NFL Target Analysis: Week 13

We talk all the time about the context of targets. Getting a ton of targets is great, but I’d rather have 89 targets from Dak Prescott than 109 targets from Ryan Finley or Andy Dalton . Context plays a big role in evaluating the targets from Week 13 as well. The weather limited the passing attack in the SF vs. BAL game, though it played less of a factor in GB vs. NYG than many anticipated. It may be tempted to hold Marquise Brown ’s two Week 13 targets against him, but I think that would be a mistake, given the context. Let’s look at the context for several other notable target numbers from last week and the entire season.

Target Analysis

• Jack Doyle led the Colts with 11 targets in the first game with Eric Ebron on IR. He was second to Zach Pascal in receptions and yards, but he caught Jacoby Brissett ’s only touchdown. Doyle is a no-doubt fantasy starter the rest of the way, but we should know better than to trust Zach Pascal . Pascal had four catches for 43 yards total before his big game against the Titans.
• Last week, I nearly benched Kenny Golladay for Jamison Crowder . Golladay, of course, outscored Crowder by 23 fantasy points. There were, and are, good reasons to consider benching Golladay. He has five targets or fewer in three straight games. He has four receptions or fewer in five straight games, including all four since Matthew Stafford went down. I think the bar for benching Golladay is higher after he torched the Bears in the first half last week, but I am still looking for an excuse to bench him.
• Let Kenny Golladay ’s Thanksgiving Day extravaganza be a cautionary tale for anyone considering benching Tyler Lockett this week. Locket only has nine targets in his last three games, which is worse than even Golladay, but Like Golladay, it only takes one catch for Lockett to have a good fantasy game. I think I would play Golladay over Lockett, but I would hate myself if I got knocked out of the playoffs because I benched either of those guys.
• Mike Gesicki has at least six targets in five straight games, and he has touchdowns in two straight after getting shut out in the first 10 games of the season. Gesicki will likely be a fantasy starter the rest of this season, and he looks like a high-upside target next season
• Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with 90 targets this season, including 36 targets over his last three games. He’s obviously a must-start no matter what, but if you have to face him in the fantasy playoffs, there may be a reason for hope. With Ron Rivera gone, you’d have to think there is a decent chance someone in the organization decides to cut back on his touches. McCaffrey is on pace for 413 touches, which would be the most in the NFL since DeMarco Murray in 2014. McCaffrey could easily go back to scoring 30 fantasy points per game, but I wouldn’t want to trust him for DFS.
• I look at the NFL target leaderboard every single week, and I was still surprised to see Leonard Fournette second on the list among running backs. Fournette had a career-high 12 targets in Week 12 and followed that up with 11 targets last week. I suspect the Jaguars will keep this game close and his targets will go back down to normal, but I didn’t really expect the Jaguars to get blown out by Tennessee or Tampa Bay, either.
• James White had 11 targets last week to move him up to fifth among running backs this season. This has been a very quiet season for White, in part because he only has one touchdown, but he is 15th in fantasy points among running backs in PPR, with double-digit fantasy points in 10 of his 12 games. He is a safe flex alternative to all of the risky receivers mentioned above.
• Robert Woods has 39 targets over his last three games. He’s moved into Kenny Golladay /Tyler Lockett /Calvin Ridley territory for me, and I would put him behind Golladay and Lockett but behind Ridley. I just feel like the one thing we can count on with the Rams is that as soon as we know which player(s) to trust, the rug gets pulled out from underneath us. Remember when Cooper Kupp was third in fantasy points among wide receivers five weeks through the season, and everyone said he was safe because he was Jared Goff ’s security blanket? Kupp is averaging 5.8 targets, 3.8 receptions and 38.3 receiving yards over his last four games. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Kupp, Brandin Cooks or one of the tight ends leads the Rams in targets this week.
• Tyler Boyd only caught half of his 10 targets Sunday, but he had 59 receiving yards and a touchdown. I feel like I may have overstated last week how much better Andy Dalton is than Ryan Finley. Dalton isn’t great, and neither is Boyd, but I feel like there is very little chance of Boyd only getting three targets as he did with Finley in Week 11. Boyd is seventh in the NFL in targets this season, and while I doubt he finishes nearly that high next season, he is safe for the rest of this one.
• You probably don’t want to use Anthony Miller in the fantasy playoffs, especially against Dallas and Green Bay the next two weeks, but we shouldn’t ignore his 33 targets over the last three weeks, either. He still doesn’t have a touchdown this season, but that should change soon if he continues to be such a big part of the offense.