Hopefully you’ve been sticking with us all season - not just because we’ve been cashing MLB home run picks, but also because we warned fans yesterday that we have just five games on the board tonight. It also doesn’t hurt that Max Muncy’s HR last night made it another three-day streak! The league recognizes that the NFL starts taking over Thursdays, and it’s already the normal transition day into the weekend series. However, don’t worry - we’ll always take the time to break down the slate so that you have the best options for MLB home run predictions day in and day out!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Even though the options for top MLB home run picks may be fewer today, our MLB expert picks will help you enjoy even more of the slate with other player props and game markets. Of course, you can swap to the NFL section to get some TNF picks as well! That said, if you’re still focused on MLB home run predictions for now, you can find even more guys to target with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/10: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Even though there are just a handful (literally) of games on the diamond today, that doesn’t mean we cut corners when ensuring that you get the best MLB home run picks. Therefore, it is absolutely still important to check out our MLB weather report. After doing so, we can dive into the starters on the mound.

We’ve got the full spectrum of Zack Wheeler/Jacob deGrom to Ryan Feltner and a White Sox bullpen game, and we uncover the full spectrum of metrics from slugging allowed to expected ISO and more. The hitters taking them on have plenty to consider as well, such as barrel rates, hard-hit rates, and average exit velocities. 

You already know that we consider everything to keep cashing MLB home run picks, so let’s fully break down our top three targets!

Ben Rice (+270)

We led off with Ben Rice last night, and we’re right back to Rockies vs. Yankees. When it comes to the Colorado pitching staff - starters AND the bullpen - it’s always fun to target them. You can absolutely roll with Rice again, but with Ryan Feltner on the mound, we fully expect multiple New York hitters to come through with MLB home run picks (just like last night).

Although the one metric he has that isn’t awful is his average exit velocity allowed, he still allows hitters to barrel his pitches far too often. That’s why both righties and lefties have a slugging percentage better than .500 against him, and after the OTHER lefties we pivoted from last night went yard, you already know it’s happening - let’s lead again off our best MLB home run picks for today with Ben Rice hitting a HR (27%, so +270, at Novig). 

Bryce Harper (+340)

When we see Astros vs. Phillies on deck, we’re instantly thinking Yordan Alvarez vs. Kyle Schwarber. Those are two lefty bats that are always a threat to lead all of baseball in homers, but who do we target with Cristian Javier vs. Zack Wheeler on the mound? The obvious choice for MLB home run picks is the former, but they’re both live to target.

We’ve seen Wheeler tail off since his hot streak, but still, it’s Javier that just hasn’t been himself after missing nearly three full months. He’s allowed six homers across his last six starts, and it’s lefties who have been putting the power on display - that’s scary vs. Philly. Southpaws are crushing him to the tune of a .240 ISO!

Therefore, this is the perfect spot for his drought to end; we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Bryce Harper hitting a HR (+340 at bet365). 

Spencer Jones (+350)

That’s right - back to the Bronx Bombers. With just five games on the slate, it’s simply the best approach whether it’s as “fun” to do or not. Thankfully, all the same applies as it did for Rice, and although Jones also didn’t hit one last night, he’s made a name for himself in a hurry. He’s done so by cashing MLB home run picks.

The 6-foot-7 outfielder has done his best Aaron Judge impression with an average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, bat speed, AND sweet-spot percentage that would all be 98th percentile or better if he qualified. The ball actually going over the yard doesn’t care if you have enough ABs or not, so with the matchup at Yankee Stadium as a southpaw, it’s a no-brainer to add to our top MLB home run picks today with Spencer Jones hitting a HR (+350 at BetMGM). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Naturally, we mentioned George Lombard here yesterday, who went yard since we pivoted to a Colorado Rockies hitter instead. Let’s fix that and hit today’s longshot, our best MLB home run picks…

This one is nice and simple - it just shouldn’t be at this price, even if Zack Wheeler is on the mound. He’s been Houston’s biggest threat besides Yordan Alvarez by a mile and has 17 HRs this season. That alone is rare for an MLB home run longshot pick, so the Astros SS is our top option today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Of all the guys to let us down in last night’s parlay, it was Shohei Ohtani, but since the other two hit, that leg should have just pushed since he didn’t play! Either way, Max Muncy cashed one of our top three plays anyway! So, let’s get more big names in today’s MLB home run picks…

Remember, while it’s a small slate, it tees off early! So, don’t waste any time making the most of our best MLB home run predictions for today!