NFC South Fantasy Football Coaching Guide 2026: Schemes, Play Calling & Player Outlooks
Atlanta Falcons
- Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (Offensive Play Caller)
- Offensive Coordinator: Tommy Rees
- Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich (Defensive Play Caller)
- Offensive System: West Coast Offense – Relies upon short, high-percentage pass plays instead of power rushing. The short passes set up outside runs and deep passes in hopes of surprising the defense. There is a high volume of plays in a West Coast system.
Falcons Offensive Breakdown
Welcome to Dirty Birds territory. The Atlanta Falcons basically took the Cleveland Browns' coaching staff and transposed them straight to Georgia, hoping a simple change of scenery and personnel is all it takes to cook up magic. But the secret sauce here? Bringing in legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan. Callahan worked absolute wonders under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland, and he is the exact, steadying presence needed to stabilize what was a tumultuous offseason up front.
The biggest storyline in camp is a legitimate quarterback derby between third-year gunslinger Michael Penix and quick-release passer Tua Tagovailoa. This new front office and coaching staff have zero loyalty to Penix, and whoever wins the job determines this team's pass-game identity. Toss in the surprise retirement of right tackle Kaleb McGary, which leaves former Chiefs tackle Jawaan Taylor protecting the blind side for these lefty QBs, and the priorities are crystal clear.
| Falcons Blocking Scheme - 2025 | |
| Block Type | % of Plays |
| Outside Zone | 50.5% |
| Power/Gap | 23.5% |
| Inside Zone | 13.0% |
| Wide Zone | 10.5% |
| Pin & Pull | 2.3% |
| Falcons Personnel Package - 2025 | |
| Grouping (#RB-#TE) | % of Plays |
| 1-1 (3WR) | 45.1% |
| 1-2 (2WR) | 38.4% |
| 2-1 (2RB) | 9.2% |
| 1-3 (1WR) | 6.8% |
| 2-2 (2TE) | 0.5% |
| 1-0 (4WR) | 0.0% |
| 0-1 (4WR) | 0.0% |
| 2-0 (3WR) | 0.0% |
| 0-2 (3WR) | 0.0% |
The Ground Game: Callahan’s Wide-Zone & The 400-Point Bijan Season
Make no mistake: regardless of who plays quarterback, this Atlanta offense flows entirely through Bijan Robinson on the ground and through the air.
- The Wide-Zone Shift with Duo Tweaks: Callahan and Stefanski initially planned to install a heavy power/gap blocking scheme. But after McGary’s retirement and the realization that Bijan was the second-best wide-zone runner in the NFL over the past two seasons, smart coaching prevailed. They installed a wide-zone base paired with heavy duo-gap mix-ins. Those duo runs keep linebackers honest, so they can't just flow laterally with the zone stretch.
- Vacated Touches & Backfield Depth: Free agency claimed Tyler Allgeier, leaving 157 vacated backfield touches up for grabs. Atlanta brought in Brian Robinson, who should steal some short-yardage work, but Allgeier's departure only further solidifies Bijan’s spot at the very top of overall fantasy running back rankings.
- The Fantasy Bottom Line: With Bill Callahan steering a tailored wide-zone blocking scheme and a massive projected workload, Bijan Robinson is poised for a monster, overall RB1-caliber season that could easily shatter the 400-fantasy-point mark!
The Passing Attack: Quick-Release Play-Action & The QB Derby Impact
To protect two fragile quarterbacks, this passing attack will lean heavily on play-action fakes and fast-release designs. How those targets get distributed depends on who wins the QB battle:
- The Case for Tua Tagovailoa: Tua fits Stefanski's preferred quick-dropback, catch-and-run structure like a glove (much like Baker Mayfield and Dillon Gabriel did for this staff in the past). If Tua takes the helm, tight end Kyle Pitts and rookie speedster Zachariah Branch, the Falcons' premier yards-after-catch (YAC) creators, see their fantasy stock skyrocket.
- The Case for Michael Penix: If Penix wins out, expect a more volatile, downfield air attack that favors long-motion vertical shots.
