Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no receiving yards, touchdowns, or receptions without a target. We want the players on our rosters in fantasy football who will earn these targets because targets are the most important thing to look at when trying to separate one pass-catcher from another on a base level. Sure, the player that earned 160 targets may be a better fantasy option than the player who earned 110, but that doesn’t take into account the offenses these players are in, the target share percentages on their particular team, how deep down the field these targets were earned, and so on. Each week, we’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. 

If you’re still playing in your fantasy playoffs, congratulations! Whether it’s your championship or the semi-finals, there’s still work to do! We have the Week 16 Target Report, and we'll review some team and player usage tendencies. Before we do that, let's dive into a legend of terms we'll be referencing:





Passes thrown in the direction of a receiver, whether intended or not.


Passes caught by a pass-catcher.

Rec. Yards

Yards gained by a reception by the pass-catcher.


Receiving touchdowns.

Air Yards

 Yards a thrown ball travels before it reaches the pass-catcher; on complete or incomplete passes. This statistic is significant for determining the quarterback and coaching staff's predictive value in an offense and their intent.

Air Yards Team Share %

A pass-catcher has a percentage share of air yards on their team in a given week.

Route %

Percentage of routes a pass-catcher runs on a pass play per dropback on their team.

Snap %

Percentage of snaps a pass-catcher plays on an offensive series on their team.

Target Share %

Percentage of targets a pass-catcher receives in a given week on their team.


A metric that measures how often a receiver is targeted when they are running a route. A higher % means that player is better at earning targets when he's on the field. A low raw route number or low route % coupled with a high TPRR % means that the pass-catcher is efficient at earning targets and could be in line for more routes depending on the team situation.


A metric that contextualizes the efficiency of a pass-catcher with how many receiving yards per route run. A much better metric than yards per reception.


aDOT is "average depth of target", and is the average depth of all targets caught or incomplete by a targeted pass-catcher.


RACR is a ratio dividing receiving yards by total air yards. It measures how many receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. The percentage of a team's air yards that a player commands based on his average depth of target and volume of targets. Most RACR numbers for running backs skew wildly by the nature of the running back position that rarely earns air yards.


WOPR is a weighted average that incorporates a player's share of team targets and share of team air yards.


PROE stands for “pass rate over expected”. The awesome nflfastR has play-by-play data going back to 1999 and for every offensive play for each NFL team since 2006, they provide an “xpass”. The xpass determines the probability a pass play is called and references factors such as down, distance, score, specific yardline, how much time is remaining and contextualizes that. A PROE is a team’s actual pass rate (percentage of pass plays divided by offensive snaps) minus their expected pass rate, which is determined with the xpass of each play. Using raw pass play percentage doesn’t factor in the context (if a team was down 21-3 with 11:03 remaining in the fourth quarter for instance) of the situation a team is in. PROE is a much better way to evaluate the intent and how aggressive an offense is with their gameplan.

A negative PROE indicates a team that is predicted to pass in given situations ran the ball more than average, while a positive PROE reflects the inverse.



Start Your Studs: Players you should be starting in all formats, regardless of matchup. Use your judgment in shallower leagues where players who are typically startable are plentiful.

Keep Them Rostered: Players that should be rostered in all formats assuming 12-team leagues with six-player benches. League size designations or other designations (bench stash, etc.) will be in parenthesis next to players for deeper leagues. As always, this is a general recommendation; depending on your league, use your best judgment.

Example: Quez Watkins (deeper 12 and 14 team), Samaje Perine (bench stash).

There is no “Dump ‘Em” with the last two weeks of the season because anybody that’s not listed as far as rosterable players shouldn’t be on your rosters.


NFL Week 16 Target Report

Arizona Cardinals

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Greg DortchWR11109805719.1%77.6%76.3%26.2%28.9%2.585.20.5271.719
DeAndre HopkinsWR1014014649.0%95.9%93.4%23.8%21.3%0.0914.60.7000.027
James ConnerRB87410-12-4.0%67.3%97.4%19.0%24.2%1.24-1.50.258-3.417
Marquise BrownWR635708026.8%71.4%65.8%14.3%17.1%1.6313.30.4020.713
Trey McBrideTE43170165.4%83.7%84.2%9.5%9.8%0.414.00.1801.063
Stephen AndersonTE2000113.7%8.2%11.8%4.8%50.0%
Kamu Grugier-HillLB114000.0%2.0%1.3%2.4%100.0%
Maxx WilliamsTE000000.0%10.2%27.6%0.0%0.0%
A.J. GreenWR000000.0%20.4%26.3%0.0%0.0%
Keaontay IngramRB000000.0%6.1%9.2%0.0%0.0%
Robbie AndersonWR000000.0%4.1%6.6%0.0%0.0%
Pharoh CooperWR000000.0%2.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%

Under the “Trace McSorley regime”, it’s expected that the efficiency of this offense (any shred that remained in the Colt McCoy-era Cardinals) would tank. Boy did it, especially for DeAndre Hopkins (1-4, 10 targets) who only caught ONE of his 10 targets. For Week 17, it makes it a bit more difficult to start him if you’re still alive and makes it almost impossible to plug in and start Greg Dortch (10-98, 11 targets, 78% routes), who hit in Week 16.

James Conner probably has the BEST running back role in fantasy at this point where there’s little danger of any of the backs behind him usurping any of his three-down role. He’s absolutely locked in regardless of whatever terrible quarterback handing him the ball.

With the quarterback issues, it’s not even worth starting or rostering guys like Marquise Brown (3-57, six targets), who hasn’t cracked double-digit fantasy points in the past three weeks.


Week 16 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: DeAndre Hopkins, James Conner

Keep Them Rostered: N/A


Atlanta Falcons

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Drake LondonWR9796010852.4%86.5%77.5%29.0%28.1%3.0012.00.8020.889
Olamide ZaccheausWR741803918.9%91.9%91.5%22.6%20.6%0.535.60.4710.462
Tyler AllgeierRB54430-7-3.4%54.1%59.2%16.1%25.0%2.15-1.40.218-6.143
Anthony FirkserTE32100125.8%27.0%21.1%9.7%30.0%
Damiere ByrdWR211504421.4%48.6%43.7%6.5%11.1%0.8322.00.2460.341
Avery WilliamsRB2214041.9%13.5%16.9%6.5%40.0%2.802.00.1103.500
Cordarrelle PattersonRB11140-7-3.4%40.5%36.6%3.2%6.7%0.93-7.00.025-2.000
Parker HesseTE1118073.4%35.1%62.0%3.2%7.7%1.387.00.0722.571
MyCole PruittTE100062.9%35.1%50.7%3.2%7.7%
KhaDarel HodgeWR000000.0%10.8%19.7%0.0%0.0%
Keith SmithFB000000.0%0.0%9.9%0.0%0.0%
Frank DarbyWR000000.0%5.4%7.0%0.0%0.0%
Feleipe FranksQB000000.0%2.7%1.4%0.0%0.0%

The Falcons played through some harsh weather in the single digits, but there were two standouts here in Tyler Allgeier and Drake London.

Starting with London but taking a bit of an overarching view at the Falcons with Desmond Ridder installed at quarterback here, the Falcons are still running the ball a TON, but are balancing out with passing the ball just a bit more.

The balance has actually made London (7-96, nine targets, 87% routes) pretty startable if you advanced him into the semifinals or championship. He’s been a top-36 WR over the last three weeks with over 10 targets per game and zero touchdowns. He’s getting there on volume, and you have to figure maybe some regression hits in Week 17?

With Cordarrelle Patterson’s production being non-existent for much of 2022, it took the Falcons long enough to realize that Allgeier (4-43, five targets; 74 yards rushing) is the guy they should be running out in all facets of their offense. Over the last two weeks, Allgeier has averaged over 20 opportunities per game and ran 54% of routes last week. Also averaging just shy of 20 fantasy points per game in PPR in the last two weeks, he should be started in your championship weeks if you’re running back-deficient or somehow available on waivers.


Week 16 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Not in this economy.

