I don’t want to scare anyone here. But as this thread points out, with stats to back it up, you need to be very careful if you are 0-2. Historically, only about 20% of teams make the playoffs after starting 0-2. And if you go 0-3, that drops to 8%. That means that “must win” territory in fantasy football actually starts a lot sooner than you think.

The good news is that those numbers include a lot of losers that don’t actually care about their fantasy team. The folks that don’t even take the time to set their lineups, let alone hit the waiver wire or the trade phones. That’s not us here at Fantasy Alarm. So the odds are simply better for us when it comes to fighting back. And that starts with making the right start/sit decisions on the fringes of your lineup. So why don’t we jump into that now? 

Who Should You Start in Fantasy Football This Week?

One thing that will always remain true with this article or any of our content is that it is more satisfying when you go with your heart or your gut or whatever body part wills you to make the most fun decisions. Fantasy football is SUPPOSED to be fun. And it’s more fun when YOU make the decisions. That said, I’ve been using my pesky brain over here to come up with some reasons why you should or shouldn’t start some of the guys sitting on the fringe of lineups. So here is my fantasy football lineup advice for those guys.

 

 

 

Week 3 Quarterback Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Start: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Typically, we aren’t super bullish on Jordan Love. But situations aren’t typical here. Without Josh Jacobs, the Packers aren’t nearly as dominant of a run team as they historically have been. And that’s seen Jordan Love call for more action in the pass game. Jayden Reed is out, but Tucker Kraft is back to 100% after playing 98% of the snaps this past week, and both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden look good on the outside. The Falcons defense has been brutal, and they just lost their top corner AJ Terrell to the IR, so Love is a pretty decent play this week. 

Start: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

This week was a bloodbath at the quarterback position. If you got lucky, you were able to add Tyler Shough off the wire (I’m starting him in leagues myself). Not only is Shough the gunslinger for Kellen Moore’s high-octane offense, but he’s also actually adding more mobile upside than we imagined. If you take all QBs and remove scrambles, kneels, and sneaks, that gives us designed runs. Shough is actually currently tied with Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson for the league lead in designed runs with five. Starting him against the Raiders this week is pretty solid. 

Sit: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

The Puka Nacua situation makes me nervous, especially when you hear how Sean McVay is talking about the bigger picture and spreading the ball around. That doesn’t make me confident their star wide receiver is going to be out there doing star wide receiver things this week. It’s also one of the worst matchups out there against the Denver Broncos. Since Stafford has very little interest in running or even doing QB sneaks, we really need him at his prime, passing the football to get him in there. Doesn’t feel like the right week. 

Sit: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

I’m not really pumped on Bo Nix coming back the other way in this one either, wherever I can avoid it. Bo Nix was a guy we were looking to sell coming off his rookie year, as we didn’t really trust him as a high-end rusher - he’s more of an opportunistic runner. He just doesn’t have the athleticism that some of these other mobile QBs have. That, along with coming off an injury, has had him only running for 8 total yards through two weeks here. And he has two TD passes with 2 interceptions on top of that. Now he gets the Rams defense in a game where I’m taking the under. 

Week 3 Running Back Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Start: Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week we had Jaylen Warren as a sit in this article. And that’s because Rico Dowdle had way too big of a role in Week One, which included all of the pass-pro work. So guess what happened in Week 2? Rico Dowdle suffered an injury that has landed him in a walking boot. Jaylen Warren missed practice today, but our guess is that it’s just a veteran rest day. I’m expecting them to call someone up off the practice squad but, as of now, it’s just Jaylen Warren and Eli Heidenreich on the roster. And they are going up against a leaky Bengals defense. 

Start: Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns

The schedule is the schedule. So it’s not Quinshon Judkins’s fault he faced last year’s number one run defense in Jacksonville, then faced Vita Vea and Tampa Bay this week. That’s just the way she goes. And we weren’t starting Judkins where we could avoid it. But his deployment has quietly been good, especially with Dylan Sampson out. So we expect better days for Judkins, starting this week in Carolina.  

Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

This Jaguars run defense is just as tough as last year. In Week One, they buried Quinshon Judkins, as we just mentioned. And, even in a loss to the Broncos last week, neither Denver back could get anything going, as they were both held under four yards a carry. We are trying not to start either Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson if we have better options. The Patriots just lost guard Michael Onwenu to injury as well. 

Sit: MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers

The MarShawn Lloyd dream is starting to crumble right before our eyes. When Josh Jacobs was arrested, Lloyd shot up draft boards on the hope of an unknown mystery box. And he did start for the Packers, though Chris Brooks got more snaps in Week One because he got the pass work. Chris Brooks also led in snaps in Week Two, but now Kaleb Johnson, who they acquired via trade, played the same number of snaps as Lloyd. At this stage, we really have no interest in starting Lloyd. If the trend continues, he doesn’t even need to be held. 

