by 3.5, total of 48.5. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua against Kirk Cousins, with Davante Adams out.
8:20 PM ET Window
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks: The Sunday Night Football headliner, Seahawks favored by 3, total of 42.5. Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker against Sam Darnold.
Monday Night Football (10/26)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles: Cowboys favored by 4.5, total of 44.5. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb against Tanner McKee, with Jalen Hurts out for the season and Saquon Barkley questionable.
Wherever your weekend takes you, this slate delivers. Bookmark this page before kickoff, and check back every single week for the best NFL games to watch across Thursday, Sunday, and Monday all season long.