They’re all back! All four Divisional Round series are back on the diamond today, which means that this is perhaps the absolute best day for MLB home run picks until next season. They’re also ideal for fans who don’t have their favorite teams still in action, not to mention the extreme value that they bring. On top of all that, the deeper into each series we get, the pitchers on the mound generally get better to target and bullpens get more fatigued. So, let’s take advantage of that with our best MLB home run predictions for today!

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

With all eight remaining teams hitting up the diamond today, it’s the best slate to have both our MLB home run picks and MLB expert picks. There’s sure to be some game markets and other props you want to target, like K props, while we still can. The season is winding down, but the stakes are as high as ever, and here’s who’s on our radar for the best MLB home run predictions today…

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 10/7: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Again, all four Divisional Round series taking place means all the factors to consider for the best MLB home run picks, starting with our MLB weather report. The options are already lessened, so we don’t want to focus on a game that gets postponed anyway. Beyond that, it’s all about the starters and the hitters involved.

The extra pressure is certainly worth considering, but beyond that, the underlying metrics tell the story. This means barrel rates, hard-hit rates, average exit velocities, slugging, ISO, and more. Thankfully, just about all metrics apply to both pitchers and hitters, so along with bullpens, here’s why the three names above are our best MLB home run picks for today!

Max Muncy (+426)

Thankfully, we were also on Yoshinobu Yamamoto going over his K prop last night as well to make up for the Atlanta Braves not hitting homers for us, and we’re going to lead off with the Los Angeles Dodgers yet again. After how the series started, why not this guy? The lefty cashed MLB home run picks in back-to-back games!

While those were at home at Dodger Stadium, we still like him at Truist Park tonight against Braves starter Tyler Mahle. While not awful, we’d certainly consider him worse than LA starter Tyler Glasnow. He’s also allowed more power to lefties, and we all know about Muncy’s power against righty pitchers - he has a .236 ISO!

It’s also exactly a .236 expected ISO, so he’s not just getting lucky; let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Max Muncy hitting a HR (19% (+426) at Novig). 

Luis Garcia Jr. (+454)

Let’s stay on the East Coast but swap to the ALDS. The New York Yankees are on the brink of elimination after losing each of the first two games to the Tampa Bay Rays, so they’re hoping that being back in the Bronx can turn the tide. Thankfully for them, they won’t be dealing with Drew Rasmussen again, so they can cash some MLB home run picks.

They can do so against Nick Martinez, even if he is an off-speed pitcher. Yankee Stadium is friendly to the long ball in general, especially to lefties, so all eyes will be on Ben Rice. He’s been the guy trying to carry the Bronx Bombers with multiple multi-HR games, but we’re going to pivot to a different lefty.

The former Washington Nationals slugger went yard the last time the Yankees were at home (Wild Card Round vs. the Boston Red Sox), so let’s grab great value with our MLB home run picks and lock in Luis Garcia Jr. hitting a HR (+454 at DraftKings). 

Munetaka Murakami (+410)

It’s only fitting to round things out with another lefty to give us a trio of southpaws. We’ve been on the rookie power hitter recently, and he led off the Chicago White Sox’ series against the Cleveland Guardians with a homer. Well, now he gets to cash some MLB home run picks in front of the home crowd in the Windy City.

On top of that, there is no dealing with Gavin Williams tonight. Instead, the Guardians are starting Daniel Espino, which means a bullpen game for Cleveland. The clear pivot here is Miguel Vargas, but with primarily righties taking the mound, we’ll stay on theme, not to mention the first baseman’s monster .302 ISO vs. righties.

This one is the first game of the quad-stack, so lock in Munetaka Murakami hitting a HR (+410 at FanDuel) as part of your best MLB home run picks for today!

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

With the most opportunities for MLB home run picks that we’ve had in a bit and perhaps the most we’ll have for several months, let’s also get a longshot in here…

We picked on Rays starter Nick Martinez with a lefty already, so why not another one? Again, the Yankees season is on the line, and we’ve seen the rookie make a name for himself right from the rip in his MLB debut. Let’s see him take advantage of the short porch at Yankee Stadium and cash our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

You already know the theme of today - taking advantage of the huge day of playoff action on the diamond. So, let’s truly make the most of it and piece together multiple MLB home run picks for today’s for-fun parlay…

That’s three monster HR names for a huge potential payout. Utilize our top MLB home run picks in whichever way feels best to you and make this hump day feel like a Friday night!