2023 Fantasy Football Week 4 Target Report Preview: Don't Sleep on Deebo Samuel

Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. And to earn a target, you need to be deemed “open” by the quarterback. It’s one big trickle-down effect. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent target-earners are near the top of fantasy football ADP: They can be relied on by not just their team’s offense to earn targets and produce on those targets, but that also trickles down to the fantasy managers drafting those pass-catchers and starting them in their lineups each week.

In this season’s Fantasy Football Target Report, we’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. To properly lead into what we’ll be looking at this season, we’ll have to establish a baseline of the most important things we’re looking at with targets and other receiving metrics that paint the full picture for who we should be rostering, who we should be adding, and who we can drop. Combing the box score stats doesn’t paint a clear picture of the players we should target, roster, and start. Fantasy football rankings can only paint so much of the picture as well.

Everything we’ll be talking about here and this season in this season’s Fantasy Football Target Report will be some of the best statistics and metrics that correlate with fantasy football production. Think of targets as a page in a coloring book, just the outline yet to be colored. Coloring on that page adds context and flavor to that page. That’s what we’ll be doing with targets — adding more context than just some target totals and saying, “go add this player,” which doesn’t help anybody.

This season, we're adding a video component, so if you want to get some of the juiciest nuggets of the target report in video form, check out the Target Report Bulletpoints for Week 4!

Bye Weeks:

• Week 5: CLE, LAC, SEA, TB
• Week 6: GB, PIT
• Week 7: CAR, CIN, DAL, HOU, NYJ, TEN
• Week 9: DEN, DET, JAX, SF
• Week 10: KC, LAR, MIA, PHI
• Week 11: ATL, IND, NE, NO
• Week 13: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG
• Week 14: ARI, WAS

NOTE:

Always Start Your Studs: These are players you should be starting in all formats, regardless of matchup. Use your judgment in shallower leagues where startable players are plentiful.

Start ‘Em: Players that should be starting most weeks on your fantasy rosters.

Keep Them Rostered: Players that should be rostered in most formats but shouldn't be started unless you’re in a pinch or during bye weeks. Maybe they’re not startable due to various issues like a backup quarterback playing, a player coming back from injury, a contingent running back, or are just unproductive, consistent, or dependable at the moment. League size designations or other designations (bench stash, etc.) will be in parenthesis next to players for deeper leagues. Depending on your league, this is a general recommendation, so use your best judgment.

Example: Parris Campbell (deeper 12 & 14-team), Jerome Ford (bench stash).

Add ‘Em: Players that warrant an add due to circumstances, productivity, or metrics that show they’re being utilized heavily in their offenses. These will usually have a format in which they should be added. 

Listing a player as “12-team leagues” assumes that player also be an addition in deeper 12-team and 14-team formats as well. 

Dump ‘Em: Players that you should be dropping from your rosters. Use your judgment in deeper leagues where players with usefulness on waivers aren’t as plentiful.

Any player not listed in any of these categories for a particular team is assumed to not be rosterable in most fantasy formats.

NFL Target Report
Arizona Cardinals

I'm not sure anybody saw this one coming, but you have to give the Cardinals some credit: they’ve been pretty competitive in all three games for a team that has zero reason to be. This upset over the Cowboys in Week 3 capped it off.

No surprise here, as James Conner reigns supreme over all running backs in Arizona, with his utilization hitting 70% of all running back opportunities in Week 3.

The Cardinals only threw the ball 21 times, so Zach Ertz (two targets, 2-6) couldn’t “Jason Witten” his way into a bunch of catches for 11 yards. He only received two targets on 64% of routes — a season-low. In fact, Ertz’s routes have fallen each week from a 91% high in Week 1. He’s trending downward big time, and it could be in favor of the much more athletic Trey McBride, who hasn’t quite taken over the routes or production, but he was a second-round pick last season and flashed when Ertz was injured.

