Week 9 ownership is all about running backs. On DraftKings, Christian McCaffrey (34.4%), Jonah Coleman (28.2%), and Jahmyr Gibbs (27.9%) lead the way, and on FanDuel, Gibbs (32.4%) and Puka Nacua (29.9%) sit on top, with Kenneth Walker at 27.1%. Most of that backfield chalk is deserved. The edge this week comes from fading the popular plays that don't hold up, like Rhamondre Stevenson and Tyler Warren, and using the low-owned players who are producing that the field is passing on.
Ownership Projections
The main slate has 11 games, covering the 1:00 and 4:00 p.m. ET windows. The Bengals-Falcons game in Madrid isn't on it. Three games are totaled at 50 or more: Cowboys-Colts at 51.5, Raiders-49ers at 51.5 and Lions-Dolphins at 50.5. San Francisco's implied total is the highest on the board, and that's why McCaffrey and George Kittle are both sitting around 29% or higher on DraftKings.
Quarterback ownership is wide open. No QB gets to 15% on either site. Patrick Mahomes (14.8%) and Malik Willis (11.2%) lead DraftKings; Jayden Daniels has fallen to 7.2%, and Willis (12.8%), Dak Prescott (12.3%), and Mahomes (11.9%) lead FanDuel. With that spread, there's no chalk QB you have to fade, and a QB from one of the shootouts at single-digit ownership is a real advantage.
On DraftKings, the cheap chalk is at tight end and defense. Greg Dulcich (17.6%) and Dalton Schultz (14.2%) are both $3,200 or less; the Saints DST is 19.5% against Shedeur Sanders, and the Giants DST is 18.2% against Joe Milton's first career start. FanDuel takes the defense chalk further, putting the Saints DST above 31%.
The two sites split on some players. Antonio Williams (27.9% on DraftKings, 12.9% on FanDuel) and Dalton Schultz (14.2% and 2.0%) are far more popular on DraftKings. Kenneth Walker (15.0% and 27.1%), Kyren Williams (3.5% and 15.9%), Travis Kelce, Jalen Coker and Matthew Golden go the other way. If you play both sites, build them separately.
Highest-Owned Players
The table below lists every player projected at 15% or higher on either site. It's sorted by DraftKings ownership.
| Player | Pos | Matchup | DK Salary | DK Own | FD Salary | FD Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF vs. LV | $8,000 | 34.4% | $8,700 | 28.8% |
| George Kittle | TE | SF vs. LV | $6,000 | 29.2% | $6,700 | 28.8% |
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN vs. CAR | $5,300 | 28.2% | $6,300 | 21.5% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET vs. MIA | $10,000 | 27.9% | $10,200 | 32.4% |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS vs. LAR | $4,100 | 27.9% | $5,500 | 12.9% |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR vs. WAS | $8,800 | 27.3% | $9,200 | 29.9% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | NYG vs. PHI | $4,600 | 23.3% | $5,200 | 25.1% |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL vs. IND | $8,300 | 21.4% | $8,800 | 22.2% |
| Saints DST | DST | NO vs. CLE | $2,900 | 19.5% | $3,600 | 31.5% |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR vs. DEN | $6,500 | 18.2% | $7,400 | 16.6% |
| Giants DST | DST | NYG vs. PHI | $2,800 | 18.2% | $4,800 | 4.7% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE vs. GB | $6,100 | 18.0% | $6,400 | 22.2% |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA vs. DET | $3,100 | 17.6% | $4,900 | 7.1% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET vs. MIA | $8,100 | 15.9% | $8,600 | 13.9% |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | NYJ vs. KC | $4,500 | 15.6% | $5,400 | 7.0% |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | KC vs. NYJ | $9,000 | 15.0% | $8,900 | 27.1% |
| Ollie Gordon | RB | MIA vs. DET | $5,600 | 12.3% | $6,200 | 15.3% |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR vs. WAS | $7,600 | 3.5% | $7,500 | 15.9% |
| Seahawks DST | DST | SEA vs. ARI | $3,800 | 7.1% | $4,700 | 15.5% |
McCaffrey (hamstring), Pickens (hamstring), Amon-Ra St. Brown (ribs), Hunter Henry (foot) and Alvin Kamara (back) are all questionable. McCaffrey returned to practice Thursday as a limited participant and says he expects to play, and Pickens was limited Thursday with Dallas hopeful he plays, so have a Ryan Flournoy pivot ready (he's up to 6.5% on DraftKings) if Pickens is ruled out. Cam Skattebo is doubtful, which makes Devin Singletary the Giants' lead back at 23.3% on DraftKings and 25.1% on FanDuel. Malik Nabers practiced fully Friday, and Garrett Wilson, A.J. Brown, TreVeyon Henderson and David Montgomery are out.
