Week 6 is a 10-game main slate with the Vikings, Lions, Dolphins and Bengals on bye. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jeremiyah Love and Rashee Rice are out, and Caleb Williams is questionable.
Every play below has to clear three checks: a game environment that supports it (the total and spread), a defense that's beatable at that position or against that run or pass profile, using FTN's defensive DVOA through Week 5, and a price that makes sense relative to the ownership.
Here's where I've got my money, straight from Fantasy Alarm's DK and FD models: the chalk that's earned it, the guys the field is underrating, where the real leverage lives, and how I'd build around it.
NFL DFS Ownership Projections Week 6
Three games drive the slate.
Cardinals-Rams: Los Angeles is -12.5 with a 51.5 total, which puts the Rams at about 32 implied points. Arizona is giving up a league-high 32.4 a game.
Bills-Raiders: Buffalo is -5.5 with the highest total on the slate at 53.5.
Bears-Falcons: The total is 52.5 with Chicago -1.5.
At the other end, Steelers-Buccaneers (38.5), Ravens-Browns (39.5), Panthers-Eagles (39.5, Carolina -3) and Chargers-Chiefs (40.5, Kansas City -7.5) are the lowest-scoring games. All lines are DraftKings.
DVOA shows where the soft spots are. The Saints (31st), Titans (30th), Cardinals (28th), Bills (27th) and Raiders (26th) are all bottom-seven defenses overall in FTN's rankings. The Saints are last against the run, the Titans (31st) and Cardinals (30th) are bottom-three against the pass, and the Bears are 30th against the run.
The field has piled into the Rams side of Cardinals-Rams, the Atlanta side of Bears-Falcons and a cluster of cheap running backs. Buffalo's passing game, the Bears side of that Atlanta game and the Giants offense are all owned well below their game environments, and that's where the leverage lives.
Highest-Owned NFL DFS Players
Puka Nacua and Drake London are both north of 30% on DraftKings, and Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kyren Williams and Bijan Robinson are all above 24%. The Panthers defense at $2,500 is the one defense in the mix, and the ownership has a reason behind it.
| Player | Pos | Team | DK Salary | DK Own% | FD Salary | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | $8,100 | 36.0% | $9,000 | 36.5% |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | $7,000 | 31.9% | $7,600 | 36.5% |
| Panthers DST | DST | CAR | $2,500 | 29.0% | $3,800 | 21.5% |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | $8,000 | 28.5% | $8,700 | 28.5% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | $6,000 | 27.7% | $6,300 | 32.6% |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | $6,800 | 25.5% | $8,100 | 24.6% |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | $8,700 | 24.8% | $9,300 | 32.3% |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | $4,600 | 21.9% | $6,100 | 10.3% |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | $4,800 | 20.6% | $5,500 | 17.8% |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | $7,500 | 20.5% | $8,300 | 17.8% |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | $4,200 | 17.9% | $5,600 | 6.2% |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | $6,500 | 17.8% | $7,600 | 12.1% |
Best NFL DFS Chalk Plays
Puka Nacua (WR, LAR vs. ARI): The Rams are 12.5-point favorites with a 51.5 total. Arizona is 30th in pass DVOA and 28th overall, and it's missing defensive backs Wydett Williams (concussion) and Andrew Wingard (knee). He's the highest-priced receiver on the board, and this environment justifies the 36%.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR vs. ARI): He has 343 rushing yards, four touchdowns and 27 catches through five games. Arizona is only 13th in rush DVOA, so the case is the script: a heavy favorite, goal-line work and receiving volume. He and Nacua are correlated, so this is the cleanest way into the Rams game.
Drake London (WR, ATL vs. CHI): He has 27 catches for 488 yards, in a game with a 52.5 total. This is a role play more than a soft matchup, since Chicago is 14th in pass DVOA. The Bears are missing T.J. Edwards, Dayo Odeyingbo and the suspended Montez Sweat, and cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson are questionable.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL vs. CHI): He leads the league with 580 rushing yards. The Bears look stingy by yards per game, but they're 30th in rush DVOA, so this is a softer matchup than the box score suggests.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND vs. TEN): Indianapolis is a 7-point favorite and Tennessee is 0-5, so the script favors his touches. The efficiency is the problem: Taylor is averaging 3.9 yards per carry with no 100-yard game in 12 straight, and Tennessee is fourth in yards per carry allowed. His six rushing touchdowns are the case. Fine chalk, not a spot to pay up for.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE vs. NYJ): New England is a 7.5-point favorite, and the Jets are 26th in rush DVOA. TreVeyon Henderson (high ankle sprain) is questionable and local reports expect him to miss time, which leaves Stevenson and Corey Kiner as the only active backs. At $6,000, the role and the matchup both hold.
