Yesterday was another profitable day for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets, with over 1.7 units gained. It could have been double that if Bam Adebayo could have earned two more rebounds. 

The games on TNT, Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets, were arguably some of the best games of the season. Although Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers was the most entertaining of the night, particularly rooting against Rudy Gobert’s rebounds in those last six minutes. It was a wonderful day of basketball but today could be better.

 

There are eight games today, two of which will be on national television via ESPN. However, Fantasy Alarm looks away from the primetime games and has an almost exclusive Eastern Conference focus on NBA best bets today. 

The Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards tip-off at 7:00 PM and a new face makes an appearance. The Miami Heat are playing the Oklahoma City Thunder in back-to-back games and this column takes advantage of a player prop because of it. 

The Bet of the Night features a player mentioned only once or twice this year but deserves recognition. Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks in my favorite of all NBA best bets today.

Expert NBA Best Bet & Pick Today, 3/8

Paolo Banchero Player Props: Over 27.5 Points + Assists (-115 on DraftKings)

Paolo Banchero has quietly led the Orlando Magic to fourth place in the Eastern Conference. The Magic currently sit 0.5 games ahead of the New York Knicks and they play against each other tonight. Madison Square Garden is an electrifying place, and opposing teams seem to bring extra juice when they play there. 

The Magic have the longest winning streak in the Association, and the only top eight Eastern Conference team to not lose their last game. The Magic are quietly sneaking up the rankings, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they are the second seed of the Eastern Conference playoffs. 

Banchero averages 22.9 points and 5.2 assists per game this season, and simply needs to maintain his average to ensure this bet cashes. As tempting as it is to include the rebounds, especially on a forward, the Knicks allow more points and assists than rebounds to opposing forwards. The Magic and Knicks allow the fewest rebounds to opposing teams; Orlando allowing 48.4 and New York allowing 48.7. 

Banchero has covered this line in three of his four games since a two-game absence due to an illness. He has played over thirty-two minutes in all four games and is the leader of the Magic. With only 0.5 games separating these two teams, he will need to score often and early. 

By doing so he could pull more double teams, or at least have the attention of other defenders, and have a high assist count. He had ten assists in his last game and a combined twenty-four in his previous four games. The Knicks are banged up and Banchero is in a groove, put the unit on him tonight.

 

NBA Prop Bets for Today, 3/8

Nick Richards Player Props: Under 9.5 Rebounds (-120 on BetMGM)

This column has made several units betting against the Washington Wizards, specifically the opposing center to cover his rebounding line. Tonight, the Charlotte Hornets play the Washington Wizards, and we are taking the opposing centers under. Nick Richards is the starting center for the Charlotte Hornets, and his rebounding line is set a 9.5. For the first time this season we are taking the under, and here is why.

Richards has not had ten rebounds in four straight games, and since the addition of Grant Williams his numbers have gone down. Richards’ season average is 7.9 and an additional two more have been added for this bet. 

The logic makes sense given the opponent, but Richards is not reliable. He has played less than thirty minutes in ten of his last eleven games, and truthfully the Hornets could be looking to secure a high lottery pick. Richards has the highest rebounding line of any player tonight, and it seems like a trap to take the over with better odds.

This is a match against teams with the longest losing streak in the Association. Charlotte is on a five-game losing streak and Washington is on a sixteen-game losing streak. Charlotte has six more wins, but maybe Washington feels like they can win one tonight and actually give the home crowd their money’s worth. The Wizards are favorites by two points. Trust the under for Richards tonight.

 

Bam Adebayo Player Props: Under 10.5 Rebounds (-110 on FanDuel)

Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets took the over on Bam Adebayo yesterday against Dallas and it did not cash out. Tonight, the Miami Heat play against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Thunder allow the fifth most rebounds to opposing teams with 53.9 per game. 

That is only .02 better than Dallas, but Oklahoma is rested and cannot let up as they are only 0.5 games behind first and 0.5 games ahead of third in the Western Conference. They have had a day’s rest, and the Heat played a tough and long game last night against Dallas. Bam played over thirty-seven minutes and will have to play against Chet Holmgren who is four inches taller, and Josh Giddy who is the same height. 

Rebounds could be tough to come by tonight for the Miami Heat. B. Adebayo has not covered this prop in seven straight games and will have a tough time doing so tonight. Look for the under to cash tonight.

 

NBA Parlay Today, 3/8

MOOSE Parlay: Cavs ML + Magic vs. Knicks Over 200.5 + Hawks -2 (+445 on DraftKings)

*Placed With Bonus Bet: $15 3's Made Last Night in Celtics vs. Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. did make the first points of the game yesterday, it just was not a three-point attempt. C'est la vie. What is really remarkable was both teams' three-point percentage. Boston went 11/38 (28.9%) and Denver 4/21 (19%). Denver won the game by six points with only making four threes in the game – look out, Western Conference. 

So, we did not get a full return on the $25 ticket, but we did get something back. It allows me to introduce a betting concept I recommend to all beginners– the M.O.O.S.E AND M.O.U.S.E.. It is composed of combining a MOneyline, Over or Under, and a SprEad bet. The goal being to place the minimum required by a sportsbook and track your bets. After fifty MOOSE/MOUSE wagers look at the data and reveal which you had the most success with. Start focusing more on the bets you experienced the most success with.

Today is a MOOSE bet. 

Money line: Cleveland to win against a tired Minnesota team after an emotional victory yesterday. 

Over: A teased down total on what is already the lowest total of the day. Orlando and New York to score over 200.5 points.

Spread: Atlanta to cover a small -2 spread as they look to beat Memphis, who have only won seven home games this season.

The MOOSE comes in at +445 and a ‘free’ $15.00 ticket returns $66.77. Of course, you are always allowed to put your full unit on the bet if you feel so inclined. Convert the earnings into your unit gained as the MOOSE is Loose!

 

Thanks for reading. Besides my NBA best bets today, remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise