This game is a testament to how strange the NFL can be at times. We have a game here where the Giants are first place in their division and the Saints are last place in theirs. The game is being played in New York City. Yet the Saints are actually favored by 1.5 points on the road. How did we get here?
The Giants are quietly sitting atop their division at 3-1-1. Which is shocking considering they lost their starting quarterback, Jaxson Dart, and have been rolling with journeyman Jameis Winston. They should probably be 3-2, but Jayden Daniels and company gifted them a tie with a blunder last week. In the NFC East, 3-2 would still be good for first place anyway.
The Saints are sitting at 1-4 at the bottom of their division. Which might surprise some folks, especially those who play fantasy football, because this team has some pretty good pieces on paper. Besides the Falcons game, they really haven’t been getting blown out here. They beat the Ravens. They lost by one point to the Lions. Then they lost by one score to the Ravens and couldn’t do much last week against a tough Vikings defense. That’s how we arrive at a 1.5-point spread.
🏅 Saints vs. Giants Expert Pick: Isaiah Likely Over 5.5 Receptions (+109 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
We often look at gaudy statlines for tight ends like Isaiah Likely and say, “That’s cool but that won’t happen again”. I mean, he’s a tight end after all, right? Why would he continue to get targeted at a high level? Yet he has three games with double-digit targets so far this year. And there is a reason that keeps happening - he’s not really a tight end; he’s more of a wide receiver.
In fact, there are three “tight ends” who are basically just playing full-time wide receiver. I went over to Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I pulled two categories for all tight ends: route participation and inline snaps. I then put them together on a chart. The farther to the right you are, the more routes you are running. The higher you are, the more routes you are running from an inline spot, meaning the lower you are on the chart, the more routes you are running from a wide receiver spot. Here is the chart.
If you look at the bottom right you will find three tight ends - Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Isaiah Likely. Likely is running 90% of his routes from either the slot or out wide; he’s basically the WR2 behind Malik Nabers. So we need to be betting on him as if he were a WR2, which is why we are willing to be the over on this line for him, despite it being set fairly high for a tight end. This is a good matchup vs. New Orleans, and there is no reason why this wouldn’t continue.
👀 How To Watch Saints vs. Giants NFL Week 6
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- When: 1 PM ET on 10/18
- Watch on TV: FOX
- Where to stream: NFL+
🔢 Saints vs. Giants Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants predictions
- Point Spread: New Orleans Saints -1.5 (-105) vs. New York Giants +1.5 (-115)
- Money Line: New Orleans Saints -118 vs. New York Giants -102
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 51.5 (-112) vs. Under 51.5 (-108)
🏉 Saints vs. Giants Injury Report & Latest News
The New Orleans Saints enter this road game with some key names in question on both sides of the ball. The Saints already lost starting RB Travis Etienne, and now Alvin Kamara has been limited all week with a back injury. Last week they mixed in more Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson, so even if he goes, he could be rotated. Wide receiver Chris Olave (illness) is also questionable after missing Wednesday and Thursday’s practices before returning in a limited capacity Friday. New Orleans is without linebacker Kaden Elliss (calf) and edge rusher Anfernee Jennings (knee), both officially ruled out, which will put added pressure on a defense already short-handed up front.
The New York Giants are dealing with significant injury concerns across the roster heading into Sunday. We already mentioned that starting QB Jaxson Dart is done for the season. Most alarming among the new developments is the offensive line, where both Andrew Thomas (groin) and Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) sat out of practice all week and appear unlikely to play, leaving the Giants potentially without two starters in pass protection. Rookie pass rusher Abdul Carter (calf) also missed both Wednesday and Thursday practice sessions, threatening to take one of New York’s most disruptive defensive weapons off the field. Safety Tyler Nubin (neck) was also a DNP both days, adding to the secondary concerns. One other storyline that is worth mentioning is that running back Cam Skattebo has now fumbled four times in five games. When asked about whether that could affect his playing time, coach John Harbaugh didn’t rule it out.
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