Identifying 2026 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Values Using NFL Player Prop Totals

Here we go, folks - it’s time for another one of our annual traditions. Our analysis of the wide receiver prop bet market with Vegas sportsbooks vs. ADP in fantasy football. Big shoutout to the Reddit community who helped me start this years ago. Luckily, in the modern era, prop bet lines are much more widely available, so they are easy to pull.

What we are doing here is pretty simple. With the exception of a few select players who get meaningful carries (more on that below), fantasy points for wide receivers are largely determined by three stats: receptions, yards, and touchdowns. And, with the prolific modern betting markets, we can pull lines for all three and translate those to a fantasy points projection. Then we can look at their ADP and see which market is above or below. 

For the sake of uniformity, we are deferring to a widely available sportsbook in DraftKings wherever possible. If not, we will use lines from other reputable books like BetMGM or Caesars. For this exercise, we are not going to use lines from some of the prediction markets, as many of those markets are not as balanced (the juice to bet unders can be as high as -3000 at times). We’d like the line to be between +135 and -135 at the absolute max, but ideally most of them are in the -110 to +110 range. 

Keep in mind that certain players will be excluded from this study because they don’t have lines for one reason or another. For instance, most books have taken lines down for guys like Malik Nabers and Alec Pierce due to injury. If you can find a reputable source for reception props for the following players, please message me on Twitter @CoopAFiasco, and I’ll add them: Denzel Boston, Jalen Coker, Jayden Reed, KC Concepcion, Makai Lemon, Omar Cooper Jr, Rashid Shaheed, Stefon Diggs, Xavier Worthy. I have yards and TDs but not receptions for those players.

Links To Previous Years

Here is a blurb from last year that illustrates exactly why we do this exercise. You can view the last few years in the links below.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks - The sportsbooks quietly have Jaxon-Smith Njigba with the second-highest reception total of any player. That makes sense to us considering he’s the top option by far in Seattle. Klint Kubiak loves his fullback and blocking tight end which can highly consolidate the targets. That could make JSN a PPR gem.  

WR Vegas vs. ADP 2025

WR Vegas vs. ADP 2024

WR Vegas vs. ADP 2023

Wide Receiver Vegas Props vs. ADP Study Grid

 Players in orange have been removed

UPDATE 9/2

There's been some movement since we last posted this a couple weeks ago so wanted to circle back

Removed Lines

The players above in orange have had their lines taken down since this article went up, for one reason or another. Here are the names.

• Rashee Rice - This happened around the time that Andy Reid mentioned it was uncertain whether Patrick Mahomes would start Week One or not. Going to Justin Fields would obviously reduce both the quality and volume of targets
• Emeka Egbuka - A toe injury has lingered all month, putting some games in doubt for him.
• Josh Downs - The lines for Josh Downs did not come down or change much following the signing of Keenan Allen but he suffered his own groin injury.
• Jakobi Meyers - Jakobi Meyers suffered a hand injury and the lines came down. He reportedly returned to practice today, however. 
• Jordyn Tyson - Tyson is expected to miss up to two months with a hamstring issue and is officially on IR with a designation to return.
• Jayden Higgins - Higgins suffered a season ending ACL injury so we removed him from the chart completely. 

Line Changes

• Chris Olave - Following the Jordyn Tyson injury, the lines for Olave got a boost. It didn't change his spot in the rankings but his reception line went from 82.5 to 87.5 and his yardage line went up by 25. 
• Nico Collins - Following the Jayden Higgins injury, the reception line for Collins went from 70.5 to 77.5 and his yards went up by 25. This is interesting because in the previous version of this article the lines indicated he was being overdrafted a little but now they match up with his ADP. 
• George Pickens - Money must be coming in on Pickens as yardage line went up by 50 yards from 999.5 to 1049.5. 
• Jameson Williams - the yardage line for Williams is up 25 from 899.5 to 924.5. 