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler Allgeier, Drake London


Baltimore Ravens

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Mark AndrewsTE534503919.9%100.0%80.8%31.3%27.8%2.507.80.6081.154
Josh OliverTE31607035.7%55.6%80.8%18.8%30.0%0.6023.30.5310.086
DeSean JacksonWR211004321.9%44.4%28.8%12.5%25.0%1.2521.50.3410.233
Isaiah LikelyTE2140105.1%44.4%25.0%12.5%25.0%0.505.00.2230.400
Sammy WatkinsWR114002613.3%44.4%32.7%6.3%12.5%5.0026.00.1871.538
Demarcus RobinsonWR116163.1%44.4%53.8%6.3%12.5%0.756.00.1151.000
Justice HillRB114010.5%27.8%13.5%6.3%20.0%0.801.00.0974.000
J.K. DobbinsRB100010.5%33.3%42.3%6.3%16.7%
Patrick RicardFB000000.0%33.3%84.6%0.0%0.0%
Gus EdwardsRB000000.0%16.7%40.4%0.0%0.0%
Nick BoyleTE000000.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%0.0%
Andy IsabellaWR000000.0%0.0%5.8%0.0%0.0%

The Ravens threw the ball just 17 times and only Mark Andrews (3-45, five targets) caught more than one pass here and actually led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Full fade on every pass-catcher here that’s not named Andrews. For your own sanity.

It’s not looking likely that Lamar Jackson is going to be playing in Week 17 as he still hasn’t practiced in his last ELEVEN sessions. 


Week 16 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Mark AndrewsJ.K. Dobbins

Keep Them Rostered: N/A


Buffalo Bills

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Gabe DavisWR634519533.0%90.3%89.1%24.0%21.4%1.6115.80.5910.474
Dawson KnoxTE533815619.4%67.7%75.0%20.0%23.8%1.8111.20.4360.679
Devin SingletaryRB3219093.1%45.2%57.8%12.0%21.4%1.363.00.2022.111
Stefon DiggsWR22260258.7%80.6%67.2%8.0%8.0%1.0412.50.1811.040
Nyheim HinesRB2190248.3%6.5%4.7%8.0%100.0%4.5012.00.1780.375
James CookRB219093.1%38.7%40.6%8.0%16.7%0.754.50.1421.000
Isaiah McKenzieWR20005820.1%32.3%35.9%8.0%20.0%0.0029.00.2610.000
Reggie GilliamFB1112020.7%22.6%23.4%4.0%14.3%1.712.00.0656.000
Cole BeasleyWR119051.7%9.7%9.4%4.0%33.3%
Khalil ShakirWR115051.7%38.7%39.1%4.0%8.3%0.425.00.0721.000
Quintin MorrisTE000000.0%38.7%34.4%0.0%0.0%

Yet another weather game here against the Bears which dropped the passing-game production down a few ticks. Despite that, the Bills are worlds better than Chicago in every facet, so this was no sweat.

Stefon Diggs (2-26, two targets) had a pretty quiet and meager day all things considered, but it was secondary options who caught the touchdowns. It wasn’t a volume day by any means for Gabe Davis (3-45-1, six targets) or Dawson Knox (3-38-1, five targets), who led the Bills in targets.

The run game was on full display as all three of Josh AllenDevin Singletary, and James Cook scored rushing touchdowns.

It’s going to be another cold-weather game in Week 17 but one that should be much more hotly contested in Cincinnati against the Bengals. 


Week 16 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen

Keep Them Rostered: Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, Gabe Davis (start in deeper formats), James Cook (start in deeper formats)


Carolina Panthers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
DJ MooreWR758319763.8%100.0%95.6%33.3%30.4%3.6113.90.9470.856
Terrace MarshallWR325504730.9%100.0%92.6%14.3%13.0%2.3915.70.4311.170
Laviska ShenaultWR33530-11-7.2%43.5%35.3%14.3%30.0%5.30-3.70.164-4.818
Ian ThomasTE3112074.6%43.5%63.2%14.3%30.0%
Tommy TrembleTE2218032.0%52.2%57.4%9.5%16.7%1.501.50.1576.000
Shi SmithWR21170127.9%30.4%20.6%9.5%28.6%2.436.00.1981.417
Raheem BlackshearRB11120-3-2.0%13.0%8.8%4.8%33.3%4.00-3.00.058-4.000
Chuba HubbardRB000000.0%34.8%45.6%0.0%0.0%
D'Onta ForemanRB000000.0%21.7%44.1%0.0%0.0%
Stephen SullivanTE000000.0%17.4%22.1%0.0%0.0%
Giovanni RicciFB000000.0%4.3%5.9%0.0%0.0%

The Panthers pretty much shell-shocked the Lions, who were riding high as “America’s Darlings” for the past few weeks. And they did it with the run game, where D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard gashed the Lions repeatedly to combine for an astounding 290 rushing yards.

Our (my) favorite son, who we’ve asked to be free on numerous occasions, DJ Moore (5-83-1, seven targets), scored a touchdown and was front and center in the passing game. There has never been any doubt about Moore’s talent, but it will always come down to the quarterback play. Whoever the Panthers bring in next season will automatically be deemed “the greatest quarterback Moore has ever played with” and we’ll run through this same song and dance from this year, the previous year, and so on. It’s being rerun more times than Seinfeld. 

No other Panther earned more than three targets, but Terrace Marshall (2-55, three targets) is probably a guy that would benefit from the “get the Panthers a competent quarterback” campaign they’ll be running in 2023.


Week 16 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: D’Onta Foreman

Keep Them Rostered: DJ Moore, Chuba Hubbard (deeper formats)


Chicago Bears

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Cole KmetTE652701510.3%87.9%93.7%24.0%20.7%0.932.50.4321.800
Dante PettisWR521113020.7%81.8%73.0%20.0%18.5%0.416.00.4450.367
Velus JonesWR425207350.3%57.6%46.0%16.0%21.1%2.7418.30.5920.712
David MontgomeryRB4422053.4%57.6%66.7%16.0%21.1%
Khalil HerbertRB32-40-7-4.8%33.3%41.3%12.0%27.3%-0.36-2.30.1460.571
Byron PringleWR223402718.6%90.9%85.7%8.0%6.7%1.1313.50.2501.259
Ryan GriffinTE112021.4%15.2%27.0%4.0%20.0%0.402.00.0701.000
N'Keal HarryWR000000.0%33.3%44.4%0.0%0.0%
Khari BlasingameFB000000.0%3.0%17.5%0.0%0.0%
Chase AllenTE000000.0%0.0%3.2%0.0%0.0%

No Chicago Bear totaled more than 35 receiving yards or six targets, but Cole Kmet (5-27, six targets) earned a team-high six targets and five receptions if you’re into that.

This is still NOT a passing game to target, though Justin Fields’ rushing floor is always in play at the quarterback position.


Week 16 Chicago Bears Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin Fields

Keep Them Rostered: David Montgomery, Cole Kmet


Cincinnati Bengals

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Ja'Marr ChaseWR11879010832.4%100.0%97.6%22.4%20.0%1.449.80.5640.731
Tee HigginsWR9812819729.1%100.0%88.0%18.4%16.4%2.3310.80.4791.320
Joe MixonRB97430103.0%40.0%59.0%18.4%40.9%1.951.10.2974.300
Mitchell WilcoxTE66350195.7%56.4%65.1%12.2%19.4%
Trenton IrwinWR434527021.0%45.5%44.6%8.2%16.0%1.8017.50.2700.643
Tyler BoydWR43210133.9%63.6%50.6%8.2%11.4%0.603.30.1501.615
Samaje PerineRB43190113.3%38.2%41.0%8.2%19.0%0.902.80.1461.727
Devin AsiasiTE225051.5%27.3%38.6%4.1%13.3%0.332.50.0721.000
Stanley MorganWR000000.0%0.0%2.4%0.0%0.0%
Trayveon WilliamsRB000000.0%1.8%1.2%0.0%0.0%

In a team passing game that you can set your watch to regardless of weather or script, the Bengals in a (relatively) cold-weather game in Foxboro against the Patriots, were able to play their way to a league-high 15.8% PROE and the fourth-highest raw pass rate at 71.6%. Though that did result in inexplicably letting New England right back into the game following jumping out to a 22-0 lead, but hey, for fantasy, we certainly don’t mind the Patriots making a game out of it to increase the passing volume. 

