Week 4 kicked off Thursday in Cleveland, where Deshaun Watson led yet another fourth-quarter drive and Andre Szmyt booted a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left to give the Browns a 27-24 win over the Steelers and first place in the AFC North. Now the rest of the board is here, and if you're hunting for the best NFL games to watch this weekend, building a DFS lineup, or just trying to figure out which NFL games this week deserve your couch time, we've got a London morning kickoff, two unbeaten teams colliding in the desert, and a Sunday night game with a 51.5 total. Big spread? Somebody's about to get run off the field. Tight line? Strap in. Total pushing past 50? Every fantasy manager I know already has three tabs open on it.

Here's the whole slate, my Game of the Week, the division fights worth your attention, the live dogs I actually like, and where the fantasy and DFS value is hiding.

 

Best NFL Games to Watch This Week

Five games separate themselves from the pack as the best NFL games to watch this week, and it's not just the number on the spread. Unbeaten records, quarterback injuries, and some wild line movement all factor in.

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET): The 49ers are 3-0 and Brock Purdy has been the best story in football, with nine touchdown passes against one interception and a 133.1 passer rating. San Francisco leads the league at 7.35 yards per play, and this is a Broncos defense that gave up 26 points to the Rams last week. Bo Nix and Denver have won back to back games the hard way, the latest a 30-26 comeback in which Nix threw two touchdown passes and ran for another. The 49ers will be without Nick Bosa again, and Mike Evans is questionable with a rib injury, so the number is only a field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET): This is the only game on the board between two unbeaten teams, and it's an AFC West fight with a 47.5 total. Kenneth Walker's 360 rushing yards lead the NFL, and Patrick Mahomes went 20 of 24 in last week's 24-10 win at Miami. Las Vegas has Kirk Cousins, whose nine touchdown passes are the most in the league, and Brock Bowers, who made his first start of the season in Week 3 and promptly caught 10 balls for 116 yards and a score. First-year coach Klint Kubiak has this team playing with real belief.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers (Sunday Night Football): A 51.5 total is tied for the highest on the board, and Carolina hasn't played on Sunday night in a decade. Jared Goff has eight touchdown passes without an interception and Jahmyr Gibbs touched the ball on 45 percent of Detroit's plays in last week's win over the Jets, scoring three times. The Panthers counter with Bryce Young, who leads the NFL with 939 passing yards, but they're expected to be without both starting cornerbacks and Jalen Coker is questionable with a quad injury. Detroit's own secondary is thin too, with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch both on the PUP list.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals: Two 2-1 teams and that same 51.5 total make this the best game of the early window. Trevor Lawrence has seven touchdown passes against two interceptions and just threw three more in a 35-6 rout of New England. Joe Burrow has six touchdowns against one interception, and the Bengals are coming off a tough road loss in Pittsburgh. Jacksonville won the AFC South at 13-4 a year ago, and this is the kind of game that tells you whether that team is for real.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles: Both teams are coming off ugly Week 3 losses. The Rams blew a 16-point lead in a 30-26 loss at Denver with Matthew Stafford throwing 55 times for 390 yards, and the Eagles scored just seven points in a Monday night loss at Chicago. Aaron Donald is out with a back injury and Puka Nacua is questionable with a groin issue after playing only in Week 1, so Davante Adams remains the guy. Philadelphia is 0-3 against the spread, which makes this a fascinating spot for Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

NFL Game of the Week

My NFL Game of the Week is Broncos at 49ers, and I'm not overthinking it. Purdy is second in the MVP odds, San Francisco's offense has been the most efficient in the league, and a Denver team that keeps finding ways to win gets a real test. The 49ers are minus a lot of pass rush with Bosa out, which is the one thing that keeps Nix in this game. If Denver can protect him and Jaylen Waddle gets loose, this has a chance to be the most entertaining game of the week. Give me this one.

My strong runner-up: Chiefs at Raiders. Walker leading the league in rushing and Cousins leading it in touchdown passes is a fun contrast, and Kansas City being only a 4.5-point favorite tells you the market respects what Kubiak has built in Las Vegas.