ADP Changes

• Chris Olave - Olave is up a couple WR spots with him now going at the back end of the second round of drafts at times rather than the third. The Jordyn Tyson news is probably the culprit. 
• Emeka Egbuka - Injury concerns have seen him fall from WR14 to WR19 since we last looked at this. 
• Ladd McConkey - McConkey has fallen three WR spots in ADP though, as you'll see below, Vegas odds still don't like him vs. ADP.
• Luther Burden - This year's top hype pick has gained a couple spots in ADP as he starts to look healthy heading into Week One.
• Courtland Sutton - Sutton has lost three spots in the ADP WR rankings since we last did this while Jaylen Waddle has moved up a bit. 
• Brian Thomas Jr  - BTJ has lost three spots as well with some questions about his role. 

Recent Trends

One thing has become clear - Vegas has become more in tune with the fantasy football market over the past few years. So congratulations to the fantasy football research community as you seem to be doing something right (or at least Vegas finally agrees that we set the market). Either way, there are a lot fewer discrepancies 
 

The Appeal To Authority Fallacy

Last year, I wrote an article covering Logical Fallacies in Fantasy Football. And one of the fallacies covered was the Appeal to Authority. The short and sweet is that we may like to defer to who we believe is the “expert” source, but without the research backing it up, how do we trust those sources?

In this case, BOTH Vegas and ADP are two different markets. In each market, you can place your bet on EITHER side. We are looking at this info to figure out where there are discrepancies - a place to potentially create leverage. You still need to do your homework to decide which bet you are going to place.

There are four ways to play it. You can bet the over on the props or the under on the props. You can also draft the player at or above ADP or fade the player at ADP. For instance, let’s say Vegas props like Player A much more than his ADP. If you like that player, the way to use that leverage is to draft them at ADP. If you don’t like that player, and you think his ADP is correct, maybe you bet the under on their prop bets. That decision is still yours to make. 

Anywhere, here’s a look at what the information is telling us. 

Players Vegas Likes More Than ADP

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

This is the first one that jumps out at us and it's pretty simple for those paying attention - the sportsbooks don't seem to care much about offseason nonsense. They have the lines for Puka Nacua set high and the lines for Rice set high. The NFL already announced there will be no suspension for Rice so they have him protected to resume being a PPR machien with a line set at 99.5 receptions. 

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

ADP has shaken up since we last wrote this with guys like DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave coming up. Garrett Wilson has been the loser in ADP in that tier yet Vegas has held pretty firm on his props. It really has less about Wilson himself and more to do with the steam around others. 

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders 

This ADP range often sees us picking between the young upside guys who are unproven vs. some of the older veterans we are hoping don’t fall off. Vegas seems to like a bounce back for Commanders star WR Terry McLaurin, especially compared to popular picks going around him like Luther Burden and DJ Moore. 

Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams 

This one is pretty simple. Davante Adams was a touchdown machine last year. While fantasy gamers don’t love betting on touchdowns because of flukiness or inconsistency, there is no question that Adams was the favorite goal-line target for MVP Matthew Stafford. Vegas is basically daring you to bet that he doesn’t score double-digit TDs again. If he does, it would be hard for him not to be worth his ADP.  

Mike Evans, WR, San Francisco 49ers 

This guy is in this section literally every year. Though, for the first time since we started doing this, his yardage line isn’t set right at ~1,000. Last year, he finally broke his streak of consecutive 1K seasons, and ADP triumphed over Vegas odds on Evans for the first time. Which side are you on this year? 

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers 

This is the first really big swing. Seven spots. And, oddly, it’s not entirely anchored by touchdowns as you might expect for this profile with Aaron Rodgers. Vegas has the receiving yardage total for DK Metcalf set either the same as or higher than 10 players going ahead of him, including some going much farther ahead like DJ Moore and Davante Adams. The books also predict respectable numbers for Aaron Rodgers, for what that’s worth.

Michael Pittman Jr, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers 

DK Metcalf isn't the only Steelers WR that Vegas feels deserves to be drafted higher. As we mentioned, the oddsmakers do like Aaron Rodgers and they also expect Pittman to be a reliable pass-catcher with his over/under set at 70.5 receptions. That puts him five spots higher based on the books. 