- The Drake London Conundrum: While Tua's potential start boosts Pitts, Branch, and Bijan, it creates a tricky projection for Drake London after Atlanta handed him a massive $141 million contract extension. London needs an intermediate/deep passer who will let him win on contested boundaries—something to watch closely as the QB competition unfolds in training camp!
Best Fits for This Offense: Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts
Worst Fits for This Offense: Brian Robinson, Jahan Dotson
Falcons Defensive Breakdown
- Defensive Setup: Multi, 3-4 Base
- Base Secondary Coverage: Cover-3 & Cover-4 Zone
Some coaches just feel like a natural fit in certain cities, and Jeff Ulbrich looks completely at home as the defensive coordinator here in Atlanta. His return went so well that new head coach Kevin Stefanski wisely retained him. Under Ulbrich’s guidance last season, the Falcons set a franchise record by racking up a wild 57 sacks!
Ulbrich runs a 3-4 front that relies heavily on position versatility and pre-snap chaos. To keep the engine hot and confuse offensive protection schemes, Atlanta runs a continuous rotation of pass rushers up front. From a fantasy standpoint, this is very much a "team defense" because roles within it are constantly fluid.
The Defensive Front: Rotating Rushers & In-The-Trenches Overhaul
The front office completely transformed this defensive line over the last two offseasons, clearing out established veterans like Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata to make room for younger, more versatile models like Da'Shawn Hand and Maason Smith. While this youth injection undeniably supercharged the pass rush, it has left Atlanta far more susceptible to the run.
- Simulated Pressure & Linebacker Heat: Ulbrich loves dropping defensive linemen into coverage while sending blitzing linebackers and defensive backs through vacated gaps. This constant illusion of pressure creates total chaos for opposing offensive lines and leaves QBs guessing.
- The Pass-Rushing Committee: James Pearce proved to be a real-deal edge rusher last season, but offseason domestic abuse allegations put his status in jeopardy and placed a lot more strain on second-year linebacker Jalon Walker. To cushion the blow, the Falcons added veteran edge rushers Azeez Ojulari and Samson Ebukam, giving Ulbrich a half-dozen pass rushers to rotate constantly. While this depth worked wonders last year, the jury is still out across the NFL on whether heavily rotating pass rushers works as a long-term strategy.
- Sleeper Linebacker Alert: The addition of linebacker Christian Harris is extremely intriguing. Harris steps in to replace leading tackler Kaden Elliss, giving him immediate sleeper appeal as a high-volume tackle monster for IDP fantasy managers this season!
The Secondary & Coverage Report: Multi-Layered Zones, Shadowing, and Elite Safety Play
Behind that shape-shifting front seven, the Falcons run an innovative, multi-layered coverage map heavy on zone concepts. They frequently show a single-high safety look before the snap before spinning into Cover-3 or Cover-4 to keep the action underneath and eliminate vertical big plays.
- Layered Zones & Boundary Isolation: Ulbrich frequently drops his edge rushers into coverage to squeeze off the flats underneath. To make those zone radii even tighter for the rest of the secondary, star cornerback A.J. Terrell will shadow a single receiver or take away one entire side of the field. The secondary also drafted his brother, second-round pick Avieon Terrell, alongside signing Darnay Holmes to fortify their underneath coverage. Eventually, the Terrell brothers will hold down both outside boundaries full-time!
- Elite Ball-Hawking Safeties (IDP Goldmine): With underneath zones locked down and the front seven generating quick pressure, the safeties are free to play as opportunistic ball hawks rather than pure coverage caretakers.
- Fantasy Takeaway: Jessie Bates and Xavier Watts form one of the absolute premier safety duos in the entire NFL. Their elite versatility gives Ulbrich endless coverage flexibility, making both Bates and Watts high-priority, highly coveted targets in all IDP league formats this season!
| Falcons Man vs Zone Breakdown | |
| Category | 2025 |
| Man % | 20.9% |
| Man Coverage Rank | 20 |
| Zone % | 74.6% |
| Zone Coverage Rank | 12 |
Best Fits for This Defense: James Pearce, Jessie Bates, Xavier Watts, A.J. Terrell
Worst Fits for This Defense: Divine Deablo, Mike Hughes
Carolina Panthers
- Head Coach: Dave Canales (Offensive Play Caller)
- Offensive Coordinator: Brad Idzik
- Defensive Coordinator: Ejiro Evero (Defensive Play Caller)
- Offensive System: West Coast Offense – Relies upon short, high-percentage pass plays instead of power rushing. The short passes set up outside runs and deep passes in hopes of surprising the defense. There is a high volume of plays in a West Coast system.