Best Chalk Plays
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF vs. LV): I'm eating this chalk. San Francisco is 6-1 and scoring 28 points per game, and McCaffrey is averaging 20.6 PPR points in that offense. Las Vegas has given up the third-most points in the league and ranks dead last in run defense according to FTN's DVOA. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are both expected to sit, so the offense runs through McCaffrey. The hamstring is the only concern, and he was a limited participant at practice Thursday.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET vs. MIA): Gibbs leads all running backs in PPR scoring at about 28 points per game. Detroit is scoring 29 points per game. Miami is 1-6 and ranks 26th against the run and 27th against running backs overall. He has the highest ceiling on the slate, and I'm fine following the field on FanDuel.
Puka Nacua (WR, LAR vs. WAS): Nacua is averaging about 22.7 PPR points per game with a league-high 37.9% target share, and with Davante Adams on IR, almost every target goes his way. Washington allows 26 points per game, ranks 24th against No. 1 receivers and is missing defensive tackles Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw, who are both on IR. Matthew Stafford (right elbow) practiced fully all week with no designation, so the concern is price and a run-heavy Rams game script, not his arm. Nacua is still a fine chalk play, but Smith-Njigba is the WR I'd rather pay up for this week (see Top Leverage Plays).
Kenneth Walker (RB, KC vs. NYJ): Walker is second among running backs in PPR scoring. Kansas City's offense has run through him more than through Patrick Mahomes this year. The Jets are 2-6, have lost three straight and rank 24th against the run. As 9.5-point favorites, the Chiefs should give Walker plenty of carries in the second half. He's owned about 15% on DraftKings and 27% on FanDuel, so DraftKings is the site to be overweight on him.
Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN vs. CAR): Coleman has been excellent since RJ Harvey went on IR. Against Kansas City he turned 15 touches into 104 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 68% of the snaps, 52% of the carries and four of five carries inside the five-yard line, and J.K. Dobbins is now a distant second. With Harvey out, Coleman also takes over the passing-down work. Carolina ranks 21st in rush DVOA and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs, so the production and the matchup both support the 28% ownership.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL vs. IND): Lamb is averaging 21 PPR points per game, third among all flex players, on an offense implied for about 28 points. The Colts have lost four straight and rank 21st in pass defense DVOA. If Pickens sits with his hamstring injury, Lamb's target share goes up even further.
George Kittle (TE, SF vs. LV): Kittle has been solid but not spectacular, averaging about 15 PPR points per game. The reason to play him this week is volume. With Evans and Samuel both expected out and Christian Kirk (knee) missing Thursday's practice, he's the 49ers' top pass catcher on a team implied for more than 30 points. He's up to 29% owned, so the ownership has caught up to the volume. He's a fine play, but I'd rather spend the tight end salary on Brock Bowers (below).
Greg Dulcich (TE, MIA vs. DET): Dulcich is a salary play, not a production play. Miami scores fewer than 17 points per game and Dulcich has been inconsistent. The matchup is what makes him playable: Detroit ranks 31st in DVOA against tight ends and gives up close to 100 yards per game to the position. At $3,100 he's a fine salary saver in cash games, but I won't chase him at 18% in tournaments.