Tee Higgins (8-128-1, nine targets) led the way with yardage, Ja’Marr Chase (8-79, 11 targets) also had a nice day and led the team in targets. Tyler Boyd (3-21, four targets) was banged up a bit with a dislocated finger and didn’t run a typical routes share (64%), which led to Trenton Irwin (3-45-2, four targets, 46% routes) being used more and he took advantage. Irwin almost had a THIRD touchdown, but Joe Burrow’s pass was slightly too long for him to reel it in.

Joe Mixon (7-43, nine targets) also earned a bunch of targets to help make up for the fact that the Bengals clearly prioritized the passing game over the run with 52 pass attempts to just 20 running back carries.


Week 16 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler BoydSamaje Perine (handcuff only)


Cleveland Browns

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Amari CooperWR10672013050.0%87.9%88.6%37.0%34.5%2.4813.00.9060.554
David NjokuTE521405822.3%90.9%97.1%18.5%16.7%0.4711.60.4340.241
Donovan Peoples-JonesWR51206525.0%100.0%97.1%18.5%15.2%0.0613.00.4530.031
Kareem HuntRB33140-22-8.5%66.7%47.1%11.1%13.6%0.64-7.30.107-0.636
David BellWR21180218.1%81.8%72.9%7.4%7.4%0.6710.50.1680.857
Nick ChubbRB1110031.2%21.2%52.9%3.7%14.3%1.433.00.0643.333
Michael WoodsWR115051.9%12.1%5.7%3.7%25.0%
Harrison BryantTE000000.0%9.1%20.0%0.0%0.0%
Pharaoh BrownTE000000.0%3.0%12.9%0.0%0.0%
D'Ernest JohnsonRB000000.0%3.0%2.9%0.0%0.0%

With the Browns being the home team and being “used to” the colder climate, they did pass quite a bit more than the Saints, they did pass quite a bit more than the Saints did. Still, it was fruitless as the Browns and Deshaun Watson attempted 31 passes, completing less than half for only 135 yards.

Only Amari Cooper (6-72, 10 targets, 88% routes) put up a usable stat line for fantasy out of the pass-catchers as no other Brown caught more than three passes. David Njoku (2-14, five targets, 91% routes) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-2, five targets) were complete non-factors.


Week 16 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Amari CooperNick Chubb, David Njoku

Keep Them Rostered: Donovan Peoples-Jones (deeper formats), Deshaun Watson (deeper formats)


Dallas Cowboys

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
CeeDee LambWR111012029939.1%90.9%84.9%31.4%27.5%
Tony PollardRB866103413.4%56.8%53.4%22.9%32.0%2.444.30.4371.794
Michael GallupWR743614618.2%93.2%83.6%20.0%17.1%0.886.60.4270.783
Dalton SchultzTE43430207.9%86.4%86.3%11.4%10.5%
Noah BrownWR215020.8%79.5%75.3%5.7%5.7%
T.Y. HiltonWR115205220.6%11.4%16.4%2.9%20.0%10.4052.00.1871.000
Jake FergusonTE11240-1-0.4%15.9%20.5%2.9%14.3%3.43-1.00.040-24.000
Ezekiel ElliottRB116010.4%36.4%46.6%2.9%6.3%0.381.00.0466.000
Sean McKeonTE000000.0%2.3%12.3%0.0%0.0%
Peyton HendershotTE000000.0%4.5%11.0%0.0%0.0%
KaVontae TurpinWR000000.0%6.8%6.8%0.0%0.0%
Malik DavisRB000000.0%0.0%1.4%0.0%0.0%

It’s a game like this in a week full of bad weather games that make Cowboys/Eagles look like a Big 12 football game with pinball scoring. Hey, both teams combined for 74 points, so there was plenty of fantasy goodness to be had!

CeeDee Lamb (10-120-2, 11 targets) is proving his 2022 fantasy drafters correct and could be a borderline first-round pick in 2023. I say that like he already wasn’t to some intrepid (me) drafters he should jump in fully next season.

Between Lamb, Tony Pollard (6-61, eight targets), Michael Gallup (4-36-1, seven targets), and Dalton Schultz (3-43, four targets), this quartet accounted for 86% of the Cowboys’ targets in Week 16 to varying degrees of success and as far as the targets are distributed, it’s how it should be. All but Pollard (57% routes) ran routes on at least 86% of dropbacks.

Former Indianapolis Colts relic and now Dallas Cowboy T.Y. Hilton (1-52, one target, five total pass routes) made a big splash play that could see him on the field a little bit more.


Week 16 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Tony PollardEzekiel Elliott, Dalton Schultz

Keep Them Rostered: Michael Gallup (fringe 12-team start but realistically a deeper-league start)


Denver Broncos

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Jerry JeudyWR106117013937.3%95.2%89.6%29.4%25.0%2.9313.90.7020.842
Greg DulcichTE843918923.9%78.6%67.2%23.5%24.2%1.1811.10.5200.438
Courtland SuttonWR7564012333.0%88.1%79.1%20.6%18.9%1.7317.60.5400.520
Latavius MurrayRB3160-5-1.3%40.5%46.3%8.8%17.6%0.35-1.70.123-1.200
Chase EdmondsRB2222030.8%35.7%41.8%5.9%13.3%1.471.50.0947.333
Freddie SwainWR21110143.8%73.8%74.6%5.9%6.5%0.357.00.1150.786
Marlon MackRB100030.8%14.3%14.9%2.9%16.7%
Jalen VirgilWR100071.9%16.7%28.4%2.9%14.3%
Eric SaubertTE000000.0%28.6%32.8%0.0%0.0%
Eric TomlinsonTE000000.0%4.8%16.4%0.0%0.0%
Montrell WashingtonWR000000.0%7.1%4.5%0.0%0.0%
Andrew BeckFB000000.0%0.0%4.5%0.0%0.0%

So the chain of causation goes something like this for the Broncos:

  • Broncos hire Nathaniel Hackett, presumably to lure Aaron Rodgers to Denver
  • That doesn’t happen, so the Broncos bring in Russell Wilson
  • $$$ WAL-MART MONEY $$$
  • Hackett is bad
  • Wilson is also bad
  • Hackett, by virtue of not being paid $161 million guaranteed like his quarterback, is fired

It all tracks. Hackett becomes one of the worst hires in recent memory (sorry Ben McAdoo, you’re not erased from public scrutiny THAT easily) and the 2022 Denver Broncos become an ESPN 30 for 30 episode.

The passing-game looks (and should be) condensed to the trio of Jerry Jeudy (6-117, 10 targets), Courtland Sutton (5-64, seven targets), and Greg Dulcich (4-39-1, eight targets, 79% routes), who comprised almost 75% of the team’s targets. The Broncos are surely kneeling out the clock on 2022, whether it’s Wilson, Brett Rypien, or some other grocery-bagger they want to take the quarterback reps.


Week 16 Denver Broncos Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Jerry Jeudy

Keep Them Rostered: Courtland Sutton, Greg Dulcich, Russell Wilson (deeper formats), Latavius Murray (deeper formats)


Detroit Lions

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR1377606720.9%89.1%83.3%31.7%31.7%1.855.20.6221.134
Shane ZylstraTE65263278.4%47.8%43.9%14.6%27.3%
DJ CharkWR5410807122.2%82.6%74.2%12.2%13.2%2.8414.20.3381.521
D'Andre SwiftRB511303811.9%52.2%56.1%12.2%20.8%0.547.60.2660.342
Josh ReynoldsWR42310319.7%58.7%60.6%9.8%14.8%
James MitchellTE22310154.7%21.7%28.8%4.9%20.0%
Jamaal WilliamsRB2230-3-0.9%13.0%24.2%4.9%33.3%0.50-1.50.067-1.000
Kalif RaymondWR115605115.9%28.3%31.8%2.4%7.7%4.3151.00.1481.098
Brock WrightTE1111020.6%23.9%40.9%2.4%9.1%
Justin JacksonRB100082.5%19.6%21.2%2.4%11.1%
Jameson WilliamsWR1000134.1%17.4%16.7%2.4%12.5%0.0013.00.0650.000
Garrett GriffinTE100000.0%6.5%15.2%2.4%33.3%

While the Lions were boat-raced by the Panthers’ apparently elite rushing attack, there were plenty of worthwhile pass-catchers who put up some quality stat lines.

