Week 2 was quite the celebration for us as our Play of the Week, Dalton Schultz, delivered with a monster 12-reception game. DraftKings seems to have learned their lesson, though, after being the 25th-priced tight end last week, Schultz is now the ninth-most expensive player. That’s alright though, as it’s our job to look ahead to THIS week’s bargains, not last week’s values. So let’s dive in and figure out our angle for Week 3!

 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Week 3

Trey McBride TE, Arizona Cardinals

DraftKings: $6,700 | FanDuel: $7,300

Trey McBride won’t always be in this article. But he will continue to be in it while we are protesting. Prime Travis Kelce was virtually always set north of $7K on DraftKings. And that’s because Travis Kelce would give you elite WR numbers in his prime. So you had to price him that way so he wouldn’t be an obvious FLEX option.

Trey McBride just had a top-five all-time tight end season last year. He has gotten double-digit targets in each of his first two games. Yet his price actually went DOWN compared to last week. There are still 18 players priced higher than him in the flex spot. He’s just too good for that - he IS prime Travis Kelce. So, if you can afford to use McBride, either at TE or the flex, it’s a good play this week. 

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $5,700

We have been saying this for years now. Dalton Kincaid needs more snaps. If you look at virtually every chart that measures stats on a “per route run” basis, Kincaid has been up in the top right corner. He’s been super efficient. But he’s been reduced to a part-time player in the Bills offense.

That is, until now. This year he’s up at 70% route participation. And, as predicted, he’s ripping faces off. The crazy part is, he still has another gear. What if he gets up to 80% or 90% like Trey McBride? Right now he’s $1,200 cheaper than McBride, but he’s our next best bet to be the TE1 on the week. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For Week 3

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $5,300

I’ve been a little bit confused by some of the waiver wire questions I’ve been getting regarding Mark Andrews. Specifically, people are saying they either want to upgrade from Andrews or potentially even drop him completely. And I’m not quite sure what is not to like here in a sea of brutal tight end options.

Mark Andrews has a solid snap share and route participation. He’s running ~68% of his routes from a WR spot, which is what Declan Doyle did with Colston Loveland last year. He’s rarely asked to pass block, and his aDOT is healthy. He’s gotten a 30% first-read target share so far, which is third behind only Trey McBride and Isaiah Likely. And this week he faces the Cowboys. Ja’Kobi Lane is on IR, and Zay Flowers is working through this hamstring problem, so why exactly don’t we like Mark Andrews coming off games with 6 and seven targets here?

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $5,100

We’re going to go back to the well here on Pat Freiermuth. It was yet another serviceable week for him in his price range in Week 2. He’s gotten five targets both weeks, catching all of them in Week 1 and four of them last week. He didn’t find paydirt as he did in Week 1, but we did see an interesting wrinkle this week that we did not in the previous week.

This year Freiermuth is not only playing more snaps than he did under Arthur Smith, but he’s running more routes from a WR spot - nearly 70%. That was true in Week 1 with Michael Pittman active, so at this price, we are willing to use Freiermuth with or without Pittman in there (obviously it would be better without him, though). The matchup is the same Bengals team Dalton Schultz teed off on last week, and the new wrinkle is the Tush Push that Freiermuth had to convert a first down. We just watched AJ Barner score on one of those last week - it could be Freiermuth this week.

 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For Week 3

Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets

DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $4,700 

There is a game within the game for rookies. When you look at guys like Harold Fannin and Colston Loveland last year, they didn’t get a full-time role right away. They got ramped up, and eventually they broke out. So figuring out WHO will break out is one game, but the second is figuring out WHEN. Because after they break out, the DFS platforms are just going to boost their price moving forward, and the discount will be gone. I mean, look at Dalton Schultz this week.

So we need to strike while the iron is hot. And the iron is heating up for Kenyon Sadiq. His slot competition, fellow rookie Omar Cooper Jr., was put on IR last week. Now fellow tight end Mason Taylor is dealing with a thumb injury. It’s easy to forget that Harold Fannin was operating behind David Njoku until Njoku got hurt, and that’s the kind of opportunity we are looking at with the freakishly athletic Kenyon Sadiq this week. He’s a rare discount on FanDuel that we don’t usually get at tight ends, if you play over there. 

Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders

DraftKings: $2,600 | FanDuel: $4,300

This one is pretty gross, no doubt about it. But the price here is also pretty darn low. On DraftKings, for instance, the bare minimum price for wide receivers and running backs is $3,000, at tight end it’s $2,500. Sinnott is priced at $2,600, so very close to a bare minimum play.

With Chig Okonkwo out, Sinnott has become the primary tight end for the Commanders with John Bates operating as the inline blocker. Sinnott played 48 snaps and ran 20 routes while Bates played 22 snaps and only ran four routes. With Marcus Mariota coming in, we don’t know who he will lean on. Maybe there will be some of that chemistry leftover from operating on the second team all summer?

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 3

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $6,100

George Kittle makes me nervous. This past week he scored a touchdown, which has everyone proclaiming that George Kittle is back. But when you lift the hood, he’s clearly not all the way back. He went from ~45% route participation in Week 1 to only 55% route participation in Week Two. That doesn’t cut it, and it also doesn’t guarantee that it jumps up this week. In DFS, we want maximum upside, and we can’t necessarily get that if Kittle is going to be taking a bunch of plays off. 

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,200

Juwan Johnson has been a staple of ours in these articles. And he’s keeping some Yin & Yang tight end teams alive in redraft. But his usage recently has made us nervous. They have not only mixed in Noah Fant, but now rookie Oscar Delp is healthy and sneaking in on some pass plays. That saw Juwan Johnson play only 53% of the snaps last week. Maybe he will bounce back here, but we don’t like the direction this is trending in. And trends are all we have early in the season.