It’s kind of crazy how different these DFS slates can be from week to week. Some weeks there is an obvious pay up. Some weeks there is an obvious pay down (thank you, Week 2 Dalton Schultz). In others, there are a lot of good options, so we just circle back to tight end and see what fits. And, in some weeks, matchups and injuries completely flatten out the landscape. And that goes for all positions - which is why you should check every DFS coach article each week.
As you will see below, this is one of those weeks that has been flattened out - especially across the top. So we’ll have to pick and choose our spots across the board and figure out exactly where the best value lies.
NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Week 7
Trey McBride TE, Arizona Cardinals - DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $7,200
As I mentioned, the tough matchups at the top for this slate are really flattening things out, making it a good week to look to the mid- or low-level tight ends if you ask me. Brock Bowers faces a Rams defense that has been the best against the tight end all year (which is even tougher if Trent McDuffie plays). George Kittle gets Atlanta and Jessie Bates (and possibly Divine Deablo if he plays). Isaiah Likely gets the Texans; Tyler Warren gets the Steelers. Not great.
And, even though the Broncos are generally a good defense, they are actually much better on the outside than over the middle. Patrick Surtain got a limited practice, and they are especially good at funneling things over the middle when he’s active. So Trey McBride will probably be in line for a high-volume day in this matchup. I know he’s better in full PPR, but it’s worth mentioning that he takes up 14.8% of your budget on DK but only 12% on FanDuel - he’s actually cheaper in raw price on FanDuel than DK, which is quite rare.
Tucker Kraft TE, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $4,700 | FanDuel: $5,500
As we mentioned, we really don’t like the matchups at the top here for the elite-level tight ends. Some could even say Tucker Kraft is a “mid-level” price, which makes him even more appealing. But he’s probably the highest-priced guy we really like.
Kraft hasn’t yet flashed the chunk plays we have seen from him in the past. And part of that could be him starting slow coming off an ACL injury from last season. But if there was ever an opportunity for him to flash that ability, it would be this week against the Lions. Kerby Joseph is still out, and Brian Branch may or may not be making his debut. They have been the worst team against the tight end all season.
NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For Week 7
T.J. Hockenson TE, Minnesota Vikings- DraftKings: $4,500 | FanDuel: $5,100
It’s pretty well known that Kyler Murray likes to scramble around. But what is lesser known is that, when he doesn’t do that, he gets the ball out of his hands extremely quickly. He’s quietly been among the leaders in QBs to get the ball out in under 2.5 seconds over the last couple of years - he’s either throwing it right away or he’s bailing on the play and scrambling.
That obviously played into the tight end in Arizona with Trey McBride. And we are seeing that in Minnesota in his early games as well. Ever since Josh Oliver tore his pec, Hockenson has had a bigger snap share and a bigger route participation. If he’s actually healthy here, we like him as a play in DFS this week with a good matchup. Hock is one of the few tight ends in this article that is more favorably priced on FanDuel than DK if you play over there.
Kyle Pitts TE, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $5,300
Ah yes, Mr. Pitts. Our old friend and enemy. We have been burned by this fella plenty. But we also can’t ignore that he has still managed some of the big spike weeks. This is one of the few guys that actually does rip off chunk plays from time to time. Last week he not only had the two scores, but he had a pretty nice contested catch into a juke into a hurdle. Not many tight ends are doing that.
Things have been pretty different across the board for this Falcons offense with Michael Penix out there vs. the other backups. And, as of late, Pitts has been much more involved in the fun. After a VERY slow start, he has 6 and 7 targets in the past couple of weeks, while his price does not seem to be catching up to his usage. We know the floor isn’t great, but at least the ceiling seems to be back. This game has a high over/under, so we want pieces.
NFL DFS TE Value Picks For Week 7
Tyler Higbee TE, Los Angeles Rams - DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $4,900
This will probably shock some folks. Because we typically do not like Tyler Higbee. And we correctly faded him into the dirt last week while everyone was chasing him. His 11% target share was fine when they were throwing 50+ times, but not in a normal game script. But, as you should know by now, conditions have changed.
Davante Adams is now out. That not only frees up targets but it frees up valuable endzone targets, something Higbee has gotten zero of so far this year. They didn’t trade for a WR (yet) and Terrance Ferguson is still on IR for another week. Last week Higbee ran 31 routes and lined up at WR for 42% of his snaps, compared to Colby Parkinson, who ran 20 routes and lined up at WR for only 17%. So all of a sudden Higbee is a viable option for us this week. Funny how that happens.
Cade Otton TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DraftKings: $3,100 | FanDuel: $4,900
Here is the plan. There are TWO parts to this one. Emeka Egbuka is in concussion protocol. And the team will make a decision on Baker Mayfield plays or not on Friday. If Egbuka is OUT and Mayfield is IN, we will use Cade Otton this week against the Panthers. If either one of those goes the wrong way, we like either Higbee or this next play. All three guys in this tier have very similar prices, so that’s going to matter to us.
Greg Dulcich TE, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $4,900
This one takes a minor leap of faith. Because Greg Dulcich has had two promising games lately sandwiched between one straight-up goose egg. In the two good games, Dulcich ran 70% of the routes and got 7 and 5 targets. He easily would have paid off his price in those two games, especially since he had a big catch in the first and a two-point conversion in the second.
That middle game, though, was rough. He only ran 10 routes, which seems crazy low until you realize they only dropped back to pass 20 times. And Willis only threw the ball on 17 of them, completing 9. They only played 39 snaps, which is the second lowest this year behind only the Jets, who played an insane 32 in that same week. The Jets and Dolphins play each other this week, and at least one of these teams is going to have to play a normal number of snaps. And Dulcich could go back to the guy who got 5-7 targets. Not many guys in this price range ever get 5+ targets. We especially like Dulcich on DK compared to Higbee, as they are the same price on FanDuel, but Dulcich is a bit cheaper on DK.
NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 7
Mark Andrews TE, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $3,900 | FanDuel: $5,200
There is an annoying thing that happens in the NFL where guys are “hurt” but they aren’t necessarily “injured”. So they aren’t on the injury report, but they aren’t really 100% either. And we think that’s what is going on with Andrews. He hurt his hand against the Cowboys in Week 3 but never really missed any time. Since then, though, he’s had some bad drops, he had a fumble, and he hasn’t been playing all the snaps. After he only ran 66% of the routes last week, even with Matt Hibner out, we simply cannot trust this guy in any capacity.
Michael Mayer TE, Las Vegas Raiders - DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $4,900
People think this is a sneaky play. But, if it wasn’t, I wouldn’t have 20 people asking me about it every week. And sometimes we might actually use it - but not this week. The truth is that Michael Mayer IS the starting tight end for the Raiders. Brock Bowers plays WR. And Michael Mayer is priced like a starter in DFS; he’s really not cheap. And he has a bad matchup for inline tight ends with the Rams. So we aren’t using him.