The best NFL DFS game stack for Week 7 is Jordan Love with Christian Watson in Packers-Lions, the highest total on the Sunday main slate at 53.5. The main slate is ten games. Steelers-Saints in Paris, Chiefs-Seahawks on Sunday night and Cowboys-Eagles on Monday aren't on it, and Patriots-Bears was Thursday. Here's where I'm spending.
Best NFL DFS Game Environments for Week 7
The best NFL DFS game environments for Week 7 are Packers-Lions (53.5) and 49ers-Falcons (49.5), with Rams-Raiders and Bengals-Ravens tied at 48.5. After that it drops off: Panthers-Buccaneers is 44.5, Broncos-Cardinals is 43.5, Giants-Texans is 42.5, Colts-Vikings is 41.5, Dolphins-Jets is 39.5 and Browns-Titans is 37.5. Quarterback news is shaping the board. Lamar Jackson was downgraded to out, the Giants are starting J.J. McCarthy over Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield is Questionable. For matchups, I leaned on FTN's defensive DVOA, where negative is good, along with Pro Football Reference's fantasy points allowed by position. Detroit's pass defense is 25th in DVOA and it allows more points to quarterbacks and tight ends than any defense in the league, Las Vegas is 23rd against the pass and 30th against the run, and Arizona and Miami have two of the worst pass defenses on the slate. Minnesota owns the best defense in the league. A big total doesn't mean much when the quarterback is short on targets, and two of the top four are in that spot: San Francisco is without Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, and the Rams lost Davante Adams with Puka Nacua Questionable.
Best NFL DFS Games to Stack
Packers-Lions (DET -3, 53.5 total)
Love and Watson are the stack. Detroit's pass defense is 25th in DVOA, and it gives up the most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks and tight ends and the third most to receivers, and Love has 11 touchdown passes while Watson has six touchdowns and 538 yards through six games. Matthew Golden is the chalk after a 6-104-1 night against Dallas, owned around 23% on DraftKings and 29% on FanDuel, so Watson at about 11% on DraftKings is the cheaper way in. Tucker Kraft gets the best tight end matchup on the board. Green Bay's receiver room is healthy and Josh Jacobs is back, which is the opposite of what you see in a lot of high totals this week. For the bring-back I want Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a 30% target share, and Jahmyr Gibbs is the running back comeback. He's the biggest chalk in the game (29% DraftKings, 40% FanDuel) but Green Bay allows the third-most points to running backs and its run defense is 27th in DVOA. If you want the Lions as the stack, Jared Goff has 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions, and Jacobs is a cheap comeback at about 3% on DraftKings. The risk is the Goff side. Green Bay's pass defense is second in DVOA, so I like the Packers' half of this game more.
Bengals-Ravens (CIN -1.5, 48.5 total)
Burrow and Chase are the stack, and the week's news makes it better. Baltimore is without Lamar Jackson, who was downgraded to out, and Tyler Huntley is back under center. Baltimore's pass defense is only 16th in DVOA and the secondary is thin now. T.J. Tampa is Doubtful, Jaylinn Hawkins is out and so is edge rusher Tavius Robinson. Cincinnati comes off its bye with no injury designations at all, so Chase and Tee Higgins are both healthy and Burrow has his full receiver room. Burrow has 11 touchdown passes and is only about 4% owned on DraftKings, and Chase is about 13%. Higgins is a better play on FanDuel, around 13% there against 7% on DraftKings. For the bring-back, Zay Flowers has a 26% target share and is the chalk on the Baltimore side at 15% on DraftKings. Derrick Henry is the running back comeback at about 6% on DraftKings, with Cincinnati giving up the 24th-most points to backs in a league of 32. The risk is Huntley. If Baltimore can't score, this turns into a Cincinnati-only game.
Giants-Texans (HOU -10.5, 42.5 total)
Stroud and Collins are the stack. Houston has its receivers back and the Giants' defense is a mess. New York's pass defense is 24th in DVOA, and the secondary is down Greg Newsome and Jevon Holland, both in the concussion protocol, with Tremaine Edmunds and Theo Johnson also out and Paulson Adebo Questionable. Stroud was the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 312 yards and three touchdowns in London, and he's only about 7% on DraftKings, while Collins is under 4%. Woody Marks is the chalk back at 16% on DraftKings and 23% on FanDuel with David Montgomery out. The bring-back is Malik Nabers at about 4%. Houston gives up the second-most points in the league to receivers, and Nabers has a 30% target share. J.J. McCarthy is making his first start for the Giants, so the New York offense is the question, and a 10.5-point spread could shut down Stroud's volume late. The Giants' backfield is a mystery, so Tyrone Tracy is a cheap comeback at under 1%.
