Week 10 brings a 10-game Sunday main slate with a clear top end. Cowboys-49ers has the highest total on the board at 55.5, Bills-Jets (50.5) and Panthers-Saints (48.5) are the other games near 50, and Jaguars-Titans (Jacksonville -10.5), Cardinals-Rams (Los Angeles -9.5), and Bills-Jets (Buffalo -8.5) carry the biggest spreads. Dolphins-Colts (38.5) and Cardinals-Rams (39.5) sit at the bottom of the board. Three quarterbacks make their first NFL starts, and the trade deadline reshuffled the Colts, 49ers and Vikings offenses.
Here's where I've got my money, straight from Fantasy Alarm's DK and FD models: the chalk that's earned it, the guys the field is underrating, where the real leverage lives, and how I'd build around it.
NFL DFS Ownership Projections Week 10
Three games set the tone.
Cowboys-49ers: San Francisco is -3.5 with a 55.5 total, which puts the 49ers near 29.5 implied points and the Cowboys near 26. Dallas is 29th in defensive DVOA, per FTN, and San Francisco is eighth.
Bills-Jets: Buffalo is -8.5 with a 50.5 total, and the Bills sit near 29.5 implied points against a Jets defense that is 24th.
Panthers-Saints: New Orleans is -2.5 with a 48.5 total, and neither defense ranks higher than 23rd.
Jaguars-Titans (46.5) is a one-sided game with Jacksonville near 28.5 implied points and Tennessee near 18, and Chiefs-Falcons (46.5) is the other game above 45.
The softest defenses by DVOA through nine weeks are Tennessee (32nd), Las Vegas (31st), New Orleans (30th), Dallas (29th), Arizona (28th), Indianapolis (27th), and Miami (26th), while Seattle, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Green Bay and Los Angeles are all top six. Las Vegas is last against running backs, Arizona is 32nd against No. 2 receivers, and Jacksonville is last against No. 1 receivers but first against No. 2 receivers.
Four pieces of news move the board. Puka Nacua is out for the Rams, Josh Jacobs is out for Green Bay, Kyler Murray is out for Minnesota with Kirk Cousins stepping in after a trade from Las Vegas, and Malik Willis is on injured reserve in Miami. Keenan Allen also moved from Indianapolis to San Francisco.
The field has piled into the Saints' passing game, the Falcons' two stars, Chuba Hubbard and the Colts tight end. The Seahawks and Jaguars offenses and the Cowboys running game are owned well below their environments.
Highest-Owned NFL DFS Players
Tyler Warren leads DraftKings at 31.8%, and Chris Olave, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Chuba Hubbard are all above 24%. Chuba Hubbard is 35.7% on FanDuel, the highest number on either site at his position. Carnell Tate is 26.0% but is officially out, so that number is stale.
| Player | Pos | Team | DK Salary | DK Own% | FD Salary | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | $4,400 | 31.8% | $5,300 | 19.8% |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | $7,000 | 27.5% | $7,900 | 19.6% |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | $5,200 | 26.0% | $5,800 | 14.7% |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | $8,200 | 25.9% | $8,800 | 30.8% |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | $6,600 | 24.9% | $7,700 | 16.2% |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | $7,200 | 24.5% | $7,200 | 35.7% |
| Texans DST | DST | HOU | $3,400 | 23.1% | $5,000 | 13.4% |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | $8,800 | 22.8% | $9,000 | 28.3% |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | $5,600 | 22.7% | $7,300 | 21.0% |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | $8,500 | 20.6% | $9,000 | 25.4% |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | $7,400 | 17.9% | $8,400 | 20.8% |
| Colts DST | DST | IND | $3,000 | 17.4% | $4,100 | 25.6% |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | $4,200 | 17.3% | $5,800 | 4.5% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | $6,700 | 16.9% | $7,100 | 22.1% |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | LAR | $3,000 | 16.8% | $4,900 | 2.9% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | $6,600 | 16.6% | $6,800 | 23.5% |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | $5,700 | 16.1% | $6,200 | 19.0% |
| Audric Estime | RB | NO | $4,500 | 15.6% | $5,700 | 8.0% |
Best NFL DFS Chalk Plays
