Week 7 left exactly one unbeaten team standing. The Vikings escaped the Colts 16-10 to improve to 6-0, while the 49ers fell 29-20 in Atlanta after four turnovers, and the Chiefs got shut down 20-3 in Seattle. Now the Texans, Saints, Giants, and 49ers are on bye, which leaves 14 games, and if you're hunting for the best NFL games to watch this weekend, building a DFS lineup, or just trying to figure out which NFL games this week deserve your couch time, we've got the last unbeaten team on the road in Detroit, a Ravens-Bills game that hinges on Lamar Jackson's ankle, and a Chiefs-Broncos fight for first place in the AFC West. Big spread? Somebody's about to get run off the field. Tight line? Strap in. Total pushing past 50? Every fantasy manager I know already has three tabs open on it.
Here's the whole slate, my Game of the Week, the division fights worth your attention, the live dogs I actually like, and where the fantasy and DFS value is hiding.
Best NFL Games to Watch This Week
Five games separate themselves from the pack as the best NFL games to watch this week, and it's not just the number on the spread. The last unbeaten team, a pair of first-place showdowns, and one very important ankle all factor in.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): The Vikings are 6-0, and the Lions are 4-2, with Detroit a 3-point home favorite and a 46.5 total. Minnesota has allowed just 74 points all season, and it blitzed Daniel Jones on 85.2 percent of his dropbacks last week, the highest rate in a game since 2016, in a 16-10 win where two missed Colts field goals also helped. Detroit counters with Jahmyr Gibbs, who has 620 rushing yards, fourth in the NFL, and is a leading Offensive Player of the Year contender. The Lions are coming off a 20-17 win over Green Bay that snapped the Packers' three-game winning streak.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): The Bills are 5-1 coming off a bye and favored by 3 with a 54.5 total, the highest on the board. Their only loss was a 29-26 home defeat to the Patriots in Week 4. Baltimore is 4-3 after back-to-back losses to the Browns and a 35-13 home loss to Cincinnati in which the Ravens led 13-0 at halftime without Jackson, who was ruled out the day before. Jackson has missed three straight games with a high-ankle sprain, but the Ravens averaged 395 yards per game when he started, and Tyler Huntley is 1-2 as the fill-in. Jackson says he's confident he'll return, and coach Jesse Minter says he's in a decent spot.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET): This is a game for first place in the AFC West, and the Chiefs are a 1.5-point favorite with a 40.5 total. Kansas City is 5-1 coming off a 20-3 loss at Seattle, in which Kenneth Walker, who had four 100-yard games in his first five, ran 14 times for 36 yards, and the offense managed just 213 yards. The Chiefs beat Denver 31-10 in Week 1. The Broncos are 5-2 with three straight wins, including a 30-16 win in Arizona where Bo Nix scored on a 62-yard run, the longest by a quarterback in franchise history, and RJ Harvey added a 52-yard screen touchdown.
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (Monday Night Football): The Bears are 5-2 and haven't lost a game that Caleb Williams started and finished, while the defending champion Seahawks are 4-3 after holding Kansas City to three points. Seattle is a 3-point favorite with a 46.5 total. Chicago comes in off a 30-24 Thursday night win over New England, where Luther Burden caught passes for 130 yards, and its offense leads the league in time of possession. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught nine passes for 150 yards against the Chiefs, and Emanuel Wilson ran for 100, but Sam Darnold has eight touchdowns against eight interceptions.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): Two surprising 5-2 teams meet for the second time this season, and Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite with a 39.5 total, the lowest of the week. The Browns won the first meeting 27-24 on Thursday night in Cleveland, and they've since beaten Baltimore 13-10 on a late comeback. Quinshon Judkins is questionable with an ankle injury. Pittsburgh won in Paris last week behind Aaron Rodgers, who has had a give-and-take season, and Cleveland's front now features Jared Verse and Mason Graham after the Myles Garrett trade.
NFL Game of the Week
My NFL Game of the Week is Vikings at Lions, and it has everything you want. The league's last unbeaten team against a Lions team trying to prove it still owns the NFC North, in a game with a 3-point spread and a 46.5 total.
Start with the Vikings, because the story of their season is the defense. Minnesota has allowed 74 points through six games, a league-low 12.3 per game, and Brian Flores is throwing waves of pressure at everybody, including four sacks of Jones last week. The offense isn't doing much, with 125 points scored, tied for the second fewest by any team through a 6-0 start since 1950. Kyler Murray hasn't thrown for 250 yards in a game, though he went 8 of 11 on play-action against the Colts, which is the kind of thing that could matter in this one.
Now the Lions. Gibbs is the focal point, with 620 rushing yards, and coach Dan Campbell says he avoided a serious injury in last week's 20-17 win over Green Bay. Detroit is just 1-3-1 against the spread as a favorite, the over is 5-1 in Lions games, and the under is 5-1 in Vikings games. Minnesota is also 2-0 against the spread as an underdog.