Panthers Offensive Breakdown
Let's talk about the Carolina Panthers' offense down in Charlotte. Head coach Dave Canales is calling the plays, with offensive coordinator Brad Idzik (who mentored wide receivers alongside Canales in Seattle and Tampa Bay) tasked with developing this young receiving corps.
This unit operates at a deliberate, slower pace designed to generate high-percentage, rhythm throws for quarterback Bryce Young. However, there’s a massive structural elephant in the room: Carolina relies on a simplistic "hat-on-hat" pass protection scheme where each lineman takes sole responsibility for one pass rusher. While that sounds clean on paper, blitz-heavy teams that bring pressure from different angles completely unravel it, placing extreme, shifting pressure on running backs and tight ends.
| Panthers Blocking Scheme - 2025 | |
| Block Type | % of Plays |
| Inside Zone | 28.6% |
| Pin & Pull | 27.3% |
| Outside Zone | 23.9% |
| Wide Zone | 10.8% |
| Power/Gap | 9.2% |
| Panthers Personnel Package - 2025 | |
| Grouping (#RB-#TE) | % of Plays |
| 1-1 (3WR) | 65.6% |
| 1-2 (2WR) | 20.6% |
| 1-3 (1WR) | 7.8% |
| 2-2 (2TE) | 2.9% |
| 2-1 (2RB) | 1.9% |
| 0-1 (4WR) | 0.7% |
| 1-0 (4WR) | 0.3% |
| 2-0 (3WR) | 0.1% |
| 0-2 (3WR) | 0.0% |
The Ground Game: Heavy O-Line Mentorship & Backfield Opportunities
The rushing attack is crucial to everything Carolina wants to accomplish, meaning Panthers running backs routinely put up better-than-expected fantasy numbers.
- Coaching & Trench Investment: Carolina built this ground attack around a physical offensive line coached by a trio of elite teachers: assistant head coach/run game coordinator Harold Goodwin (guards), Joe Gilbert (tackles), and Keyshawn Colmon (centers). The front office doubled down on this trench-first approach by drafting tackle Monroe Freeling in the first round and center Sam Hecht in the fifth.
- The Breakout Blueprint: Goodwin and Gilbert have a proven history of developing fantasy stars (think Willie Parker, David Johnson, and Rachaad White). Last year, Rico Dowdle exploded under their tutelage for 1,076 yards and 7 total touchdowns in just 10 starts, finishing as the RB18.
- Current Backfield Strategy:
- Chuba Hubbard: Even though Hubbard regressed last season, the 27-year-old remains the primary back controlling this backfield heading into camp. He is currently my preferred fantasy target in this backfield as a late-round RB4 target with solid volume upside.
- Jonathon Brooks: Brooks is working his way back, but whether his body can sustain full-contact NFL workloads remains a huge question mark. Monitor his health closely during summer training camp before making your final draft investments!
The Passing Attack: Quick West Coast Progressions, Tet's Role, and Bryce Young's Ceiling
When Bryce Young drops back, expect a West Coast passing game focused on quick, high-percentage throws such as ins, digs, and hooks, to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry. Receivers are required to run the full route tree and shift positions seamlessly.
- Tetairoa McMillan’s Target Dominance: Tetairoa McMillan was absolute dynamite as a rookie, racking up 1,014 yards and 7 touchdowns to become the focal point of this passing attack. Canales and Idzik feature McMillan on underneath and intermediate routes, but Carolina desperately needs a true run-after-the-catch weapon (McMillan managed just 290 YAC yards last year).
- Adding Receivers: To expand this route tree, Carolina added Tennessee third-round deep threat Chris Brazzell and John Metchie. Whichever receiver steps up as the primary YAC creator will hold sneaky fantasy value alongside McMillan and Jalen Coker.
- The Bryce Young Ceiling: Young took a noticeable step forward in 2025, but it ultimately yielded just over 3,000 passing yards and 23 touchdowns. While his development raises the floor for everyone involved, the conservative nature of this scheme makes a 4,000-yard or 30-TD breakout tough to project. Target these pass catchers for their reliable floor rather than sky-high tournament ceilings!
Best Fits for This Offense: Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker
Worst Fits for This Offense: Bryce Young, Tommy Tremble
Panthers Defensive Breakdown
- Defensive Front Setup: 3-4 Base setup with some 4-0-4 Front
- Base Secondary Coverage: Cover-3 with frequent 2-high shell
Straight talk, people: Ejiro Evero had a fantastic run in Denver four years ago, but since landing in Charlotte, his defensive scheme has been a total disaster. Evero tries to play a high-IQ, disguise-heavy brand of football that tricks opposing quarterbacks, but without the right personnel, smart veteran callers just line them up and carve them up week after week.
The Defensive Front: Base 3-4 Trickery, Run-Defense Woes, and Phillips' Health
Evero sticks stubbornly to a 3-4 base front—sometimes shifting into 4-0-4 looks—designed to conceal where the extra pass rusher is coming from. However, despite all the elaborate pre-snap disguises, Carolina has produced the fewest pressures and sacks (just 89) in the entire NFL over the past three seasons.
- The Derrick Brown Factor: This scheme relies heavily on four-technique defensive tackle Derrick Brown to control multiple gaps. When Brown suffered a knee injury early in 2024, the defense completely collapsed. Brown found his rhythm in the second half of 2025 and elevated the entire front seven, and Carolina hopes second-round rookie Lee Hunter can step in alongside him to clog interior gaps.
- The Fatal Flaw (Run Defense): Evero is almost indifferent toward stopping the run, routinely prioritizing pass-rush angles and dropping linebackers into coverage over plugging run lanes. His defensive ends line up too wide outside the tackles, leaving massive lanes underneath. If the Panthers fall behind early, they simply lack the personnel up front to stop opponents from grinding down the clock on the ground.
- Front-Seven Stopper Additions: Carolina brought in linebackers Devin Lloyd and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips to add much-needed bite. Everything hinges on Phillips’ ability to bring an authentic pass rush. But considering his extensive injury history and the complete lack of depth behind him, Phillips' health is the single biggest key to this entire front.
The Secondary & Coverage Report: Heavy Zone Shells & IDP Goldmine Moehrig
In the secondary, Evero wants to baffle quarterbacks with complex coverage rotations and blitzes from secondary defenders. But here's the catch: Carolina simply lacks the boundary coverage talent required to consistently send extra rushers without leaving receivers wide open downfield.
- Loose Cover-3 Zone Shells: The Panthers played almost exclusively zone coverage last season, marking a sharp drop in man-to-man usage compared to Evero's previous stops. They frequently showed single-high safety alignments before dropping post-snap into loose Cover-3 shells at a 40% clip, adjusting their depth based on down, distance, and game flow.
- The Safety Role & Tre’von Moehrig (IDP Target): Safeties are the lifeblood of Evero's coverage and run-support schemes. After trying and failing to develop a dozen different safety projects over two years, Carolina dropped a king's ransom to sign Tre’von Moehrig. Moehrig is a versatile playmaker who excels both down in the box against the run and back in deep coverage creating turnovers.
- Fantasy & IDP Takeaway: Moehrig's multi-faceted role makes him an elite IDP asset—proven by his monster 103 tackles, 3 sacks, and 1 interception last season. Outside of targeting Moehrig in IDP leagues, this secondary is a unit you should actively stream opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers against all season long!
| Panthers Man vs Zone Breakdown | |
| Category | 2025 |
| Man % | 16.5% |
| Man Coverage Rank | 31 |
| Zone % | 79.5% |
| Zone Coverage Rank | 3 |
Best Fits for This Defense: Derrick Brown, Tre'von Moehrig, Devin Lloyd
Worst Fits for This Defense: Nick Scott, Bobby Brown
New Orleans Saints
- Head Coach: Kellen Moore (Offensive Play Caller)
- Offensive Coordinator: Doug Nussmeier
- Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Staley (Defensive Play Caller)
- Offensive System: Air Coryell – Stretches the field for power running game, utilizes motion to read defense and timing pass patterns to maximize run after the catch.
Saints Offensive Breakdown
Let's head on down to the Big Easy, eat some beignets, and talk about the New Orleans Saints. Head coach Kellen Moore has been around the block as a backup quarterback, position coach, and offensive coordinator across Dallas, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia. He is a deeply player-friendly play-caller who builds his offense entirely around the talent and preferences of his personnel.
As a former QB himself, Moore operates a pure-progression system, a style that is almost elementary in today's NFL. He doesn't ask his quarterback to over-read or over-react post-snap; he just asks him to execute down-the-line reads in strict order. That favors QBs who process sequentially rather than cerebrally, which suits second-year quarterback Tyler Shough quite well.
| Saints Blocking Scheme - 2025 | |
| Block Type | % of Plays |
| Inside Zone | 34.7% |
| Power/Gap | 26.8% |
| Outside Zone | 19.6% |
| Pin & Pull | 11.0% |
| Wide Zone | 7.7% |
| Saints Personnel Package - 2025 | |
| Grouping (#RB-#TE) | % of Plays |
| 1-1 (3WR) | 66.9% |
| 1-2 (2WR) | 18.2% |
| 1-3 (1WR) | 8.6% |
| 0-4 (1WR) | 1.8% |
| 2-2 (1WR) | 1.2% |
| 0-3 (2WR) | 1.2% |
| 0-2 (3WR) | 0.9% |
| 2-1 (2RB) | 0.6% |
| 2-0 (1WR) | 0.1% |
The Ground Game: "Multiple" Formations, Zone Runs, and the Etienne Warning
The Saints' rushing attack is defined as "multiple," running a wide variety of run schemes out of diverse personnel groupings. Moore uses wide, receiver-heavy alignments and pre-snap motion to stretch defenses horizontally, pulling extra defenders out of the box. Ironically, the more New Orleans lines up looking like they are going to pass, the more likely they are to run—and vice versa.
- RPOs & The Travis Etienne Addition: RPOs remain a massive staple in this offense. While Saints QBs posted over 340 rushing yards last year, Shough isn't a true scramble threat—so those RPO reads are meant to give the running back a step advantage, not to turn Shough into a runner.
- The Wide-Zone Dynamic: Signing Travis Etienne signals a heavier reliance on wide-zone schemes. Etienne will stretch defenses laterally on perimeter runs, setting up cutback lanes to slash through. He gives New Orleans their most dangerous rushing threat since prime Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.
- The Kellen Moore Warning: DO NOT draft Travis Etienne expecting vintage Kamara-like pass targets! Kellen Moore simply does not throw to his running backs unless it is a designed screen.
- In Dallas, fans complained endlessly that Tony Pollard was ignored in the air game.
- A year after Austin Ekeler caught 107 passes in Los Angeles, Moore took over and pulled those targets right back.
- Even during Saquon Barkley's monster 2024 campaign in Philly, Saquon logged just 53 targets, second fewest for him in any season.
- Moore wants his QB's eyes downfield. Etienne will get high-value carry volume, but do not bake a receiving ceiling into his price.
- The Alvin Kamara Situation: Alvin Kamara's role is a major fantasy headache. The Saints have three better rushing options on the roster right now, making any forced workload for Kamara give us nightmarish flashbacks to player-mascots like Taysom Hill, Travaris Cadet, or Tommylee Lewis.
The Passing Attack: Linebacker Attacks, Pick Plays, and Olave's Top-10 Upside
The passing game attacks opposing linebackers mercilessly, mixing RPOs with quick-hitting screens, bubbles, hooks, and flat passes. It’s a high-completion-rate system that places immense value on a receiver's ability to create Yards After the Catch (YAC).
- Scheming Matchups: To get pass-catchers open in space, Moore calls a heavy diet of pick plays, mesh patterns, wheel routes, and crossers. Pre-snap motion is used explicitly to identify and isolate the single most winnable matchup on the field.
- Upgrades Up Front & Out Wide: The front office did work this offseason. They plugged their glaring weakness at left guard by signing David Edwards, giving Shough real protection. Then they added big-bodied inside/outside wide receiver Jordyn Tyson and deep-threat gamebreaker Bryce Lance.
- Chris Olave’s Alpha Bounce-Back: All these new perimeter threats pull defensive focus away from the middle of the field, opening up clean space for Chris Olave. If Olave can stay healthy and avoid concussions, he is primed for a monster, top-10 fantasy season!
- The Tyler Shough Factor: Shough was solid as a rookie, but his statistical profile was nearly identical to Spencer Rattler's before him. The team just played better around Shough. Armed with David Edwards up front and a loaded arsenal out wide, can Shough take the sophomore leap? I'm cautious, but genuinely optimistic about his fantasy efficiency in this system!
Best Fits for This Offense: Tyler Shough, Travis Etienne, Chris Olave
Worst Fits for This Offense: Alvin Kamara, Devaughn Vele
Saints Defensive Breakdown
- Defensive Front Setup: 3-4, some multi-front & 3-3-5
- Base Secondary Coverage: Two-High Match Zone
Brandon Staley is back calling plays down in the Big Easy, and if there is one thing we know about Staley, it’s that he is a master copycat. He loves looking around the league, spotting whatever hot defensive trend is working, and installing it into his own system. That’s why his units have wildly unpredictable swings from year to year as he continuously plays catch-up.
At its core, Staley’s entire system is driven by pure math: create one-on-one matchups against the run, while generating two-on-one double-teams in the passing game.
The Defensive Front: Tight Three-Man Alignment & Linebacker IDP Goldmines
While Staley lines up in a 3-4 base front on paper, it's mostly for show. New Orleans actually spends the majority of their snaps in light sub-packages like 3-3-5 and 4-2-5, alignments designed to bait opposing offense into thinking they can run the football.
- Tight Front & "Gap-and-a-Half" Duty: The Saints deploy a tight three-man front with all three interior linemen aligned inside the offensive tackles. Each down lineman plays a "gap-and-a-half" assignment, plugging the interior gaps immediately to spill the running play outward to the perimeter, where the edge rushers and linebackers are waiting to feast.
- Front-Seven Health & Depth: This defensive line is in significantly better shape than a year ago. Veteran Cam Jordan re-signed for another run alongside Davon Godchaux and Nathan Shepherd, and the front office injected elite rookie juice by drafting Georgia DT Christen Miller.
- The Kaden Elliss IDP Explosion: This scheme places immense responsibility on versatile, rangy linebackers who can hold down the perimeter when the ball is funneled outside. Demario Davis thrived in this exact role before leaving for the Jets in free agency. Re-enter Kaden Elliss! Returning to New Orleans, Elliss steps directly into a massive tackle role and is poised to rack up astronomical numbers for our IDP fantasy leagues.
The Secondary & Coverage Report: Split-Field Match Zone & The "Star" Position
Because the front seven plays light to bait the run, the secondary relies heavily on pre-snap disguises and split-field rules to protect against the pass.
- Split-Top Match Zone & Cover-6 Rules: Staley usually shows a standard two-high safety shell as the QB gets under center. At the snap, they rotate into a match-zone concept—playing man on the outside boundaries while dropping into zone over the middle. A staple here is Cover-6, which splits the field in half (Cover-2 on one side, Cover-4 on the other). This gives Staley a deep safety who can either fly downhill for run support or squat in the middle of the field to destroy crossing routes.
- Scrapping Pure Man Coverage: Early last season, New Orleans tried isolating their boundary corners in man coverage on one side. It flamed out miserably when Quincy Riley and Isaac Yiadom got continuously torched. Scrapping that experiment in favor of true split-top match zones saved the secondary.
- The "Star" Position Battle (HUGE IDP Target): Just like his mentor Vic Fangio, Staley utilizes a "Star" position—a hybrid nickel defender who moves all over the formation, playing in the box, the slot, and deep coverage. With Alontae Taylor off to Tennessee, there is an open training camp battle for this role.
