Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Friday, July 7th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some elite pitchers in Logan Gilbert, Drew Rasmussen, Payton Tolle, and Nathan Eovaldi all taking the mound. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 12-Games | Lock Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, July 7th, 2026

Vegas Totals: CHC/KC (highest-projected game), LAD/ARI (second-highest game total), DET/SF, HOU/SD, COL/STL, LAA/MIA & ATH/BOS (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Nathan Eovaldi 7.5 O/U (+120), Payton Tolle 6.5 O/U (-127), Logan Gilbert 6.5 O/U (+119), Parker Messick 5.5 O/U (-151)

MLB Weather Today, 8/7

Braves vs Yankees - There's a very strong possibility that a delay happens and there is even risk for a PPD to boot. Most worrisome game on the slate.

Guardians vs White Sox - There could absolutely be a delay in this one, but there is nothing guaranteeing that. We'll see how things look later.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Drew Rasmussen (TB)

Analysis: We have a two month, 1300 at-bat sample and Seattle has been the worst rated offense in the league vs. RHP. 85 wRC+ and .633 OPS are the lowest in baseball over that span. Rasmussen has 30+ DKP in two straight and has been one of the best pitchers in the league. He has a 2.9 ERA and his 26.5% K-rate is second on the slate.

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)

Analysis: The best strikeout odds on the slate reside with Nathan Eovaldi as DK Sportsbook is registering him at a 7.5 O/U. It makes sense as to why because over a two month span, Baltimore has struck out at a 24.9% rate vs. RHP, the fourth-highest in baseball. They also only have a 92 wRC+ against righties during that span. His numbers under the hood are way better than they are on the surface.

Payton Tolle (BOS)

Analysis: The Athletics haven't actually been awful over the past two months against left-handed pitching but there's nothing special here either. They're a 101 wRC+ vs. LHP (786 PAs) but have a 23.8% K-rate. Tolle is -118 to get a WIN per DK and is -127 to go OVER 6.5 strikeouts. They're expecting a big fantasy output.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Shane Drohan (MIL)

Analysis: The Twins have a lot of lefties that hit righties but they don't hit left-handed pitchers well. Over the last two months, they have an 84 wRC+ against southpaws and a 22.7% K-rate. Even though his numbers as an SP aren't as good as they are as an RP, Drohan has a 23.7% K-rate, 3.86 xFIP, and has continuously pitched deep into games.

Kevin Gausman (TOR)

Analysis: It's rare you see a pitcher -130 to outright win the game but that's what we have here with Gausman in his Cubs debut. It's a fantastic spot against a bottom-10 Royals offense. This is one of the biggest upgrades in defense you'll find with the Cubs being the best in the game and Gausman's 4.38 ERA should play more like his 3.85 SIERA and 3.82 xFIP.

Roki Sasaki (LAD)

Analysis: Roki Sasaki is a polarizing pitcher that's really up and down. The stuff is undeniably elite but harnessing it is the issue. Sasaki has generated a 14.1% SwStr% or higher in four straight starts and has been up over 17% in three. When he's missing bats he has double-digit strikeout upside and when he's not, he might not make it out of the second inning. That's the definition of a good GPP play. He's getting no ownership either.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Logan Gllbert: 26.6% K% (9.4 K/9)

Drew Rasmussen: 26.5% K% (9.4 K/9)

Payton Tolle: 26.5% K% (9.8 K/9)

Nathan Eovaldi: 25.4% K% (9.5 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

• Kevin Gausman -130
• Payton Tolle -118
• Parker Messick +106
• Roki Sasaki +114
• Shane Drohan +119
• Kyle Leahy +143

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD) & Max Muncy (3B, LAD)

Analysis: Lefties have crushed Merrill Kelly all year long to the tune of a .248 ISO, .278 xISO, .378 wOBA, and .414 xwOBA. Ohtani and Muncy, both hitting from the left side, have .236+ ISOs and .362+ wOBAs against right-handed hurlers this year.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) & Alex Bregman (3B, CHC)

Analysis: It's possible that the Cubs stack rivals the Dodgers today and PCA and Bregman are two of the primary reasons why. PCA needs no introduction, but Bregman has turned it up the dial since the All-Star break. He has posted a .500 SLG%, .849 OPS, and .368 wOBA.

Jose Ramirez (3B, CLE)

Analysis: Noah Schultz has been a mess allowing both splits to have success but righties have been better. Jose Ramirez has once again been elite against lefties this year posting a .239 ISO and .382 wOBA against them.

Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS) & Willson Contreras (1B, BOS)

Analysis: Boston are huge home favorites and their 5.3 implied runs today are tied for second behind the Dodgers. We don't know if Willson Contreras will return from his illness today, but he's mashed righties and Perkins has been reverse splits and Wilyer Abreu is arguably the hottest hitter on the planet right now.

Jake Bauers (1B/OF, MIL)

Analysis: The Twins decided to recall Zebby Matthews to take Joe Ryan's spot in the rotation and that's great for Jake Bauers if he's back in the lineup. He's absolutely bullied right-handed hurlers with a .238 ISO, .241 xISO, .389 wOBA, and 17 HR.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Jo Adell (OF, CLE)

Analysis: We should expect Jo Adell to hit somewhere near the top of the Guardians lineup vs. LHP with the numbers he's put up thus far. Super elite against left-handed hurlers posting a .268 ISO, .294 xISO, .389 wOBA, .396 xwOBA, and 10 HR.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, TEX)

Analysis: Brandon Nimmo is really good and the numbers under-the-hood are even better than the surface level stuff. It's a good matchup here and the price is fantastic for a guy with a .200+ xISO and .380 xwOBA vs. RHP.

Caleb Durbin (3B, BOS) & Nick Sogard (2B, BOS)

Analysis: Durbin's been insane at the dish lately slashing .378/.477/.541 over his last 10 games and has really been great for two months now. Sogard continues to lead off and is free across the industry while posting a .351 wOBA vs. RHP.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, LAD)

Analysis: If you're looking for some cheap-ish exposure to the best stack of the day, Teoscar Hernandez is the best source of that. Hernandez has had a decent stretch lately hitting .314 with a .600 SLG%, and 3 HR over his last 10. He does have a .174 xISO vs. RHP this year.

Colt Keith (3B, DET)

Analysis: Keith is in the midst of a heater slashing .467/.529/700 with five extra-base hits and seven RBI over his last 10 games. He gets JT Brubaker to start, followed by Adrian Houser and the Giants bullpen. Sign me up at this price.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Merrill Kelly (ARI RHP)

Why: Lefties have a .248 ISO, .278 xISO, .378 wOBA, and .414 xwOBA against Merrill Kelly this year and right-handed numbers have come around too. Righties have a .177 ISO, .220 xISO, .344 wOBA, and .375 xwOBA against Kelly too.

Targets: Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman, Ben Rortvedt/Hunter Feduccia, Kyle Tucker

Primary Stack: Chicago Cubs vs Daniel Lynch (KC LHP)

Why: It's hard to look past what the Cubs are going to face in a top-five park for offense this year. The Royals are going to start Daniel Lynch, failed starter turned bullpen arm. Lynch hasn't thrown more than 2 IP in any game this year and they have the second-worst (5.37) bullpen ERA in baseball and allow the most HR/9 (1.51). I'll take the over 5.3 implied runs.

Targets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson

Primary Stack: Boston Red Sox vs Jack Perkins (BOS RHP)

Why: The Red Sox face off against Jack Perkins as the hottest team in baseball winning 31 of their last 36 games. Perkins has struggles against both splits (.208 ISO, .350 wOBA vs. RHH, .174 ISO, .334 wOBA vs. LHH). The Athletics have the worst bullpen ERA once Perkins is removed from the game and have allowed the second-most home runs per nine.

Targets: Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Caleb Durbin, Nick Sogard, Andruw Monasterio, Ceddane Rafaela

“Contrarian” Stack: Detroit Tigers vs JT Brubaker/Adrian Houser (SF RHP)

Why: It's a big ballpark downgrade for sure, but there has been no team better over the last two months vs. RHP than the Tigers. They're appealing from a price perspective and have so many appealing pieces to use. Brubaker has had struggles against both splits while lefties destroy Adrian Houser (.264 ISO, .401 wOBA).

Targets: Colt Keith, Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Max Clark, Spencer Torkelson

“Contrarian” Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs Zebby Matthews (MIN RHP)

Why: The reason Zebby Matthews was sent down in the first place is because he serves up far too many home runs and just hasn't put it together at the major league level. He has allowed 1.8 HR/9 and both splits have a .200+ ISO against him. Home runs win you tournaments and the Brewers could hit them in bunches here.

Targets: Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Cooper Pratt, Christian Yelich

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

1. Payton Tolle (SP1)
2. Shane Drohan (SP2)
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong (Core Bat)
4. Max Muncy (Core Bat)
5. Alex Bregman (Core Bat) 
6. Jo Adell (Core Value Bat)
7. Caleb Durbin (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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