Devin Singletary (RB, NYG vs. PHI): Singletary is the pay-down running back of the week at $4,600, owned at 23.3% on DraftKings and 25.1% on FanDuel. With Cam Skattebo doubtful, Tyrone Tracy on injured reserve and Najee Harris released, he's the Giants' lead back, with only practice-squad backs behind him. The role is the whole case, not the production: he has 18 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown and eight catches for 55 yards and another score through four games, and last week's 14.5 points is a season high. The matchup helps, since Philadelphia ranks 25th in rush DVOA and has allowed more than 100 rushing yards to running backs in three straight games, but the Eagles are fourth in DVOA against running backs overall, and this is the lowest total on the slate at 38.5, with the Giants implied for about 21. He's a fine salary saver for volume, not a player I'd chase.
Mid-Owned Plays That Beat the Chalk
Brock Purdy (QB, SF vs. LV): Purdy is averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game, eighth among quarterbacks, and he faces a Raiders defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA. San Francisco has the highest implied total on the slate, and Purdy is only about 9% owned. With the receiver room this thin, most of his targets go to Kittle, which keeps a Purdy stack simple.
Brock Bowers (TE, LV vs. SF): Bowers is averaging 20.6 PPR points per game, second among tight ends and well ahead of Kittle. He's owned around 7% on DraftKings while Kittle is at 29%. The Raiders are implied for about 21 points and will be throwing a lot as 10-point underdogs. San Francisco is only middle of the pack against tight ends, so he should have plenty of chances to produce.
Best Low-Owned Plays
Quarterback
Jared Goff (QB, DET vs. MIA): Goff is averaging 20.4 fantasy points per game, ninth among quarterbacks. Even so, he's only about 5% owned and the eighth QB off the board. Detroit scores 29 points per game, and Miami ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA while allowing almost 26 points per game. Gibbs won't score every touchdown, and Goff will throw the ones he doesn't.
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU vs. LAC): Stroud has averaged about 20 fantasy points per game with Nico Collins healthy and about 14 without him, and Collins is good to go this week. He also didn't throw an interception in the first five weeks. The Chargers are 0-7 and allow 25 points per game, and Houston is a 6-point favorite. Stroud is about 3% owned, the 12th QB off the board.
Running Back
Javonte Williams (RB, DAL vs. IND): Williams is averaging 17.2 PPR points per game, which puts him in the top 20 among all flex players, and he's only about 8% owned on DraftKings. Indianapolis has lost four straight, allows almost 28 points per game and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. Dallas is a 5.5-point favorite, and that game script should keep him on the field late.
Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE vs. NO): Judkins has been steady but not explosive, averaging about 12 PPR points per game in an offense that scores 17 per game. The matchup is the reason to play him. New Orleans ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and 29th against backs in the passing game, and it allows almost 28 points per game. With Sanders starting in place of Deshaun Watson, the Browns should lean on the run. At 7% ownership, he's fairly priced for the best rushing matchup on the slate.
Wide Receiver
Christian Watson (WR, GB vs. NE): Watson is third among wide receivers in PPR scoring with 708 yards, and he's only about 3% owned on DraftKings. He's playing through a broken rib, but he still had 113 yards on eight catches and 10 targets last week with that injury, and he came off the injury report Friday. New England ranks 26th against No. 1 receivers, though cornerback Christian Gonzalez is expected to travel with him. Check inactives before lock.
Jameson Williams (WR, DET vs. MIA): Williams is averaging more than 14 PPR points per game as the Lions' deep threat, and Miami gives up big plays downfield. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been limited in practice all week with a rib injury, which could send more targets to Williams. He's about 4% owned in a game totaled at 50.5.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET vs. MIA): Miami ranks 26th in DVOA against tight ends. If St. Brown's ribs limit him, LaPorta becomes the main underneath target. He's around 4% owned, while the field is loading up on Gibbs and Dulcich from this same game.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR vs. WAS): Higbee is 1.1% on DraftKings at $3,700 and 1.8% on FanDuel, 15th among tight ends, and Washington ranks last in DVOA against the position and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Terrance Ferguson was ruled out Friday with a new hamstring injury, and Higbee played 83% of the offensive snaps in Week 8. The caution is production: he has just three catches over his last two games, Colby Parkinson (ribs) is questionable and would take targets back if he plays, and Davis Allen is in the mix too. This is a dart throw, best used as a cheap salary saver or bring-back in a Rams stack, not a core play.