The only real wide receiver highlights here were Marquise Brown (team-leading seven targets, 5-61-1) catching a short touchdown late on 100% route participation and Rondale Moore (six targets, 4-8; 45-yard rushing TD) getting a long touchdown on the ground to cap a WR24 finish on the week.

Week 3 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Marquise Brown, James Conner

Keep Them Rostered: Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz (deeper 12 & 14-team), Michael Wilson (deeper 14-team)

Add ‘Em: Trey McBride (speculative add if you’re in need of tight end production deeper into the season)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Atlanta Falcons

Arthur Smith’s bad karma from the fantasy football community finally reared its ugly head as Smith’s Falcons could only muster six points on the road against the Detroit Lions.

If this isn’t a microcosm for Kyle Pitts’ NFL career so far, I don’t know what is.

Do tight ends typically burn defensive backs? Pitts (nine targets, 5-41, 89% route participation) led the Falcons in every receiving category in Week 3, but you know, bless their hearts, they actually tried to get Pitts the ball.

Drake London (six targets, 2-31, 92% of routes) had a 28-yard catch, which would be about it for him for Week 3. Jonnu Smith (5-37) earned eight targets for some reason. I legitimately couldn’t tell you why.

Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 45 rushing and 44 receiving yards as they both were bottled up by the Lions. The split was essentially the same as last week, with Robinson taking 75% of the routes and 80% of the snaps and Allgeier grabbing the rest.

Week 3 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Bijan Robinson

Start ‘Em: Drake London, Kyle Pitts (start if you have no better options)

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler Allgeier (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Baltimore Ravens

The backfield has turned sour like milk you forgot in the fridge. It’s gotten moldy, just like the running backs who worked in with Gus Edwards. Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake both mixed into the rotation, with Gordon playing 40% of the snaps to Edwards’ 44%. Gordon ran the most routes of the trio but took a lot of the early-down work from Edwards as well.

Getting Justice Hill may muddy things up here post-J.K. Dobbins, so I can’t imagine starting any of these running backs unless it’s 1) bye week szn, or 2) the workload consolidates considerably to two of the backs. Otherwise, you can’t trust any of them.

Zay Flowers (8-48, 100% route participation) is Rondale Moore but much quicker, and his team actually uses him consistently. Flowers earned 10 targets at a low 2.8-yard aDOT, so it was mostly line-of-scrimmage looks for him, but hey, the Ravens are making a concerted effort to drum up touches and schemed looks for him, and that’s what we want.

What we DON’T want is Nelson Agholor (four targets, 4-39) seeing more routes (87%) than Rashod Bateman (three targets. 1-6) in a week that Odell Beckham was out. If there is one slight saving grace, it’s that Bateman has increased his routes each week from 57% to this week’s 74%. That’s why he has as long of a leash as he does.

Week 3 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews

Start ‘Em: Zay Flowers

Keep Them Rostered: Odell Beckham (missed Week 3 - ankle), Gus Edwards, Justice Hill (missed Week 3 - toe; deeper 12 & 14-team), Rashod Bateman (I’d say hold, but he’s much closer to being an outright drop than a hold. One more week.)

Add ‘Em: Melvin Gordon (he’s… cheap?)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs dominated the Bills’ passing game with 39% of targets and an 8-111 line on 12 targets. In a blowout, there was really only room for him to earn targets here. Gabe Davis (1-35-1) scored a touchdown with his only reception on four targets.

Both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid ran routes on 66-69% of dropbacks, and both saw two targets each. That won’t cut it, and the fantasy faithful who were hoping they would get what we’ve seen from Sam LaPorta and, to a lesser degree, Luke Musgrave have to be disappointed. 

James Cook (15 carries, three targets) still has the stranglehold on this offense with Latavius Murray (five carries, one target) working in ahead of Damien Harris. Cook still had 62% of all running back opportunities in a blowout win, which should tell you just who is getting the work in this backfield. 