 

 

 

Week 3 Wide Receiver Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Start: Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers

Matthew Golden is one of those guys that you draft as an upside bench stash. A post hype sleeper, if you will, who was drafted in the first round last year. Well, I’m ready now to throw this guy right into lineups. He was already playing a full-time snap share opposite Christian Watson, ahead of veteran Jayden Reed. Now Jayden Reed has suffered a neck injury. When Reed was out last year, Golden picked up some slot snaps. It’s a good matchup this week with Atlanta, so we’re taking Golden for a spin. 

Start: Adonai Mitchell, New York Jets

Adonai Mitchell has been a pleasant surprise, flying around the field for the Jets. Last week he had the breakout game with 11 targets. The usage is pretty good, and Geno doesn’t look terrible, so this might not be a fluke. And, with Omar Cooper Jr. and Mason Taylor injured, the Jets are running thin on viable pass-catchers. The Lions run a ton of man-to-man, and their safeties are banged up, so Mitchell could get loose for a long touchdown again, just like Joshua Palmer did against them last Thursday. 

Sit: Stefon Diggs, Washington Commanders

This might sound crazy at first glance, as Stefon Diggs is like the WR3 in fantasy right now. But the more you look into it, the worse it gets. First off, he’s done that largely via three touchdowns in two games, which isn’t really sustainable. He’s also only been a part-time guy, even with some of the injuries they have had over there. They face the Seahawks this week, who have one of the best secondaries in the league. And all that is burying the lede a bit, as the biggest problem is that Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow, which puts Marcus Mariota in the driver’s seat. 

Sit: Luther Burden, Chicago Bears

It’s kind of crazy the “hopium” that fantasy football will make us have. So I just want to nip some of these comments I’ve seen right in the bud right now - no, having the third-string quarterback come in for the Bears is not a good thing for Luther Burden. It is a bad thing for everyone. Vegas is straight up telling us that by having the Bears as 4.5-point underdogs at home here. The over/under for this game is only 41 points, and the Eagles have Cooper DeJean and some of the best slot-cover guys in the whole league. Why would any of that be good for Luther Burden?

Week 3 Tight End Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Start: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

It’s kind of crazy that I need to say this. But I have gotten enough Kraft questions so far that I need to make a statement here, I guess. You start Tucker Kraft moving forward. And I’m not even a huge Kraft guy in general. But in Week One, Kraft ran less than 50% of the routes but got six targets. In Week Two, he only got three targets, but he quietly ran 87% of the routes. I would MUCH rather see that second game in terms of predicting what happens next for a guy coming off injury. Plus, Jayden Reed is now out, and they run routes in the same area. Tucker Kraft is going to be just fine. 

Start: Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans

Dalton Schultz was our start of the week last week with injuries to the Texans pass-catchers and a great matchup with the Bengals. And he went crazy. So I’m literally surprised to see the general public has Schultz ranked in a spot where you probably won’t start him again this week. Why? The Colts are not a good defense against the tight end, and guys like Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell are not walking through that door, even if Nico Collins does. Schultz doesn’t need to have 14 targets again to be a good start this week. I have him ranked TE9 where he is there for you if you need him. 

SIT: Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson has kept our teams afloat in our Yin & Yang tight end strategy. And he’s not a terrible play by any means at a tough position. But I’m starting to get more and more nervous about Johnson. The Saints seem compelled to mix in guys like Noah Fant and rookie Oscar Delp. That saw the route participation for Johnson drop to only 62% this week. This one is more of a long-term warning than just a weekly one - if Johnson is your guy, you need to start planning ahead. It’s not going to get better when Jordyn Tyson comes back. 

SIT: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

You will be tempted to start Jake Ferguson because he scored two touchdowns last week. But has anything actually changed for Jake Ferguson? He’s still the third target on the team behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Last year, when everyone was healthy, Ferguson was the TE20 in points per game. It was in the five games without Lamb that he was the TE2 in points per game. So, sure, he got four targets last week. But in Week One, he had 2 targets and 6 yards. This Ravens defense has some great safeties and linebackers, so it’s really not a good spot for Ferguson. 

 

 

 

Week 3 D/ST Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Start: Kansas City Chiefs

The Dolphins were set up to be the worst team in the league. They have more dead cap than active spending. And they are playing like it too. They aren’t even calling designed run plays for their mobile quarterback because it’s not worth it. So the Kansas City Chiefs are a smash start for us in fantasy, and they were available on a shocking number of waiver wires. 

SIT: Denver Broncos

I really don’t like dropping good defenses if I can avoid it. So I’ll just roll out the Broncos in a lot of leagues because I believe in the unit. But this is a terrible matchup, and the matchups don’t get all that much better over the next couple of weeks. If you started 0-2, you might need to do something here to give yourself the best possible odds of not starting 0-3. 

How To Handle The Toughest Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Decisions?

This is actually simpler than you’d think. Because Fantasy Alarm has three different ways for you to handle your tough start/sit decisions:

  • Weekly Rankings - I do these rankings personally every week and keep them updated based on the news and rumors
  • League Sync - Sync up your actual league to our systems so you can receive custom advice for your own settings. 
  • Start/Sit Tool - Plug in the two players and see what our projections and matchup analysis have to say.