Defense
Seahawks DST (SEA vs. ARI): Seattle ranks second in defensive DVOA, allows fewer than 20 points per game and held Arizona to seven points in a September win. Gardner Minshew just took over as the Cardinals' starting QB after Jacoby Brissett was benched and traded to Baltimore, and their backfield is banged up, with Zonovan Knight in the concussion protocol and James Conner out. Arizona's implied total of 15.5 is the lowest on the slate, and the Seahawks are only about 7% owned on DraftKings. Seattle is starting Drew Lock, who is questionable with a right elbow injury, after Sam Darnold was ruled out.
Top Leverage Plays
Each pair below matches a popular play with a lower-owned player at the same position and a similar DraftKings salary. In every pair, the lower-owned player has the better combination of recent production and matchup.
| Popular Play | DK Salary | DK Own | Leverage Pivot | DK Salary | DK Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (QB) | $6,100 | 14.8% | Dak Prescott (QB) | $6,500 | 7.7% |
| Christian McCaffrey (RB) | $8,000 | 34.4% | Kyren Williams (RB) | $7,600 | 3.5% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | $6,100 | 18.0% | Woody Marks (RB) | $5,700 | 10.4% |
| Puka Nacua (WR) | $8,800 | 27.3% | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) | $9,300 | 14.1% |
| Tyler Warren (TE) | $4,600 | 14.6% | Isaiah Likely (TE) | $5,000 | 3.3% |
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL vs. IND): Prescott is the No. 6 fantasy QB at 19.1 points per game, and Dallas is implied for about 28 points. The Colts have lost four straight and rank 21st in pass DVOA, which makes this one of the best game environments on the slate. He costs $400 more than Patrick Mahomes and is owned at about half the rate (7.7% to 14.8%). Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite against a Jets defense that ranks 26th in pass DVOA, but a big lead tilts the Chiefs toward Kenneth Walker and the run, which caps Mahomes' passing volume.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR vs. WAS): With Davante Adams on IR, the Rams have every reason to run the ball, and they already lean that way. Matthew Stafford (right elbow) practiced fully and has no designation, so this is about script and matchup, not his health. They ran 38 times against 29 passes in their Week 7 win over the Raiders, and Williams had 99 yards and a touchdown. Washington's run defense ranks eighth in DVOA, but it allows 26 points per game, will be without defensive tackles Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw (both on IR), and the Rams are 4.5-point favorites implied for 26. Blake Corum is the risk, since he's split carries nearly evenly when the Rams play with a lead. Williams costs $400 less than McCaffrey and is owned at about 4% on DraftKings, compared with 34% for McCaffrey.
Woody Marks (RB, HOU vs. LAC): With David Montgomery ruled out, Marks has the Houston backfield to himself. The Chargers are 0-7, allow 25 points per game and rank 28th in run defense DVOA. Houston is a 6-point favorite, so Marks should still be getting carries late in the game. He's $400 cheaper than Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson is averaging only about 12 PPR points per game and Green Bay is fourth in overall DVOA, though only 13th against the run and 18th against running backs. With TreVeyon Henderson and A.J. Brown both ruled out, Stevenson is the Patriots' clear workhorse, so the fade is about his 18% ownership and price against a Marks role that is almost as safe at 10%, not about Stevenson's role.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA vs. ARI): Smith-Njigba leads every wide receiver in PPR scoring, with 219.4 points through Week 8, and he's already produced with Drew Lock at QB, catching three touchdowns from Lock in a 31-7 win over Arizona in September. The Cardinals have allowed the most points in the league and rank 31st in pass defense DVOA. He costs $500 more than Puka Nacua and is owned at about half the rate (14.1% to 27.3%). Nacua has been great, but Arizona is worse overall against the pass (31st in pass DVOA, compared with 25th for Washington), even though the two rank similarly against No. 1 receivers (22nd and 24th).
