Three out of four successful bets yesterday, and the units keep stacking. With eight games today, the goal is to keep winning and finish out a successful fourth week of NBA betting. Five teams are playing back-to-back games, they are; Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, and Sacramento Kings. This causes hesitation on proposition bets, although some are tempting. The reason is that it is still too early in the season to accurately predict how many minutes some superstars will be limited to. There is not a nationally televised game tonight, as the NBA yields to a Superbowl rematch on Monday Night Football.
There are two Fantasy Alarm Best Bets today. Including the best matchup of the night, the New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves, which begins at 8:00 PM ET. The other features a player prop in the Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards game with a 7:00 PM ET tip-off. There are several high spreads on the books tonight, which could mean several blowouts. Caution is advised in large spread games (of which there are several), and teams with back-to-back road games.
Bet of the Night
Daniel Gafford OVER 6.5 Rebounds (+100 at BetMGM)
Daniel Gafford is not well known outside of Washington Wizard fans and fantasy basketball players. He is the starting center for the Wizards, who are a dismal 2-10 on the season. From a fantasy basketball perspective, he has been playable and consistent with his performance. This season Gafford has gone over 6.5 rebounds in every game he has played more than twenty minutes. He is the leading rebounder of the Wizards, despite missing two games, with 72. He is their force around the rim and could be the quiet cornerstone piece the Wizards are seeking.
In addition to his stats, the Wizards are playing the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Bucks are allowing 53.1 rebounds per game, the 11th most in the Association. Although Giannis Antetokounmpo is a rebounding machine, he is technically their power forward. Brook Lopez, a great scoring center, spends more time outside of the paint than he does in it. This should allow Gafford to get easier defensive rebounds, the key stat to a rebounding prop bet. This bet will likely take until the fourth quarter to hit, but D. Gafford has been a reliable bet on this line, as they have not moved from it despite his average of 7.2 per game.
Straight Bet of the Night
Minnesota Timberwolves Money Line (-135 at DraftKings)
It is difficult to be accepted as a winner when you are part of a franchise that has never experienced being the ultimate winner. The bookies are not an exception to this belief. As someone who covered a franchise that won their first Larry O’Brien Trophy last year, it takes winning to keep the money (and opinions) positive for a losing franchise. Enter the Minnesota Timberwolves who have been the NBA punching bag for decades. Their own fans ridicule and have pessimistic views about them this season. They are in first place in the Western Conference!
The Timberwolves are 9-3, first in their In-Season Tournament group, and 5-0 at home. The season may be young, but this group displayed signs of what was coming at the end of last season. They gave the champion Denver Nuggets one of their four losses in the playoffs last year, gave Denver one of their four losses this year, have arguably the best big three combinations in the league, and are still being given generous odds in their matchups. The New York Knicks are 8-5 and on a three-game winning streak, but those wins were not against the level of competition they are going to see tonight. The Timberwolves are rested, at home, and are close to even odds. Trust them to deliver the win at home, and if you are feeling nervous at some point, cashing out is always an option.
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Thank you for reading.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise