Last week's scorecard was a split, so let's start with the wins. Drake Maye threw three touchdowns with no turnovers in the win over the Jets, Kirk Cousins threw for 313 yards and two scores as the FanDuel value even in a loss to Buffalo, and the Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan stack delivered, with Young throwing for 281 yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia. The Tanner McKee fade worked too once Jalen Hurts was ruled out, as McKee managed 215 yards at 4.8 yards per attempt and took three sacks. The misses hurt more. Matthew Stafford, my pick and Play of the Week, had just 96 yards through three quarters in the Rams' 18-16 loss to Arizona, with Puka Nacua held to six catches. Patrick Mahomes threw for 272 yards, but no touchdowns and an interception, and Jameis Winston threw two picks and got pulled for J.J. McCarthy, even though Isaiah Likely did his part with six catches for 99 yards and a score.

Now on to Week 7. The Bills, Jaguars, Chargers, and Commanders are on bye, which takes Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, and Jayden Daniels out of the pool, and with Thursday night, the Paris game, Sunday night, and Monday night all sitting outside the main slate, the board is thinner than usual. Let's get into who deserves your salary.

NFL DFS Week 7 QB Picks

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $7,600

Love is my top play this week, and the Lions are the reason. Detroit's defense is allowing 297 passing yards a game, the most in the league, and has given up 14 touchdown passes, and it is surrendering 404 total yards a game even after the bye, while the Lions' offense leads the NFL in scoring, so Green Bay should be throwing to keep pace. Love is already at 1,684 yards and 11 touchdowns with 4 interceptions through six games, including three 300-yard games, and last week's 276 yards came with his receivers dropping passes all night, including three potential touchdowns. He also has a rushing score on a goal-line sneak. The risk is the pass rush. Love has been sacked 13 times, and Detroit led the league with 20 sacks before the bye. The Lions are 3-point home favorites with the total at 53.5, the highest on the board.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,700

Stafford is a bounce-back play after a clunker against Arizona. Through three quarters, he was 12 of 19 for 96 yards, then he drove the Rams to a late touchdown and finished 25 of 33 for 222 yards and two scores in the 18-16 loss, averaging just 4.8 air yards per attempt, one of the lowest marks of his Rams career. He is still at 1,794 yards and 11 touchdowns through six games, throwing about 41 times a game. Davante Adams is out for an extended stretch, reported at 6 to 10 weeks, which funnels even more targets to Nacua, and the Raiders are a good place to get right. Las Vegas is allowing 237 passing yards a game, 24th in the league, with 13 touchdown passes given up, and ranks 28th in total defense. The Rams are 4.5-point road favorites with the total at 48.5.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $7,500

Stroud had his best game of the season in London, going 24 of 34 for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and his one interception was the first he has thrown all year. He got the Texans to the winning field goal for their second straight win, with touchdowns to Foster Moreau (two) and Jaylin Noel, and now he is home against the Giants as a 10-point favorite with the total at 42.5. New York has been stingy by yardage, allowing 190 passing yards a game, fifth-fewest in the league, but it has also given up 12 touchdown passes and ranks 29th against the run, so Houston can lean on play-action. The risk is a comfortable lead that trims his volume, but at $5,700 on DraftKings, he is the QB9 for a quarterback who has found his rhythm.

 

 

 

Best NFL DFS QB Values for Week 7

Best DraftKings QB Value

Geno Smith, New York Jets - DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $6,900

Smith is priced like a backup on DraftKings at $5,100 even though he has been one of the most efficient passers in the league, completing 68.9 percent of his throws for 1,336 yards and 7 touchdowns with a single interception, good for a 101.8 rating through six games. That interception came last week in the loss to New England and was his first in 166 attempts. Now he gets a Dolphins defense that ranks 31st on third down, letting opponents convert 51.7 percent, and has allowed 11 touchdown passes. The Jets are 4.5-point home favorites, though the 38.5 total is one of the lowest on the board, so this is more of a floor play than a ceiling play.

Best FanDuel QB Value

Geno Smith, New York Jets - DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $6,900

On FanDuel, he is the QB15 at $6,900, the same rank he holds on DraftKings, so this is about the matchup rather than a site discount. The Jets' passing game has some life, with rookie Omar Cooper Jr. posting his first 100-yard game last week, 6 catches for 103 yards and a 48-yard touchdown, and Garrett Wilson up to 48 targets through six games. Miami can't get off the field on third down, which should give Smith plenty of chances to sustain drives, and with no yardage bonus on FanDuel, the touchdown upside against a defense that has given up 11 scoring passes is what I'm buying.