Starting with the one that WASN’T worthwhile because nobody started him outside of the most degenerate of DFS players, tight end Shane Zylstra (5-26-3, six targets) scored all three of Jared Goffs touchdowns on just 48% of routes. This isn’t sustainable. Brock Wright (24% routes) and James Mitchell (22% routes) still exist in the weird Seahawks-adjacent tight end committee the Lions are employing in the post-T.J. Hockenson era.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (7-76, 13 targets) is set and forget as he’s always been when healthy, and DJ Chark (4-108, five targets, 14.2-yard aDOT) was the long man in the equation.

If there is a silver lining to not seeing Jameson Williams (one target, 17% routes)take any sort of meaningful bump in routes since he’s been healthy, it’s that Williams’ 2023 draft price is going to be very reasonable given the recency bias. Josh Reynolds (2-31, four targets, 59% routes) has been playing over him as the third wide receiver in tandem with Kalif Raymond (1-56, one target, 28% routes). 


Week 16 Detroit Lions Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Keep Them Rostered: D’Andre Swift, D.J. Chark, Jared GoffJamaal Williams (deeper formats)


Green Bay Packers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Allen LazardWR11561014343.5%95.2%89.4%28.9%27.5%1.5313.00.7380.427
Christian WatsonWR864907021.3%47.6%37.9%21.1%40.0%2.458.80.4650.700
Romeo DoubsWR633606319.1%59.5%60.6%15.8%24.0%1.4410.50.3710.571
AJ DillonRB3212010.3%42.9%57.6%7.9%16.7%0.670.30.12112.000
Marcedes LewisTE22321309.1%28.6%43.9%5.3%16.7%2.6715.00.1431.067
Robert TonyanTE21130113.3%61.9%57.6%5.3%7.7%0.505.50.1021.182
Aaron JonesRB2290-2-0.6%28.6%37.9%5.3%16.7%0.75-1.00.075-4.500
Randall CobbWR2150103.0%50.0%48.5%5.3%9.5%
Patrick TaylorRB1117000.0%2.4%7.6%2.6%100.0%
Josiah DeguaraTE114030.9%19.0%28.8%2.6%12.5%0.503.00.0461.333
Tyler DavisTE000000.0%4.8%21.2%0.0%0.0%
Samori ToureWR000000.0%7.1%9.1%0.0%0.0%

The Packers kept their season alive by not capitulating to Twitter dot com and running the ball with leather helmets. It in fact is NOT the 1930’s, and Curly Lambeau is not walking through that door. The running game was not very successful in Week 16, so the team turned to the pass (9.4% PROE, third-highest of the week) and was able to move the ball pretty steadily.

It didn’t bear a lot of fruit for fantasy purposes, however, as Christian Watson (6-49, eight targets, 48% routes) left the game early with a hip issue that may or may not linger into Week 17. Allen Lazard (5-61, 11 targets, 95% routes) saw a team-high 11 targets but only put up a modest stat line. Romeo Doubs still couldn’t run a starter’s routes share even with Watson limited.

It makes it so hard to trust any of these options, but if Watson gets a clean bill of health in a plus matchup against the Vikings, he should be started without question. If Watson cannot go, Lazard becomes the most attractive pass-catcher to roster and start from Green Bay.


Week 16 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Aaron JonesChristian Watson (if healthy)

Keep Them Rostered: AJ DillonAllen Lazard (startable if Watson can’t go, flex option if Watson is active), Aaron Rodgers (deeper formats)


Houston Texans

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Brandin CooksWR9434111241.2%77.1%83.6%31.0%33.3%1.2612.40.7540.304
Chris MooreWR422503312.1%94.3%100.0%13.8%12.1%0.768.30.2920.758
Phillip DorsettWR334504215.4%60.0%63.9%10.3%14.3%2.1414.00.2631.071
Jordan AkinsTE33390279.9%60.0%60.7%10.3%14.3%1.869.00.2251.444
Amari RodgersWR213703412.5%22.9%23.0%6.9%25.0%4.6317.00.1911.088
Brevin JordanTE2221051.8%40.0%59.0%6.9%14.3%1.502.50.1164.200
Rex BurkheadRB2270-1-0.4%28.6%18.0%6.9%20.0%0.70-0.50.101-7.000
Royce FreemanRB116010.4%22.9%60.7%3.4%12.5%0.751.00.0546.000
Jeff DriskelQB1140-3-1.1%5.7%31.1%3.4%50.0%2.00-3.00.044-1.333
Troy HairstonFB110000.0%2.9%13.1%3.4%100.0%
Teagan QuitorianoTE1000228.1%20.0%29.5%3.4%14.3%0.0022.00.1080.000
Phillip DorsettWR000000.0%60.0%63.9%0.0%0.0%
Dare OgunbowaleRB000000.0%17.1%31.1%0.0%0.0%

While the Texans were a bit more balanced between run and pass in Week 16 and while Brandin Cooks (4-34-1, nine targets, 77% routes) came back to the lineup to give their pass-catching group some semblance of talent, we’re not starting anybody here. 

Ever. Not even if there’s a fire.

Cooks did lead the Texans in targets and receptions and caught their only offensive touchdown, it’s a passing game led by a split quarterback room with low upside and a near-zero floor.


Week 16 Houston Texans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Nope.

Keep Them Rostered: Brandin Cooks as a “break glass in case of emergency” wide receiver in your league championship or semifinals.


Indianapolis Colts

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Michael PittmanWR743907431.8%100.0%100.0%25.0%19.4%1.0810.60.5970.527
Jelani WoodsTE534308436.1%61.1%63.5%17.9%22.7%1.9516.80.5200.512
Parris CampbellWR521904519.3%91.7%88.5%17.9%15.2%0.589.00.4030.422
Alec PierceWR43260187.7%77.8%73.1%14.3%14.3%0.934.50.2681.444
Deon JacksonRB3390-10-4.3%22.2%15.4%10.7%37.5%1.13-3.30.131-0.900
Mo Alie-CoxTE21202711.6%41.7%44.2%7.1%13.3%0.1313.50.1880.074
Zack MossRB1150-1-0.4%47.2%69.2%3.6%5.9%0.29-1.00.051-5.000
Jordan WilkinsRB1000-4-1.7%11.1%15.4%3.6%25.0%0.00-4.00.0420.000
Ashton DulinWR000000.0%16.7%17.3%0.0%0.0%
Nikola KalinicTE000000.0%0.0%5.8%0.0%0.0%
Mike StrachanWR000000.0%2.8%1.9%0.0%0.0%

The Colts stink, Jeff Saturday is the Nathaniel Hackett of interim head coaches, and anybody giving Zack Moss almost 70% of snaps needs to be shot out of a cannon into the sun.

Michael Pittman (4-39, seven targets, 100% routes and snaps) — America’s poster child for projectable volume out of the wide receiver position — led the way out of the Colts’ pass-catchers.

Don’t make me write anymore about the Colts, please.


Week 16 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Michael Pittman

Keep Them Rostered: Zack Moss (Saturday doesn’t want to give other, better players like Deon Jackson the ball, so our hands are tied.)


