Need the best PrizePicks NFL picks today to close out Week 5? Monday Night Football brings a potential Super Bowl preview to SoFi Stadium as the Bills visit the Rams, with a 54.5-point total on the board. Below, we cover our favorite PrizePicks NFL picks for this matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

Bills vs. Rams: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Matthew Stafford has attempted 55 and 51 passes in his last two games, while Josh Allen leads a Buffalo offense that averages 31.8 points per game. Both defenses have struggled, with the Bills ranking 27th in total defense, which sets up a game where both quarterbacks could throw a lot. Let's break down the PrizePicks plays we like most for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best PrizePicks NFL Picks for MNF, Week 5

Matthew Stafford NFL PrizePicks Pick: Higher 37.5 Pass Attempts

Few quarterbacks throw as much as Stafford, who has attempted 162 passes through four games, including 55 against Denver and 51 against Philadelphia. The Rams pass on nearly 59% of their plays, and they now face a Bills defense that ranks 27th in total defense and has been burned for 26.8 points per game, with a total of 54.5 that suggests plenty of scoring. Buffalo's offense averages 31.8 points per game, so Los Angeles figures to stay aggressive through the air, with Adams and a returning Nacua as targets. Stafford sailed over this number in each of the last two games, and this setup looks similar.

Josh Allen NFL PrizePicks Pick: Higher 32.5 Pass Attempts

Allen has thrown 29, 31, 26, and 33 passes through four games, so 32.5 is slightly above his norm, but a high-scoring game against the Rams could push him well past it. Los Angeles averages 417 total yards per game; the total sits at 54.5, and Buffalo's defense ranks 27th in total defense, so the Bills may need to throw to match the Rams drive for drive. Allen also has fewer reliable receivers than usual, with Moore questionable and Palmer out, but Shakir and Coleman showed last week that the passing game can still produce. In a shootout, Allen clearing 32.5 attempts looks very doable.

PrizePicks NFL Player Projections for Bills vs. Rams

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Stafford and Allen as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every PrizePicks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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