Week 3 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs

Start ‘Em: James Cook

Keep Them Rostered: Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid (borderline 12-team starter), Dawson Knox (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Carolina Panthers

I mean, Andy Dalton had 58 pass attempts and 63 total dropbacks, so you can imagine how this went for some of the pass-catchers here. Four receivers earned six or more targets, with Adam Thielen (14 targets, 11-145-1) and D.J. Chark (11 targets, 4-86-1) earning double-digits and scoring touchdowns. Even Miles Sanders had nine of them! The main thread here is that with Dalton under center, this offense is going to have a ton of volume.

It’s clear Bryce Young is struggling in a way most young quarterbacks do in the NFL and it’s his job as long as he’s healthy. Still, if Young can’t make this offense function, it’s not great for any of the pass-catchers. Thielen is clearly a fading star on a team that’s finding pieces to use for the future, so if a sell-high moment exists for Thielen, it’s right this second.

Miles Sanders (82% of RB opportunities) is still a dead-zone running back, despite what people will tell you about “WORKLOAD” and “VOLUME ONLY MATTERING”. Efficiency matters too, and he’s not been great. Nine targets certainly help, but that’s likely his season high this season by a large margin. Sanders’ not-so-great efficiency isn’t probably enough of a concern to make Chuba Hubbard a real, actual thing in fantasy outside of a contingency basis. Sanders’ workload is safe for now.

Week 3 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo (deeper 12 & 14-team; left Week 3 - concussion), Chuba Hubbard (deeper 12 & 14-team), D.J. Chark (deeper 12 & 14-team), Bryce Young (deeper 12 & 14-team; missed Week 3 - ankle)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Hayden Hurst (it’s Joever.)

Chicago Bears

If I were Bears’ principal owner Virginia McCaskey, I would have tried to set any eligible Chicago Bear up with Taylor Swift for the Karma alone. It’s the only thing that would have been modern about the Bears. Sadly, she was rooting for the other side — the Kansas City Chiefs — and the Chiefs throttled the Bears 41-10. This game, Bears fans will remember it All Too Well.

Justin Fields threw for 99 yards. DJ Moore (3-41-1) caught the only touchdown, took 30% of targets, and accounted for almost half of Fields’ passing yards. He was also the only Bear who caught more than two passes. This team is in shambles.

Roschon Johnson (53% of all RB opportunities) might soon be a thing in this offense, but the offense is bad, so that’s an unfortunate thing to deal with. Still, Khalil Herbert and Johnson are about neck and neck now with Johnson trailing slightly in snaps (55% to 45%) and routes (41% to 31%). Both are low-end flex plays, but the door has been open for a little bit for Johnson to steal more opportunity away.

Week 3 Chicago Bears Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Justin Fields, DJ Moore

Keep Them Rostered: Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson (developing standalone role), Cole Kmet (deeper 12 & 14-team), Darnell Mooney (14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Cincinnati Bengals

A passing game you can set your watch to: Ja’Marr Chase (15 targets, 12-141, he’s back, folks.), Tee Higgins (eight targets, 2-21) and Tyler Boyd (nine targets, 5-31) accounted for 70% of the Bengals’ targets in Week 3 and all ran at least 88% of routes per dropback. A tale as old as time. 

Joe Burrow still doesn’t look super GREAT, but he looked better here. It’s still an offense that will pass a ton in all game scripts but haven’t been very efficient with it. If the bargain-basement floor is a ton of volume but acting like the Buccaneers last season with Tom Brady, that’s a pretty good floor.

Joe Mixon is solid and dominating the backfield (19 carries, two targets) adding a score in the third quarter.

