Three games are north of 51 this week, and one of them has a 12.5-point spread. The main slate is ten games. Texans-Jaguars in London, Cowboys-Packers on Sunday night and Commanders-49ers on Monday aren't on it, and the Chiefs and Panthers are both coming off byes. Totals only get you so far, so here is where I'm actually spending.
Best NFL DFS Game Environments for Week 6
Bills-Raiders (53.5), Bears-Falcons (52.5) and Cardinals-Rams (51.5) are the three games that matter. Then the board falls off: Saints-Giants is 46.5, Titans-Colts is 44.5, Jets-Patriots is 43.5, and nothing else is above 41.5. There's a reason the top looks like this. Five of the seven worst defenses in FTN's defensive DVOA are on this slate (Raiders, Bills, Cardinals, Titans and Saints, with negative being good). Titans-Colts and Jets-Patriots look fine on paper, but Tennessee and New York can't score, so the Colts and Patriots are doing all the work on those totals. That's not a shootout, so there's no game stack in either one. The bottom of the board is ugly for a reason too. Lamar Jackson is out again, Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve and Baker Mayfield is out in Tampa.
Best NFL DFS Games to Stack
Bills-Raiders (BUF -5.5, 53.5 total)
This is the best game on the board and I'll have plenty of it. Neither pass defense holds up. Buffalo is 28th against the pass in DVOA and gives up 280 yards a game through the air, second-worst in the league, and Las Vegas is 25th. Start with Kirk Cousins. He's about 5% owned after a 45-17 loss in New England where he finished as the QB19, and the Bills are scoring a league-high 32.8 points a game, so the Raiders have to throw to keep up. Brock Bowers is the engine. He's got 24 catches for 312 yards and three touchdowns in three games and he lines up out wide about 80% of the time, so don't think of him as a tight end. He's chalk and I'm good with that. Josh Allen is the other side, and it comes down to DJ Moore. Moore and Joshua Palmer are both Questionable with shoulder injuries, and the Bills threw about 9.5% less than expected last week without them. If Moore plays, he's the guy next to Allen at $5,600, and he's showing zero ownership right now. If he sits, it's Khalil Shakir and I'd cool off a little on Allen. Cook is the comeback for Cousins, but he lost two fumbles against the Rams. Ashton Jeanty is the comeback for Allen.
Bears-Falcons (CHI -1.5, 52.5 total)
Atlanta is the side I want. Chicago's run defense is 30th in DVOA and it's missing Dayo Odeyingbo, T.J. Edwards and Keyshaun Elliott, with Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson Questionable. Michael Penix is healthy after the rib scare and costs $5,000, which makes the stack cheap. Drake London is the chalk after seven catches for 118 yards against Baltimore, and I'll pay for him. Bijan Robinson is in a great run spot too. On the Chicago side, Caleb Williams is expected to play after a full week of practice, though he's still listed Questionable with the hamstring. D'Andre Swift has the backfield with Kyle Monangai out, and Swift is my comeback. If you want a Chicago receiver, Luther Burden is the popular one and Rome Odunze is the cheaper one. Atlanta's pass defense is ninth in DVOA, so I'm not leaning on Williams.
Cardinals-Rams (LAR -12.5, 51.5 total)
Stafford and Nacua are the stack. It's the most expensive and most-owned stack on the board, and it's still right. Arizona's pass defense is 30th in DVOA, the Rams are laying 12.5 and the Cardinals just gave up 45 to Detroit. Nacua is around 36% on both sites and Stafford is 26% on FanDuel. The one thing that worries me is a blowout, which could shut down Stafford's volume late. Davante Adams is the cheaper way to add a second Rams piece, and Tyler Higbee is the cheap tight end. The better price is on the Arizona side. Jeremiyah Love is out, so Tyler Allgeier has the backfield, and Jacoby Brissett (292 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions) and Trey McBride (nine catches) will be throwing all afternoon if the Rams get out early. McBride went from 36% last week to under 7%, and Brissett is around 2%.
Saints-Giants (NO -1.5, 46.5 total)
This is the best mismatch outside the top three. The Saints are 31st in DVOA and dead last against the run, and the Giants are 23rd. New York is 3-1-1 after a 27-27 tie with Washington where Jameis Winston threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns after halftime. He's under 3% with Malik Nabers, and Isaiah Likely is the chalk tight end now that Theo Johnson is out. Take Nabers on DraftKings and Likely on FanDuel. Cam Skattebo is about 3% against the worst run defense in the league, and he's the leverage back on this slate. The Saints comeback is Alvin Kamara, who's Questionable with a back issue. On the New Orleans side, Chris Olave is Questionable with an illness. Tyler Shough led the league in dropbacks per game early on, so it's a good game stack if Olave plays.
