Identifying Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Values Using NFL Player Prop Totals

Here we go, ladies and gentlemen - an annual tradition here at Fantasy Alarm is back again! In recent years, player props have become more and more prevalent with Vegas sportsbooks. And we realized that, if you have lines for receptions, yards, and touchdowns, you can translate that into projected PPR points based on the books. Some of these wide receivers even had an over/under total for rushing TDs - if they did, we factored that in as well! The one missing piece of the equation here for us is rushing yards, but we’ll just have to make.

For the sake of uniformity, we are using lines via Betting Pros, which pulls the odds from about seven different sources and provides a consensus. We are then comparing that to the Fantasy Alarm Consensus ADP, which also pulls seven different sources. That’s going to give us the best look at what the market is telling us from both sides for PPR formats. 

Keep in mind that certain players will be excluded from this study because they don’t have lines for one reason or another. For instance, guys like Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and Chris Godwin are hurt, which also has books scared to put up certain lines for players like Emeka Egbuka and Ricky Pearsall (if you can find reliable reception total lines for them, message me on Twitter @CoopAFiasco!) Players dealing with suspensions like Rashee Rice and Jordan Addison also don’t have lines. The same goes for some rookies and deep-cut players. 

That said, we were able to pull lines and ADPs reliably for nearly 40 different players. In case you wanted to look at some historical versions of this article, here is last year's and here is 2023’s. 

Anyway, here are the lines that we could find for 2025, as well as a few notes below on what we might be able to glean! I will do my best to update this article again as we get closer to the season, so make sure to check back!

This year has by far the most consensus at the very top vs. past years. The ADP for the top six guys actually matches up with what Vegas is predicting when, in past years, we haven’t even seen the top 3 lined up. There has been a trend towards Vegas lining up more closely with the fantasy community, so you can be proud of yourselves, fantasy football folks! Here are some guys who do not match up.

Players Vegas Likes More Than ADP

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR,  Seattle Seahawks - The sportsbooks quietly have Jaxon-Smith Njigba with the sixth-highest reception total of any player. That makes sense to us, considering he’s the top option by far in Seattle. Klint Kubiak loves his fullback and blocking tight end, which can highly consolidate the targets. That could make JSN a PPR gem.  
• Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams  -  Vegas still likes Puka Nacua to lead the team in receptions and yards, but, as Sean McVay himself has mentioned, Adams brings a redzone presence that they haven’t had. His 8.5 TD over/under is one of the highest out there, which could help him in standard leagues if you play that format. Even for PPR, Vegas suggests Adams should be going closer to the WR1 range in a 12-team league than his WR16 ADP. 
• DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears - DJ Moore told reporters back in July that he thinks he might get fewer touches in this scheme. And that may be after catching 98 and 96 passes the last two years. But Vegas doesn’t necessarily see it that way, with him having the 9th highest over/under reception total. The odds suggest he should be going a few spots earlier than he does. 
• Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs - Vegas loves Xavier Worthy, thanks in part to them projecting 1.5 rushing TDs for him. He did get a meaningful 20 carries for 100 yards and 2 TDs last year, so that SHOULD be factored in. Naturally, that kind of stuff is better in best ball as it’s not super predictable, but he got over a carry a game last year. Even without the 1.5 TDs included, the receiving odds alone would put him above ADP. 
• Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans - Vegas thinks we might be sleeping on the top pass-catcher for the Titans. He’s coming off back-to-back 1,000+ yard receiving seasons with bad QBs, so why can’t he do that again with a potential QB upgrade? The books think he will. 
• Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins - Our own Howard Bender has not been a fan of Jaylen Waddle, pointing out that he can be inconsistent and is often injured. But the books are down on Tyreek Hill (as we’ll get to) and up on Waddle this year in Miami’s offense. He should be reliable in PPR formats if the projections are right.
• Rome Odunze WR, Chicago Bears - Vegas seems bullish on Ben Johnson and his scheme as Rome Odunze appears as one of the bigger values vs. ADP based on the Vegas odds. This line suggests that he could be operating in a Jameson Williams-type role as the numbers aren’t that far off between these two players, with Odunze actually projected to score more points via Vegas. And yes, Jameson Williams does have a Vegas line for 0.5 rush TDs that was included. Maybe Odunze could get some carries, too, the way Williams did for Ben Johnson.
• Honorable Mentions: Drake London, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Chris Olave, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman

Players Vegas Likes Less Than ADP

• Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans - Two spots isn’t that big of a deal, but at the very top, it matters. Especially since every player before Collins matches up with their Vegas projections. The implications of these lines suggest that Collins should generally be going behind both Brian Thomas Jr and Drake London, and that doesn’t happen often as of now. So keep that in mind - might be a good idea to just take a running back towards the end of the first round, then take whatever WR falls in the second. 
• Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins - Tyreek Hill is an explosive player on the field, but is also known to blow up off it as well. Vegas clearly does not want to risk the injuries or the antics for Tyreek, allowing folks to cash out on the under bets. In fantasy, he remains one of the most highest-risk, high-reward players, as we obviously know he’s capable of great things. But it’s certainly a pick that makes us nervous.
• Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets  - Garrett Wilson is viewed as one of the most overdrafted players by the books. And I’m not surprised, given how the QB lines are set. Every single QB, including guys like Bryce Young and Cam Ward, has an over/under passing total of ~3,200 except one - Justin Fields. Fields is actually set at ~2,500, which makes sense given that’s right around the most he’s ever done. Vegas has me worried about this Jets pass attack.
• Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers - We know the deal here. Rookies present a lot of uncertainty. In your fantasy drafts, you have to go and get them early if you want a shot at upside. But we all know the downside, too - there are no sure things with guys that have never played. You know the bet you are making on both ends. 
• Travis Hunter, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars - Same deal here, really. Yes, Hunter was picked second overall and has exciting upside. But he’s a fairly raw talent, and we don’t know the degree to which he will be deployed on offense and defense. This doesn’t mean that he’s a bad pick at ADP, just know the risks you are taking. 
• Honorable Mentions: Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins, Marvin Harrison Jr, DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, Jameson Williams, Matthew Golden