Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? Week 4's Sunday slate features a Jaguars tight end who draws one of the softer matchups in football and a Vikings back who's taken over as the clear lead option. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 4 slate, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.
Jaguars vs. Bengals and Dolphins vs. Vikings: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Brenton Strange and the Jaguars travel to Cincinnati for a game that carries one of the highest totals on the Week 4 board, while Aaron Jones and the Vikings host a winless Dolphins team as a massive home favorite. Both players have favorable matchups lining up at exactly the right time. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this slate.
Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 4
Brenton Strange NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 32.5 Receiving Yards
Strange has quietly put together a steady three-game stretch for Jacksonville, going for 23, 17, and 32 receiving yards on a modest 12.3% target share. The matchup against Cincinnati lines up well for a step forward, as the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season in a game that carries one of the highest totals of the week in the low 50s. With his role as Jacksonville's clear top tight end intact and a defense this generous to the position on the other side, clearing 32.5 yards for a new season high is very plausible.
Aaron Jones NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 67.5 Rushing Yards
Since Jordan Mason fractured his thumb and landed on injured reserve, Jones has been the unquestioned engine of Minnesota's offense, averaging 20 carries and 81.5 rushing yards over his last two games. The matchup could hardly be more favorable, with the Vikings a massive 11.5-point home favorite against a winless Dolphins team that has given up a league-high 30.3 fantasy points per game to running backs. With Justin Jefferson also sidelined and Minnesota leaning further into the run, clearing 67.5 rushing yards is well within range for a back who's been running well beyond that pace.
Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Week 4 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Strange and Jones as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
How to Play These Splash Picks NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Get Over $50 in Bonuses
Ready to build an entry around these picks? Sign up for Splash Picks with promo code ALARM and unlock over $50 in bonuses to get started. Just create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and the bonus offers apply automatically, no extra steps needed. Check out all of Fantasy Alarm's active offers for even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Week 4 Sunday slate that's already stacked with value.