Week 8 ended the last unbeaten run in the league. The Lions beat the Vikings 19-15, the Broncos rallied past the Chiefs 28-24 to take first place in the AFC West, and the Bills smashed the Ravens 36-10 while Lamar Jackson went down with a thumb injury on his first snap back. Now the Steelers and Titans are on bye, which leaves 15 games, and if you're hunting for the best NFL games to watch this weekend, building a DFS lineup, or just trying to figure out which NFL games this week deserve your couch time, we've got a Thursday night game with quarterback chaos, a Bengals-Falcons kickoff in Madrid, and two 6-1 teams going at it on Monday night. Big spread? Somebody's about to get run off the field. Tight line? Strap in. Total pushing past 50? Every fantasy manager I know already has three tabs open on it.
Here's the whole slate, my Game of the Week, the division fights worth your attention, the live dogs I actually like, and where the fantasy and DFS value is hiding.
Best NFL Games to Watch This Week
Five games separate themselves from the pack as the best NFL games to watch this week, and it's not just the number on the spread. First-place stakes, injured quarterbacks, and a game played in Spain all factor in.
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings (Monday Night Football): The Bills are 6-1 and favored by 3.5 with a 45.5 total, and the Vikings are 6-1 after losing 19-15 to Detroit last Sunday. Buffalo has the league's highest-scoring offense, and its defense blitzed Baltimore on 64.5 percent of its dropbacks in a 36-10 win with four sacks and three takeaways. Minnesota has the stingiest defense in football, but Kyler Murray is questionable with a hamstring injury, and Carson Wentz is the expected starter if he can't go.
Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET): Two 5-3 teams meet in a rare Super Bowl XXXI rematch, and New England is a 3.5-point home favorite with a 45.5 total. Green Bay beat Carolina 27-19 on Thursday night and has had extra rest, while the Patriots beat Miami 24-19 after their Thursday night loss in Chicago. Jordan Love threw 11 touchdown passes through the first six games, and Drake Maye gave the Patriots 321 passing yards in that loss to the Bears.
Cincinnati Bengals v. Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 9:30 AM ET, Madrid): The Bengals are 3-point favorites with a 52.5 total, the highest on the board, in their first international game in seven years. Cincinnati is 5-2 after Joe Burrow threw five touchdown passes and ran for another in a 43-36 overtime win over Tennessee, and he's third in the MVP odds. Atlanta is 3-5 and coming off a 16-0 loss at Tampa Bay.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens (Thursday Night Football): The Ravens have lost three straight and are down to their third-string quarterback options. Jackson is on injured reserve after the thumb injury, Tyler Huntley is dealing with a toe issue, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano has been the fill-in. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite with a 39.5 total after a 42-7 rout of Indianapolis, and the Jaguars are 5-2.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): The Broncos are 6-2 with four straight wins, including a 28-24 comeback over Kansas City where Bo Nix threw for two touchdowns and rookie Jonah Coleman scored. Carolina is 3-4 after back-to-back losses to Tampa Bay and Green Bay, and it fired its defensive coordinator two weeks ago. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite with a 44.5 total, and the question is whether the Panthers have enough offense to keep up.
NFL Game of the Week
My NFL Game of the Week is Bills at Vikings on Monday Night Football, and it has everything you want. Two 6-1 teams, a 3.5-point spread, a 45.5 total, and a quarterback situation that could swing the whole thing. The line opened at Bills -3 and moved to -3.5 after Kevin O'Connell revealed that Murray hurt his hamstring in the loss to Detroit.
Start with the Bills, because they're rolling. Their only loss was a 29-26 home defeat to the Patriots in Week 4, and since then they've beaten the Rams in overtime, won in Las Vegas, and demolished the Ravens. Josh Allen was 21 of 34 for 289 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore, and the defense looked better than it has all year, though Baltimore was down to a third-string quarterback. Receiver Joshua Palmer (hamstring) and DJ Moore are battling injuries, and right tackle Spencer Brown missed last week's game with a back issue, so those practice reports matter.