Jacksonville Jaguars

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Evan EngramTE8711303220.8%77.8%75.0%26.7%28.6%
Christian KirkWR632203422.1%100.0%80.6%20.0%16.7%0.615.70.4550.647
Marvin JonesWR431504126.6%66.7%43.1%13.3%16.7%0.6310.30.3860.366
Zay JonesWR411403824.7%66.7%79.2%13.3%16.7%0.589.50.3730.368
Travis EtienneRB33290-4-2.6%55.6%70.8%10.0%15.0%1.45-1.30.132-7.250
JaMycal HastyRB31110-2-1.3%30.6%25.0%10.0%27.3%1.00-0.70.141-5.500
Dan ArnoldTE111701610.4%13.9%18.1%3.3%20.0%3.4016.00.1231.063
Jamal AgnewWR1180-1-0.6%13.9%12.5%3.3%20.0%1.60-1.00.045-8.000
Chris ManhertzTE000000.0%13.9%43.1%0.0%0.0%
Tim JonesWR000000.0%13.9%26.4%0.0%0.0%
Luke FarrellTE000000.0%0.0%18.1%0.0%0.0%
Snoop ConnerRB000000.0%2.8%8.3%0.0%0.0%

On Thursday night, the Jaguars thoroughly outclassed the Jets, but with the Jaguars only scoring 19 points, there wasn’t too much fantasy goodness to go around.

Evan Engram (7-113, eight targets, 78% routes) continued his path of destruction, leading the Jaguars’ pass-catchers in every category. Christian Kirk (3-22, six targets, 100% route participation) and Zay Jones (1-14, four targets, 67% routes) had pretty dismal games here but to be fair, the Jaguars didn’t have to do much to put away the Zach Wilson-led Jets in suspect weather conditions. Trevor Lawrence rushed for the only touchdown scored in the entire game for both sides.


Week 16 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Trevor Lawrence, Evan Engram

Keep Them Rostered: Zay Jones


Kansas City Chiefs

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Travis KelceTE8611308341.9%87.1%81.1%29.6%29.6%4.1910.40.7381.361
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR4327052.5%87.1%83.0%14.8%14.8%
Justin WatsonWR40006532.8%71.0%73.6%14.8%18.2%0.0016.30.4520.000
Jerick McKinnonRB3331184.0%61.3%47.2%11.1%15.8%1.632.70.1953.875
Isiah PachecoRB21320147.1%29.0%49.1%7.4%22.2%3.567.00.1612.286
Kadarius ToneyWR218100.0%29.0%30.2%7.4%22.2%0.890.00.1110.000
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR20002613.1%54.8%43.4%7.4%11.8%0.0013.00.2030.000
Noah GrayTE118000.0%38.7%50.9%3.7%8.3%0.670.00.0560.000
Skyy MooreWR1150-3-1.5%19.4%20.8%3.7%16.7%0.83-3.00.045-1.667
Blake BellTE000000.0%6.5%11.3%0.0%0.0%
Michael BurtonFB000000.0%3.2%7.5%0.0%0.0%
Ronald JonesRB000000.0%0.0%1.9%0.0%0.0%

The Chiefs were in their own game with some cooler (bordering on frigid) temperatures, so the offensive output was capped at their 24-point total.

Only Travis Kelce (6-113, eight targets) put up more than five targets, three catches, and 32 receiving yards as he paced the entire receiving group who underachieved thanks to the game environment. Luckily, the Jerick McKinnon (3-31-1, three targets)  “league-winner” train kept running smoothly, as he scored another touchdown.


Week 16 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Travis KelcePatrick Mahomes, Jerick McKinnon

Keep Them Rostered: Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster


Las Vegas Raiders

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Davante AdamsWR921507727.3%94.3%96.2%30.0%27.3%0.458.60.6410.195
Hunter RenfrowWR744218630.5%65.7%47.2%23.3%30.4%1.8312.30.5630.488
Darren WallerTE545807627.0%48.6%39.6%16.7%29.4%3.4115.20.4390.763
Foster MoreauTE32190238.2%40.0%67.9%10.0%21.4%1.367.70.2070.826
Ameer AbdullahRB2227041.4%28.6%37.7%6.7%20.0%2.702.00.1106.750
Mack HollinsWR217031.1%91.4%94.3%6.7%6.3%
Josh JacobsRB116041.4%54.3%81.1%3.3%5.3%0.324.00.0601.500
Keelan ColeWR100093.2%20.0%22.6%3.3%14.3%
Jakob JohnsonFB000000.0%8.6%24.5%0.0%0.0%
Brandon BoldenRB000000.0%2.9%3.8%0.0%0.0%

The Raiders have been pretty terrible in the passing game lately, and it led to the benching of Derek Carr for Jarrett Stidham, who will start for the final two games of the season.

Can it get worse for Davante Adams (2-15, nine targets)? I mean, there’s always a maybe. Maybe he targets Hunter Renfrow (4-42-1, seven targets, 66% routes) more? Maybe Darren Waller (4-58, five targets)? No matter who gets the bulk of Stidham’s attention, the Raiders get the 49ers — the stone-worst matchup for anybody rostering Raiders in their semi-finals or fantasy championship. 


Week 16 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams

Keep Them Rostered: Darren Waller (given the squeamish look at the tight end landscape)


Los Angeles Chargers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Keenan AllenWR1411104010645.1%88.9%83.8%46.7%43.8%
Mike WilliamsWR447603414.5%91.7%85.3%13.3%12.1%2.308.50.3012.235
Austin EkelerRB4412041.7%58.3%60.3%13.3%19.0%0.571.00.2123.000
Josh PalmerWR321605121.7%69.4%58.8%10.0%12.0%0.6417.00.3020.314
Tre' McKittyTE2110062.6%27.8%45.6%6.7%20.0%
Donald ParhamTE21802811.9%27.8%35.3%6.7%20.0%0.8014.00.1830.286
Joshua KelleyRB119062.6%36.1%33.8%3.3%7.7%0.696.00.0681.500
Gerald EverettTE000000.0%52.8%54.4%0.0%0.0%
DeAndre CarterWR000000.0%13.9%19.1%0.0%0.0%
Stone SmarttTE000000.0%8.3%10.3%0.0%0.0%
Zander HorvathFB000000.0%0.0%7.4%0.0%0.0%
Larry RountreeRB000000.0%2.8%5.9%0.0%0.0%

The Chargers cruised here in a game where they didn’t did have to do much heavy lifting, but Justin Herbert honestly wasn’t great either. Most of the targets were directed toward Keenan Allen (11-104, 14 targets, 89% routes) at a 47% target share. The volume-earning continues for Allen into his autumn years thanks to Herbert.

Mike Williams (4-76, four targets) had a pedestrian game, but the Chargers didn’t need a huge game out of him with the game getting out of hand pretty quickly thanks to three Nick Foles interceptions.


Week 16 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin HerbertAustin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

Keep Them Rostered: N/A


Los Angeles Rams

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Tyler HigbeeTE1199422324.2%79.3%90.8%39.3%47.8%
Van JeffersonWR531903435.8%100.0%93.8%17.9%17.2%0.666.80.5180.559
Brycen HopkinsTE335704345.3%41.4%58.5%10.7%25.0%4.7514.30.4781.326
Brandon PowellWR33120-4-4.2%58.6%61.5%10.7%17.6%0.71-1.30.131-3.000
Cam AkersRB22290-9-9.5%62.1%75.4%7.1%11.1%1.61-4.50.041-3.222
Tutu AtwellWR221401313.7%89.7%69.2%7.1%7.7%0.546.50.2031.077
Kyren WilliamsRB1130-6-6.3%6.9%12.3%3.6%50.0%1.50-6.00.009-0.500
Malcolm BrownRB112011.1%10.3%10.8%3.6%33.3%0.671.00.0612.000
Austin TrammellWR000000.0%3.4%13.8%0.0%0.0%
Lance McCutcheonWR000000.0%6.9%12.3%0.0%0.0%
Ronnie RiversRB000000.0%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.0%

If you accurately predicted that the Baker Mayfield-led Los Angeles Rams would hang 51 points on the Denver Broncos in Week 16, then I have no words. Nobody saw this coming and it led to the firing of Nathaniel Hackett.

This drubbing came on the backs of two players: Cam Akers and Tyler Higbee.

Akers, who was left for dead earlier in the season, ran a robust 62% of routes and 75% of snaps en route to a three-touchdown performance and setting himself up for delivering some of the promise he had when he was drafted a season ago.