Best Division Matchups

Three division games on Sunday and Monday, each with a different kind of stakes, after Thursday's Turnpike thriller already shook up the AFC North.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (AFC East): Buffalo is 3-0 and a 6.5-point favorite, and Josh Allen has five passing touchdowns and six rushing scores, even in a win over the Chargers where the Bills turned it over five times. New England is 1-2 and Drake Maye has one touchdown against six interceptions, with Tommy DeVito taking five snaps in relief at Jacksonville. The Patriots are still +270, and a bounce back would be a surprise.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (AFC West): Kansas City already hammered Denver in Week 1, and Las Vegas has already beaten the Chargers. A 4.5-point spread keeps this squarely in play for a Raiders team that has the eighth-highest rush rate in the league and Ashton Jeanty to lean on.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (NFC South, Monday Night Football): Both teams are 1-2, and the Saints are 2.5-point home favorites. Michael Penix looked like a different quarterback in Atlanta's 35-14 win at Green Bay on Thursday night, averaging 10.2 yards per attempt in his first start of the season, and the Falcons ran for 242 yards. Tyler Shough has 917 passing yards and eight touchdowns, but Travis Etienne is out with a hamstring injury.

Potential NFL Upsets This Week

Want value on the underdog side? These are the NFL games this week where I think the numbers say an upset is squarely in play, and I'm not afraid to say it.

Washington Commanders (+3.5, +140 ML) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5), London: Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns without an interception in Washington's 33-31 upset of Seattle, and Jayden Daniels (dislocated elbow) is expected to sit again. Terry McLaurin is not expected to play with a hamstring injury, which hurts, but the Colts rank 28th in defensive EPA per play and Daniel Jones threw for just 235 yards in a 19-17 win over Houston. Keenan Allen is out for Indianapolis.

New York Jets (+3.5, +142 ML) @ Chicago Bears (-3.5): Caleb Williams is out three to four weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, and Tyson Bagent is expected to get the start. Geno Smith has thrown 102 passes without an interception and was 31 of 37 for 321 yards and three scores at Detroit. The Jets can't run it at 3.3 yards per carry, which is a problem, but a Bears offense without Williams is a different animal.

Dallas Cowboys (+3, +120 ML) @ Houston Texans (-3): Houston is 0-3 and hasn't scored more than 20 points since Week 1, with Nico Collins questionable for a third straight week. Dak Prescott has seven touchdowns against one interception, and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give the Cowboys more answers than a Texans team averaging 3.6 yards per carry.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3, +130 ML) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3): Home underdogs coming off their worst afternoon of the year are a classic bounce-back spot, and Los Angeles is thin at wide receiver with Nacua banged up. The Rams have also given the ball away, with Stafford at four interceptions.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, +114 ML) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5): Lawrence has looked like a different quarterback since the second half of last season, and Jacksonville has dominated two of its three games. At +114 you're getting paid to back a division champion on the road.

Best Games for Fantasy Football

If you're setting lineups, these are the best NFL games this week to chase for fantasy production. The totals already told us which offenses are getting turned loose. Listen to them.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers (51.5 total): Gibbs sits at the center of everything for Detroit, and Amon-Ra St. Brown remains Goff's go-to guy on third down. On the Carolina side, Young is throwing more than almost anyone, and with Xavier Legette out and Jalen Coker questionable, Brycen Tremayne and John Metchie both showed up last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (51.5 total): Lawrence and Burrow are both throwing the ball with confidence, which makes Ja'Marr Chase and Jacksonville's pass catchers worth a long look.

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans (48.5 total): Prescott is playing at an MVP level and Houston's defense is allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt, so CeeDee Lamb and Pickens are in a prime spot.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders (47.5 total): Two defenses that have stopped very little meet in London, and the Colts rank 28th in defensive EPA per play. Jonathan Taylor is the key on the Colts side, and with Mariota airing it out and McLaurin likely out, Stefon Diggs is worth watching in Washington.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (47.5 total): Walker's volume is the headline, and Mahomes and Travis Kelce are always in play. Cousins and Bowers make Las Vegas a real two-way game.

