Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Thursday, July 30th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some elite pitchers in Nolan McLean, Eury Perez, and Sonny Gray all taking the mound. It's also a Sutter Health Field and Great American Ballpark slate. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 6-Games | Lock Time: 7:10 pm ET, Thursday, July 30th, 2026

Vegas Totals: PIT/CIN (highest-projected game), BOS/ATH & WAS/ATL (tied second-highest game total), SEA/LAD (third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Nolan McLean 6.5 O/U (+100), Eury Perez 5.5 O/U (-136), Roki Sasaki 5.5 O/U (-108), Bryan Woo 5.5 O/U (+123), Sonny Gray 4.5 O/U (-133)

MLB Weather Today, 7/30

Marlins vs Mets - There's a small chance at a delay but nothing that's overly concerned.

Red Sox vs Athletics - It's 90 degrees and there are winds blowing out as well. That's really good for offense.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Nolan McLean (NYM)

Analysis: This is the slate's best pitcher by a wide margin but it's not the easiest matchup. The Marlins are a 104 wRC+ offense against right-handed pitching and they don't strike out a lot. That being said, McLean has at least six innings in seven consecutive starts and has 18+ DKP in six straight.

Eury Perez (MIA)

Analysis: The Mets are 27th in OPS and 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and here lies a very tall, hard throwing right-handed pitcher in Eury Perez. Perez has pitched really well since coming off the IL pitching to a 1.75 ERA with a 25.4% K-rate across 36 innings (6 starts). Perez has as high of a ceiling as anyone on the board.

Sonny Gray (BOS)

Analysis: I think the best low-owned play of the day is Sonny Gray. The park isn't great and that's the scary part, but the Athletics are likely without Kurtz tonight and are already without Langeliers. Outside of his last start, Sonny Gray has been fantastic for two months. He hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in any start since April 14th before last outing. The A's are league average vs. RHP with a 101 wRC+ and the ballpark is less than ideal but Gray is getting a LOT of groundballs as the 48% mark is he highest mark since 2020.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Roki Sasaki (LAD)

Analysis: Mr. Inconsistent is getting ownership and a lot of it. Any time inconsistent pitchers get a lot of ownership you don't HAVE to play them. The problem is the spot is really good and there aren't many good options on the board. Sasaki has 19+ DKP in two straight starts and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in three straight. Has a home run problem in Dodger Stadium.

JP Sears (SD)

Analysis: It's slim pickings, y'all. We're suggesting JP Sears because of that. He's pitched well enough to be dominated as he's notched 13+ DKP in three of  four and four of six overall. He's not pitching deep into games not throwing a lot of pitches, but it's a plus matchup. The Giants have a 93 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Nolan McLean: 28.6% K% (10.7 K/9)

Eury Perez: 26.6% K% (9.7 K/9)

Bryan Woo: 24% K% (8.9 K/9) 

Roki Sasaki: 23.6% K% (9 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

James Wood (OF, WAS) & CJ Abrams (SS, WAS)

Analysis: This is a great spot for Wood and Abrams to put up crooked numbers. Grant Holmes has struggled under the hood allowing a .190 xISO and .346 xwOBA to LHH and two of the best in the world are these two. Both of these two have ISOs north of .300 this year and .420+ wOBAs to boot.

Elly De La Cruz (SS, CIN)

Analysis: Super high upside player with super high ceiling in great ballpark. He'll face the righty to start and the Pirates will likely deploy a lefty for some bulk innings.

Drake Baldwin (C, ATL) & Matt Olson (1B, ATL)

Analysis: There's a lot to like about the Braves offense here as Jake Irvin makes his return to the mound for the first time since May. He isn't fully built up, which means more Nats bullpen. Irvin's not good to begin with, but the Nats 5.03 bullpen ERA is third worst in the league and their 4.99 xERA is THE worst. Baldwin, Olson, and everyone else is ELITE at the dish today.

Brandon Lowe (2B, PIT) & Bryan Reynolds (OF, PIT)

Analysis: Lefties have absolutely owned Rhett Lowder this year to the tune of a .202 ISO, .250 xISO, .371 wOBA, and .391 xwOBA. Lowe has a .276 ISO against righties and Reynolds has a .180 ISO against them as well.

Willson Contreras (1B, BOS) 

Analysis: We talk about this a lot, but you need to have a goldfish memory in DFS. The Red Sox have the highest implied total on the board and just because Contreras hasn't paid off his price tag yet this series doesn't mean he won't in this one. Contreras has a .240 ISO and .393 wOBA against righties this year.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Caleb Durbin (3B, BOS)

Analysis: Since June 1st, basically when he turned his season around, Durbin has a .500 SLG%, .868 OPS, .203 ISO against right-handed pitching. Righties have a .181 xISO and .326 xwOBA against Mason Barnett.

Jake Mangum (OF, PIT) & Jacob Gonzalez (1B/SS, PIT)

Analysis: On the year, Mangum is hitting .302 with a .348 OBP and has swiped 16 bases against righties this season. Now you're putting him in the small ballpark. Gonzalez hasn't been the biggest bopper, but he has some power, good eligibility, and is in an elite matchup/ballpark.

JJ Bleday (OF, CIN) & Tyler Stephenson (C, CIN)

Analysis: I like the correlation with Bleday and Stephenson hitting 3-4 in the lineup. Both have been good against righties, Stephenson's been especially unlucky. Bleday has a .246 ISO this year and Stephen has a .173 ISO but .232 xISO.

Dominic Canzone (OF, SEA) & Cole Young (2B, SEA)

Analysis: I like Roki Sasaki but he does allow a lot of home runs and Canzone and Young have pop and are very cheap. Lefties have posted a .197 ISO against Sasaki. Canzone has a .251 ISO and 14 HR while Young has a .167 ISO, .330 wOBA, and should lead off.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Boston Red Sox vs Mason Barnett (ATH RHP)

Targets: Willson Contreras, Caleb Durbin, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida

Primary Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Rhett Lowder (CIN RHP)

Targets: Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Gonzalez, Endy Rodriguez

Primary Stack: Atlanta Braves vs Jake Irvin (WAS RHP)

Targets: Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuna, Michael Harris, Dominic Smith, Ozzie Albies

“Contrarian” Stack: Washington Nationals vs Grant Holmes (ATL RHP)

Targets: James Wood, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr., Dylan Crews, Daylen Lile, Keibert Ruiz

"Contrarian" Stack: Seattle Mariners vs Roki Sasaki (LAD RHP)

Targets: Dominic Canzone, Cole Young, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Josh Naylor

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Sasaki (SP, chalk)Gray (SP, lower owned)Gray's a really good pitcher at a cheap price point w/ no ownership because of the ballpark. He keeps the ball on the ground.
Red Sox (Chalk)Pirates (pivot stack)Lineup with a LOT of LHH against a pitcher in Rhett Lowder who struggles with LHH. And in Cincy.
Abreu + Rafaela (chalk)Reynolds + O'Hearn (lower owned)I love low-owned Pirates today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Nolan McLean (SP1)
  2. Sonny Gray (SP2)
  3. Willson Contreras (Core Bat)
  4. Brandon Lowe (Core Bat)
  5. Drake Baldwin (Core Bat) 
  6. Jake Mangum (Core Value Bat)
  7. Caleb Durbin (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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