Chris Olave (WR, NO vs. CAR): Carolina is 25th in pass DVOA and has only looked better since firing defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, and the 48.5 total gives New Orleans about 25.5 implied points. Chris Olave is the one receiver on this offense you can lock in, with a 28.2% target share and 734 yards, and Jordyn Tyson's growing snap count has not changed that. The risk is Jaycee Horn, whose PFF coverage grade of 67.1 is the best Carolina has, plus a Saints backfield that gets Travis Etienne back and could lean on the run.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL vs. KC): Kansas City is 28th in DVOA against running backs, and Bijan Robinson, who is averaging 5.2 yards a carry, ran for 100 yards last week with Brian Robinson on injured reserve and Khalil Herbert as the only backup. The Chiefs are also likely to be without right tackle Jaylon Moore and defensive tackle Peter Woods. The risk is that Kansas City is seventh against the run and Atlanta is only near 22 implied points, so his ceiling depends on the passing game staying close.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL vs. SF): CeeDee Lamb has a 32.9% target share and had 10 catches for 195 yards and a touchdown last week without George Pickens, and San Francisco's starting corners Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir both missed Wednesday's practice. Dallas is near 26 implied points in the highest-total game on the slate. The risk is the price at $8,800, a San Francisco defense that is eighth in DVOA, and George Pickens drawing targets back if he plays.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF at DAL): Dallas is 28th in rush DVOA and 24th against running backs, and San Francisco is a 3.5-point favorite near 29.5 implied points. Christian McCaffrey, who has nine rushing touchdowns, played last week without a designation after his hamstring injury and practiced fully Thursday. The risk is that Mike Evans is unlikely to play, Deebo Samuel is limited, and Keenan Allen has joined the offense, so more targets could go to the passing game.
James Cook (RB, BUF at NYJ): The Jets are 31st in DVOA against running backs and 26th against the run, and Buffalo is an 8.5-point favorite near 29.5 implied points. James Cook has 814 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, including four games over 100 yards. The risk is Josh Allen's rushing touchdowns and a Bills offense that could throw more against the Jets' 26th-ranked pass defense.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR at NO): New Orleans is 30th in rush DVOA and 25th against running backs, and Chuba Hubbard, who has 619 rushing yards, is the Panthers' clear lead back with Jonathon Brooks officially doubtful, so the volume is safe. Carolina is a 2.5-point underdog near 23 implied points in a 48.5 total. The risk is the ownership: he's 24.5% on DraftKings and 35.7% on FanDuel, so the field already expects a big game against the league's 30th-ranked run defense.
Chalk Worth Holding, Not Chasing
Tyler Shough (QB, NO vs. CAR): Tyler Shough has finished as a top-eight quarterback in all four games against defenses in the top half for fantasy points allowed, and he scored 19.7 points last week for a third straight game with at least 14. He has thrown 14 touchdowns to six interceptions. Carolina has allowed the 12th-most points to quarterbacks, and both teams rank in the top seven in neutral pace. The risk is Travis Etienne's return taking some volume away from the passing game, and a Carolina defense that has improved since the coordinator change.
Tyler Warren (TE, IND vs. MIA): With Josh Downs and Keenan Allen traded away, he's the Colts' only proven pass catcher with an 18.3% target share, and Miami is 22nd against tight ends. The risk is the lowest total on the slate at 38.5, a 9.3 points-per-game average, and a 31.8% price in ownership.
Bhayshul Tuten (RB, JAX at TEN): Tennessee is 30th against running backs, and Jacksonville is a 10.5-point favorite. Head coach Liam Coen said Bhayshul Tuten would practice Friday, and he's expected to play. Bhayshul Tuten has 521 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The risk is the ankle and foot injury: he managed just 29 yards on 12 carries last week, and Chris Rodriguez (hand) is limited.
Chalk I'm Fading
Drake London (WR, ATL vs. KC): He's 24.9% with one touchdown all season against the toughest No. 1 receiver matchup on the slate: Kansas City is second in DVOA against the position, and PFF has Mansoor Delane (77.4 coverage grade) and Nohl Williams (74.2) both rated a 9 or 10 in difficulty. Zachariah Branch has not practiced, which raises Drake London's target share, but Rashee Rice is the better way to get at this game.
