Last week came down to a few big swings. Joe Burrow was the headliner, going 38-of-48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns, plus a rushing score, in the 43-36 overtime win over Tennessee, even with three interceptions, and Josh Allen threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another in the 36-10 rout of Baltimore. Drake Maye was efficient, going 16-of-20 for 199 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers while missing three of his top receivers, and Kyler Murray threw two touchdowns as the DraftKings value. The misses were costly. Dak Prescott, my Play of the Week, threw for just 195 yards and a touchdown and was sacked four times in the 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona, with CeeDee Lamb catching seven passes for 58 yards and George Pickens two for 48. Jacoby Brissett was benched in the second half after going 10-of-23 for 119 yards, Michael Penix threw four interceptions in a downpour in a 16-0 loss to Tampa Bay, and the Bo Nix fade missed, since he threw two touchdowns in Denver's 28-24 comeback win over Kansas City.

Now on to Week 9, where the quarterback landscape keeps shifting. Lamar Jackson is headed for injured reserve after thumb surgery and the Colts are weighing a change at quarterback, so it pays to be careful with the lower-priced options. Let's get into who deserves your salary.


 

NFL DFS Week 9 QB Picks

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $7,700

Goff has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football, with 15 touchdown passes against a single interception through seven games, and last week he finally threw that first interception, which was as much his receiver's fault as his, in the 19-15 win over Minnesota. He extended his streak to 29 straight games with a touchdown pass by hitting Jameson Williams for the game-winner, and he completed 17-of-18 passes when pressured against the league's most aggressive blitzing defense. Now he gets a Dolphins defense that ranks 29th in pass-defense DVOA, according to FTN, and has allowed 16 touchdown passes in seven games. Detroit is a seven-point road favorite with the total at 50.5. The Lions ran 39 times last week, so a lead could hold his volume down, but this is a spot I'm happy to pay for.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $8,000

Prescott is a bounce-back play after a rough overtime loss. He threw for 195 yards and a touchdown, was sacked four times and ran in another score, and his QBR was a season low, but the late-game plan was too conservative, with Dallas failing to score a touchdown on two trips inside Arizona's 30 after leading 24-10. He is still at 2,046 yards, 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions through eight games, and he has added 101 rushing yards and a score. This week the Cowboys face an Indianapolis defense that just lost 42-7 to Jacksonville and is allowing 226 passing yards a game with 14 touchdown passes. Dallas is a 6-point road favorite in a game with a 51.5 total, tied for the highest on the board.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $7,900

Mahomes has been steady even as the Chiefs have lost two straight, throwing for 1,795 yards, 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and last week he went 30-of-41 for 321 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the 28-24 loss in Denver, his first touchdown passes in three games. The lift came from Rashee Rice, who returned from his hamstring injury with seven catches for 53 yards and a score, and rookie Emmett Johnson, who had five catches for 128 yards. He has also run for 77 yards and a touchdown. The Jets' pass defense ranks 26th in DVOA, has allowed 14 touchdown passes and is giving up 208 passing yards a game. Kansas City is a 9.5-point home favorite with the total at 46.5, and at $6,100 on DraftKings he is the QB7.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $6,300 | FanDuel: $7,800

Love is a form play more than a matchup play. New England's pass defense is a good one, ranking eighth in DVOA, and the Patriots are 2.5-point home favorites, so this is the toughest matchup of my four picks. But Love is at 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns with 6 interceptions, and last week's 30-of-41, 288-yard, three-touchdown game came with his offensive line in upheaval and his receivers dropping passes. He is also still pushing the ball down the field more than any other quarterback. New England is allowing 235 passing yards a game, and a 46.5 total in a game that projects as close should keep Love throwing 40 times.

 

 

 

Best NFL DFS QB Values for Week 9

Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $7,100

Darnold is a hard sell on the surface, with 10 touchdowns against 9 interceptions and a turnover in six straight games, but the matchup is as good as it gets. Arizona ranks 31st in pass-defense DVOA and has allowed 18 touchdown passes, tied for the most in the league, and Seattle already beat the Cardinals 31-7 earlier this season. The Seahawks are 10.5-point home favorites with the total at 42.5, which puts their implied total around 26 points. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the engine, with six catches for 118 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets against Chicago, and Darnold has added 72 rushing yards on the year. The risk is the turnovers and a big lead that keeps him from throwing much, but at $5,600 on DraftKings I'll take the spot.

J.J. McCarthy, New York Giants - DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $6,800

McCarthy has been efficient in his short stretch as the Giants' quarterback, throwing for 495 yards on 49 attempts, 10.1 yards per attempt, with a touchdown and an interception, and New York comes out of the bye. Now he faces an Eagles defense that ranks 23rd in pass-defense DVOA and is allowing 244 passing yards a game with 12 touchdown passes, while Philadelphia's offense has ranked last in the league in yards per play since Tanner McKee took over, which should help the Giants keep the lead. New York is a 3.5-point road favorite, but the 39.5 total is the lowest on the board, so the ceiling is capped. At $6,800 on FanDuel, where he is the QB16, he has Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely to throw to.