Higbee (9-94-2, 11 targets, 79% routes) and his 39% target share easily led the Rams on a day where Mayfield posted a 3.4-yard aDOT. A sub-Brock Purdyian level. Just like two seasons ago when Higbee became a league-winner based on getting dump-offs in blowout games from Jared Goff, the mad lad is back at it again.


Week 16 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Cam Akers

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler Higbee (it’s still gross, but it’s a “lipstick on a pig” kind of thing here.)


Miami Dolphins

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Jaylen WaddleWR6514317227.3%85.2%74.0%25.0%26.1%6.2212.00.5661.986
Tyreek HillWR64103013551.1%96.3%80.0%25.0%23.1%3.9622.50.7330.763
Raheem MostertRB324010.4%48.1%52.0%12.5%23.1%0.310.30.1904.000
Trent SherfieldWR22250249.1%51.9%44.0%8.3%14.3%1.7912.00.1891.042
Mike GesickiTE212403513.3%37.0%24.0%8.3%20.0%2.4017.50.2180.686
Jeff WilsonRB213000.0%63.0%60.0%8.3%11.8%
Alec IngoldFB2000-2-0.8%29.6%54.0%8.3%25.0%0.00-1.00.1200.000
Durham SmytheTE1180-1-0.4%25.9%64.0%4.2%14.3%1.14-1.00.060-8.000
Cedrick WilsonWR000000.0%18.5%26.0%0.0%0.0%
Hunter LongTE000000.0%3.7%8.0%0.0%0.0%

The story for the Dolphins in Week 16 is the regression of Tua Tagovailoa, who threw three second-half interceptions against the Packers and then it was reported that he sustained a concussion. Another concussion prompted the NFL to investigate this Tua situation further. Yikes.

We can always bank on consolidation from the passing game here as the Dolphins just get it to their two dynamic pass-catchers. Tyreek Hill (4-103, six targets) and Jaylen Waddle (5-143-1, six targets) both accounted for 78% of the team’s air yards, 50% of the targets, and no other Dolphin had more than two catches or 25 receiving yards.

The Dolphins will take a hit in the passing game with Teddy Bridgewater under center, but Waddle and Hill are startable in every format still. Just temper your expectations.


Week 16 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa

Keep Them Rostered: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson


Minnesota Vikings

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Justin JeffersonWR1612133115146.9%100.0%100.0%34.0%30.8%2.569.40.8390.881
T.J. HockensonTE1613109213541.9%86.5%90.3%34.0%35.6%2.428.40.8040.807
Adam ThielenWR5160278.4%90.4%91.7%10.6%10.6%
K.J. OsbornWR43170134.0%78.8%69.4%8.5%9.8%0.413.30.1561.308
Dalvin CookRB43130-6-1.9%42.3%79.2%8.5%18.2%0.59-1.50.115-2.167
Johnny MundtTE11160-1-0.3%13.5%30.6%2.1%14.3%2.29-1.00.030-16.000
C.J. HamFB115030.9%5.8%18.1%2.1%33.3%1.673.00.0381.667
Alexander MattisonRB000000.0%15.4%20.8%0.0%0.0%

Justin Jefferson (12-133-1) is #good. 16 targets in back-to-back weeks will do that.

In fact, for the second consecutive week, two Vikings had 16 targets. Last week it was K.J. Osborn, and this week it was T.J. Hockenson. In such a highly consolidated snap share, it’s games like this that can go back and forth where teams can just pepper a few targets, and we get games like this. For that to happen at the tight end position is absurd, and honestly, Hockenson (13-109-2, 16 targets) has a path to being the fantasy TE2 next season with Minnesota, supplanting Mark Andrews. Hockenson has been THAT good with Minnesota.


Week 16 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin Jefferson, T.J. HockensonDalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins

Keep Them Rostered: Adam Thielen


New England Patriots

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Kendrick BourneWR96100120552.3%59.5%57.1%29.0%40.9%4.5522.80.8020.488
Jakobi MeyersWR768317519.1%100.0%100.0%22.6%18.9%2.2410.70.4731.107
Rhamondre StevensonRB5230-1-0.3%75.7%91.1%16.1%17.9%0.11-0.20.240-3.000
Jonnu SmithTE43210143.6%56.8%57.1%12.9%19.0%
Tyquan ThorntonWR31809724.7%91.9%92.9%9.7%8.8%0.2432.30.3180.082
Pierre StrongRB2210051.3%5.4%3.6%6.5%100.0%
Marcus JonesCB11150-3-0.8%2.7%5.4%3.2%100.0%15.00-3.00.043-5.000
Nelson AgholorWR000000.0%40.5%33.9%0.0%0.0%
Damien HarrisRB000000.0%0.0%7.1%0.0%0.0%
Hunter HenryTE000000.0%2.7%5.4%0.0%0.0%

The passing game was highlighted by two players: Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers (thanks to Bourne).

Bourne (6-100-1, nine targets, 60% routes) had himself an awesome game on limited routes and Meyers’ day was capped off with a touchdown intended for Bourne that bounced off of him and Meyers (6-83-1, seven targets, 100% snaps and route participation) caught it for the score. Nobody said it had to be pretty! But it does soften the blow slightly from Meyers’ Week 15 catastrophe.


Week 16 New England Patriots Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Rhamondre Stevenson

Keep Them Rostered: Jakobi Meyers


New Orleans Saints

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Rashid ShaheedWR544102123.9%93.3%42.6%35.7%35.7%2.934.20.7031.952
Alvin KamaraRB4234033.4%73.3%70.4%28.6%36.4%
Juwan JohnsonTE21902022.7%66.7%50.0%14.3%20.0%0.9010.00.3730.450
Keith KirkwoodWR20004146.6%53.3%29.6%14.3%25.0%0.0020.50.5400.000
David JohnsonRB118033.4%26.7%27.8%7.1%25.0%
Adam TrautmanTE000000.0%33.3%74.1%0.0%0.0%
Tre'Quan SmithWR000000.0%86.7%61.1%0.0%0.0%
Marquez CallawayWR000000.0%13.3%48.1%0.0%0.0%
Taysom HillTE000000.0%40.0%46.3%0.0%0.0%
Adam PrenticeFB000000.0%0.0%33.3%0.0%0.0%
Kirk MerrittWR000000.0%6.7%5.6%0.0%0.0%

To give you a hint at how this brutal weather endured by the Saints and Browns took its toll on the passing games, the Saints only had 15 pass attempts with just eight completions. Andy Dalton threw for just 92 yards. Chris Olave was out for this game, so besides Alvin Kamara (2-34, four targets), you likely weren’t starting a soul from this game.

Rashid Shaheed (4-41, five targets, 93% routes) led the team in every receiving category, but it’s not enough here as with up to 35-40 MPH winds, the long passes were not happening.

The snap percentages compared to some of the routes percentages were pretty hilarious as the Saints showed their hand all game long with guys like Shaheed and Adam Trautman having huge disparities which foretold their role as Trautman primarily being out on run plays while the inverse was the case for Shaheed.


Week 16 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara

Keep Them Rostered: Rashid Shaheed (deeper formats)


New York Giants

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Richie JamesWR1289008130.8%83.7%82.6%29.3%29.3%
Isaiah HodginsWR11889110138.4%95.9%97.1%26.8%23.4%1.899.20.6710.881
Saquon BarkleyRB108490-19-7.2%81.6%91.3%24.4%25.0%1.23-1.90.315-2.579
Darius SlaytonWR647908231.2%98.0%98.6%14.6%12.5%1.6513.70.4380.963
Daniel BellingerTE22270186.8%93.9%98.6%4.9%4.3%0.599.00.1211.500
Matt BreidaRB000000.0%10.2%15.9%0.0%0.0%
Nick VannettTE000000.0%4.1%7.2%0.0%0.0%
Marcus JohnsonWR000000.0%6.1%4.3%0.0%0.0%
Kenny GolladayWR000000.0%4.1%2.9%0.0%0.0%
Gary BrightwellRB000000.0%0.0%1.4%0.0%0.0%

Normally, I’m writing this Giants blurb under protest, but only five Giants receivers caught passes in Week 16, and three of them (!) earned double-digit targets! It helps when Daniel Jones can cook, with 42 pass attempts.

