MLB Advanced Analytics: Reliever Efficiency Rate
Greg Jewett and Matt Selz collaborate on a new stat to try and remove all of the noise from saves and holds and show who's been the most efficient reliever in baseball.
In an effort to discern and evaluate how relievers fare in the highest leverage moments, Matt Selz and I collaborated on an algorithm using the leverage metrics featured on Fangraphs within an equation using strikeouts, walks and overall performance to rate them on a weekly basis. Hence, this article introduces a new way for the Fantasy Alarm family to evaluate relievers and know who to potentially speculate upon for saves or to use as pitchers to protect precious ratio statistics.
Within the rating system, the shutdown and meltdown numbers become factors for relievers from the win probability numbers on Fangraphs:
Then, Matt also incorporated the Wpa (total win probability) amassed in all outings during the season, the RE24 which measures run prevention and assigns a value to every base runners-out state where 24 exist and in which a higher value means they have been better at not allowing runners to score. Plus, it also uses WPA/pLi which accounts for each at-bat...