Best NFL DFS QB Stacks for Week 7

Best QB/WR Stack

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $7,600

Stack with:

Golden and Watson are the way to attach to this game. Golden has posted back-to-back 100-yard games, including six catches for 104 yards and a touchdown against Dallas, and Watson added three catches for 64 yards with Jayden Reed out. Green Bay's receivers dropped passes all night last week, so I think production was left on the field. Detroit has allowed 14 touchdown passes, and the 53.5 total is the highest on the board. Golden is the cheaper piece, while Watson is the boom-or-bust deep threat.

Best QB/TE Stack

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $8,500

Stack with:

Purdy has thrown 14 touchdowns against 2 interceptions through six games, and he was 21 of 29 for 264 yards on Monday night, with an 11-yard touchdown to Kittle on the opening drive. Kittle finished with five catches on eight targets for 69 yards. Atlanta is allowing 252 passing yards a game, 28th in the league, even though it has been tough against the run, which should keep the 49ers throwing. Mike Evans is questionable, so if he sits, Kittle and Christian McCaffrey should absorb even more targets. San Francisco is a 3-point road favorite with the total at 50.5.

Best Contrarian Stack

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers - DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $7,800

Stack with:

The field is going to be on Packers-Lions, Bengals-Ravens, and 49ers-Falcons, which leaves Panthers-Bucs at a 44.5 total flying under the radar. Young leads the NFL at 309.8 passing yards a game with 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and he has now thrown for at least 250 yards and a touchdown in seven straight games, a franchise record. McMillan caught six passes for 86 yards on nine targets last week. Tampa Bay has the second-best run defense in the league at 75.5 yards a game, which should keep Carolina throwing, and its pass defense is 20th at 224 yards a game. Baker Mayfield is questionable, and Carolina is a 3.5-point home favorite.

 

 

 

NFL DFS QB Fades for Week 7

Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals - DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $7,000

Brissett has been a volume play all season, throwing 39 times a game for 1,328 yards, 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, but Denver is the wrong place to chase it. The Broncos sacked Sam Darnold five times and intercepted him twice in last week's overtime win, holding Seattle to 184 yards through three quarters, and Darnold finished with 51 attempts, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Denver is 10th against the pass at 208 yards a game, and Brissett just went 24 of 35 for 218 yards with no touchdown and an interception in the win over the Rams, a game Arizona won on six field goals. Denver is a 4.5-point road favorite with the total at 43.5. With a defense that has made high-volume passers work this hard, I'm not paying for the volume. It's a fade for me.

DraftKings vs. FanDuel QB Picks for Week 7

Kirk Cousins shows the biggest gap on the board: the QB8 on DraftKings but only the QB17 on FanDuel at $6,800, after he threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns last week, so FanDuel is where he is priced like a backup. Purdy and Young are each two spots cheaper on DraftKings than they are on FanDuel, where Purdy's $8,500 makes him the QB2, while Love and Stafford each get a one-spot FanDuel discount and Stroud gets a one-spot DraftKings discount. Brissett is three spots cheaper on FanDuel, which doesn't change my mind on the fade. Geno Smith ranks the same on both sites, QB15, so I'd just play him wherever your budget has the room.

PlayerDK RankDK PriceFD RankFD PriceCheaper Site (Rank Gap)
Jordan LoveQB6$6,000QB7$7,600FanDuel (1 spot)
Matthew StaffordQB5$6,400QB6$7,700FanDuel (1 spot)
C.J. StroudQB9$5,700QB8$7,500DraftKings (1 spot)
Brock PurdyQB4$6,600QB2$8,500DraftKings (2 spots)
Bryce YoungQB7$5,900QB5$7,800DraftKings (2 spots)
Jacoby BrissettQB10$5,600QB13$7,000FanDuel (3 spots)
Kirk CousinsQB8$5,800QB17$6,800FanDuel (9 spots)

Ranks include questionable quarterbacks and exclude quarterbacks ruled out. Quarterbacks who rank the same on both sites are left out.

NFL Week 7 QB Play of the Week

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $7,600

Love is the play of the week because he checks every box I look for. He has the best matchup on the board against the defense allowing the most passing yards in the league; he is in the game with the highest total, he already has three 300-yard games, and he is priced below five quarterbacks on DraftKings and six on FanDuel. His receivers left points on the field last week, and I expect them to be sharper against a secondary that has been giving up big plays all season. The pass rush is the one thing that can derail it, but I'll take that risk. Jordan Love is my NFL DFS QB Play of the Week.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 7 QB Rankings

  1. Jordan Love
  2. Joe Burrow
  3. Lamar Jackson
  4. Matthew Stafford
  5. Bryce Young
  6. C.J. Stroud
  7. Brock Purdy
  8. Jared Goff
  9. Kirk Cousins
  10. Geno Smith
  11. Kyler Murray
  12. Deshaun Watson
  13. Jacoby Brissett
  14. Bo Nix
  15. Michael Penix
  16. Daniel Jones
  17. Jameis Winston / J.J. McCarthy
  18. Jalon Daniels
  19. Malik Willis
  20. Cam Ward