2023 Fantasy Football Drafts: Identifying Wide Receiver Values Using NFL Player Prop Totals

I take football pretty seriously, and I know you do too, because you are here right now reading this. Especially if you are an All Pro Fantasy Alarm Member or at least you have a copy of the 2023 Fantasy Alarm NFL Fantasy Football Draft Guide. But you know who HAS to also take football incredibly seriously? Las Vegas sportsbooks. Their livelihood depends on setting these NFL gambling lines at a spot that brings in revenue. That’s why every year, when we are making our fantasy football rankings and participating in fantasy football mock drafts, we take a moment to see where some of the major sportsbooks are setting the NFL player prop totals for wide receivers. Then we compare that to fantasy football ADP to see where there might be value in our fantasy football drafts and where we might be able to place some bets. Players like Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams could be a fantasy football sleeper based on his current NFL betting lines.  

For the sake of uniformity, we will be Fantasy Alarm Composite ADP for the ADP and we’ll be using DraftKings Sportsbook for as many player props as possible. DK was missing a couple of players, like DJ Chark and Brandin Cooks, which were pulled from Ceasar’s. Now, without further ado, let’s get into it. 

2023 Fantasy Football Draft Wide Receiver Values Using NFL Player Prop Totals

Below is a chart listing NFL player prop yardage totals for prominent wide receivers for the 2023 NFL season compared to their fantasy football ADP. The chart is updated for the current NFL betting lines and average draft position as of Friday, July 21st. Before we get into analyzing these, everyone should look at this tweet by our buddy Connor Allen over at 4for4. He reviewed NFL player props over the last two years to figure out what the tendencies are. I encourage you to check out the full thread, but here is the relevant tweet on pass catchers.

And it makes sense that, in general, the unders hit more often - for a couple reasons. NFL bettors are more apt to bet on the positive side than negative. And the negative side gives you more “outs." For the over, you need the production to be there. For the under, the production could be missing OR the player could get hurt. So, if you see a line you think is too high, that is often the smarter bet than the over.

Anyway, here’s the info:

2023 Fantasy Football ADP vs NFL Betting Lines

2023 Fantasy Football Draft and Betting Values

• First thing that jumps out to us is Davante Adams. Especially in comparison to A.J. Brown, who often goes in the first round. I checked multiple books and they all essentially have it this way. DraftKings also has Adams at 8.5 TDs O/U with Brown at 7.5.
  • THE PLAY - If you feel like fantasy gamers have it right, you should be betting either the over on A.J. Brown or the under on Davante Adams. I personally have shied away from drafting Brown at ADP as much and I’ve leaned into drafting Davante Adams more. 
• As is often the case, the player labeled as the “WR2” on his own team looks like a value in a lot of places.
  • THE PLAY - Guys like Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Tyler Lockett, and Christian Kirk could all be values at ADP. When you factor in the red zone prowess for guys like Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf, it makes you feel even better about those picks.
• Deebo Samuel is once again very much out of place when you compare his ADP to his line. You are banking on that rushing production to make up the difference.
  • THE PLAY - Deebo is an incredibly fun player to watch and we saw his crazy upside in the past. But guessing where and when he’s going to contribute in the run game is tough so I like him more in best ball than redraft. 
• Mike Evans has had nine straight seasons with 1,000+ yards. But he’s being faded at ADP based on Baker Mayfield at QB. No other player outside of the top ~54 picks has a line set above 900 and he goes around pick ~80
  • THE PLAY - I’m actually staying away from action on this one on all sides. I don’t love drafting Mike Evans but it’s also hard not to bet at him finding a way to get to 1,000. As a Mike Evans fan, I’m personally just staying hands-off here and rooting for him to set that record. The public could be pushing this line up however so, if you want to do something with it, be the under on Evans.
• His Bucs teammate, Chris Godwin, has a fairly peculiar line. Especially since the narrative has been that Baker Mayfield will be better for Evans than Godwin. Godwin goes well before Evans but Evans has a line set 150 yards higher.
  • Godwin hasn’t had less than 800 yards since his rookie year. This has me a bit scared to draft him at ADP but this is one of the few overs I feel good about betting.
• With the Panthers wide receivers, I couldn’t find any odds for Jonathan Mingo. But it’s interesting that DJ Chark, who goes well after Adam Thielen, had a line set 125 yards higher.
  • With the uncertainty there, I’m willing to wait and draft Chark at ADP (or just add him off waivers considering how deep he goes). However the gap in ADP is likely related to how well Thielen does in the red area. 
• The lines reflect the uncertainty surrounding the physical specimens Kadarius Toney and Christian Watson. Fantasy gamers like them better than Vegas.
  • I’m still willing to take stabs on them at ADP. But the Toney line has me keeping an eye on Chiefs second-round pick Rashee Rice who we wrote about here in our wide receiver sleepers article. 

2022 Fantasy Football Data for Wide Receiver ADP vs Player Prop Totals

I’ve actually been tracking this for three years now. Here’s a look at last year’s over/under lines and ADP around this time of year as well as how they finished in comparison to the lines.

NOTES

• As you can see, this was a pretty good year for the top dogs. Seven of the top ten hit the over and guys like Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, and Keenan Allen were well on track if not for injury. The previous year, only three of the top ten hit the over and only one of the top five.
• Deebo Samuel was the clear outlier in ADP vs. the odds but part of the discrepancy was his usage in the run game. He got hurt as well as multiple QBs but he was only on pace for 826 receiving yards.
• Dolphins receivers blew both their ADP and lines out of the water. Jaylen Waddle in the new system went from a seven yard aDOt player to 13 yards. 
• The only players listed above to play in all 17 games and miss their overs were: DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, and Adam Thielen.
• As we pointed out last year, the lines for Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton suggested that Courtland Sutton was being overdrafted with Jeudy underdrafted and that proved to be the case with Jeudy outperforming Sutton and his line.

Related NFL Links:

• 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Guide: Late Round Wide Receivers
• 2023 NFL Best Bets: David Montgomery TD's Among Best NFL Season Long Player Props
• 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Guide: Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Football Mock Draft 1.0
• 2023 Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers July 21: Joe Mixon's Rising Draft Stock with New Contract
• NFL Breaking News: DeAndre Hopkins Signs With the Tennessee Titans