Week 7 is a 10-game main slate, and the injury report is steering the field again. Lamar Jackson is questionable, Puka Nacua is questionable with Davante Adams on IR, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Emeka Egbuka are out, and the Giants are starting J.J. McCarthy.
Here's where I've got my money, straight from Fantasy Alarm's DK and FD models: the chalk that's earned it, the guys the field is underrating, where the real leverage lives, and how I'd build around it.
NFL DFS Ownership Projections Week 7
Three games set the tone.
Packers-Lions: Detroit is -3.5 with a 53.5 total, the highest on the slate. The Lions allow the most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks and tight ends and the second-most to receivers, per Sports Reference.
49ers-Falcons: San Francisco is a field-goal favorite with a total around 50. The 49ers are 6-0 and first in offensive DVOA, per FTN.
Bengals-Ravens: The line has swung with Lamar Jackson's status and sits around Bengals -1.5 with a 48.5 total.
Rams-Raiders (Los Angeles -4.5, 48.5) is the other game with a total near 50. At the low end, Browns-Titans (37.5), Dolphins-Jets (39.5) and Colts-Vikings (41.5) are the lowest-scoring games. Lines are a consensus of the major books as of Saturday.
Defensive DVOA through six weeks backs up where the soft spots are. Las Vegas (26th), Arizona (27th), Tennessee (29th) and Miami (30th) are all bottom-seven defenses, Detroit is 25th, and Minnesota is first.
The field has piled into the San Francisco-Atlanta backfields, the Detroit-Green Bay environment and the minimum-priced Tampa Bay pass catchers. The Vikings defense, the Bengals-Ravens passing games and the Texans receivers are all owned well below their game environments.
Highest-Owned NFL DFS Players
Christian McCaffrey leads DraftKings at 34.1%, and Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and Braelon Allen all sit near 28%. The Tennessee defense is 44.1% on FanDuel, the highest number on either site.
| Player | Pos | Team | DK Salary | DK Own% | FD Salary | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | $7,600 | 34.1% | $8,700 | 25.2% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | $9,800 | 28.9% | $9,800 | 39.6% |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | $8,500 | 28.3% | $9,400 | 33.1% |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | $5,900 | 28.3% | $6,300 | 35.4% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | $7,800 | 22.7% | $9,000 | 16.3% |
| Ted Hurst | WR | TB | $3,000 | 22.7% | $4,900 | 6.7% |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | $6,000 | 22.6% | $6,700 | 28.8% |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | $7,000 | 22.0% | $7,900 | 19.8% |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | $3,100 | 21.1% | $4,900 | 5.3% |
| Texans DST | DST | HOU | $3,400 | 21.0% | $5,000 | 12.4% |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | $6,100 | 21.0% | $6,200 | 25.9% |
| Jets DST | DST | NYJ | $2,900 | 19.6% | $4,900 | 5.3% |
| Titans DST | DST | TEN | $2,600 | 19.2% | $3,200 | 44.1% |
Best NFL DFS Chalk Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET vs. GB): Green Bay is second in pass DVOA and 27th against the run, which makes it a run funnel, and the Packers allow the fourth-most DraftKings points to running backs. Detroit has the highest total on the board. At $9,800 the risk is price and a Packers team on a three-game winning streak, but this is the one chalk play where the matchup and the environment both back the ownership.
Matthew Golden (WR, GB at DET): Detroit is 25th in defensive DVOA and gives up the second-most DraftKings points to receivers. Matthew Golden has 501 yards on 57 targets, and the Packers rank 32nd in run DVOA, so they have to throw. The risk is the shoulder that kept him limited all week, though he carries no designation.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF at ATL): With Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel out, the volume funnels to Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. San Francisco is first in offensive DVOA, and Atlanta allows the 12th-most points to running backs. The risk is a 34.1% price tag in a game San Francisco could control without needing a big day from him.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL vs. SF): Brian Robinson is out, and Atlanta is sixth in run DVOA behind a ground game averaging 5.07 yards a carry. The risk is the opponent: San Francisco is third in defensive DVOA, so this is a role play more than a matchup play.
George Kittle (TE, SF at ATL): George Kittle is the other beneficiary of the Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel absences, and Atlanta allows the 10th-most DraftKings points to tight ends. At 18.9% he's fairly priced. The risk is that Christian McCaffrey and the run game keep the passing volume modest.
Braelon Allen (RB, NYJ vs. MIA): Miami allows the second-most DraftKings points to running backs and is 30th in defensive DVOA, and Braelon Allen has 314 yards and two touchdowns while Breece Hall was out. The risk is real: Breece Hall is questionable after a limited Friday practice, and Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley said he'd be surprised if Breece Hall sat. If Breece Hall plays, Braelon Allen's 28.3% looks heavy.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR at LV): Los Angeles is a 4.5-point favorite, Las Vegas is 26th in defensive DVOA, and the Raiders allow the ninth-most points to running backs. With Davante Adams on IR and Puka Nacua questionable, goal-line work is the safest piece of this offense. The risk is that a Puka Nacua absence pushes the Rams further toward the pass.
Woody Marks (RB, HOU at NYG): David Montgomery is out, Houston is a 10.5-point favorite, and the Giants allow the 14th-most points to running backs. Woody Marks is 16.1% at $5,600 in the best script for a back on the board. The risk is that Houston's offense is better in the air (fifth in pass DVOA, 23rd in run DVOA).
Ted Hurst (WR, TB at CAR): Emeka Egbuka is out, which should push Ted Hurst's snaps to around 80%, and he runs a go route or deep fade on 21% of his routes. Carolina has backup corners on both outside spots. At $3,000 he's chalk because of the price, and the risk is a rookie with a career high of 40 yards.
Cade Otton (TE, TB at CAR): Carolina allows the ninth-most DraftKings points to tight ends, and Emeka Egbuka's absence opens targets. At $3,100 he's priced to win as the second TB option. The risk is a low ceiling at a position where one touchdown decides the slate.
Texans DST (HOU vs. NYG): J.J. McCarthy makes his first start for a Giants offense that is 30th in offensive DVOA, with a career 57.2% completion rate and 13 interceptions in 12 appearances. Houston is a 10.5-point favorite. The risk is that the Texans are missing both starting safeties, Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship.
Jets DST (NYJ vs. MIA): Miami is 0-5 and 31st in offensive DVOA, and New York is a 4.5-point favorite at $2,900. The risk is that the Jets are only 20th in defensive DVOA, so this one is about the opponent more than the unit.
Titans DST (TEN vs. CLE): Cleveland's offense is 29th in DVOA and 31st in run DVOA, and the 37.5 total is the lowest of the week. The Titans are 29th in defensive DVOA, so the risk is a unit that gets exposed by Deshaun Watson and the Browns. The 44.1% on FanDuel is a price decision.
Chalk I'm skipping
Jalen Coker (WR, CAR vs. TB): He's 21.0%, but Tampa Bay is sixth in defensive DVOA, and the ownership is paying for Carolina's environment, not Jalen Coker's matchup. Tee Higgins is the pivot.
Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV vs. LAR): He's 17.9%, but the Rams are 10th in defensive DVOA, Las Vegas is 29th in run DVOA, and Mike Washington Jr. is questionable. It's a tough price for a modest matchup.
KC Concepcion (WR, CLE at TEN): He's 15.4% in the lowest-total game of the week, with a Cleveland offense that is 29th in DVOA.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB at CAR): He's 16.6% with no touchdowns and no game above 46 yards. Emeka Egbuka's absence helps, but the ceiling is low.