Week 3 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow (still recovering from calf injury, was a GTD for Week 3), Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler Boyd, Irv Smith (deeper 12 & 14-team, missed Week 3 - hamstring), Trayveon Williams (14-team leagues; contingent back)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Cleveland Browns

The Browns took a trip down the Tennessee Titans’ pass funnel and Deshaun Watson had his best game as a Cleveland Brown. Only six Browns caught a pass but Amari Cooper (eight targets, 7-116-1, 95% routes) and Elijah Moore (nine targets, 9-49, 92% routes) combined for over half of the Browns’ targets. Moore’s 1.1-yard aDOT was a bit concerning, but the volume made it work in Week 3.

In the post-Nick Chubb era for the Browns, Jerome Ford (50% of all RB opportunities, rushing TD) saw just shy of 60%/60% (routes/snaps) in Week 3, with Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong getting some throwaway carries later on when the game was well in hand.

Week 3 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Jerome Ford (first crack at back) 

Keep Them Rostered: David Njoku (just 11 targets and 20 air yards on the season, huh?), Kareem Hunt (deep 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Pierre Strong (saw mostly late-late game work behind Hunt)

Dallas Cowboys

Just when you think the Cowboys have turned a corner and might be the class of the NFC, they give everybody the biggest rug pull of the season so far by losing to Jonathan Gannon’s Cardinals. To be fair, Gannon is pretty familiar with the Cowboys from his time with the Eagles, but still. This is pretty #bad.

In the trailing script, Dak Prescott got to sling it for 40 pass attempts, but Michael Gallup (seven targets, 6-92, 81% routes) was the only player who really did anything usable with it, and nobody started him. CeeDee Lamb ran a bunch of routes (94%) and went for a so-so 4-53 on seven targets. Just bad all around in the passing game.

Tony Pollard is leading (and dominating) the NFL in high-value touches, as he’s averaging 9.3 HVTs per game and per Rotoviz, leads the NFL by 3.7 per game among running backs who have played in at least two games. The Cowboys offense has been a HVT goldmine through three weeks and it’s going to flow through Pollard. You love to see it.

Week 3 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard

Start ‘Em: Dak Prescott (borderline 12-team starter)

Keep Them Rostered: Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup (deeper 12 & 14-team), Jake Ferguson (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Denver Broncos

Impeach Sean Payton.

Karmically, the Broncos deserve it for not playing Marvin Mims (11 routes, 12 less than Brandon Johnson)

Courtland Sutton (11 targets, 8-91-1, 95% routes) looks legitimately as good as he’s looked in a long time, thinking before his ACL tear in 2019/2020. He almost had three touchdowns on the day (again, blame Johnson) and has been the preferred target for Russell Wilson so far this season. Jerry Jeudy (seven targets, 5-81) also had his best game of the young season, so maybe there’s some room here for the Broncos to possibly have two fantasy starters and a lid lifter in Mims, but he’s got to get the routes. He’s a hold on benches for now. 

The Broncos’ progression of Javonte Williams (30% routes/42% snaps)is still in a bit of a holding pattern as he’s being worked in pretty slowly. You’ve still got to start him, but the routes and everything else should develop more as we get further into the season.

Week 3 Denver Broncos Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Javonte Williams

Start ‘Em: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy

Keep Them Rostered: Samaje Perine (contingent play with a little standalone value), Russell Wilson, Marvin Mims

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Detroit Lions

Only four Lions caught a pass in Week 3, but that’s definitely fine as we still got fantasy goodness from the guys we love, and Kalif Raymond. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown (12 targets, 9-102, 100% route participation) is #good. 

Sam LaPorta (11 targets, 8-84-1, 82% routes) is awesome. Back in my day, people told us that rookie tight ends didn’t produce in their first year because almost every tight end not named Evan Engram was not good. Well, LaPorta IS good and has the talent PLUS the opportunity to take advantage of here. LaPorta is averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game, has the second-highest target share among tight ends at 22.7%, has the highest yards per route run of any tight end with 10+ targets at 2.19, the fifth-highest targets per route run at 26%, is there anything he can’t do? LaPorta deserves to be in the same breath as the elites at the tight end position. 

For the rest of the season, it goes Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller, then LaPorta. He’s a top-five tight end and a must-start going forward. Lock him in.