Best Games for DFS

For DFS, you want a high total paired with a spread tight enough to keep both offenses on the field deep into the fourth quarter. That combo is where the real, usable value hides on any given slate.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals: A 51.5 total with a 2.5-point spread is the cleanest split-game environment on the board. Lawrence and Burrow both stack well with their top pass catchers.

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans: A 48.5 total with a 3-point spread sets up a back-and-forth game. Prescott and Lamb on one side, C.J. Stroud on the other with Collins' status hanging over it.

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers: A 47.5 total and a field-goal spread make this a rock-solid game stack. Purdy is the engine, and Nix gets a chance to throw from behind.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers: With the highest total on the board and Carolina's secondary decimated, Goff stacks are the obvious play, and Young's volume gives you a natural bring-back.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders: A 47.5 total with a 4.5-point spread makes this a nice game to build around. Pair Mahomes or Walker with a Cousins or Bowers bring-back and you're covered if it turns into a shootout.

 

Best NFL Games to Watch This Sunday 10/4

Sunday, October 4 carries the bulk of the Week 4 slate, and it's stacked from a London kickoff to a prime-time finale. Here's how the day breaks down by window.

9:30 AM ET Window (London)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders: Colts favored by 3.5, total of 47.5. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor against Marcus Mariota, with Terry McLaurin not expected to play.

1:00 PM ET Window

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: Bills favored by 6.5, total of 48.5. Josh Allen and James Cook against Drake Maye.

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears: Bears favored by 3.5, total of 43.5. Geno Smith against Tyson Bagent, who is expected to start with Caleb Williams out.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals favored by 2.5, total of 51.5, tied for the highest of the day. Trevor Lawrence against Joe Burrow.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Cardinals favored by 2.5, total of 44.5. Jacoby Brissett, with Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and rookie Jeremiyah Love, against Jameis Winston, who is replacing the injured Jaxson Dart. Malik Nabers practiced in full after his shoulder scare, and the Giants are also without Brian Burns (torn ACL).

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles: Rams favored by 3, total of 43.5. Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams against Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, with Aaron Donald out.

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Packers favored by 3.5, total of 38.5, the lowest of the early window. Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb, so rookie Jalon Daniels is expected to make his first start for 0-3 Tampa Bay. Jordan Love and Christian Watson, who had seven catches for 96 yards and a score last week, are 1-2 after a 35-14 loss to Atlanta.

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens favored by 11.5, total of 42.5, the largest spread of the day. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry against Cam Ward, who has two touchdown passes all season.

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans: Texans favored by 3, total of 48.5. Dak Prescott against C.J. Stroud.

4:05 PM ET Window

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings: Vikings favored by 10.5, total of 38.5, the lowest on the board. Kyler Murray leads the 3-0 Vikings without Justin Jefferson (ankle), who is out, while 0-3 Miami has lost De'Von Achane to a torn ACL and turns to Malik Willis and Ollie Gordon.

4:25 PM ET Window

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders: Chiefs favored by 4.5, total of 47.5. Mahomes and Kenneth Walker against Cousins and Bowers.

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers: 49ers favored by 3, total of 47.5. Bo Nix against Brock Purdy.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks favored by 7, total of 42.5. Sam Darnold, who threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns in a stunning 33-31 loss at Washington, hosts an 0-3 Chargers team. Justin Herbert has three touchdowns against four interceptions, David Njoku is on injured reserve, and Ladd McConkey is questionable with a foot injury.

8:20 PM ET Window

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers: The Sunday Night Football headliner, Lions favored by 3.5, total of 51.5. Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs against Bryce Young.

Monday Night Football (10/5)

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: Saints favored by 2.5, total of 47.5. Michael Penix against Tyler Shough in a division game to close out the week.

Wherever your Sunday takes you, this slate delivers. Bookmark this page before kickoff, and check back every single week for the best NFL games to watch across Thursday, Sunday, and Monday all season long.