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts 

These lines did not change by very much following the signing of Keenan Allen but did come down following the groin issue. He still feels like a discount in fantasy drafts to me.

Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, Tennessee Titans

The lines favor Wan'Dale even if the fantasy community largely considers him a “PPR scam”. The Titans paid him big money to come in and be the safety blanket for Cam Ward so he probably does have a decent floor even if the ceiling isn't great. 

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers 

This is interesting as Deebo Samuel is usually a player that Vegas likes LESS than ADP, typically because the lines don’t account for the extra carries he gets. But this time the lines are set higher than where fantasy values him. The signing is still recent, so we will circle back with our update to see where his ADP falls. 

Players Vegas Likes Less Than ADP

AJ Brown, WR, New England Patriots

The lines for his reception totals are quite a bit lower than some of the other high end options going in round 1-2. Drake London has been falling but the Vegas odds do favor him over Brown. 

George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys 

Last year George Pickens put up career numbers with Dak Prescott. But a big chunk of that production came in five games where CeeDee Lamb was either out or left with an injury. Pickens has a solid floor and the same contingent upside if something happens to Lamb, which fantasy gamers like. But Vegas is slightly lower on him. After 1,429 receiving yards last year, the books have the line set under 1K. 

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Egbuka is a popular year-two breakout pick with the Buccaneers. And, while Vegas skews towards the vets, fantasy gamers usually lean into the young, upside guys. Vegas is predicting a very similar season to last year for Egbuka, while fantasy drafters are hoping for a bit more. Now the lines have been pulled so you can't be there anymore. 

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

This one surprises us a bit as we are bullish on Mike McDaniel and his offense. It uses a lot of two WR sets which can highly consolidate the targets. But, after McConkey regressed last year and actually ended up with fewer targets than Keenan Allen, the sportsbooks don't seem to be buying it with McConkey. 

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

This one was not in the last edition of this article but his ADP has quietly moved up while his props have remained steady. We still like Waddle at ADP in this range in this new scheme but just know you may need to take him earlier as of late. 

DJ Moore, WR, Buffalo Bills 

This is a big one here. And the jarring line is clearly that reception total. It’s set at only 59.5, and that’s the case across multiple books. Folks expecting DJ Moore to come in and get the kind of treatment Stefon Diggs used to get should be jumping to be the over on that reception line. It does make me a little nervous for fantasy, however. The books actually have a higher number set for his teammate Khalil Shakir at 62.5. 

Luther Burden, WR, Chicago Bears

I think everyone knows the drill on this one. The steam for Luther Burden has grown steadily all offseason in fantasy circles. And not even a pulled groin can slow that down. Vegas is much more cautious on Burden than fantasy drafters have been. 

Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans 

Anyone following this series knows that the books are notoriously low on rookies. In fantasy, we know that hitting on the right rookie can create a ton of leverage. But the books know that more rookies will underperform than overperform. So they seem to want to entice us to be overs on them, knowing they will collect on more than they don’t. The same is true about Jordyn Tyson with his ADP. 

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers 

Another publicly injury-prone player. It does make us nervous that the TD total with Vegas is actually high, but the super low 50.5 reception line drags things down. Watson can be a bit of a boom/bust field stretcher, so keep that in mind when picking him. Best ball and standard are usually kinder to that profile. 

Brian Thomas Jr, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars 

The arguments for Brian Thomas are that he was banged up last year and that he can potentially bounce back to what we saw as a rookie. Vegas is cautious with their lines on all three of the Jaguars receivers, though they have Parker Washington’s yardage set a full 100 yards higher despite the players having similar ADPs. 

Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals 

Michael Wilson broke out for 1K yards last year. But most of that production came without Marvin Harrison on the field. If you believe in Wilson and that the new scheme will favor him, betting the over on his props could be profitable for you. Especially with the 54.5 reception line or the 3.5 TD line, which are both low. 

Honorable Mentions: Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Jayden Higgins, Parker Washington, Chris Godwin