Now the Vikings. Minnesota had allowed 74 points through six games before the Lions scored 19, and the under is 6-1 in its games. The offense is the problem, with fewer than 300 yards in each of the last two games, and Murray has completed just 49 percent of his passes against the blitz. He was 17 of 29 for 210 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception against Detroit, but he was sacked three times and left with a sore hamstring. The Vikings are also a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in the fourth quarter, while the Bills are 7-0 against the spread in the second quarter.
The matchup that decides it is Buffalo's pressure against Murray's mobility and protection, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw's shoulder also under evaluation. A healthy Murray can punish a blitz, but a limited Murray or Wentz is in trouble. I lean Bills 24, Vikings 20, and I'll take the under, but check the injury report before you commit because this line can move up until kickoff. This is the game I'd clear my Monday night for.
My strong runner-up: Packers at Patriots. Two 5-3 teams, a 3.5-point spread, and Super Bowl history make this a fun Sunday late-afternoon watch, with Love and Maye going head to head.
Best Division Matchups
Only two division games this week, but both have standings implications.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East): The Giants lead the division at 4-2-1 after J.J. McCarthy won his debut 27-21 in overtime at Houston, and they're a 3.5-point favorite with a 38.5 total. Philadelphia is 2-6 with six straight losses, including a 27-10 defeat at Washington, and Jalen Hurts is out for the year.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (NFC West): Seattle is 4-4 after a 34-17 loss at Chicago, and the Seahawks are 8.5-point favorites with a 39.5 total. Arizona is 3-5 after a wild 33-30 overtime win at Dallas, and the 49ers lead the division at 6-1.
Potential NFL Upsets This Week
Want value on the underdog side? These are the NFL games this week where I think the numbers say an upset is squarely in play, and I'm not afraid to say it.
Carolina Panthers (+124 ML) vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5): Denver's offense has been the weak link all year, and Carolina has had extra rest after its Thursday night loss to Green Bay. The Panthers rank 28th in yards per carry allowed, which is a problem against Coleman, but Bryce Young has the weapons to keep this close, and the Broncos are 2-2 against the spread on the road.
Atlanta Falcons (+150 ML) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3): The Bengals gave up 36 points to a 1-6 Titans team in that overtime win, and the Falcons have been competitive even in losses, with their ground game averaging over 5.0 yards per carry earlier this season. Atlanta is better than its 3-5 record, and getting three points on a neutral field in Madrid is a nice price.
Indianapolis Colts (+215 ML) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-5.5): Dallas just blew a 14-point lead in a 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona, and its defense ranks 31st in EPA per play. The Colts are 2-6 and have lost four straight, but they're home, and Daniel Jones can throw on this defense.
Cleveland Browns (+120 ML) @ New Orleans Saints (-3): Cleveland is 5-3 even after a 27-6 loss at Pittsburgh, and New Orleans is 2-5 coming off a bye. The Saints have Tyler Shough and Chris Olave, but their defense has been one of the league's worst.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+215 ML) @ Chicago Bears (-6): The Bears are 6-2 and haven't lost a game Caleb Williams started and finished, but Tampa Bay just beat Atlanta 16-0 without Baker Mayfield completing a pass. The Buccaneers can run with Bucky Irving, and six points is a big number for a team coming off a road win.
Best Games for Fantasy Football
If you're setting lineups, these are the best NFL games this week to chase for fantasy production. The totals already told us which offenses are getting turned loose. Listen to them.
Cincinnati Bengals v. Atlanta Falcons (52.5 total): Burrow just had a six-touchdown game, and Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are in the highest-scoring environment on the slate. Bijan Robinson is the engine for the Falcons.
Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers (52.5 total): Kirk Cousins has been the reason the Raiders are 4-4, and Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty give him options. San Francisco has Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle, though McCaffrey, Mike Evans, and Nick Bosa are all questionable.