The matchup that decides it is Detroit's rushing attack against Minnesota's blitzing front. If Gibbs gets going early, the Lions can make Flores play honest and open up play-action for Jared Goff. If Minnesota gets Detroit behind schedule, the Vikings can do what they've done all year and win ugly. I lean Lions by a field goal, and I'll take the under, but I wouldn't bet against the Vikings finding a way to stay perfect. This is the game I'd clear my Sunday afternoon for.
My strong runner-up: Ravens at Bills. A 54.5 total, Josh Allen at the top of the MVP odds, and the possible return of Jackson make this the game with the highest ceiling on the board.
Best Division Matchups
Seven division games this week, and a handful of them have real standings implications.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (NFC North): The Vikings lead at 6-0, the Bears are 5-2, and the Lions at 4-2 can't afford to fall further behind. Green Bay is 4-3 and still hanging around after its loss to Detroit.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North): Both teams are 5-2, and the Ravens at 4-3 and Bengals at 4-2 are right behind. Cleveland already owns a win over Pittsburgh, so the Steelers are playing for the tiebreaker as much as the standings.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (AFC West): The Chiefs beat Denver 31-10 in Week 1 and lead the division at 5-1, while the Broncos sit at 5-2. A Denver win would put the Broncos in first place, and the Chargers are 0-6.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South): Carolina leads the division at 3-3, and Atlanta (3-4) and Tampa Bay (2-5) are both trying to climb. The Falcons stunned the 49ers 29-20 on four forced turnovers, while the Bucs ran all over Carolina 43-13 in Baker Mayfield's return from a thumb injury. Tampa Bay is a 2.5-point favorite.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders (NFC East, Sunday Night Football): The Giants lead the division, while Philadelphia (2-5, five straight losses) and Washington (1-4-1) are fighting for the next spot. The Eagles lost 38-21 to Dallas on Monday with Jalen Hurts out for the year, and the Commanders are rested after a 23-17 loss at San Francisco two weeks ago. Jayden Daniels is available, but Terry McLaurin is out for the year with a knee injury.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South): Jacksonville is 4-2 coming off a bye after two weeks in London, and Indianapolis is 2-5 after a week in which it fired general manager Chris Ballard. The Jaguars swept the Colts last December, and the line has moved to Jaguars -10.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (AFC East): New England is 4-3 after a 30-24 Thursday night loss at Chicago that ended a three-game winning streak, and Miami is 1-5 after finally winning, 28-25 over the Jets, with Caleb Douglas catching two touchdowns in his return from injured reserve. Those two meet again in Week 18.
Potential NFL Upsets This Week
Want value on the underdog side? These are the NFL games this week where I think the numbers say an upset is squarely in play, and I'm not afraid to say it.
Carolina Panthers (+154 ML) @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5): Carolina is 13-0 against the spread after an outright loss, and the Packers are 1-9-1 against the spread after one. Bryce Young had a rough day in the 43-13 loss to Tampa Bay, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, but he entered Week 7 leading the NFL in passing yards per game, and the Panthers won last year's meeting 16-13. Green Bay is on a short week, Micah Parsons is still out, and Carolina's offensive tackle Taylor Moton is hurt.
Baltimore Ravens (+154 ML) @ Buffalo Bills (-3): If Jackson plays, the Ravens are a different team, and he led the league in yards per attempt and passer rating before he got hurt. Baltimore has won just 7 of the 20 games he's missed, so his status is the whole story, though the Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings.
Cleveland Browns (+150 ML) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5): The Browns already beat Pittsburgh once, and Cleveland's defense keeps games close. Deshaun Watson has led three fourth-quarter go-ahead drives this season, and Judkins is questionable, but this has the feel of another one-score game.
Arizona Cardinals (+230 ML) @ Dallas Cowboys (-7): The Cowboys' offense is great, with CeeDee Lamb scoring twice in the 38-21 win over Philadelphia, but their defense ranks 31st in EPA per play. Arizona is 2-5 and coming off a 30-16 loss to Denver, but it beat the Rams as a double-digit underdog two weeks ago, and its defense has allowed more touchdown passes than any other in the NFL. The question is whether Brissett and the Cardinals can score enough to keep up.
Chicago Bears (+142 ML) @ Seattle Seahawks (-3): Chicago hasn't lost a game Williams started and finished, and the Bears lead the league in time of possession. Seattle's defense is the best unit in this game, but Darnold's turnover problems keep the door open.
Best Games for Fantasy Football
If you're setting lineups, these are the best NFL games this week to chase for fantasy production. The totals already told us which offenses are getting turned loose. Listen to them.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (54.5 total): Allen and James Cook lead the Bills, who are coming off a bye, and Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers anchor a Ravens offense that has lagged without Jackson, with Huntley averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt. If Jackson plays, every Baltimore skill player gets a boost.
