Week 10 brings a ten-game Sunday main slate, and it looks different after the trade deadline. One game carries a 55.5 total, a couple more sit near 50, and the bottom of the board is full of low totals and backup quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins is a Viking, a rookie is starting for the Raiders, and Puka Nacua is on injured reserve, so a lot of the usual names don't mean what they did a week ago. This breakdown of the best NFL DFS game stacks for Week 10 covers the top game environments, the stacks worth building on DraftKings and FanDuel, the contrarian options, and the games to avoid, using Vegas totals and spreads, defensive matchups, injuries, weather, and ownership.
Best NFL DFS Game Environments for Week 10
The best NFL DFS game environment for Week 10 is 49ers-Cowboys at 55.5, the highest total on the main slate, followed by Bills-Jets at 50.5 and Panthers-Saints at 48.5. Chiefs-Falcons and Jaguars-Titans are both 46.5. After that, it drops off: Vikings-Packers is 41.5, Seahawks-Raiders and Texans-Browns are 40.5, Rams-Cardinals is 39.5, and Dolphins-Colts is 38.5. By FTN's defensive DVOA, where negative is good, Tennessee has the worst pass defense in the league; Arizona is 31st, Dallas is 30th, New Orleans is 29th, and Las Vegas is 28th, while Minnesota (second) and Seattle (third) are among the best. Weather is mostly a non-issue. Panthers-Saints, Chiefs-Falcons, Dolphins-Colts, Rams-Cardinals, and Seahawks-Raiders are all indoors or under a closed roof. Bills-Jets is the wind game, with 12 mph winds and gusts to 22 mph, and Texans-Browns has a 33% chance of light rain. 49ers-Cowboys has a retractable roof, so check that it's closed before kickoff, because an open roof with rain and 26 mph gusts would change the picture. Three games carry blowout risk, with Jacksonville a 10.5-point favorite, Los Angeles a 9.5-point favorite, and Buffalo an 8.5-point favorite.
Best NFL DFS Games to Stack
49ers-Cowboys (SF -3.5, 55.5 total)
Prescott and Lamb are the stack, and this is the game I want the most of. Dallas is 4-5, and San Francisco is 7-1, and the total is five points higher than the next-highest game on the board. The reason to lean Dallas is the San Francisco secondary. Renardo Green (back) and Deommodore Lenoir (foot) both missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, and PFF's coverage grades have them at 67.0 and 63.5, with Upton Stout at 48.7 as the next man up. CeeDee Lamb is chalk at about 23% on DraftKings and 28% on FanDuel, and Dak Prescott is only about 8% on DraftKings and 13% on FanDuel. Lamb has a 33% target share with 904 yards and seven touchdowns in nine games, and Prescott has 2,381 yards and 16 touchdown passes. George Pickens is Questionable with a hamstring after a limited week, and Jake Ferguson is out, so the cheap fill-in is Ryan Flournoy at about 2% on DraftKings and 6% on FanDuel. Javonte Williams is 7% on DraftKings and 16% on FanDuel, and he's not part of the stack. For the bring-back, George Kittle is the piece (14% on DraftKings, 27% on FanDuel, five touchdowns), and Christian McCaffrey (21% DraftKings, 25% FanDuel) is the comeback against a Dallas run defense that ranks 24th against backs. Brock Purdy has 17 touchdown passes, but he's not the stack. Mike Evans (Achilles) is not expected to play, and Deebo Samuel is just back at practice, so he doesn't have his top two receivers. The risk is Pickens, since this stack loses its third piece without him.
Panthers-Saints (NO -2.5, 48.5 total)
Young and McMillan are the stack. This is the cleanest two-way game on the slate, with both offenses healthy and both pass defenses ranking in the bottom eight in DVOA (Carolina is 25th and New Orleans is 29th). It's indoors. Bryce Young has 2,197 passing yards and 16 touchdowns, and Tetairoa McMillan has 625 receiving yards on a 25% target share. New Orleans is 30th against No. 1 receivers, and the Saints' corners aren't strong, with Martin Emerson (shin) questionable and Kool-Aid McKinstry graded at 53.7. Young is only about 8% on DraftKings and 14% on FanDuel, and McMillan is 17% and 22%. Jalen Coker is the cheaper pivot at about 11% on DraftKings and 26% on FanDuel. The Saints side is where the chalk is. Tyler Shough is the most-owned quarterback on DraftKings at about 23%, and Chris Olave is 28%, after seven catches for 98 yards in the 23-22 overtime win over Cleveland, and he has 734 yards on the season. Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) made his debut last week and is about 12% on DraftKings and 28% on FanDuel. The bring-back for the Panthers is Olave, and Chuba Hubbard (25% DraftKings, 36% FanDuel) is a running back who's going to be popular against New Orleans' 30th-ranked run defense. Alvin Kamara is the comeback for the Saints stack at 6% on DraftKings. Carolina's Will Lee III is out in the secondary, which helps the Saints' receivers. The risk is how popular this game is on FanDuel.
Jaguars-Titans (JAX -10.5, 46.5 total)
Lawrence and Washington are the stack, and it's a Jaguars-only stack. Tennessee's pass defense is the worst in the league by DVOA, and it's 28th against No. 2 receivers and last against No. 3 receivers. The Titans' corners are a big reason, since PFF has Alontae Taylor at 30.1 and Joshua Williams at 39.6, two of the lowest coverage grades on the slate. Jacksonville is 6-2. Trevor Lawrence is about 8% on DraftKings and 7% on FanDuel, and Parker Washington is about 11% and 15%. Lawrence has 18 touchdown passes against four interceptions, and Washington has five touchdowns and a 25% target share. Jakobi Meyers is off the injury report and is the third piece at about 17% on DraftKings at $4,200, but only 4.5% on FanDuel, so he's the better play on DraftKings. Brian Thomas is the cheap fill-in at $3,700 and under 1%. Bhayshul Tuten is also off the report and is about 17% on DraftKings and 23% on FanDuel, and he's not part of the stack. There's nothing worth bringing back. Tennessee's offense is 1-7 with Carnell Tate out, and Cam Ward is under 5% on DraftKings. The weather is 52 degrees, dry, with a 5 mph wind. The risk is the 10.5-point spread, since a blowout hands the second half to the running game.
Bills-Jets (BUF -8.5, 50.5 total)
Allen and Moore are the stack. Buffalo is 7-1 and implied for about 29.5 points against a Jets pass defense that is 26th in DVOA, 29th against No. 2 receivers, and 27th against No. 3 receivers. Josh Allen is about 9% on DraftKings and 7% on FanDuel, and DJ Moore is only about 4% on both sites. Allen has 2,027 yards and 12 touchdown passes, and Shakir has 412 yards to Moore's 285 in six games. Khalil Shakir (3% on DraftKings, 4% on FanDuel) is the second piece, and Dalton Kincaid is Questionable. James Cook is the chalk at about 18% on DraftKings and 21% on FanDuel, and he's not part of the stack. The bring-back is thin. Garrett Wilson is Questionable and about 10% on DraftKings, and Breece Hall (about 4% on DraftKings) is the running back comeback against a Buffalo defense that is 21st against backs. The wind is the issue here. It's 12 mph with gusts to 22 mph early, easing to 18 mph, which hurts the deep game. I'd keep it to the short and intermediate targets Allen spreads around. The risk is the combination of the wind and the spread, since a Buffalo lead means fewer pass attempts late.
Highest-Scoring Games to Target
| Game | Vegas Total | Spread | Top Stack to Build |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers-Cowboys | 55.5 | SF -3.5 | Prescott / Lamb |
| Bills-Jets | 50.5 | BUF -8.5 | Allen / Moore |
| Panthers-Saints | 48.5 | NO -2.5 | Young / McMillan |
| Chiefs-Falcons | 46.5 | KC -3 | No stack |
| Jaguars-Titans | 46.5 | JAX -10.5 | Lawrence / Washington |
| Vikings-Packers | 41.5 | GB -3 | Fade (tough pass D) |
| Seahawks-Raiders | 40.5 | SEA -6.5 | Lock / Smith-Njigba |
| Texans-Browns | 40.5 | HOU -4.5 | Fade |
Best Contrarian NFL DFS Stacks
- Seahawks stack: Drew Lock and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Las Vegas is 28th against the pass in DVOA, 28th against No. 1 receivers, and last against the run, and it's starting rookie Fernando Mendoza for the first time. Lock is Questionable but expected to start with Sam Darnold out, and he's only about 1% owned on both sites, with five touchdown passes and no interceptions in three games. Smith-Njigba is about 8% on DraftKings and 10% on FanDuel, with 1,036 yards, nine touchdowns, and a 36% target share. This is a matchup bet on a cheap quarterback. The risk is the 40.5 total and the 6.5-point spread, since Seattle could lean on Zach Charbonnet (8%) and its defense once it's ahead.