Carnell Tate (WR, TEN at JAX): He's 26.0% but officially out. He has not practiced since Oct. 23 and missed Week 8 as well, so don't roster him, and expect the Titans passing game to be thinner without their leading receiver.
Woody Marks (RB, HOU at CLE): He's 16.1% and averaging 3.6 yards a carry, with a knee injury that kept him out of practice Thursday, and David Montgomery returned to practice after a long absence. Cleveland is fifth in DVOA against running backs, so a split backfield in a bad matchup isn't worth the ownership.
Audric Estime (RB, NO vs. CAR): He's 15.6% on just 24 carries this season, but Travis Etienne went full Friday and is questionable, and Alvin Kamara is back to full practice. Carolina is eighth against running backs, so this is a crowded backfield in a tough spot.
Best NFL DFS Low-Owned Plays
| Player | Pos | Team | DK Salary | DK Own% | Pos Rank | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | QB | SEA | $5,000 | 1.2% | QB15 | 1.0% |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | $4,800 | 1.8% | QB13 | 1.2% |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | $7,500 | 6.8% | RB14 | 15.9% |
| Blake Corum | RB | LAR | $5,100 | 0.9% | RB21 | 1.8% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | $9,300 | 8.4% | WR13 | 9.7% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | $6,100 | 8.3% | WR14 | 6.4% |
| Konata Mumpfield | WR | LAR | $4,000 | 6.1% | WR16 | 1.1% |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | $6,300 | 4.4% | WR20 | 5.5% |
| Darren Waller | TE | CAR | $3,600 | 3.8% | TE9 | 1.6% |
| Rams DST | DST | LAR | $3,800 | 4.8% | DST7 | 10.6% |
| Jaguars DST | DST | JAX | $4,000 | 0.4% | DST17 | 1.3% |
Quarterbacks
Drew Lock (QB, SEA at LV): He's 1.2%, 15th among quarterbacks, and Las Vegas is 31st in defensive DVOA, 28th against the pass, and has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Drew Lock was limited all week with elbow and oblique injuries but is starting, and his oblique tests came back fine. In three games, he has five touchdown passes and no interceptions. The risk is the injuries and a 40.5 total with a rookie quarterback on the other side.
Geno Smith (QB, NYJ vs. BUF): He's 1.8%, 13th among quarterbacks, at $4,800, with 12 touchdown passes to three interceptions, and Buffalo is 27th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, with PFF grading Davison Igbinosun and Christian Benford at 55.6 and 54.3 in coverage. The Bills had allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the league through Week 7. The Jets are 8.5-point underdogs near 21 implied points, which points to a trailing script, and Garrett Wilson is expected to play after a full Friday practice. The risk is that Buffalo is 14th in overall pass DVOA and the Jets also lean on Breece Hall.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (RB, DAL vs. SF): He's 6.8%, 14th among running backs, with nine rushing touchdowns, and he's the only healthy back of note on the roster with Tyler Goodson out and Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah cut. Dallas is near 26 implied points. The risk is a San Francisco run defense that is fourth in DVOA, which makes him a volume and touchdown play.
Blake Corum (RB, LAR vs. ARI): He's 0.9%, 21st among running backs, at $5,100. The Rams are 9.5-point favorites and built to run with Puka Nacua out and Davante Adams on injured reserve, and Arizona is 26th in DVOA against running backs. Blake Corum is averaging 5.2 yards a carry and ran for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers in Week 8. The risk is that Kyren Williams keeps the larger share, and Arizona held Seattle to 3.6 yards per carry last week.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA at LV): He's 8.4%, 13th among receivers, and he has 1,036 receiving yards and nine touchdowns on a 35.9% target share. Las Vegas is 28th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, PFF rates none of its corners above 55.5 in coverage, and he practiced fully on Thursday after a rest day. The risk is Drew Lock's injuries and a Seattle offense that could lean on Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC at ATL): He's 8.3%, 14th among receivers, and Atlanta is 25th in DVOA against No. 2 receivers, with corners A.J. Terrell Jr. and Mike Hughes both graded 43 in coverage by PFF. Rice practiced fully with his knee issue, though he has just a 13.0% target share in six games. The risk is a Chiefs offense near 25 implied points that also feeds Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy.