Highest-Scoring Games to Target
| Game | Vegas Total | Spread | Top Stack to Build |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills-Raiders | 53.5 | BUF -5.5 | Cousins / Bowers |
| Bears-Falcons | 52.5 | CHI -1.5 | Penix / London |
| Cardinals-Rams | 51.5 | LAR -12.5 | Stafford / Nacua |
| Saints-Giants | 46.5 | NO -1.5 | Winston / Nabers |
| Titans-Colts | 44.5 | IND -7 | No stack (Taylor only) |
| Jets-Patriots | 43.5 | NE -7.5 | No stack (Stevenson only) |
| Chargers-Chiefs | 41.5 | KC -7.5 | Mahomes / Kelce |
| Ravens-Browns | 39.5 | BAL -3 | Fade |
Best Contrarian NFL DFS Stacks
Two lightly owned spots I actually believe in this week.
- Chiefs stack: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Kansas City is 4-0 and coming off a bye, and the Chargers are 0-5 without Derwin James, Donte Jackson and Joe Alt. Rashee Rice is out, which puts Kelce right back in the middle of the offense. Mahomes is about 3% on both sites, tenth among quarterbacks, and Kelce is under 5% on DraftKings. Xavier Worthy is the chalk at 22% on DraftKings. The Chargers' pass defense is only league average, 15th in DVOA, and that was before the secondary injuries.
- Panthers stack: Bryce Young with Tetairoa McMillan. Philadelphia is without Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and Landon Dickerson, and the Eagles' secondary is missing Michael Carter II and Jakorian Bennett. Their pass defense is 21st in DVOA. McMillan costs $7,300 on DraftKings and he's a little over 2% owned. The total is only 39.5, so I'd use this in one lineup, not a lot of them.
NFL DFS Games to Fade
- Titans-Colts and Jets-Patriots: no game stacks. Tennessee is 0-5 and managed 3.2 yards per play against Houston. The Jets are without Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell, with Kenyon Sadiq Questionable. Neither one gives me a bring-back. The running backs are the only pieces I want. Rhamondre Stevenson is the value at $6,000 against a Jets run defense that ranks 26th, and he's about 28% owned (33% on FanDuel). Jonathan Taylor is a good spot at $8,000, but I'll pass on the price.
- Ravens-Browns (39.5 total, BAL -3): Lamar Jackson is out again, so it's Tyler Huntley for an offense that sat in neutral against Atlanta. Cleveland is without Dillon Gabriel, and Deshaun Watson was sacked eight times by the Jets. KC Concepcion is 18% on DraftKings and 6% on FanDuel, and I'm not paying for it.
- Steelers-Buccaneers (38.5 total, PIT -2.5): Tampa Bay's defense is fifth in DVOA and its run defense is sixth. The Bucs are without Baker Mayfield and Antoine Winfield Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdowns against the Colts, but this is a much tougher defense, and Pittsburgh is missing Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek. It's the lowest total on the slate.
- Chargers offense: Los Angeles is 0-5 with Tre Harris and Joe Alt out and KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Brenen Thompson Questionable, and now it's at Arrowhead against a team coming off a bye. Justin Herbert is under 1% on both sites, and that's right.
NFL DFS Stack Rankings for Week 6
This is my order, based on price, matchup and ownership. Salary and ownership are for the QB and his pass catcher on each site.
| Rank | QB / Pass-Catcher Stack | Game (Total, Spread) | DK Sal | DK Own% | FD Sal | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kirk Cousins / Brock Bowers | LV/BUF (53.5, BUF -5.5) | $12,900 | 12.9% | $15,100 | 11.5% |
| 2 | Michael Penix / Drake London | ATL/CHI (52.5, CHI -1.5) | $12,000 | 20.4% | $14,500 | 21.4% |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes / Travis Kelce | KC/LAC (41.5, KC -7.5) | $12,000 | 4.1% | $13,600 | 9.1% |
| 4 | Jameis Winston / Malik Nabers | NYG/NO (46.5, NO -1.5) | $11,600 | 9.8% | $14,800 | 5.0% |
| 5 | Josh Allen / DJ Moore (if active) | BUF/LV (53.5, BUF -5.5) | $13,100 | 9.1% (QB) | $16,200 | 9.9% (QB) |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford / Puka Nacua | LAR/ARI (51.5, LAR -12.5) | $14,500 | 26.7% | $16,800 | 31.4% |
| 7 | Jacoby Brissett / Trey McBride | ARI/LAR (51.5, LAR -12.5) | $13,000 | 4.4% | $14,600 | 5.3% |
| 8 | Bryce Young / Tetairoa McMillan | CAR/PHI (39.5, CAR -3) | $13,000 | 2.6% | $14,700 | 4.1% |
Bills-Raiders and Bears-Falcons are where I want the most exposure. Both have a cheap quarterback tied to a receiver everyone already likes.
Stafford and Nacua are the chalk and I'm still on them, because Arizona can't cover anybody. The only thing that bugs me is the 12.5-point spread.
The leverage I'm most excited about is Cousins in Vegas, Mahomes at home against an 0-5 team and Winston against the worst run defense in the league. Before lock I'm checking Williams' hamstring, DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer, and the Olave and Kamara news.