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts (51.5 total): Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens are facing a Colts defense that gave up 42 points to Jacksonville, and the over is 6-2 in Dallas games.
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins (50.5 total): Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota, and Jared Goff faces a Dolphins defense that is 0-3 at home. Malik Washington has been a top target for Malik Willis.
Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders (48.5 total): Matthew Stafford leads the league in passing yards, and Puka Nacua is his top target. Washington has Jayden Daniels back, but Terry McLaurin is out for the year.
Best Games for DFS
For DFS, you want a high total paired with a spread tight enough to keep both offenses on the field deep into the fourth quarter. That combo is where the real, usable value hides on any given slate.
Cincinnati Bengals v. Atlanta Falcons: A 52.5 total with a 3-point spread is the best game stack on the board, and the Madrid kickoff gets you an early game to build around.
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts: A 51.5 total with a 5.5-point spread. Prescott and Lamb on one side, Daniel Jones on the other, with a Cowboys defense that has given up points.
Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots: A 45.5 total and a 3.5-point spread. Love and Watson pair naturally with Maye as a bring-back.
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings: A 45.5 total and a 3.5-point spread on Monday night. Check Murray's status before you build, because Wentz changes the whole game.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers: A 44.5 total and a 2.5-point spread. Coleman is the lead back in Denver, and Young's passing volume gives you a Carolina bring-back.
Best NFL Games to Watch This Sunday 11/8
Sunday, November 8 carries the bulk of the Week 9 slate, and it's stacked from a Madrid kickoff to Sunday Night Football. Here's how the day breaks down by window.
Thursday Night Football (11/5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens: Jaguars favored by 10, total of 39.5. The 5-2 Jaguars against a 4-4 Ravens team on a three-game losing streak with Lamar Jackson on injured reserve.
9:30 AM ET Window (Madrid)
Cincinnati Bengals v. Atlanta Falcons: Bengals favored by 3, total of 52.5. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase against Michael Penix and Bijan Robinson in Madrid.
1:00 PM ET Window
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts: Cowboys favored by 5.5, total of 51.5. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, off a 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona, against Daniel Jones and a Colts team that has lost four in a row.
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs favored by 10, total of 47.5. Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker, coming off back-to-back losses to Seattle and Denver, against a 2-6 Jets team with Breece Hall questionable.
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins: Lions favored by 7, total of 50.5. Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs against a 1-6 Dolphins team.
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints: Saints favored by 3, total of 42.5. Deshaun Watson against Tyler Shough, with the 5-3 Browns coming off a loss and the 2-5 Saints off a bye.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: Giants favored by 3.5, total of 38.5, the lowest of the day. J.J. McCarthy against Tanner McKee.
Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders: Rams favored by 4.5, total of 48.5. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua against Jayden Daniels.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers: Broncos favored by 2.5, total of 44.5. Bo Nix and Jonah Coleman against Bryce Young.
4:05 PM ET Window
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers: Texans favored by 4.5, total of 40.5. C.J. Stroud and a 2-5 Texans team off a bye against Justin Herbert and an 0-7 Chargers team.
4:25 PM ET Window
Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots: Patriots favored by 3.5, total of 45.5. Jordan Love against Drake Maye in a Super Bowl XXXI rematch.
Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers: 49ers favored by 10, total of 52.5, tied for the highest of the day. Brock Purdy and the 6-1 49ers against Kirk Cousins.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks favored by 8.5, total of 39.5. Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals against Sam Darnold.
8:20 PM ET Window
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears: The Sunday Night Football headliner, Bears favored by 6, total of 47.5. Caleb Williams and the 6-2 Bears against Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving.
Monday Night Football (11/9)
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings: Bills favored by 3.5, total of 45.5. Josh Allen against Kyler Murray or Carson Wentz to close out the week.
Wherever your weekend takes you, this slate delivers. Bookmark this page before kickoff, and check back every single week for the best NFL games to watch across Thursday, Sunday, and Monday all season long.