- Fantasy Takeaway: Keep your eyes glued to safety Jonas Sanker during camp. If Sanker locks down that "Star" role in Staley's system, his fantasy stock will skyrocket in all IDP formats!
| Saints Man vs Zone Breakdown | |
| Category | 2025 |
| Man % | 21.6% |
| Man Coverage Rank | 21 |
| Zone % | 78.2% |
| Zone Coverage Rank | 6 |
Best Fits for This Defense: Christen Miller, Kaden Elliss, Justin Reid
Worst Fits for This Defense: Chase Young, Quincy Riley
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Head Coach: Todd Bowles (Defensive Play Caller)
- Defensive Coordinator: none
- Offensive Coordinator: Zac Robinson (Offensive Play Caller)
- Offensive System: West Coast Offense – Relies upon short, high-percentage pass plays instead of power rushing. The short passes set up outside runs and deep passes in hopes of surprising the defense. There is a high volume of plays in a West Coast system.
Buccaneers Offensive Breakdown
Let's talk about the situation down in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are breaking in their fifth offensive coordinator in five years, and Baker Mayfield’s third in three seasons. Continually resetting the system makes it brutally tough to build year-over-year continuity, but enter Zac Robinson, fresh off his stint as the Falcons' play-caller.
Robinson runs an old-school Sean McVay offshoot, relying heavily on "11 personnel" (3 WRs), pre-snap motion, and play-action. The twist? Robinson operates out of the shotgun much more than McVay to give his QB an extra half-second to read defensive alignments. That poses an intriguing fit question: Mayfield historically rocks an 87.4 career QB rating out of the shotgun compared to a far superior 105.1 under center.
| Buccaneers Blocking Scheme - 2025 | |
| Block Type | % of Plays |
| Power/Gap | 41.9% |
| Inside Zone | 24.8% |
| Outside Zone | 15.9% |
| Pin & Pull | 12.7% |
| Wide Zone | 4.5% |
| Buccaneers Personnel Package - 2025 | |
| Grouping (#RB-#TE) | % of Plays |
| 1-1 (3WR) | 69.4% |
| 1-2 (2WR) | 19.5% |
| 2-1 (2WR) | 5.9% |
| 1-3 (1WR) | 2.3% |
| 2-2 (1WR) | 1.5% |
| 1-0 (4WR) | 1.2% |
| 0-1 (4WR) | 0.0% |
| 2-0 (3WR) | 0.0% |
| 0-2 (3WR) | 0.0% |
The Ground Game: Pin & Pull Schemes, Pistol Alignments, and RB Target Value
The ground attack is governed by a robust system crafted by run game coordinator Kevin Carberry. While they run inside zone, man/gap, and counters, Carberry's secret weapon is the pin & pull scheme, designed to get offensive linemen moving laterally to land leverage blocks on linebackers downfield.
- The Pistol Adjustment: Because Robinson wants to operate out of the shotgun, which can strip leverage away from running backs, Tampa will heavily feature the pistol formation. Lining up the QB just 3-4 yards behind center with the running back directly behind him speeds up handoff exchanges, allowing backs to press the line and slide behind pulling blockers.
- The Backfield Committee: The tandem of Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell is easily the most intriguing part of this offense.
- Target Inflation: Unlike last season under Josh Grizzard, Robinson incorporates his running backs as high-priority checkdown options in the passing game. Both Irving and Gainwell excel at creating yards after the catch (YAC), making both backs high-floor, high-upside targets in all PPR draft formats!
The Passing Attack: 11-Personnel Advantage, YAC Emphasis, and Egbuka’s Alpha Role
With so many NFL teams shifting to heavy, multi-tight-end sets, Tampa Bay’s heavy reliance on three-wideout packages gives them a distinct structural advantage against modern sub-packages.
- First-Read Rhythms & Quick Drops: Robinson’s passing script demands fast decision-making, leading to a high percentage of quick, first-read throws designed to generate massive YAC opportunities.
- Life After Mike Evans: It will certainly feel strange seeing a Buccaneers offense without Mike Evans dominating vertical routes, but shifting toward shorter, quick-striking passes plays right into their current roster's strengths.
- Buy the Dip on Emeka Egbuka: Do not listen to the summer rumors claiming sophomore wideout Emeka Egbuka will strictly play the "X" or "Z" flanker spot. Robinson loves rotating his receivers across all spots in the formation to create mismatch advantages. Egbuka is a versatile weapon, and tailoring this passing attack around his skill set makes him an absolute priority target for me in 2026!