Without David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs took more of the prototypical running back role, was pretty efficient (4.7 YPC on 19 carries) and took 73% of RB opportunities in Week 3. Craig Reynolds and Zonovan Knight took quite a bit of the low-value touches (33% - 7-of-21) off of Gibbs’ plate. Still, I’m very much bullish here as it did a bit to quell some “Gibbs is a satellite back” talk, which is preposterous.

Week 3 Detroit Lions Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Start ‘Em: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery (missed Week 3 - thigh)

Keep Them Rostered: Josh Reynolds (deeper 12-team leagues), Jameson Williams (suspended for 6 games; stash in deeper 12-team leagues)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Green Bay Packers

Well, the Packers were legitimately #notgreat for three quarters until they turned everything on in the fourth quarter. Cardiac Pack, anyone?

Romeo Doubs was the clear star here for the Packers as he caught the go-ahead touchdown and added a relatively inefficient (but we’ll take it!) five catches and 83 yards on 12 targets. He also ran routes on 86% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks as one of the trio (including Jayden Reed) that will pair with Christian Watson’s eventual return, which looks like it will be in Week 4 against the Lions. Dontayvion Wicks (six targets, 4-45, 68% routes) is looking like Watson’s direct backup rather than somebody who is going to be contributing heavily to this young receiving corps.

A.J. Dillon’s 3.0 YPC is not doing himself any favors and has really dropped his stock big time with Aaron Jones’ absence. It’s been so bad that Patrick Taylor and Emanuel Wilson even worked him behind Dillon in a competitive game on a team that, when healthy, only uses the third running back on special teams or in blowouts. That’s pretty damning for Dillon.

Week 3 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Aaron Jones (missed Week 3 - hamstring)

Start ‘Em: Christian Watson (missed Week 1-3 - hamstring)

Keep Them Rostered: Romeo Doubs, Jordan Love, Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed, AJ Dillon

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Houston Texans

We touched on this the first two weeks of the season, but the Texans are an #exciting offense again! Honestly, the Texans hit on C.J. Stroud in a big way, and he (as well as PFF Bobby Slowik, offensive coordinator) transformed this offense and lifted the boats of Nico Collins (three targets, 2-34), Robert Woods (six targets, 3-34), and most notably, rookie Tank Dell. Dell (seven targets, 5-145-1) looks like a legit future star so far after three weeks.

Dalton Schultz (7-47 in three games COMBINED), what is it you say you do here? He’s been a poor fit, and Stroud doesn’t seem so inclined to target him consistently.

Week 3 Houston Texans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Tank Dell

Keep Them Rostered: C.J. Stroud, Dameon Pierce, Robert Woods, C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz (14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Indianapolis Colts

I just want to say this hurts me too, with quite a bit of exposure to Alec Pierce (seven targets, 3-43, 94% routes). Still, Josh Downs (12 targets, 8-57, 84% routes) is the guy we want here as an actual target earner out of the slot. Downs’ role has expanded bit by bit each week, and Pierce is essentially MVS right now. Not #good.

Michael Pittman (11 targets, 9-77, 100% routes) has been excellent so far, and it making me eat some crow too, which is crazy considering that a lot of these Colts pieces on offense were so cheap in drafts, especially in the passing game. Pittman has earned at least 11 targets in each game, and hey, we can’t scoff at that. Gardner Minshew has been solid for the volume aspect of this passing game, where we didn’t know if that would be present in the Anthony Richardson version of this offense.

Zack Moss saw a whopping 32 touches even with Moss losing about half of his routes, but that’s alright if he’s seeing that kind of volume weekly. The Jonathan Taylor question will be answered after Week 4…

Week 3 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Michael Pittman

Start ‘Em: Anthony Richardson (missed Week 3 - concussion), Zack Moss

Keep Them Rostered: Jonathan Taylor (PUP until Week 5), Josh Downs

Add ‘Em: Josh Downs (snatched WR2 role from Alec Pierce)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Jacksonville Jaguars

The thing about Jacksonville: what if they just ran hot at the end of last season? They’re probably still a really good football team and I’m just vamping here. I truly want to believe.

After Calvin Ridley’s Week 1, where we thought he was back, he’s followed that up with five receptions for 72 yards in his next two games combined. The offense really just feels okay but not great, but the steam needs to get picked up here.

Christian Kirk (six targets, 4-54-1) found the end zone on six targets, and Evan Engram (eight targets, 7-67) led the team in most receiving categories, except swag. That went to “Swagnew” himself, Jamal Agnew (five targets, 4-49), who saw 65% of routes with Zay Jones inactive.

Tank Bigsby stole another touchdown on two carries, and I wrote my congressman a strongly-worded letter about how these crimes against Travis Etienne (75% of all RB opportunities) cannot go unpunished.

Week 3 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence

Start ‘Em: Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Zay Jones (deeper 12 & 14-team leagues)

Keep Them Rostered: Tank Bigsby (contingent and apparently a touchdown-stealing play too)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Kansas City Chiefs

If bet if Taylor Swift were to Speak Now, we could get some clarity on the Chiefs’ wide receiver room. The only piece of clarity (maybe?) is that Rashee Rice (seven targets, 5-59, 51% routes) might be the best player in that room. He earned the second-most targets next to Travis Kelce (eight targets, 7-59-1, 71% routes - still growing) and had two touchdowns gift-wrapped but was down both times at the 1-yard-line. It's tough stuff, but if there’s anybody with real room to grow in his routes based on his performance, it’s Rice. The rest of the room has been that bad. I’m about done with Skyy Moore (4-42), as he’s hit a season-low 50% routes despite earning six targets. Forgetting him was like tryin' to know somebody you never met.

The running back room is still a gross split, but Jerick McKinnon caught two touchdowns on just 32% routes. He let us know he’s still alive, but McKinnon (32% routes / 29% snaps) is not exactly a player you need to be jamming into lineups with the way Isiah Pacheco (39% / 42%) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (20% / 30%) work into this three-headed backfield.

Week 3 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes

Start ‘Em: Isiah Pacheco

Keep Them Rostered: Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Jerick McKinnon (deeper 12 & 14-team leagues), Rashee Rice (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: Rashee Rice (long-term viable Chiefs WR; say no more)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Las Vegas Raiders

72% of the team’s targets went to Davante Adams (19 targets, 13-172-2) and the returning Jakobi Meyers (12 targets, 7-85). That’s pretty good.

I’m willing to capitulate a bit on the Davante Adams concern; I had Adams as a fade in the first round and was steadfast in that Jimmy Garoppolo was a bad match for Adams’ skillset. Clearly, that hasn’t been the case, and I get to eat the crow of those decisions for the rest of the season. But hey, at least I have Garrett Wilson, right?

This offense is so concentrated that nobody else really matters. Josh Jacobs (82% snaps, 63% routes) SHOULD matter but really hasn’t in three weeks. Could his 2022 be an extreme outlier? I’d say Jacobs (83 total yards, 22-of-25 running back opportunities in Week 3) is better than he’s shown but not as good to sustain his 2022 production into 2023, but the truth is somewhere in the middle. I do like him as a buy-low for fantasy managers looking to pick up a big regression candidate for pennies on the dollar.

Week 3 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs

Start ‘Em: Jakobi Meyers

Keep Them Rostered: N/A

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Los Angeles Chargers

With Mike Williams going down to an ACL tear that will sit him down for the rest of 2023, our next question revolves around the next man up for the Chargers: Joshua Palmer or Quentin Johnston?

Palmer has run routes on 68% of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks this season, and before his Week 3, Palmer had a grand total of three targets and two receptions for 11 yards. Once Williams left, Palmer ran 100% of the routes, and the Chargers used much more 12 personnel, with Donald Parham getting on the field more, which is certainly suboptimal if you’ve got shares of Johnston. Palmer will get the immediate routes spike in this offense as more of the short to intermediate route player. Johnston has only run a route on 28% of Herbert’s dropbacks this season but has the best chance of filling the Mike Williams role in this Chargers offense as a deeper average depth of target boundary-type wide receiver. We’re wondering if his routes will jump up and get on the field more for fantasy goodness. To answer that, I’ll quote Axl Rose, “All we need is just a little patience.”

Palmer will have the immediate target-earning role in Los Angeles, and both Palmer and Johnston should be added if they’re available. The Chargers are top-10 in three-WR sets at 59%, so with the passing volume definitely there, there’s room for both Palmer and Johnston in the target tree for the Chargers, but don’t be surprised if it’s more Palmer in the short-term and Johnston getting the routes spike and being the long-term Chargers WR play later on in the season.

At least Keenan Allen — the WR1 through three weeks who earned a whopping 20 targets and put up an 18-215 line in Week 3— is a full-blown stud.

Week 3 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler (missed Week 2-3 - ankle)

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Joshua Kelley, Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnson

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Mike Williams (out for season - torn ACL)

Los Angeles Rams

When a defense wants to scheme against your best offensive player (Puka Nacua) and he STILL puts up 5-72 on seven targets, I’d say that’s pretty bullish. 

Scoring the lone touchdown in Week 3 for the Rams was Tutu Atwell (nine targets, 4-50-1) — the torch-bearer of Short King Summer. Besides Atwell, Tyler Higbee (5-71) earned five targets in his best game of 2023. If this offense can be Nacua, Atwell, and Cooper Kupp once he returns, anybody would take that.

Sean McVay has said he does want another running back to mix in with Kyren Williams, but he was the only running back who earned a snap in Week 3 for the Rams. Ride the wave, even if Williams was a bit normal (10 carries, 38 yards; seven targets, 2-27) this week.

Week 3 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Cooper Kupp (IR - hamstring; eligible to return in Week 5), Puca Nacua

Start ‘Em: Kyren Williams

Keep Them Rostered: Tutu Atwell, Matthew Stafford, Tyler Higbee

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Van Jefferson (He stinks and you can do better. Will be vaporized once Kupp returns)

Miami Dolphins

So unless you’ve been living under a rock, the Miami Dolphins put up 70 points on the Denver Broncos and essentially did anything they wanted to do. Mike McDaniel has the fastest collection of weapons in the NFL, one of them being De’Von Achane. Achane put up 203 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns. His backfield mate Raheem Mostert also put up four total touchdowns on the day, so our job here is to dissect what this means going forward for Achane for fantasy purposes.

Looking at this in black and white is probably the wrong way to look at it. I’m not thinking of this entire backfield as “what specific role will each player have”, as it’s pretty evident that a head coach will utilize the speed and explosiveness of Achane and scheme touches and opportunities for him each week. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle. To quote Ben Gretch, “you can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube”.

Achane obviously isn’t going to be putting up 200 yards and four touchdowns each week, but we know the upside here because we’ve SEEN it. Mostert has been the workhorse so far this season. Jeff Wilson is coming back in Week 5. Normally, I’d be worried about a pie being split multiple ways, but this isn’t any run-of-the-mill offense we’re talking about. No offense has more upside than this one and you want a piece or multiple pieces of THE most explosive offense in football.

Oh, and Tyreek Hill (11 targets, 9-157-1) is pretty good too. The scariest part? The Dolphins scored 70 points without Jaylen Waddle.

Week 3 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle (missed Week 3 - concussion), Tua Tagovailoa

Start ‘Em: Raheem Mostert, DeVon Achane

Keep Them Rostered: Jeff Wilson (IR - rib/finger)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Durham Smythe (flipped snaps/routes with UDFA Julian Hill)