Don’t look now, but it’s already time to make some Friday night fireworks with our MLB home run picks! After enjoying an Isaac Paredes homer AND our longshot at +800 alongside Thursday Night Football last night, it’s time to go back-to-back once again. There are no afternoon games on the slate, so it’s going to be a jam-packed evening, and that’s just fine by us. We’ve broken everything down from Tampa vs. Philly to two late LA games, so let’s enjoy some MLB home run predictions for tonight!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

This is the final weekend of regular-season action, so make sure that you make the most of it with more than just our top MLB home run picks; check out our MLB expert picks. We’ll admit that it can be tricky right now with varying motivations, but our experts have done the research for you. However, if that extra variable has you wanting to just stick with more MLB home run predictions, take advantage of our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/25: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We don’t have many of these regular-season MLB home run picks articles left; we want to make sure that you know the factors that we check out for each one. Everything starts with our very own MLB weather report. We’ve got new series getting started, so we can’t just assume the weather that we’ve seen throughout the week.

Not only do we have to break down starters for our MLB home run picks like we usually do with their righty/lefty splits, expected slugging/ISO allowed, and more, but we also have to consider pitch counts now. Some teams may be implementing them in preparation for the postseason. That means we could see bullpens earlier, which are also a major factor.

Of course, the hitters themselves have tons of metrics to consider like barrel rates, hard-hit rates, launch angles, and more, so let’s get into each of our top MLB home run picks individually!

Jake Bauers (+525)

Today’s slate kicks off with a Cubs vs. Red Sox doubleheader, but we’re going to be leading off with the NL Central rivalry of Cardinals vs. Brewers. Milwaukee’s pitching rotation has been all over the map in terms of leashes for guys as they prepare for the postseason, so for our MLB home run picks, we’re going to instead pick on St. Louis starter Michael McGreevy.

He’s one that we’ve enjoyed targeting as of late, as the righty has seen the regression we were expecting for much of the season. When it comes to the power that he allows, more has come from lefties, as he has a .218 expected ISO allowed to southpaws. That’s why we aren’t going with one of our favorites - righty Jackson Chourio.

Thankfully, one of our other favorites is a lefty, which is why we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Jake Bauers hitting a HR (+525 at bet365). 

Yordan Alvarez (Odds TBD)

The next spot that we’re rolling with is - shocker - Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Look, we aren’t going to get to enjoy the Triple-A spot after this weekend during the playoffs, so why not take advantage of it while we can? We’re also going to target a lefty starter that we won’t get to pick on for MLB home run picks in the postseason - Jacob Lopez.

He’s far from the league’s worst pitcher, and can even have big K performances, but we’re still riding the Houston Astros lineup. Now that you know the opponent, you likely already know what comes next - Yordan Alvarez is one of the best lefty vs. lefty hitters in league history; he has a .308 average, .565 slugging, and .947 against them… over his CAREER.

This is not some small sample size, so let’s add to our top MLB home run picks today with Yordan Alvarez hitting a HR (Odds TBD). 

Matt Olson (+418)

Even though we know that Yordan is going to be a chalk pick, getting ANOTHER 40+ homer guy in the +400s is awesome. This is largely due to being in Miami and facing starter Eury Perez, but that’s not enough to keep us off Olson. He’s matchup-proof to begin with, and Perez isn’t impossible to cash MLB home run picks against.

While the Marlins righty is a strong starter overall, his high fastball velocity translates to high exit velocities. Although he’s allowed more power to fellow righties, we still prefer Olson a bit over Ronald Acuna, who recently got banged up again. The lefty can also cancel things out since he has a massive .288 expected ISO vs. righties.

Let’s see both him AND Yordan stay tied by going from 41 to 42, and hit another one of our best MLB home run picks for today with Matt Olson hitting a HR (+418 at DraftKings). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Not every hitter can have elite metrics like our top three MLB home run picks and bonus pick, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t others with value. So, here’s our favorite longshot for today after cashing last night’s…

We led off targeting McGreevy with a Milwaukee lefty, so why not do so again here? After all, this was a guy who was in Jake Bauers’ spot as a top three target at points this season. Even if his HR numbers have dropped, he still has a .220 ISO vs. righties! So, we’re locking in our best MLB home run longshot pick for today with a southpaw that has 20 homers!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

For even more Friday night fireworks, let’s get a for-fun parlay in here as well. Below is the trio that we’re rolling with…

That first leg is a guy that we outright mentioned; the second is a complete change to pick on our guy Tomoyuki Sugano, and the third swaps us from lefty to righty with the Atlanta lineup. Hold out for more readily available Houston odds for a swap if you’d like, but this is how we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today!