Xavier Worthy (WR, KC vs. LAC): Rashee Rice is out, which makes Worthy the Chiefs' top wideout. The Chargers are 0-5 and without safety Derwin James and cornerback Donte Jackson. At $4,600 and 21.9% on DK he's priced right, and the 10.3% on FanDuel is the more interesting number.
Isaiah Likely (TE, NYG vs. NO): Theo Johnson is out, and Likely practiced fully all week. That makes him the clear TE1 against a Saints defense that is 27th in pass DVOA. At $4,800 he fits the salary.
Brock Bowers (TE, LV vs. BUF): He had a full practice week with no designation. The Bills are 28th in pass DVOA, and Las Vegas is a 5.5-point underdog in a 53.5 total, which is the trailing script that feeds a tight end.
Panthers DST (CAR at PHI): Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Jalyx Hunt and Michael Carter II are all out, and Tanner McKee starts. Carolina is a 3-point favorite coming off its bye against an Eagles team that put 24 players on Wednesday's injury report. At $2,500 on DK it's also one of the cheapest defenses on the board. The Panthers are 21st in defensive DVOA, so this is about the opponent and the price, not the unit.
Chalk I'm skipping
KC Concepcion (WR, CLE): He's 17.9% on DK because he's cheap, but Cleveland's implied total is about 18.5 with Deshaun Watson at quarterback.
D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI): He's 26.9% on FanDuel into a Falcons run defense that is 11th in rush DVOA. Kyle Monangai's absence makes the volume real, but the matchup isn't a smash.
Drake Maye (QB, NE): He's 8.5% on DK against a Jets pass defense that is 11th in pass DVOA, third in sacks and fourth in passing yards allowed. It's a fine spot, just not one I need.
Best NFL DFS Low-Owned Plays
Low-owned here means low for the position, not just a small raw percentage. Each player is ranked against the other players at his position on the slate, so a 9% quarterback who's the third-highest-owned QB doesn't qualify, but a 5% quarterback in the bottom half does.
| Player | Pos | Team | DK Salary | DK Own% | Pos Rank | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | $5,400 | 5.2% | QB8 | 5.2% |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | $5,600 | 4.7% | QB9 | 3.4% |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | $6,500 | 3.4% | QB10 | 3.3% |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | $5,700 | 3.0% | QB12 | 2.0% |
| Jameis Winston | QB | NYG | $5,100 | 2.9% | QB13 | 1.7% |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | $5,800 | 3.2% | RB14 | 1.7% |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | $8,200 | 2.7% | RB16 | 4.1% |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | $4,900 | 4.5% | WR21 | 6.8% |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | $5,800 | 4.3% | WR22 | 6.8% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | $7,300 | 2.3% | WR28 | 6.1% |
| Michael Mayer | TE | LV | $3,200 | 3.8% | TE11 | 1.2% |
| Steelers DST | DST | PIT | $3,300 | 4.3% | DST10 | 3.4% |
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (QB, LV vs. BUF): He's the eighth-highest-owned quarterback at 5.2%, behind seven others including Matthew Stafford (17.3%), Daniel Jones (10.3%) and Josh Allen (9.1%). The Raiders are a 5.5-point underdog in a 53.5 total, and the Bills are 28th in pass DVOA, so Las Vegas should be throwing. Brock Bowers is the obvious stack partner.
Tyler Shough (QB, NO at NYG): He's 4.7%, ninth among quarterbacks, and he practiced fully with his hand injury. The Giants are 22nd in pass DVOA and are without cornerback Colton Hood and safety Tyler Nubin. Chris Olave (questionable) is the piece that makes the stack work.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC vs. LAC): This is the thinnest case of the group. He's 3.4% as a 7.5-point favorite with Rice out and a full practice week. The Chargers are 15th in pass DVOA, so the edge is that they're missing James and Jackson in the secondary.