Best Fits for This Offense: Bucky Irving, Kenny Gainwell, Emeka Egbuka
Worst Fits for This Offense: Baker Mayfield
Buccaneers Defensive Breakdown
- Defensive Front Setup: 3-4 Base with Multi-front
- Base Secondary Coverage: Single High Cover-3 Zone
There is no traditional defensive coordinator calling shots here because head coach Todd Bowles takes on that role himself, leaving assistants Larry Foote and Kacy Rodgers to tag-team game plans and practices. Bowles remains one of the absolute most aggressive, creative, and innovative minds in the game, bringing heat from every imaginable angle: safeties, corners, linebackers, you name it!
The Bucs are an absolute staple at the top of the blitz charts year after year—ranking second in 2019 (43.4%), fifth in 2020 (39.0%), first in 2021 (40.8%), 10th in 2022 (28.3%), third in 2023 (40.1%), third in 2024 (34.2%), and fourth in 2025 at a 29.6% clip. Remarkably, they continuously generate top-tier sack numbers without a single player topping 7.5 sacks in any of the last three seasons.
The Defensive Front: "Simulated Pressure," Vita Vea's Gap Control, and IDP Additions
Upfront, Bowles mixes 3-4 and 4-3 base fronts, relying on "simulated pressure,” disguising that fourth pass rusher so they can come firing off any gap on any given snap.
- The Vita Vea Dependency: Larry Foote demands that his defensive linemen push upfield in an "attacking" style while controlling multiple gaps. This works like a charm when Vita Vea is healthy because the beefy DT is a three-gap destruction machine alongside Calijah Kancey. However, pay close attention to Vea’s health during the season—when he misses time, this interior run defense transforms into a swinging gate!
- Replacing Lavonte David: Losing legendary linebacker Lavonte David to retirement is a massive blow, but Tampa injected serious youth to soften the punch. Veteran Alex Anzalone steps in as a versatile, perimeter tackle monster capable of locking down mobile tight ends.
- Rookie IDP Goldmines: Edge rusher Rueben Bain fell to Tampa in the draft over arm-length concerns, but he fits as a physical edge setter. Meanwhile, second-round pick Josiah Trotter is a day-one "jack-of-all-trades" for Bowles and a high-priority rookie draft target in IDP leagues!
The Secondary & Coverage Report: Rotation Chaos, Draft Picks, and the Winfield Safety Net
Bowles carries his relentless aggression straight into the secondary, constantly swapping coverages mid-play and throwing a mix of man and zone at opposing quarterbacks. While personnel losses forced them into far more zone looks last year, they still heavily utilize single-high safety setups.
- The Antoine Winfield Factor: Single-high shells require an elite safety valve, and Antoine Winfield is built specifically for it. His presence as an all-around playmaker was desperately missed when he sat out chunks of 2024. As long as opposing QBs aren't floating passes toward Winfield, he will make them pay.
- Cornerback Overhaul: Tampa surprisingly bypassed free-agent man-coverage specialists, opting to address the boundary through the draft. Second-round pick Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame) brings press-outside potential but is best suited for zone right now, while third-rounder Jacob Parrish possesses better raw man-coverage traits. Both rookie corners will be thrown straight into the fire to develop on the fly.
- Fantasy & Streamer Takeaway: Because Bowles forces defensive backs to fly downhill and make heavy contact, Tampa’s linebackers and safeties rack up massive tackle numbers, sacks, and turnovers, offering premium IDP value! However, the easiest way to exploit this defense is through the air. Fire up your QBs and WRs against Tampa Bay with confidence in season-long and DFS match-ups all season long!
| Buccaneers Man vs Zone Breakdown | |
| Category | 2025 |
| Man % | 26.0% |
| Man Coverage Rank | 16 |
| Zone % | 73.7% |
| Zone Coverage Rank | 17 |
Best Fits for This Defense: Vita Vea, Alex Anzalone, Antoine Winfield
Worst Fits for This Defense: Zyon McCollum, Tykee Smith