 

Best NFL DFS QB Stacks for Week 9

Best QB/WR Stack

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $8,000

Stack with:

Lamb caught seven passes for 58 yards on 11 targets and Pickens had two for 48 on four targets in the overtime loss, so both are due for a bigger day. Indianapolis ranks 21st in pass-defense DVOA and has allowed 14 touchdown passes, and with a 51.5 total and Dallas a 6-point favorite, there should be plenty of volume to go around. Lamb is the safer floor, while Pickens is the home-run piece at a cheaper price.

Best QB/TE Stack

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $8,500

Stack with:

Purdy comes out of the bye with 1,748 yards, 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through seven games, and he has added 161 rushing yards and a score. Kittle caught eight passes for 88 yards in the last game before the bye, and Las Vegas ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA with 18 touchdown passes allowed, tied for the most in the league, and 251 passing yards a game. San Francisco is a 10-point home favorite with the total at 51.5. Mike Evans is questionable, so if he sits, Kittle should absorb even more targets.

Best Contrarian Stack

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $7,900

Stack with:

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,200

The field has plenty of reasons to avoid Kansas City right now, with the Chiefs losing two straight and Mahomes going two games without a touchdown pass before last week. But Rice just returned with seven catches and a score, and the offense moved the ball for 399 yards in Denver. New York is 26th in pass-defense DVOA and has allowed 14 touchdown passes, and the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites. If Rice is back to full strength, you will have a stack that most of the field has written off.

 

 

 

NFL DFS QB Fades for Week 9

Gardner Minshew, Arizona Cardinals - DraftKings: $4,500 | FanDuel: $6,600

Minshew deserves credit for the comeback, going 17-of-23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns in relief of Jacoby Brissett as Arizona scored on four straight possessions, and he was named the starter. But this is a very different test. Seattle's pass defense ranks fourth in DVOA and is allowing 169 passing yards a game, the fewest in the league, with eight interceptions. Minshew's touchdowns came against a Dallas defense that ranks 30th in pass-defense DVOA, and Seattle had held every quarterback to 176 passing yards or fewer until Caleb Williams threw for 247 on Monday night. Arizona is a 10.5-point road underdog with the total at 42.5, a game script that should push him to throw, but into the best defense he will see. It's a fade for me.

 

DraftKings vs. FanDuel QB Picks for Week 9

Jayden Daniels shows the biggest gap on the board, the QB8 on DraftKings but the QB2 on FanDuel at $8,400. Among the plays I like, Goff is four spots cheaper on FanDuel, where he is the QB7, while McCarthy and Minshew are each four spots cheaper on DraftKings. Mahomes is two spots cheaper on DraftKings, Darnold is two spots cheaper on FanDuel, and Love and Purdy are each one spot cheaper on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Prescott is the QB4 on both sites, so he is left out of the table.

PlayerDK RankDK PriceFD RankFD PriceCheaper Site (Rank Gap)
Jared GoffQB3$6,600QB7$7,700FanDuel (4 spots)
Patrick MahomesQB7$6,100QB5$7,900DraftKings (2 spots)
Jordan LoveQB5$6,300QB6$7,800FanDuel (1 spot)
Sam DarnoldQB11$5,600QB13$7,100FanDuel (2 spots)
J.J. McCarthyQB20$4,800QB16$6,800DraftKings (4 spots)
Brock PurdyQB2$6,800QB1$8,500DraftKings (1 spot)
Gardner MinshewQB23$4,500QB19$6,600DraftKings (4 spots)
Jayden DanielsQB8$6,000QB2$8,400DraftKings (6 spots)

Ranks include questionable quarterbacks and exclude quarterbacks ruled out. Quarterbacks who rank the same on both sites are left out.

 

NFL Week 9 QB Play of the Week

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $8,000

I'm going back to Prescott, because the setup is better than it was last week. Indianapolis just lost 42-7, its defense is allowing 226 passing yards a game, and Dallas is a road favorite in a game tied for the highest total on the slate. Prescott throws nearly 38 times a game, he adds a little with his legs, and he is coming off his lowest QBR of the season, which tells me the offense is due to open it back up. Lamb and Pickens are both due for a bigger day, too. Dak Prescott is my NFL DFS QB Play of the Week.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 9 QB Rankings

  1. Jared Goff
  2. Brock Purdy
  3. Dak Prescott
  4. Patrick Mahomes
  5. Matthew Stafford
  6. Jordan Love
  7. Drake Maye
  8. C.J. Stroud
  9. Jayden Daniels
  10. Sam Darnold
  11. Bo Nix
  12. Tyler Shough
  13. Deshaun Watson
  14. J.J. McCarthy
  15. Kirk Cousins
  16. Daniel Jones / Anthony Richardson
  17. Tanner McKee
  18. Geno Smith
  19. Bryce Young
  20. Justin Herbert
  21. Malik Willis
  22. Gardner Minshew