It’s crunch time folks. Week 1 of the NFL season is right around the corner. You may have already done some fantasy football drafts and you’re already thinking about Week 1 start/sit questions or fantasy football waiver wire pickups. If you haven’t done your drafts yet and you want the fast pass in terms of NFL offseason research, now is the time to become an All Pro Fantasy Alarm Member where the annual membership is 40%. Or, at least get your copy of the 2023 Fantasy Alarm NFL Draft Guide. In the meantime, we are going to do one final update to our little study as we’ve been breaking down how 2023 NFL player prop totals and betting lines from Vegas Sportsbooks compare to fantasy football ADP. Then we can take some of the info we learn from that and either place some NFL futures bets or update our fantasy football rankings. Simple enough? Well, let’s get to it! If you missed check out Part 1 and Part 2 to see how some of our fantasy football advice or NFL betting picks have changed throughout the summer.

 

Using NFL Player Props to Find Fantasy Football Draft Values 

For the sake of uniformity, we will be Fantasy Alarm Composite ADP for the ADP and we’ll be using DraftKings Sportsbook for as many player props as possible. It’s worth noting that, since the last time we did this in July, lines for a few players with some injury situations have come off the board completely like Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLauring, and Kadarius Toney. They also added lines for guys like Jahan Dotson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

2023 NFL Wide Receiver Player Props

DraftKings Over Unders

Yards

Rec

TDs

Proj PPR

ADP

POINTS RANK

ADP RANK

DIF

Justin Jefferson

1400.5

105.5

8.5

296.55

1.6

1

1

0

Cooper Kupp

1250.5

107.5

9.5

289.55

7.7

2

4

2

Ja'Marr Chase

1275.5

95.5

10.5

286.05

3.3

3

2

-1

Davante Adams

1300.5

99.5

8.5

280.55

17.6

4

10

6

Tyreek Hill

1300.5

102.5

7.5

277.55

6.3

5

3

-2

Stefon Diggs

1125.5

99.5

8.5

263.05

11.1

6

5

-1

Garrett Wilson

1150.5

86.5

8.5

252.55

17.6

7

9

2

CeeDee Lamb

1100.5

95.5

7.5

250.55

13.5

8

6

-2

Jaylen Waddle

1075.5

85.5

7.5

238.05

22.9

9

11

2

Amon Ra St. Brown

999.5

95.5

5.5

228.45

15.7

10

8

-2

A.J. Brown

1050.5

75.5

7.5

225.55

14.3

11

7

-4

DeVonta Smith

975.5

80.5

6.5

217.05

26.3

12

13

1

Chris Olave

1050.5

75.5

5.5

213.55

24.6

13

12

-1

DK Metcalf

900.5

75.5

7.5

210.55

34.0

14

16

2

Tee Higgins

1000.5

70.5

6.5

209.55

31.2

15

14

-1

Amari Cooper

950.5

72.5

6.5

206.55

40.5

16

18

2

Keenan Allen

875.5

85.5

5.5

206.05

40.6

17

19

2

Calvin Ridley

900.5

70.5

6.5

199.55

32.9

18

15

-3

Tyler Lockett

875.5

72.5

6.5

199.05

67.2

19

27

8

Mike Evans

925.5

65.5

6.5

197.05

78.1

20

29

9

Chris Godwin

800.5

80.5

4.5

187.55

66.4

21

25

4

Christian Kirk

825.5

70.5

5.5

186.05

66.6

22

26

4

Michael Pittman

800.5

74.5

4.5

181.55

79.9

23

30

7

Drake London

825.5

70.5

4.5

180.05

57.8

24

22

-2

Marquise Brown

800.5

70.5

4.5

177.55

86.1

25

32

7

Christian Watson

825.5

62.5

4.5

172.05

55.1

26

21

-5

Mike Williams

800.5

57.5

5.5

170.55

61.2

27

23

-4

DJ Moore

800.5

62.5

4.5

169.55

49.3

28

20

-8

Gabe Davis

775.5

50.5

6.5

167.05

89.0

29

33

4

Brandon Aiyuk

775.5

59.5

4.5

164.05

63.0

30

24

-6

Deebo Samuel

725.5

59.5

4.5

159.05

39.2

31

17

-14

George Pickens

750.5

55.5

4.5

157.55

75.9

32

28

-4

Jahan Dotson

750.5

52.5

4.5

154.55

84.9

33

31

-2

Tyler Boyd

675.5

57.5

4.5

152.05

140.9

34

36

2

Allen Lazard

650.5

52.5

4.5

144.55

131.1

35

35

0

Adam Thielen

550.5

55.5

4.5

137.55

145.6

36

37

1

Michael Gallup

600.5

49.5

4.5

136.55

164.5

37

38

1

Odell Beckham Jr

575.5

40.5

4.5

125.05

119.0

38

34

-4

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

625.5

40.5

3.5

124.05

181.7

39

39

0

2023 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Draft or NFL Betting Values 

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

The most obvious one that jumps off the board is Davante Adams. He’s still being drafted in the second round in most drafts. His ADP would suggest he’s the WR10 while Vegas lines would suggest he’s a top-five wide receiver. That has me feeling pretty good about where I’ve been taking him.

How To Take Advantage: Either draft Davante Adams in your fantasy league or bet the under for the yardage and/or reception lines

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles & Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

The books still do not like A.J. Brown. Perhaps injury is baked in but that would then be the case for a lot of people. The lines also suggest that maybe Amon-Ra St. Brown is being overdrafted in PPR and he’s almost certainly being overdrafted in half PPR. If Vegas is right, of course.

How To Take Advantage: Fade these two in fantasy drafts at ADP if you are shaky on them. If you like them, I would bet the over on ARSB for yardage and the over for A.J. Brown for receptions. 

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel is once again very much out of place when you compare his ADP to his line. You are banking on that rushing production to make up the difference.

How To Take Advantage: Folks seem to be chasing his season from the year before last when he caught a ton of balls AND had a bunch of carries. If/when he will get handoffs is tough to predict so Deebo is more of a best ball player to me.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans has had nine straight seasons with 1,000+ yards. But he’s being faded at ADP based on Baker Mayfield at QB. No other player outside of the top ~40 picks has a line set above 900 and Evans goes around pick ~78

How To Take Advantage -.Either the public is betting Evans to have 1,000 yards because he always, does which is inflating the line, or Evans is going to be a bargain at ADP.

Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars

Calvin Ridley’s projected point total comes out almost the same as Tyler Lockett and Mike Evans who go multiple rounds later. It’s also lower than Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and DK Metcalf.

How To Take Advantage: This one is tough because the unknown upside of a returning Ridley with Trevor Lawrence is what has everyone excited. For now, I’m just taking guys like Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen instead.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers & Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders

Guys like George Pickens and Jahan Dotson have gained a lot of steam this preseason. But the Vegas lines suggest maybe they are a little too overhyped. Here is a snapshot of just the wideouts going in the 5-8th rounds or so. If you believe in those two guys, might want to throw a bet down with the book.

 

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