Bryce Young (QB, CAR at PHI): He's 3.0%, 12th among quarterbacks, and he leads the league at 317.0 passing yards a game with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He practiced fully. The Eagles are 21st in pass DVOA and are without their starting quarterback and two defensive starters.
Jameis Winston (QB, NYG vs. NO): He's 2.9% against the worst defense on the slate. The Saints are 31st overall, 27th against the pass and last against the run. He threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns in his last game.
Running backs
Cam Skattebo (RB, NYG vs. NO): He's $5,800 at 3.2%, 14th among running backs, against the league's worst run defense by DVOA. The risk is that both Giants starting tackles are questionable.
Derrick Henry (RB, BAL at CLE): He's $8,200 at 2.7%, 16th among running backs. The Browns are 17th in rush DVOA, but they give up a 10-plus-yard run on 16% of carries, the worst rate in the league. Tackle Mason Graham and linebacker Carson Schwesinger are questionable, with two more defensive linemen out. Henry leads the league with 113 carries and seven rushing touchdowns, and with Tyler Huntley at quarterback the Ravens lean on him. The caveats are the 39.5 total and his career 57.9 yards a game against Cleveland.
Wide receivers
Rome Odunze (WR, CHI at ATL): He's 4.5%, the cheap Bears piece in the volume spot against Atlanta. The Falcons are ninth in pass DVOA but give up a lot of catches, and Caleb Williams is questionable.
Josh Downs (WR, IND vs. TEN): He's 4.3% against a Titans defense that is 31st in pass DVOA. Indianapolis is a 7-point favorite, and Downs, Keenan Allen and Daniel Jones all practiced fully.
Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR at PHI): He's 2.3%, 28th among receivers, in an offense scoring 30.3 points a game. He had 14 catches against Detroit in Week 4.
Tight ends and defense
Michael Mayer (TE, LV vs. BUF): He's the $3,200 cheap tight end in the Raiders' passing game at 3.8%. The Bills are 28th in pass DVOA, and Las Vegas should be playing from behind. Bowers will take most of the targets, so this is a cheap salary-saver, not a primary play.
Steelers DST (PIT at TB): They're 4.3% at Tampa Bay, where rookie Jalon Daniels starts a third game. Baker Mayfield (thumb) and safety Antoine Winfield are out, and cornerback Benjamin Morrison is doubtful.
Mid-owned plays that still beat the chalk
These aren't low-owned for their position, but they sit well below the chalk at that spot and have matchups that justify the gap.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF at LV): He's the third-highest-owned quarterback at 9.1%, just behind Daniel Jones, and a long way behind Stafford. Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite in a 53.5 total, and the Raiders are 26th in DVOA and 25th against the pass. He's run for 239 yards and eight touchdowns, which gives him a floor that doesn't depend on the matchup. DJ Moore is questionable again, but Keon Coleman is full.
Caleb Williams (QB, CHI at ATL): He's the conditional one: sixth among quarterbacks at 7.4% on DK, 13.8% on FanDuel. He was a full participant all week but is questionable. If he plays, Atlanta is ninth in pass DVOA but 27th in passing yards allowed, which means it gives up volume more than efficiency. Cornerback C.J. Henderson is out and A.J. Terrell is on IR.
James Cook (RB, BUF at LV): He's $7,400 at 12.8% on DK, 11th among running backs and well below Taylor, Stevenson, Williams and Robinson. The Raiders are 29th in rush DVOA, in the highest-total game on the slate.
Davante Adams (WR, LAR vs. ARI): He's 8.2% on DK, 11th among receivers, though 19.5% on FanDuel. He has 441 yards and four touchdowns, against the 30th-ranked pass defense.
Chris Olave (WR, NO at NYG): He's 7.8%, 12th among receivers. He's questionable with an illness and was limited Friday. If he's active, the Giants are 22nd in pass DVOA.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF at LV): He's 8.3%, fifth among tight ends, in the 53.5-total game against a Raiders pass defense that is 25th in DVOA. DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer are questionable.
Trey McBride (TE, ARI at LAR): He's 6.6%, seventh among tight ends, with 42 catches for 308 yards. Arizona is a 12.5-point underdog, and that trailing script funnels short targets to him. The Rams are 13th in pass DVOA, so this is a volume play, not a soft matchup.