Konata Mumpfield (WR, LAR vs. ARI): He's 6.1%, 16th among receivers, at $4,000, and with Puka Nacua out and Davante Adams on injured reserve, he, Tutu Atwell, and the tight ends absorb the targets, though he has only 23 targets all season. Arizona is 32nd against No. 2 receivers and starts rookie quarterback Carson Beck. The risk is a run-heavy Rams game plan in a 39.5-total game.
George Pickens (WR, DAL vs. SF): He's 4.4%, 20th among receivers, and he's questionable with a hamstring injury after sitting out Week 9. He has 62 targets in eight games. He was limited Wednesday and Thursday, and San Francisco's starting corners have missed practice. The risk is his status, so he's only a play if he's active.
Tight Ends and Defense
Darren Waller (TE, CAR at NO): He's 3.8%, ninth among tight ends, and New Orleans has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position. Darren Waller had eight catches for 90 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets last week. The risk is a boom-or-bust role.
Rams DST (LAR vs. ARI): They're 4.8%, seventh among defenses, and Los Angeles is sixth in defensive DVOA and third against the run. Arizona is the lowest implied total on the slate at about 15, with rookie Carson Beck making his first start and center Hjalte Froholdt in the concussion protocol. The risk is a $3,800 price.
Jaguars DST (JAX at TEN): They're 0.4%, 17th among defenses, and Jacksonville is third in defensive DVOA, fifth against the pass and second against the run. Tennessee is 1-7, is without leading receiver Carnell Tate, and is held to about 18 implied points. The risk is a $4,000 price.
Mid-Owned Plays that Still Beat the Chalk
Josh Allen (QB, BUF at NYJ): He's 8.8%, second among quarterbacks, averaging 25.7 points a game with 285 rushing yards, and the Jets are 26th in pass DVOA and 29th against No. 2 receivers. Buffalo is near 29.5 implied points. The risk is that the Bills lean on James Cook and shorten the passing volume.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX at TEN): He's 8.4%, fourth among quarterbacks, with 18 touchdown passes to four interceptions, and Tennessee is last in DVOA, last against the pass and 28th against No. 2 receivers. PFF grades Titans corners Alontae Taylor and Joshua Williams at 30.1 and 39.6 in coverage. The risk is a Jacksonville team that is a 10.5-point favorite and may run late.
Kenneth Walker (RB, KC at ATL): He's 12.0%, ninth among running backs, averaging 5.5 yards a carry, and with Jaydn Ott limited by a hamstring injury, Kenneth Walker and Emmett Johnson are the only other healthy backs. Elite skill at this ownership is worth taking even though Atlanta is 13th against running backs. The risk is a $9,200 price against a defense that is eighth against the pass.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR vs. ARI): He's 10.8%, 11th among running backs, with 36 catches, and Arizona is 26th against running backs. With Puka Nacua and Davante Adams out, the Rams are built to run, and Matthew Stafford (elbow) practiced fully. The risk is Blake Corum splitting carries in a game Los Angeles can control.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND vs. MIA): He's 10.7%, 12th among running backs, with eight rushing touchdowns, and Miami is 23rd against running backs and 27th against the run. With Josh Downs and Keenan Allen gone, Indianapolis leans on Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren. The risk is the 38.5 total, the lowest on the slate.
KC Concepcion (WR, CLE vs. HOU): He's 10.3%, 10th among receivers, on a 20.0% target share, and Houston is 29th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers. Deshaun Watson is back, and Denzel Boston (toe) has not practiced. The risk is a Texans pass rush and a Browns offense near 18 implied points.
Top NFL DFS Leverage Plays
| Higher-Owned (A) | Sal | Own% | Leverage Play (B) | Sal | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London (WR, DK) | $6,600 | 24.9% | Rashee Rice | $6,100 | 8.3% |
| Chuba Hubbard (RB, DK) | $7,200 | 24.5% | Kyren Williams | $7,100 | 10.8% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR, DK) | $8,800 | 22.8% | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | $9,300 | 8.4% |
| Tyler Warren (TE, DK) | $4,400 | 31.8% | Darren Waller | $3,600 | 3.8% |
| Texans DST (DST, DK) | $3,400 | 23.1% | Rams DST | $3,800 | 4.8% |
| Tyler Shough (QB, DK) | $5,600 | 22.7% | Bryce Young | $5,800 | 8.0% |
Rashee Rice off Drake London. Drake London faces the second-best defense against No. 1 receivers, while Atlanta is 25th against No. 2 receivers and PFF grades its starting corners well below Kansas City's. Rashee Rice is $500 cheaper at about a third of the ownership.