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys (54.5 total): CeeDee Lamb scored twice in Monday's win over the Eagles, and Dak Prescott and George Pickens give Dallas a high-powered attack against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league. Trey McBride is Arizona's top target, and Brissett keeps the Cardinals moving even though he was sacked three times in Denver.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (47.5 total): Thursday night is a standalone slate. Jordan Love and Christian Watson against Young and Darren Waller, who had a 50-yard touchdown against Tampa Bay. Josh Jacobs scored on a 25-yard catch in the loss to Detroit, and Matthew Golden is dealing with foot and shoulder injuries.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (46.5 total): Gibbs is the headliner, and Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison make Minnesota's passing game worth a look even though the Vikings rarely throw for big numbers, with Murray yet to reach 250 yards in a game.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets (45.5 total): Kirk Cousins threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to the Rams, and Brock Bowers gives him a go-to target on a team that has lost four straight after a 3-0 start. New York has Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson, with Breece Hall questionable, against a Raiders defense that gave up 35 points to Los Angeles.
Best Games for DFS
For DFS, you want a high total paired with a spread tight enough to keep both offenses on the field deep into the fourth quarter. That combo is where the real, usable value hides on any given slate.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills: A 54.5 total with a 3-point spread is the best game stack on the board, and the Bills are fresh off a bye. Check Jackson's practice reports before you build.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers: A 47.5 total and a 3.5-point spread with a one-game Thursday slate. Young's passing volume gives you a natural bring-back, and Green Bay's defense ranks 12th in EPA per play allowed.
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks: A 46.5 total and a 3-point spread on Monday night. Smith-Njigba, Williams, and Burden give you plenty of correlated options, and it's a good late-swap game.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets: A 45.5 total with a 1.5-point spread is the tightest game among the middle totals. Cousins, Bowers, and Ashton Jeanty are the Las Vegas pieces, and the Jets' David Bailey brings pressure.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A 44.5 total and a 2.5-point spread inside the division. Penix, who threw three touchdown passes against the 49ers, and Bijan Robinson against Mayfield and Bucky Irving, with the Panthers having just given up the league's worst yards per carry.
Best NFL Games to Watch This Sunday 11/1
Sunday, November 1 carries the bulk of the Week 8 slate, and it's stacked from a wall of 1:00 PM kickoffs to Sunday Night Football. Here's how the day breaks down by window.
Thursday Night Football (10/29)
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers: Packers favored by 3.5, total of 47.5. Both teams are coming off a loss, with Carolina (3-3) leading the NFC South and Green Bay (4-3) snapping a three-game winning streak against Detroit. Bryce Young and Darren Waller against Jordan Love and Christian Watson.
1:00 PM ET Window
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills: Bills favored by 3, total of 54.5, tied for the highest of the day. Josh Allen and the 5-1 Bills against a 4-3 Ravens team that needs Lamar Jackson back.
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals favored by 10, total of 46.5. Joe Burrow, fresh off 292 yards and four touchdowns in a 35-13 comeback win over Baltimore, and a team with the league's easiest remaining schedule, against Cam Ward and a 1-6 Titans team whose lone win came against the Colts.
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys favored by 7, total of 54.5, tied for the highest of the day. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, off a 38-21 win over Philadelphia, against Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, with the Cardinals 2-5.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Lions favored by 3, total of 46.5. The unbeaten Vikings, who have allowed 74 points all year, face a Lions team led by Gibbs and Jared Goff.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars favored by 10, total of 46.5. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor, off a 16-10 loss to Minnesota, against Trevor Lawrence and a Jacksonville team that is 4-2 against the spread.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers favored by 3.5, total of 39.5, the lowest of the day. Deshaun Watson and the 5-2 Browns against Aaron Rodgers and the 5-2 Steelers.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets: Jets favored by 1.5, total of 45.5. Kirk Cousins, whose coach said there is no quarterback controversy, against Geno Smith, with Fernando Mendoza not expected to play.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers favored by 2.5, total of 44.5. Michael Penix and Bijan Robinson against Baker Mayfield, with both teams coming off wins.
4:05 PM ET Window
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams: Rams favored by 6.5, total of 45.5. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, off a 35-21 win over Las Vegas, against Justin Herbert and a 0-6 Chargers team that's last in scoring and has four rookies on its offensive line.
4:25 PM ET Window
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: Patriots favored by 7, total of 43.5. Drake Maye, who threw for 321 yards in Thursday's loss, against Malik Willis.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos: Chiefs favored by 1.5, total of 40.5. Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker against Bo Nix, with first place in the AFC West on the line.
8:20 PM ET Window
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders: The Sunday Night Football headliner, Commanders favored by 6, total of 40.5. Tanner McKee and a five-game-losing Eagles team against Jayden Daniels and a rested Washington squad.
Monday Night Football (11/2)
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks favored by 3, total of 46.5. Caleb Williams and the 5-2 Bears against Sam Darnold and the defending champs to close out the week.
Wherever your weekend takes you, this slate delivers. Bookmark this page before kickoff, and check back every single week for the best NFL games to watch across Thursday, Sunday, and Monday all season long.