The Giants have been pretty condensed as far as their target tree, but if we can hang our hat on anything, it’s that Richie James (8-90, 12 targets, 84% routes) and Isaiah Hodgins (8-89-1, 11 targets, 96% routes) are going to get the bulk of the receiving opportunity. Saquon Barkley (8-49, 10 targets. 82% routes) also saw an uptick in his receiving work to build off of his Week 15. 

Daniel Bellinger (2-27, two targets) and Darius Slayton (4-79, six targets) both saw routes per dropback at 94% or higher, but paled in comparison to the top-three pass-catchers in Week 16.


Week 16 New York Giants Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Saquon Barkley

Keep Them Rostered: Darius Slayton, Daniel Jones, Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James (both Hodgins and James are low-end flex options if you need some production)


New York Jets

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Garrett WilsonWR9430010137.1%97.5%96.6%30.0%23.1%0.7711.20.7100.297
Corey DavisWR7214010739.3%100.0%96.6%23.3%17.5%0.3515.30.6250.131
Michael CarterRB55440145.1%42.5%39.0%16.7%29.4%2.592.80.2863.143
Tyler ConklinTE4434051.8%72.5%71.2%13.3%13.8%
Elijah MooreWR32150134.8%87.5%81.4%10.0%8.6%0.434.30.1831.154
C.J. UzomahTE113002910.7%35.0%50.8%3.3%7.1%2.1429.00.1251.034
Zonovan KnightRB1115031.1%20.0%40.7%3.3%12.5%1.883.00.0585.000
Ty JohnsonRB000000.0%15.0%20.3%0.0%0.0%
Kenny YeboahTE000000.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.0%

Zach Wilson stinks and it was announced that Mike White will start the rest of the season, likely ending the Jets’ career of Wilson. Wilson has been terrible and will likely find a backup role somewhere.

Thank the lord, as these pass-catchers are too good to suffer through another Wilson meltdown. At the very least, the Jets are treating Garrett Wilson (4-30, nine targets, 98% routes) as the top option here — as they should. The presumptive favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Wilson has been awesome despite some difficult circumstances.

Outside of Wilson, it’s been inefficiency plaguing players like Corey Davis (2-13, seven targets, 100% route participation) and being just barely utilized like Elijah Moore (2-15, three targets). Hopefully, White being installed back as starting quarterback can cure some of these ills.


Week 16 New York Jets Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Garrett Wilson

Keep Them Rostered: Zonovan Knight, Elijah Moore (deeper formats), Mike White (deeper formats)


Philadelphia Eagles

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
DeVonta SmithWR128113215241.9%97.6%93.0%35.3%29.3%2.7612.70.8230.743
A.J. BrownWR8610309325.6%95.2%91.5%23.5%20.0%2.5811.60.5321.108
Quez WatkinsWR511906016.5%73.8%71.8%14.7%16.1%0.6112.00.3360.317
Kenneth GainwellRB4441030.8%54.8%42.3%11.8%17.4%1.780.80.18213.667
Dallas GoedertTE336705013.8%88.1%94.4%8.8%8.1%1.8116.70.2291.340
Zach PascalWR116051.4%23.8%16.9%2.9%10.0%0.605.00.0541.200
Miles SandersRB116000.0%28.6%53.5%2.9%8.3%0.500.00.0440.000
Jack StollTE000000.0%9.5%22.5%0.0%0.0%
Grant CalcaterraTE000000.0%4.8%9.9%0.0%0.0%
Boston ScottRB000000.0%4.8%4.2%0.0%0.0%

Say what you want about Gardner Minshew, but he knows how to get the ball to the players he’s supposed to. All three of A.J. BrownDeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert (3-67, three targets, 88% routes) were the lead route-runners here and did almost all of the heavy lifting for the Eagles as they put up 34 points in a valiant losing effort.

Smith (8-113-2, 12 targets) had a monster day with Trevon Diggs following Brown (6-103, eight targets) most of the time. That’s not to say Brown didn’t have his moments:

It was good to see Goedert run a robust route percentage in his return off of IR, so start him confidently in your league semi-finals and/or championship.


Week 16 Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Jalen Hurts (if starting), A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Gardner Minshew (if Hurts is out)

Keep Them Rostered: Miles Sanders


Pittsburgh Steelers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Najee HarrisRB964201810.1%62.5%72.1%25.0%36.0%1.682.00.4462.333
Pat FreiermuthTE876603620.2%87.5%80.9%22.2%22.9%1.894.50.4751.833
Diontae JohnsonWR756407441.6%97.5%88.2%19.4%17.9%1.6410.60.5830.865
George PickensWR555714827.0%95.0%80.9%13.9%13.2%1.509.60.3971.188
Connor HeywardTE3000-1-0.6%15.0%19.1%8.3%50.0%0.00-0.30.1210.000
Jaylen WarrenRB2170-1-0.6%27.5%30.9%5.6%18.2%0.64-0.50.079-7.000
Steven SimsWR117031.7%60.0%48.5%2.8%4.2%
Zach GentryTE111010.6%25.0%42.6%2.8%10.0%
Miles BoykinWR000000.0%5.0%20.6%0.0%0.0%
Gunner OlszewskiWR000000.0%5.0%11.8%0.0%0.0%
Derek WattFB000000.0%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.0%

The Steelers only scored 13 points against the Raiders in a game that wasn’t very appetizing to anybody watching unless you were there to see Franco Harris’ number retired at halftime.

Pat Freiermuth (7-66, eight targets) led the way for the Steelers, and he must be healthy, as he jumped back up to 88% routes per dropback after returning from his foot injury to be limited in recent weeks. After last week’s goose egg, you likely weren’t trusting Freiermuth in your fantasy lineup but Week 16’s performance doesn’t exactly help matters here. I’d still lean on the side of starting him unless you have a slam-dunk option elsewhere.

As for the wide receivers, Diontae Johnson (5-64, seven targets) and George Pickens (5-57-1, five targets) were fine with Pickens coming out with the touchdown here. There are not many leagues where Johnson is getting this far into the playoffs, but even if he is on a roster, he’s not why you made it there. Both Johnson and Pickens are middling flex options for the playoff home stretch.


Week 16 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: I can’t do it anymore with the Steelers.

Keep Them Rostered: Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens


San Francisco 49ers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
George KittleTE8612026539.2%65.0%90.4%38.1%30.8%4.628.10.8461.846
Brandon AiyukWR758106841.0%62.5%115.4%33.3%28.0%
Jauan JenningsWR322103822.9%57.5%88.5%14.3%13.0%0.9112.70.3750.553
Christian McCaffreyRB2212010.6%52.5%75.0%9.5%9.5%0.570.50.14712.000
Ray-Ray McCloudWR1000-6-3.6%25.0%36.5%4.8%10.0%0.00-6.00.0460.000
Kyle JuszczykFB000000.0%27.5%42.3%0.0%0.0%
Tyler KroftTE000000.0%17.5%38.5%0.0%0.0%
Tyrion Davis-PriceRB000000.0%10.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%
Danny GrayWR000000.0%2.5%3.8%0.0%0.0%
Charlie WoernerTE000000.0%0.0%1.9%0.0%0.0%
Willie SneadWR000000.0%0.0%1.9%0.0%0.0%

The Brock Purdy train keeps rolling but with a condensed version as only four 49ers' players even caught a pass here. George Kittle (6-120-2, eight targets, 65% routes) has been on a big-time roll since Purdy’s been the quarterback and continued it in Week 16. Brandon Aiyuk (5-81, seven targets) got some sorely needed forward momentum and Christian McCaffrey (2-12, two targets; 46 rushing yards, rush TD) chipped in.

It should be a little bit easier in Week 17 against a toothless as-of-late Raiders team that is now trotting out career backup Jarrett Stidham as their quarterback for the remainder of 2022.