Kyren Williams off Chuba Hubbard. The matchups are similar, with Arizona 26th against running backs and New Orleans 25th, so this is a game-script pivot: the Rams are 9.5-point favorites and built to run, while Carolina is a 2.5-point underdog. Kyren Williams costs $100 less at less than half the ownership, with Blake Corum as the risk.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba off CeeDee Lamb. Las Vegas is 28th against No. 1 receivers with no corner graded above 55.5, while San Francisco is ninth. Jaxon Smith-Njigba costs $500 more at about a third of the ownership.
Darren Waller off Tyler Warren. Carolina-New Orleans has a 48.5 total against 38.5 for Dolphins-Colts, and both tight end matchups are similar, with New Orleans 21st and Miami 22nd. Darren Waller costs $800 less at about an eighth of the ownership, though Tyler Warren has the better role.
Rams DST off Texans DST. Arizona's rookie quarterback is making his first start without its starting center, while Houston faces Deshaun Watson and a Browns offense near 18 implied points. The Rams cost $400 more at about a fifth of the ownership.
Bryce Young off Tyler Shough. New Orleans is 29th in pass DVOA and 30th against No. 1 receivers, so Bryce Young has the same matchup in the same game. He costs $200 more at about a third of the ownership on DraftKings and 13.9% against 21.0% on FanDuel.
Best Contrarian NFL DFS Plays
Stack the stuff nobody's touching, and pair quarterbacks with their pass catchers, not their own running backs.
Seahawks-Raiders: Drew Lock with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Brock Bowers as the bring-back. Brock Bowers is averaging 17.4 points a game at 0.2% ownership, Drew Lock is 1.2%, and Las Vegas is 31st in defensive DVOA. The risk is Drew Lock's elbow and oblique injuries and Seattle leaning on the run in a 40.5-total game.
Jaguars-Titans: Trevor Lawrence with Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers if he's active. Tennessee is last in DVOA, Jacksonville is near 28.5 implied points, and the Titans' corners are among the lowest-graded in the league. Parker Washington has a 25.0% target share and five touchdowns. The risk is Jakobi Meyers (ankle) being limited and a lopsided game.
Cowboys-49ers: Dak Prescott with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens if he's active, and Brock Purdy as the bring-back. Dallas is 30th in pass DVOA and the total is 55.5, the highest on the slate. Dak Prescott (16 touchdown passes) is 7.9%, and Brock Purdy (17) is 7.3%. The risk is San Francisco's pass defense, which is 10th.
Panthers-Saints: Bryce Young with Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, and Tyler Shough as the bring-back. New Orleans is 30th against No. 1 receivers and 29th in pass DVOA. Bryce Young is 8.0%, and Jalen Coker is 26.2% on FanDuel against 10.6% on DraftKings. The risk is that Chuba Hubbard and the run game keep the Panthers' pass volume modest.
Best GPP Plays Based on Ownership
Anchor with one chalk play that earned it, then build around it with the matchup-backed low-owned and leverage names instead of fading the board.
Chalk anchor: Bijan Robinson or James Cook. Both face a defense that ranks among the worst against running backs and carry a heavy workload.
Leverage pivot: Jaxon Smith-Njigba off CeeDee Lamb, or Rashee Rice off Drake London.
Under-owned game stack: Drew Lock with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Trevor Lawrence with Parker Washington.
Defense: The Rams or the Jaguars at under 5% against the Texans and Colts pile-on.
Fade: Drake London and Woody Marks. London has the toughest receiver matchup on the slate, and Marks is a knee injury in a split backfield.
Treat all of this as a read, not a promise. News breaks fast, so check inactives one more time before you lock, especially Bhayshul Tuten and Jakobi Meyers for the Jaguars, Woody Marks and David Montgomery for the Texans, Travis Etienne in New Orleans, George Pickens in Dallas, and Garrett Wilson in New York.