Best NFL DFS Low-Owned Plays
Jonathan Taylor at 1.6% isn't leverage. The Vikings allow the fewest DraftKings points per game to running backs (15.1), and Indianapolis is on the wrong side of a 6.5-point spread.
| Player | Pos | Team | DK Salary | DK Own% | Pos Rank | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | $6,900 | 3.8% | QB9 | 7.7% |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | $6,600 | 3.4% | QB11 | 2.6% |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | $6,400 | 2.7% | QB14 | 4.8% |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | $5,500 | 7.5% | WR14 | 4.4% |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | $6,600 | 7.3% | WR15 | 12.8% |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | $7,300 | 7.2% | WR16 | 4.5% |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | $7,200 | 3.9% | WR23 | 8.9% |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | $3,900 | 6.1% | TE7 | 2.8% |
| Broncos DST | DST | DEN | $3,300 | 2.7% | DST8 | 2.1% |
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN at BAL): He's 3.8%, ninth among quarterbacks. Cincinnati is fifth in offensive DVOA with no injury designations, and Baltimore is missing safety Jaylinn Hawkins and edge rusher Tavius Robinson, with cornerback T.J. Tampa doubtful. The risk is Lamar Jackson, whose status has swung this line.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF at ATL): He's 3.4%, 11th among quarterbacks, with 14 touchdown passes to two interceptions and the best passer rating in football. Atlanta allows the 12th-most points to quarterbacks. The risk is that Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are out, which is why the ownership is soft.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR at LV): He's 2.7%, 14th among quarterbacks. Las Vegas allows the sixth-most points to quarterbacks and is 26th in defensive DVOA, and the Rams are near 27 implied points. The risk is the receiver room, with Davante Adams on IR and Puka Nacua questionable.
Wide receivers
Nico Collins (WR, HOU at NYG): He's 3.9%, 23rd among receivers, in the highest-implied offense on the slate outside Detroit. The Giants are 22nd in defensive DVOA and are missing cornerback Greg Newsome II, with Paulson Adebo questionable. The risk is a blowout script that cuts Houston's pass volume.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN vs. IND): He's 7.2%, 16th among receivers, and Indianapolis will be without cornerback Sauce Gardner. Justin Jefferson went full in practice Friday after a limited Wednesday. The risk is a Vikings offense that is 27th in DVOA.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN at BAL): He's 7.3%, 15th among receivers, and Baltimore allows the 11th-most points to wideouts. The risk is the same Lamar Jackson swing as Joe Burrow.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN at ARI): He's 7.5%, 14th among receivers, and was fully cleared Friday after a limited week with a chest injury. Arizona is 30th in pass DVOA and allows the 10th-most points to receivers. The risk is Bo Nix's slump.
Tight ends and defense
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL vs. CIN): He's 6.1%, seventh among tight ends, and Cincinnati allows the eighth-most DraftKings points to the position. The risk is a touchdown-dependent role.
Broncos DST (DEN at ARI): They're 2.7%, eighth among defenses, and Denver is fifth in defensive DVOA and fourth against the pass, against an Arizona team missing offensive lineman Jon Gaines II. The risk is cornerback Pat Surtain, who is questionable, and safety Talanoa Hufanga is out.
Mid-owned plays that still beat the chalk
Tucker Kraft (TE, GB at DET): He's 14.6%, third among tight ends, and Detroit allows the most DraftKings points per game to the position. ESPN's tracking data has Detroit's linebackers biting on play-action more than most. The risk is a Packers offense built around its receivers.
Bucky Irving (RB, TB at CAR): He's 14.5%, eighth among running backs, against a Carolina defense that allows the fifth-most points to running backs. He practiced fully Friday after an illness. The risk is a Tampa Bay team that is 1-5 and playing without tackle Luke Goedeke.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN at BAL): He's 12.7%, ninth among receivers, off the slowest start of his career. Baltimore allows the 11th-most points to wideouts and is missing a starting safety. The risk is the Lamar Jackson swing.
Bo Nix (QB, DEN at ARI): He's 8.0%, fifth among quarterbacks, against a defense that is 27th in DVOA and allows the fifth-most points to quarterbacks. The risk is the slump.