Week 16 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Christian McCaffreyDeebo Samuel (when healthy, could practice on Thursday), George Kittle

Keep Them Rostered: Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy (deeper formats)


Seattle Seahawks

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
DK MetcalfWR978108733.1%95.5%90.8%23.7%21.4%1.939.70.5870.931
Laquon TreadwellWR732604717.9%93.2%85.5%18.4%17.1%0.636.70.4010.553
DeeJay DallasRB66320-4-1.5%65.9%46.1%15.8%20.7%1.10-0.70.226-8.000
Colby ParkinsonTE434503714.1%36.4%40.8%10.5%25.0%2.819.30.2561.216
Marquise GoodwinWR40005520.9%63.6%51.3%10.5%14.3%0.0013.80.3040.000
Noah FantTE32121186.8%54.5%55.3%7.9%12.5%0.506.00.1660.667
Penny HartWR2120218.0%27.3%23.7%5.3%16.7%0.1710.50.1350.095
Kenneth WalkerRB22-20-6-2.3%25.0%52.6%5.3%18.2%-0.18-3.00.0630.333
Will DisslyTE1119083.0%20.5%36.8%2.6%11.1%
Dareke YoungWR000000.0%6.8%13.2%0.0%0.0%
Travis HomerRB000000.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%

With Tyler Lockett out for the Seahawks, it was easy to see DK Metcalf leading the charge for the Seahawks amongst their pass-catchers. Metcalf (7-81, nine targets) led the team in all receiving categories, while career retread Laquon Treadwell (3-26, seven targets) immediately overtook all other Seattle options and ran 93% of routes in the Lockett role.

Noah Fant (2-12-1, three targets, 55% routes) caught a garbage-time touchdown while not seeing any discernable role increase, so that’s too bad.


Week 16 Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: DK MetcalfGeno SmithKenneth Walker

Keep Them Rostered: Noah Fant (deeper formats)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Leonard FournetteRB109900-8-3.5%47.9%60.5%20.8%43.5%3.91-0.80.288-11.250
Chris GodwinWR1086303716.3%95.8%90.1%20.8%21.7%1.373.70.4271.703
Mike EvansWR832908135.7%100.0%92.6%16.7%16.7%0.6010.10.5000.358
Cade OttonTE721203214.1%83.3%84.0%14.6%17.5%0.304.60.3170.375
Russell GageWR656502711.9%62.5%53.1%12.5%20.0%
Rachaad WhiteRB44171-9-4.0%29.2%35.8%8.3%28.6%1.21-2.30.097-1.889
Julio JonesWR2150229.7%31.3%27.2%4.2%13.3%0.3311.00.1300.227
Scotty MillerWR10004519.8%6.3%4.9%2.1%33.3%0.0045.00.1700.000
Ko KieftTE000000.0%2.1%17.3%0.0%0.0%
Kyle RudolphTE000000.0%6.3%13.6%0.0%0.0%
Cameron BrateTE000000.0%10.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
Deven ThompkinsWR000000.0%2.1%4.9%0.0%0.0%
Ke'Shawn VaughnRB000000.0%2.1%2.5%0.0%0.0%

After the Christmas Day chaos settled down and families could sit and watch some good old-fashioned football, they were privy to a matchup that saw two touchdowns and a bunch of field goals. So, not EXACTLY coal… but more like getting a pair of socks instead of candy in your stocking. We’ll take it, but it’s not really what we wanted or were looking for.

More of the same from the Buccaneers in Week 16 as Tom Brady had 48 pass attempts, which seems pretty hollow at this point if the pass attempts aren’t being attached to big yardage totals, but in PPR formats, we’ll take it.

The usual suspects were at play here, with Chris Godwin (8-63, 10 targets) leading the pass-catchers in targets along with Leonard Fournette (9-90, 10 targets, 48% routes, 61% snaps), who is retaining his lead back role over Rachaad White (4-17-1, 29% routes, 36% snaps) slotting back into more of a complimentary role despite a receiving touchdown. White hasn’t really grabbed the job and run with it like we thought he would. Turns out that Fournette at this stage is just a better (albeit plodding) stat compiler!


Week 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Chris GodwinMike Evans, Leonard Fournette

Keep Them Rostered: Rachaad White, Tom Brady


Tennessee Titans

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Robert WoodsWR443002023.0%96.4%95.1%20.0%14.8%
Austin HooperTE422002427.6%64.3%49.2%20.0%22.2%
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR322302124.1%75.0%75.4%15.0%14.3%
Hassan HaskinsRB221701213.8%39.3%24.6%10.0%18.2%1.556.00.2471.417
Chigoziem OkonkwoTE21100910.3%39.3%45.9%10.0%18.2%0.914.50.2221.111
Derrick HenryRB2200-1-1.1%46.4%73.8%10.0%15.4%0.00-0.50.1420.000
Treylon BurksWR200066.9%89.3%82.0%10.0%8.0%
Geoff SwaimTE11-10-4-4.6%10.7%39.3%5.0%33.3%-0.33-4.00.0430.250
Chris ConleyWR000000.0%10.7%8.2%0.0%0.0%
Kevin RaderTE000000.0%0.0%6.6%0.0%0.0%

The Titans were upset by the Texans, but you’re more upset if you started any Titans that weren’t named Derrick Henry.

And that’s the story of rostering a Titans pass-catcher. They run routes but especially with Malik Willis at quarterback, there’s little efficiency and volume. Robert Woods (4-30, four targets, 96% routes) and Treylon Burks (two targets, 89% routes) ran the most routes for the Titans, but it doesn’t matter if production doesn’t follow. And now, the Titans announced they’ll start Josh Dobbs. Yikes.

Add to the fact that Tennessee won’t have Henry, who is listed as doubtful in Week 17, and it’s a recipe for disaster against the Cowboys.


Week 16 Tennessee Titans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: With Derrick Henry doubtful for Week 17, there’s nobody you’re confidently starting here.

Keep Them Rostered: Hassan Haskins? Maybe in deeper formats? In THIS economy?

It’s gross, but he’s a bottom-of-the-barrel RB2 option if you’re desperate.


Washington Commanders

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Jahan DotsonWR9676111436.1%97.2%100.0%26.5%25.7%2.1712.70.6500.667
Logan ThomasTE863505417.1%88.9%82.5%23.5%25.0%
Terry McLaurinWR5477110934.5%94.4%107.9%14.7%14.7%2.2621.80.4620.706
Curtis SamuelWR55521288.9%83.3%76.2%14.7%16.7%1.735.60.2831.857
Jonathan WilliamsRB32280-2-0.6%30.6%31.7%8.8%27.3%2.55-0.70.128-14.000
Antonio GibsonRB32210103.2%36.1%33.3%8.8%23.1%1.623.30.1552.100
Brian RobinsonRB100030.9%16.7%50.8%2.9%16.7%
John BatesTE000000.0%2.8%42.9%0.0%0.0%
Cole TurnerTE000000.0%0.0%33.3%0.0%0.0%
Dyami BrownWR000000.0%2.8%11.1%0.0%0.0%
Cam SimsWR000000.0%5.6%7.9%0.0%0.0%
Dax MilneWR000000.0%2.8%1.6%0.0%0.0%

Taylor Heinicke was benched in Week 16, leading the way for old friend Carson Wentz to resume his gunslinging ways to little success as the 49ers won by three scores.

Wentz threw 16 fourth-quarter passes and linked back up with Curtis Samuel (5-52-1, five targets, 83% routes) for a touchdown. In fact, all three of the top wide receivers caught touchdowns in this one as Heinicke tossed one each to Jahan Dotson (6-76-1, team-high nine targets) and Terry McLaurin (4-77-1, five targets, 94% routes).

With Wentz back at starting quarterback, it dials back a little bit of the McLaurin love Heinicke had and should spread some of the fun back to Samuel’s way. Let’s not get crazy — Samuel is merely a deep flex option in fantasy championships, but he’s at least in play. Dotson is firmly in play as he’s caught touchdowns the last three weeks and has been no worse than WR18 in that stretch. He’s been a low-key league winner during this fantasy playoff run.


Week 16 Washington Commanders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson

Keep Them Rostered: Brian RobinsonAntonio Gibson, Curtis Samuel (deeper formats but a passable option as your last flex if you’re needing some production)

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