Last week was quite the mixed bag of results, as there were a number of upsets that saw players in soft matchups struggle, and some players unexpectedly delivered solid efforts against tougher opponents. But some of our Week 6 calls hit the nail right on the head, delivering slate-winning value for those who trusted the tape. Unleashing Jonathan Taylor across DFS contests proved to be a league-winning, low-owned smash play, while keeping Bo Nix and Michael Wilson firmly on your bench saved managers from massive point-total headaches. We would have been in line for another monster day from Cam Skattebo had it not been for the stubbornness and stupidity of John Harbaugh. Yes, I feel the need to give a dig once again. I hear he's starting J.J. McCarthy this week. What could possibly go wrong?
Analyzing target distributions, rush defense efficiencies, and red-zone coverage schemes is essential to finding every hidden edge. Here are the top fantasy football matchups Week 7 has to offer, along with the landmines to avoid.
Best Fantasy Football Matchups for Week 7
Kyler Murray, QB Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts
Murray and the Minnesota Vikings return from their Week 6 bye into an absolute smash spot against a reeling Indianapolis Colts defense. Under Kevin O'Connell, Murray has continued to adapt to more play-action and under-center concepts while leveraging his elite dual-threat athleticism. The Colts come into U.S. Bank Stadium ranking 22nd in Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks, and their defensive secondary just took a massive hit after losing cornerback Sauce Gardner to a calf strain. With an elite group of weapons at his disposal, including Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and one of the strongest home-field advantages in the league, Murray has both a high rushing floor and top-five QB potential on the Week 7 slate.
Jaylen Warren, RB Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints
Warren steps into an absolute smash spot as the Steelers head across the pond to play the Saints at Stade de France. New Orleans’ front seven has taken a massive step backward against heavy ground attacks, bleeding explosive runs and high fantasy points per touch to opposing running backs. Forget about what you saw last week. The Saints didn’t stop the Giants' running game. John Harbaugh did that on his own. Warren’s dual-threat versatility as a hard-nosed inside runner and high-volume check-down option gives him immense PPR stability. Expect Pittsburgh to lean heavily on the run game overseas, locking Warren in as a high-end RB1 play.
Christian Watson, WR Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
When tracking high-upside perimeter wideouts, Watson’s matchup against the Detroit Lions secondary jumps off the page. Detroit continues to run heavy single-high man coverage, exposing their cornerbacks to deep vertical shots over the top. Watson’s elite size-speed profile makes him a matchup nightmare downfield, and Jordan Love has not hesitated to lock onto him in deep-shot situations. In what projects as one of the highest-scoring games on the Week 7 slate, Watson offers slate-breaking tournament-winning potential.
Worst Fantasy Football Matchups for Week 7
J.J. McCarthy, QB New York Giants vs. Houston Texans
If you are considering starting McCarthy this week, turn back now. The Houston Texans defense features one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the NFL, routinely forcing opposing young quarterbacks into quick throws, bad decisions, and drive-killing sacks. And ever since DeMeco Ryans took over defensive play-calling, we are finally seeing glimpses of what made the Texans defense so ferocious last year. The Giants' offensive line protection remains shaky, meaning McCarthy will likely be under constant pressure in obvious passing downs. When navigating worst fantasy football matchups, benching McCarthy against this elite Texans defensive front is a simple, stress-free decision.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears
Thursday Night Football games are notorious for low-scoring, sluggish offensive outputs, and Stevenson gets a brutal draw traveling to face the Chicago Bears. Chicago’s defense has completely shut down opposing running games inside the tackle box, allowing minimal yards before contact and holding backs out of the end zone. Combined with the short turnaround time on Thursday night, Stevenson's goal-line upside and efficiency take a massive hit, placing him firmly among the worst fantasy football matchups on the board.
Tre Tucker, WR Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams
Tucker’s big-play ability is always tempting, but taking the plunge in Week 7 against the Los Angeles Rams is a trap. The Rams’ secondary excels at limiting deep passes, utilizing two-high safety shells specifically schemed to take away over-the-top chunk plays. Tucker relies heavily on vertical targets for his fantasy output, and against a Rams defense designed to eliminate downfield strikes, his projected target volume and yardage floor are far too low to rely on in starting lineups.
Fantasy Football Matchups to Target
Jordan Love, QB Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Stacking or starting Love in Week 7 offers incredible fantasy returns. The Lions defense plays aggressive, flow-to-the-ball coverage that opens up lucrative passing lanes in play-action concepts. Love has excelled at dissecting aggressive divisional foes, and Green Bay's overall pass-rate-over-expectation (PROE) skyrockets in fast-paced dome environments like Ford Field. Look for Love to pile up passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in a back-and-forth divisional shootout. Keep in mind, as of writing this, the Lions are still expected to be without both Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, which is why we are leaning so hard into this matchup. Should things change, we will update you.
Carnell Tate, WR Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Tate continues to expand his route tree and target share in the Titans' offense, making him a premier value target in fantasy football matchups Week 7. The Cleveland Browns defense has struggled to cover secondary perimeter options when forced to focus safety help on top targets. Tate’s intermediate route-running ability and improving red-zone usage give him an elevated floor with substantial TD upside against a leaking Browns pass defense.
Fantasy Football Matchups to Avoid
Drake London, WR Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers
Apologies for this one, as I still will be starting London in a number of matchups this week. I am just lowering my expectations and ignoring silly site projections from places like ESPN, Yahoo, and Sleeper. London faces one of the toughest individual draws on the slate against an elite San Francisco 49ers defense. San Francisco limits yards-after-catch (YAC) better than almost any unit in the league and excels at physical boundary coverage against size-dominant receivers. With Atlanta likely struggling to keep the pocket clean under heavy 49ers pass-rush pressure, London’s downfield target volume will be severely restricted, making him a prime candidate for best fantasy football matchups to avoid.
Travis Kelce, TE Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks
While it feels risky to bench a legendary playmaker, Kelce’s Week 7 matchup at Lumen Field against the Seattle Seahawks demands caution. Seattle’s defense ranks among the league leaders in suffocating opposing tight ends, utilizing fast, athletic linebackers and safety brackets to eliminate short-to-intermediate safety valves. Expect Kansas City to lean more on outside wideouts and the run game (Kenneth Walker revenge game, anyone?), capping Kelce’s ceiling and making him a dangerous play for fantasy football matchups Week 7.