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU at NYG): He's 7.3%, sixth among quarterbacks, and Houston is fifth in pass DVOA. The Giants allow the fourth-most points to quarterbacks. The risk is a 10.5-point spread that could slow the passing game down.
Top NFL DFS Leverage Plays
| Higher-Owned (A) | Sal | Own% | Leverage Play (B) | Sal | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DK) | $7,800 | 22.7% | Ja'Marr Chase | $8,100 | 12.7% |
| Jalen Coker (WR, DK) | $6,100 | 21.0% | Tee Higgins | $6,600 | 7.3% |
| Cade Otton (TE, DK) | $3,100 | 21.1% | Tyler Higbee | $3,500 | 9.8% |
| Texans DST (DST, DK) | $3,400 | 21.0% | Vikings DST | $3,500 | 6.3% |
Ja'Marr Chase off Amon-Ra St. Brown. Amon-Ra St. Brown faces a Green Bay pass defense that is second in DVOA. Ja'Marr Chase faces a Baltimore defense that allows the 11th-most points to receivers and is missing a safety and a cornerback, for $300 more and almost half the ownership.
Tee Higgins off Jalen Coker. Tampa Bay is sixth in defensive DVOA, while Baltimore is down two starters in the secondary. Tee Higgins costs $500 more and is owned at about a third of Jalen Coker.
Tyler Higbee off Cade Otton. Both tight ends get a target bump, Cade Otton from Emeka Egbuka's absence and Tyler Higbee from Davante Adams on IR and Puka Nacua's calf. Las Vegas allows the seventh-most points to tight ends, and Tyler Higbee is at less than half Cade Otton's ownership for $400 more.
Vikings off Texans DST. Minnesota is first in defensive DVOA and first in EPA per play, with the second-best pass-rush win rate, against an Indianapolis offense that is 21st in DVOA and without tight end Tyler Warren. Houston has a good matchup too, but the Vikings cost $100 more at less than a third of the ownership.
Best Contrarian NFL DFS Plays
Stack the stuff nobody's touching, and pair quarterbacks with their pass catchers, not their own running backs.
Bengals-Ravens: Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Baltimore is missing safety Jaylinn Hawkins and cornerback T.J. Tampa is doubtful, and Joe Burrow is 3.8% with Tee Higgins at 7.3%. If Lamar Jackson plays, add Zay Flowers as the bring-back.
Texans-Giants: C.J. Stroud with Nico Collins. Houston is a 10.5-point favorite near 27 implied points, and Nico Collins is 3.9% at WR23. The risk is a blowout that leans on Woody Marks.
Vikings-Colts: Kyler Murray with Justin Jefferson. Indianapolis is without Sauce Gardner, Minnesota is a 6.5-point favorite, and Kyler Murray has his full complement of skill players for the first time since Week 1. The Vikings are 27th in offensive DVOA, which is why this stack is cheap.
Rams-Raiders: Matthew Stafford with Tyler Higbee, and Puka Nacua if he's active. Las Vegas allows the sixth-most points to quarterbacks, and Matthew Stafford is 2.7%. If Puka Nacua sits, Matthew Stafford is throwing to Tyler Higbee and the backups.
Best GPP Plays Based on Ownership
Anchor with one chalk play that earned it, then build around it with the matchup-backed low-owned and leverage names instead of fading the board.
Chalk anchor: Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit has the highest total on the board and Green Bay is a run funnel.
Leverage pivot: Ja'Marr Chase off Amon-Ra St. Brown, or Tee Higgins off Jalen Coker.
Under-owned game stack: Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, or C.J. Stroud with Nico Collins.
Matchup play: Tucker Kraft at 14.6% against the defense that allows the most points to tight ends.
Defense: The Vikings at 6.3% against the field's three-defense pile-on.
Treat all of this as a read, not a promise. News breaks fast, so check inactives one more time before you lock, especially Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, Puka Nacua in Las Vegas, Breece Hall in New York, Mike Washington Jr. in Las Vegas and Pat Surtain in Arizona.