Highest-Scoring Games to Target
| Game | Vegas Total | Spread | Top Stack to Build |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers-Lions | 53.5 | DET -3 | Love / Watson |
| 49ers-Falcons | 49.5 | SF -2.5 | Fade (WRs out) |
| Rams-Raiders | 48.5 | LAR -3.5 | Fade (WRs out) |
| Bengals-Ravens | 48.5 | CIN -1.5 | Burrow / Chase |
| Panthers-Buccaneers | 44.5 | CAR -3 | Fade |
| Broncos-Cardinals | 43.5 | DEN -4.5 | Nix / Waddle |
| Giants-Texans | 42.5 | HOU -10.5 | Stroud / Collins |
| Colts-Vikings | 41.5 | MIN -6.5 | Murray / Jefferson |
Best Contrarian NFL DFS Stacks
- Broncos stack: Bo Nix and Jaylen Waddle. Arizona's pass defense is 30th in DVOA, and it allows the fourth-most points to quarterbacks and receivers and the third-most to tight ends. Denver's receivers are healthy, Denver is a 4.5-point favorite and has been winning close games, though Nix has just six touchdown passes against three interceptions, so this is a matchup play and not a bet on the offense. Nix is about 8% on DraftKings but under 3% on FanDuel, and Waddle is about 8% on DraftKings and 4% on FanDuel. Trey McBride (65 targets, 28% target share) is the bring-back, since he sits at under 4% on DraftKings, even though Denver's pass defense is fourth in DVOA. Arizona is without Jeremiyah Love, so Tyler Allgeier is the running back comeback.
- Vikings stack: Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson. This is the first week Minnesota has Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison all healthy, with no injury designations on the whole team. Indianapolis is 22nd against the pass and 31st against the run in DVOA, and it's missing Sauce Gardner and Tyler Warren. Murray is under 4% on both sites and Jefferson is about 7% on DraftKings. The risk is that Murray has only two touchdown passes in four games and Minnesota wins with its defense, so this is a one-lineup stack. Aaron Jones is the running back worth a look, and Jonathan Taylor is the comeback.
NFL DFS Games to Fade
- 49ers-Falcons (49.5 total, SF -2.5): this total comes with a problem. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are both out for San Francisco, and Christian Kirk is out too, so Brock Purdy is throwing to George Kittle and a group of backups. That caps the stack. Kittle (19% on DraftKings, 21% on FanDuel) and Christian McCaffrey (34% on DraftKings) are fine as one-offs, but I'm not paying for the quarterback. On the Atlanta side, San Francisco's pass defense is sixth in DVOA and it allows the fewest tight end points in the league, and Bijan Robinson (28% DraftKings, 33% FanDuel) runs into the fifth-best run defense.
- Rams-Raiders (48.5 total, LAR -3.5): Davante Adams is out for several weeks and Puka Nacua is Questionable with a calf after missing Friday's practice, so Matthew Stafford could be without his top two receivers. Las Vegas is 23rd against the pass in DVOA, which is a good spot, but I won't build around a quarterback who might be throwing to Tyler Higbee and Konata Mumpfield. On the other side, the Rams allow the second-fewest points to tight ends, which hurts Brock Bowers. Kyren Williams (22%) and Ashton Jeanty (18%) are the pieces I'd rather have from this game.
- Panthers-Buccaneers (44.5 total, CAR -3): Mayfield is Questionable and Emeka Egbuka is out. The field is piling into the minimum-priced Tampa Bay pieces, with Ted Hurst at 23% on DraftKings and Cade Otton at 21%, both around $3,000. Tampa Bay's defense is sixth in DVOA and seventh against the run, and it allows the second-fewest points to running backs, so this is a good spot to be underweight.
- Dolphins-Jets (39.5 total) and Browns-Titans (37.5 total): these are the two lowest totals on the slate, and I don't trust the offenses. Miami's pass defense is 31st in DVOA and Tennessee's is 29th, so Garrett Wilson is the one piece I'd consider, but I'd keep it to him. Miami is 0-5, the Jets are 2-4 with Breece Hall Questionable and the Browns are playing Deshaun Watson with Dillon Gabriel out. Braelon Allen is chalk at 28% on DraftKings and 35% on FanDuel, and I'd rather take my running back exposure elsewhere.
NFL DFS Stack Rankings for Week 7
This is my order, based on price, matchup, who's actually healthy and ownership. Salary and ownership are for the QB and his pass catcher on each site.
| Rank | QB / Pass-Catcher Stack | Game (Total, Spread) | DK Sal | DK Own% | FD Sal | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Love / Christian Watson | GB/DET (53.5, DET -3) | $13,000 | 13.2% | $15,000 | 19.3% |
| 2 | Joe Burrow / Ja'Marr Chase | CIN/BAL (48.5, CIN -1.5) | $15,000 | 8.2% | $17,100 | 9.0% |
| 3 | C.J. Stroud / Nico Collins | HOU/NYG (42.5, HOU -10.5) | $12,900 | 5.6% | $15,200 | 9.1% |
| 4 | Jared Goff / Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET/GB (53.5, DET -3) | $14,600 | 17.5% | $17,000 | 15.3% |
| 5 | Bo Nix / Jaylen Waddle | DEN/ARI (43.5, DEN -4.5) | $10,500 | 7.8% | $13,700 | 3.7% |
| 6 | Kyler Murray / Justin Jefferson | MIN/IND (41.5, MIN -6.5) | $12,700 | 5.5% | $15,700 | 4.1% |
Packers-Lions is where I want the most exposure, and Watson is the way to get there without paying for Golden.
Burrow and Chase are my favorite leverage play. The Ravens are down their quarterback and two secondary starters, Burrow has his full receiver room and he's under 4% on DraftKings.
Before lock I'm checking Nacua's calf, Breece Hall, Mayfield's thumb and the Ravens' final quarterback call.