Isaiah Likely (TE, NYG vs. PHI): Likely is averaging 16.1 PPR points per game, one of the best marks among tight ends. Philadelphia has lost six straight, allows 25 points per game and ranks 23rd against tight ends. Malik Nabers missed Thursday's practice with a knee injury but practiced fully Friday and is expected to play, and Cam Skattebo is doubtful, which pushes Devin Singletary into the lead-back role. He costs $400 more than Tyler Warren. Warren is stuck in a Colts passing game that has thrown for fewer than 150 yards in each of its last two games, and last week he turned 10 targets into 18 yards.
Best Contrarian Plays
Kirk Cousins (QB, LV vs. SF): Cousins is the No. 4 fantasy QB at 20.6 points per game, but he's only about 1% owned. The Raiders are implied for about 21 points, and as 10-point underdogs in a 51.5-total game, they'll be throwing all afternoon. San Francisco's defense is good, allowing about 20 points per game, so this is a volume bet, not a matchup bet. If you're building Purdy stacks, adding a full Raiders bring-back puts you in a lineup very few others will have.
Tre Tucker (WR, LV vs. SF): Tucker has become the Raiders' WR1. He's averaging 12.5 PPR points per game and keeps hitting long touchdowns. The 49ers rank 25th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, which is the one weak spot in a solid defense. At $5,400 and under 2% owned, he's the receiver to pair with Cousins. A trailing game script should get him plenty of targets.
Matthew Golden (WR, GB vs. NE): Golden is the better value on DraftKings, where he's about 7% owned, compared with nearly 13% on FanDuel. He's averaging 16.4 PPR points per game, top 25 among all flex players. New England ranks 26th against opposing No. 1 receivers, though cornerback Carlton Davis III (neck) is expected to cover him physically. If Watson's broken rib forces him out early, Golden becomes Green Bay's clear top target.
Best GPP Plays
Brock Purdy (QB, SF vs. LV): This is my top stack of the week. San Francisco scores 28 points per game, and the Raiders have allowed almost 29. Pair Purdy with Kittle, since the receiver injuries leave Kittle as the clear top target. Bring it back with Bowers, or with Tucker if you want to be more contrarian. Both sides of this game should put up points, and the Raiders' side of the stack is barely owned.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL vs. IND): Pair Prescott with Lamb, and add Pickens if he's active. Dallas scores more than 27 points per game against a Colts team that has lost four straight. The Colts' passing game has been weak, so skip the bring-back and spend that salary elsewhere. Most of the field will play this game through Lamb alone, so pairing him with Prescott at about 8% ownership is already a different build.
Drew Lock (QB, SEA vs. ARI): Lock (right elbow, limited Thursday, questionable) and Smith-Njigba are a cheap two-man stack, and they've already done it against this defense. Jalen Milroe is the backup if Lock can't go. Lock threw three touchdowns to Smith-Njigba when these teams met in September, and Arizona has allowed the most points in the league. Smith-Njigba gets most of the targets when Lock is the QB, so don't add a second Seattle receiver. At $4,000, Lock frees up salary for McCaffrey or Gibbs. Seattle's defense makes a Cardinals bring-back hard to justify.
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU vs. LAC): Stroud and Nico Collins make a low-owned stack against a Chargers team that hasn't won a game. Stroud plays better when Collins is on the field. Collins is about 5% owned and Stroud is about 3%. Add Dalton Schultz if you want a third piece. The Chargers' offense has been too poor to justify a bring-back, so spend that salary on McCaffrey or Gibbs instead.
Jared Goff (QB, DET vs. MIA): Stack Goff with Jameson Williams and LaPorta instead of the obvious St. Brown build. Detroit is scoring 29 points per game and Miami ranks 29th against the pass. Miami's offense, at fewer than 17 points per game, doesn't justify a bring-back, so put that salary somewhere else.