Looking for the best NFL MNF player prop picks to close out Week 5? The Bills and Rams, two of the top Super Bowl contenders on the odds board, meet at SoFi Stadium with the Rams favored by about three points and the total set at 54.5. Below, we break down our top Bills vs. Rams player props, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Monday Night Football Player Prop Picks
This one has shootout written all over it. Los Angeles is averaging 417 yards per game, and Buffalo is averaging 31.8 points, while both defenses have shown cracks, including a Bills unit that ranks 27th in total defense. Stafford has been throwing at a heavy pace, and Buffalo is without Joshua Palmer and may be without DJ Moore. Here are the props we like best for Monday night.
Bills vs. Rams Player Props: Matthew Stafford Over 37.5 Pass Attempts
Stafford has attempted 55 and 51 passes in the last two games, and his 162 attempts through four weeks (40.5 per game) rank among the highest in the league. He enters the week fourth in the NFL in passing yards at 1,189, and this matchup sets up for another high-volume night, with the total at 54.5 and a Bills defense that ranks 27th in total defense at 372 yards allowed per game and 25th in scoring defense at 26.8 points per game. Buffalo's offense is averaging 31.8 points per game, which means Los Angeles could be throwing to keep pace, and Stafford has a full set of weapons with Davante Adams leading the team in receiving yards and Puka Nacua back from injury with nine catches for 125 yards last week. He has cleared 37.5 attempts in the last two games, though not in the first two, when the Rams were rolling over the Giants and pulled him in the opener, so game script matters here.
Bills vs. Rams Player Prop Bets: Josh Allen Over 32.5 Pass Attempts
Allen has attempted 29, 31, 26, and 33 passes through four games, so this number sits just above his average, but this game sets up for more volume than most. The total is 54.5; the Rams are slight favorites with a quarterback who has thrown 55 and 51 passes the last two weeks, and Buffalo's defense ranks 27th in total defense, which could turn this into an exchange of scores that forces the Bills to keep throwing. Allen has also seen DJ Moore leave games with a shoulder injury twice, Moore is questionable again, and Joshua Palmer is out, but Buffalo leaned on Allen's arm for 33 attempts in last week's loss to New England when it fell behind. A shootout is the likeliest way to get to 33 attempts, and clearing 32.5 looks like a reasonable ask.
Monday Night Football Player Props: Keon Coleman Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Coleman has quietly become Buffalo's most important backup plan, catching six passes for 116 yards and a touchdown last week after Moore left the game with a shoulder injury, his third 100-yard game as a pro. In Week 2, when Moore also left early, Coleman caught all six of his targets for 63 yards, so in the two games Moore has exited he has 12 catches for 179 yards and a score on 13 targets. Moore is questionable again with an AC joint injury, Joshua Palmer is out, and Coleman is listed with no designation after an ankle issue, so he is in line for another prominent role. Los Angeles has a 54.5-point total that should mean plenty of Buffalo passing, and clearing 36.5 yards looks very reasonable. He has produced just two catches for 38 yards in the games Moore was healthy, so Moore's status is the key variable.
Bills vs. Rams Player Prop Bets: Kyren Williams Over 68.5 Rushing Yards
Williams has run for 85, 88, and 80 yards in the last three games, averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the season with 294 yards on 54 carries, and he is firmly entrenched as the Rams' lead back. Blake Corum's workload has shrunk from 22 carries in the first two games to 11 in the last two, and Williams played 70 of the Rams' 84 snaps last week with 26 touches. Buffalo's defense ranks 27th in total defense, giving up 372 yards per game, and the Rams are slight home favorites in a game with a 54.5-point total, which should mean plenty of opportunity. The risk is that Corum picks up carries if Los Angeles takes a lead or if the game turns into a pass-heavy shootout, but a back averaging 5.4 yards per carry in a favorable matchup clearing 68.5 yards looks like a good bet.
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