NFL DFS Games to Fade
- Chiefs-Falcons (46.5 total, KC -3): it's indoors, but Kansas City's corners are some of the best in the league, with Mansoor Delane at 77.4 and Nohl Williams at 74.2 in PFF's coverage grades, and Atlanta's pass defense is eighth in DVOA. Drake London is the 25% chalk on DraftKings, and Bijan Robinson is about 26% on DraftKings and 31% on FanDuel. Neither side gives me a stack I like.
- Vikings-Packers (41.5 total, GB -3): Kirk Cousins was traded to Minnesota on Tuesday and is expected to start after just a few practices, with Kyler Murray out with a hamstring and Carson Wentz dealing with an ankle. T.J. Hockenson (wrist, chest) and Jauan Jennings (calf) both missed practice Wednesday. Green Bay's pass defense is fourth in DVOA, fourth against No. 1 receivers and second against No. 2 receivers, and Minnesota's is second. Cousins is about 1% owned despite 20 touchdown passes this season, and Justin Jefferson is 13% on DraftKings, and that low ownership is the field pricing a tough matchup, not leverage. Josh Jacobs is out for Green Bay.
- Rams-Cardinals (39.5 total, LAR -9.5): Puka Nacua is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Los Angeles has Colby Parkinson and Konata Mumpfield as its main pass catchers. Arizona is 3-6 and has Michael Wilson on injured reserve, Jeremiyah Love out, and a defense that ranks 31st against the pass in DVOA, but the Rams don't have the receivers to use it. Kyren Williams is about 11% on DraftKings and 15% on FanDuel and is the one piece I'd consider.
- Texans-Browns (40.5 total, HOU -4.5): The forecast is 47 degrees with a 33% chance of light rain and a 12 mph wind in Cleveland. Houston is 3-5, and Cleveland is 5-4, and both pass defenses are in the top 13 in DVOA. Woody Marks is Questionable at 16% on DraftKings and 19% on FanDuel, and KC Concepcion is 10% on DraftKings. I don't have a stack here.
- Dolphins-Colts (38.5 total, IND -3.5): the lowest total on the slate. Miami is 1-7, De'Von Achane is out, and Kyle McCord is the quarterback with Malik Willis out. Indianapolis is 2-7, and Daniel Jones is under 2% owned. Tyler Warren is 32% on DraftKings at $4,400, and I'd rather not pay chalk for the only reliable piece in a game that low.
NFL DFS Stack Rankings for Week 10
This is my order, based on price, matchup, who's healthy, and ownership. Salary and ownership are for the QB and his pass-catcher on each site.
| Rank | QB / Pass-Catcher Stack | Game (Total, Spread) | DK Sal | DK Own% | FD Sal | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dak Prescott / CeeDee Lamb | DAL/SF (55.5, SF -3.5) | $15,200 | 15.4% | $16,900 | 20.5% |
| 2 | Bryce Young / Tetairoa McMillan | CAR/NO (48.5, NO -2.5) | $12,500 | 12.5% | $14,700 | 18.0% |
| 3 | Trevor Lawrence / Parker Washington | JAX/TEN (46.5, JAX -10.5) | $12,800 | 9.8% | $14,500 | 11.1% |
| 4 | Josh Allen / DJ Moore | BUF/NYJ (50.5, BUF -8.5) | $13,300 | 6.6% | $16,200 | 5.6% |
| 5 | Drew Lock / Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA/LV (40.5, SEA -6.5) | $14,300 | 4.8% | $16,500 | 5.3% |
| 6 | Tyler Shough / Chris Olave | NO/CAR (48.5, NO -2.5) | $12,600 | 25.1% | $15,200 | 20.3% |
Cowboys-49ers is where I want the most exposure, as long as the roof is closed and Pickens plays.
The leverage I like most is Young and McMillan in Panthers-Saints, because the field is piling into Shough and Olave on the other side of the same game.
Before lock, I'm checking Pickens, Deebo Samuel, Dalton Kincaid, and the roof in Dallas.