Top NFL DFS Leverage Plays
| Higher-Owned (A) | Sal | Own% | Leverage Play (B) | Sal | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (RB, DK) | $8,000 | 28.5% | James Cook | $7,400 | 12.8% |
| Jonathan Taylor (RB, DK) | $8,000 | 28.5% | Kenneth Walker | $8,500 | 13.3% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, DK) | $6,000 | 27.7% | Cam Skattebo | $5,800 | 3.2% |
| Drake London (WR, DK) | $7,000 | 31.9% | Chris Olave | $7,600 | 7.8% |
| Isaiah Likely (TE, DK) | $4,800 | 20.6% | Dalton Kincaid | $5,100 | 8.3% |
| Panthers DST (DST, DK) | $2,500 | 29.0% | Steelers DST | $3,300 | 4.3% |
Cook off Taylor. He's $600 cheaper with half the ownership, and the rush matchup is far softer on paper (Las Vegas is 29th in rush DVOA, Tennessee is 20th) in the highest-total game on the slate.
Walker off Taylor. The DVOA edge is small, since the Chargers are 23rd against the run. But Kansas City is a 7.5-point favorite, leads the league in yards per carry (5.5) and is second in total offense.
Skattebo off Stevenson. This swaps a 27.7% back against the 26th-ranked run defense for a 3.2% back against the 32nd-ranked one. Stevenson has the better offense and the larger role, so this one is about ownership.
Olave off London. This needs Olave to be active. If he is, the Giants (22nd in pass DVOA) are a softer matchup than Chicago (14th), and the ownership gap is 4.1x.
Kincaid off Likely. It's a tight end swap into the highest total on the board, with Moore's uncertainty feeding targets.
Steelers off Panthers DST. This is a price play, $800 more, into a rookie quarterback and a banged-up Tampa Bay defense.
Best Contrarian NFL DFS Plays
Stack the stuff nobody's touching, and pair quarterbacks with their pass catchers, not their own running backs.
Raiders-Bills: Kirk Cousins with Brock Bowers. Cousins is the eighth-highest-owned QB at 5.2%, Las Vegas is a 5.5-point underdog in a 53.5 total, and the Bills are 28th in pass DVOA, which sets up pass volume. Bowers is 20.5%, so the stack carries some ownership, but the quarterback side is cheap.
Bills-Raiders: Josh Allen with Dalton Kincaid or Keon Coleman, and Brock Bowers as the bring-back. Allen is the third-highest-owned QB, but nobody is pairing him with the Raiders. The Raiders (26th) and Bills (27th) are both bottom-seven defenses by DVOA, and Buffalo is near 30 implied points. Allen's rushing floor keeps the stack alive, and Moore's status decides whether Coleman or Kincaid gets the extra targets.
Giants-Saints: Jameis Winston with Malik Nabers, best on FanDuel. Nabers is the sixth-highest-owned receiver on DK at 16.6%. The Saints are 31st in defensive DVOA, 27th against the pass and last against the run. The risk is that both Giants tackles are questionable. Winston is 2.9% on DK and 1.7% on FanDuel, and Nabers is 8.3% on FanDuel.
Colts-Titans: Daniel Jones with Josh Downs. Tennessee is 31st in pass DVOA and Indianapolis is a 7-point favorite. Tyler Warren (questionable) is the tight end piece if he's active.
Bears-Falcons: Caleb Williams with Rome Odunze, and Drake London as the bring-back, if Williams is active. The field is stacking the Atlanta side and the Bears side is barely owned. It's a volume bet more than an efficiency one, so if Williams sits, skip it.
Panthers: Bryce Young with Tetairoa McMillan. A 317-yard-a-game quarterback and his top receiver at 3.0% and 2.3%, against an Eagles team without its quarterback and with two defensive starters out.
Best GPP Plays Based on Ownership
Anchor with one chalk play that earned it, then build around it with the matchup-backed low-owned and leverage names instead of fading the board.
Chalk anchor: Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams. The Rams are the best environment on the slate, and it's the one spot where the matchup and the ownership agree.
Leverage pivot: James Cook off Taylor, or Cam Skattebo off Stevenson.
Under-owned game stack: Cousins with Bowers in Las Vegas, Allen with Kincaid or Coleman and a Raiders bring-back, or Winston with Nabers on FanDuel against the worst defense on the slate.
Matchup play at a discount: Derrick Henry at $8,200 and 2.7%, against a defense that allows a 10-plus-yard run on 16% of carries, the worst rate in the league.