Happy New Year everyone! Last week was the week of Meat Loaf and it ended the first two full months of NBA bets at +8.68 units, but it is a new day, it’s a new year, and the second of the ‘three phases’ of the NBA is in full effect. Opening day to Christmas is phase one, Christmas to the All-Star game is phase two, and All-Star to the end of the season is phase three. Phase two will have several teams in back-to-back games and several players either getting injured or being rested. Be mindful of this when betting, but Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets tracks daily injuries and back-to-backs prior to giving advice for bets. 

Today there are eight games today, only one of which is televised, Minnesota vs New York Knicks, on NBATV with a 3:00 PM ET tip-off. There is a prop bet featured as the Knicks host the Western Conference leaders in another holiday game at Madison Square Garden. There is also a plus money prop in the Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets match, as the Pistons look to continue their ‘winning ways’. Tonight’s best bet is a same-game parlay on a rematch of the Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks and the infamous ‘stolen ball’ game… And it does feature Giannas Antetokounmpo.

 

NBA Bet of the Night

Same Game Parlay: Milwaukee Nucks Money Line & Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 37.5 Points (+152 at DraftKings)

The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers are playing their third game in less than a month, and it is the first of back-to-back games against each other. Giannis Antetokounmpo has destroyed the Indiana Pacers over his career averaging 24.0 points, but in his last ten games is averaging 36.2. In his last game against the Pacers, he scored a career and franchise record sixty-four points, this is the same franchise that drafted a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The ball was taken by the Pacers staff after the game causing Giannis to act in a way he has never displayed, and it created drama between teams that are already rivals in the Central Division. 

The Pacers are allowing the second most points per game to opposing teams, 124.8, they give up more on the road 128.8, and they simply don’t have an answer for Antetokounmpo. This same game parlay has been teased up on the point line because the Bucks do not play defense either. Milwaukee allows the seventh most points per game with 118.9. This will be a back-and-forth tennis-like match and that favors this bet. These two have combined for an outstanding 513 points in their last two games against each other. Tease up Giannis’ point line and parlay it with the money line for a nice return.

NBA Prop Bets

Jalen Duren Over 12.5 Rebounds (+100 at BetMGM)

Jalen Duren’s return to the Detroit Pistons lineup is making the team competitive again. The last article of 2023 stated that the Pistons could win that game and that Duren’s rebound line was criminally low. Both were true, and the sportsbooks have adjusted his line aggressively moving it up one and chalking the under heavily. Duren has covered this line in all three games since returning from action and although the Houston Rockets only allowed 37 rebounds in their previous game, they are still allowing 53 rebounds to opposing teams. That is the sixth worst in the Association. 

The Pistons have to be feeling better after ending the losing streak and playing against a streaky team, the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are streaky but do play good defense, this should benefit Duren in this bet as he has averaged five offensive rebounds per game since returning, in addition to his 10.3 defensive rebound average in that span. Alperen Sengun is the starting center for the Houston Rockets and as a center spends more time outside of the paint than normal. This should allow the 6’ 10” Duren to control more defensive rebounds. When an NBA prop bet is hot, you ride it until it is not, for like Jerry Reed once famously said, ‘When you’re hot you're hot, and when you’re not, you’re not’.

Rudy Gobert OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-130 at BetMGM)

Rudy Gobert is having another elite year and is amongst the leading candidates to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. The Timberwolves take their number one ranked defense into Madison Square Garden against the New York Knicks. A large part of the reason the Timberwolves are allowing the fewest points per game, 107.4, is Rudy Gobert. The New York Knicks are having difficulty in the frontcourt defense since the loss of Mitchell Robinson. They recently traded for OG Anunoby to help, but it will take time for him to get in rhythm with Julius Randle and Isaiah Hartenstein. 

Gobert should have more defensive rebounds than normal as the New York Knicks offense goes through Jalen Brunson. He is an excellent scorer but relies heavily on going into the lane to get points. Brunson is 6’ 2” and Rudy Gobert is one of the best defenders of this century. This should disrupt Brunson’s shots, and the Timberwolves allow the second-fewest points to opposing point guards. R. Gobert is going to bring down Brunson’s 47.2% on field goal makes and earn rebounds off of those misses. He is also the fourth-leading rebounder in the Association, averaging 12.0 per game. He should earn his average against a sub-par frontcourt of the Knicks.

Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your NBA and sports needs. Including stats, injury updates, daily fantasy sports advice, season-long fantasy advice, and the DFS Show with Jon and James.

 

Thank you for reading.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise