NFL Weekly Match-Up Report: Week 16

The last major week of the fantasy football season is upon us! It’s hard to believe that we made it through relatively unscathed this year despite several games getting moved and players missing time with Covid and the typical injuries that occur in the NFL. Now we’re up to the championship week for most fantasy leagues and with so many teams potentially resting key players next week, the last fully stocked week for DFS as well.

Make sure to keep up-to-date with all of the latest in Covid-19 news ahead of lineup locks with the Fantasy Alarm Live Covid Blog.

We have added several stats to each match-up table for a total of 33 stat categories that will highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. All of the same stats as previous are there, but there are now nine more added on, most of which are under the Advanced Stats section. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.

Click here to see a key for what the stat categories mean, including the newly added ones. The color-coding in each matchup table is geared toward an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.

Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats

Match-Up Breakdowns

Minnesota (6-8) at New Orleans (10-4)

• These two teams are pretty similar in how they run their offenses as Minnesota is fifth in Run percentage and New Orleans is sixth and they’re 28th and 27th in pass percentage respectively.

• Minnesota comes in having not allowed a 100-yard receiver since Week 7 while Alvin Kamara hasn’t hit 100-yards from scrimmage in seven straight games.

• Drew Brees came off arguably the worst game of his career last week and he’s still clearly sore but the Vikings pass defense is easier to parse than Kansas City’s and has allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game and sixth-most in yards per attempt.

• Kirk Cousins has posted a passer rating under 100 for three-straight games and New Orleans has the number-two ranked defense in DVOA are allowing just 210.9 yards a game in the air and less than 100 yards on the ground.

Tampa Bay (9-5) at Detroit (5-9)

• Detroit has a terrible defense this year and ranks in the bottom five in most categories which sets up well for Tampa who is trying to clinch a playoff spot.

• Tampa hasn’t been much of a rushing team but now they’re facing the team allowing the fourth-most rushing yards a game at 137.3 and so Leonard Fournette could be a sneaky good play this week.

• On the other side of things, Tampa is the best rush defense in the league on yards allowed and Detroit doesn’t really run it at this point and are sixth-lowest in run percentage of plays called.

• Chris Godwin for Tampa gets a very tasty match-up this week and has been a top target for Tom Brady but for the Lions, T.J. Hockenson has a nice match-up himself and Matthew Stafford may need the quick routes to him to avoid sacks coming in already quite banged up.

San Francisco (5-9) at Arizona (8-6)

• While this is listed as a road game for the Niners, they’ve been playing in Arizona the last two “home” games due to Covid restrictions in California which might make them more comfortable in this game.

• San Francisco have now lost three games in a row twice this year and the Cardinals the last two weeks have been very good defensively allowing just 16.5 PPG and just over 290 yards and racking up a whopping SEVEN sacks a game.

• Kyler Murray has more passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns than any player on the Niners right now and has looked better of late.

• Both teams cover the number-one receivers well, however, there are advantages here with the second wideout against Arizona and slot receivers against San Francisco who are both likely cheap in DFS this week.

Miami (9-5) at Las Vegas (7-7)

• Miami has allowed fewer than 20 points 10 times in 14 games which leads the NFL and now faces an injured Derek Carr who has struggled when healthy of late.

• Las Vegas is allowing 30.1 PPG this year which is their most allowed since the second season they were a team in 1961.

• The Dolphins were short-handed last week but get at least Myles Gaskin back this week and Las Vegas ranks 31st in DVOA against the rush and are allowing the fourth-most points to running backs this year.

• Darren Waller has 425 yards receiving in the last three games which is the most for a tight end in a three game stretch in a season ever. However, Miami is pretty tough against tight ends ranking 28th in most points allowed and 9th in DVOA against the position.

Indianapolis (10-4) at Pittsburgh (11-3)

• After being the toughest team to beat for 11 weeks, Pittsburgh has last three straight games and hasn’t scored over 20 points in four-straight games which is a first for the Steelers since Ben Roethlisberger ’s rookie year in 2004.

• Speaking of quarterback play, Philip Rivers is 47-24 in games in December and January in his career but the Colts haven’t beaten the Steelers without Peyton Manning under center since Week 8 of 1984 (Mark Herrmann).

• Over the last three games the Steelers have allowed 25.3 points per game and had allowed 17.1 PPG in the first 11 games.

• Pittsburgh has a very good pass defense but rank 25th against number one wide receivers on the year in DVOA so T.Y. Hilton might be a sneaky play.

Atlanta (4-10) at Kansas City (13-1)

• Can we get two more explosive offenses on the field at the same time and while the record isn’t good for Atlanta, the offense has still posted more than 25 points a game and runs the fourth-most plays per game in the league.

• Both teams are also top-four in passing yards a game on offense but the Chiefs are top-10 defensively against passing attacks allowing just a tick over 230 yards a game.

• While the Chiefs have posted 20-plus points in 28 straight games, tied for an NFL record, they have also won their last six games by six or fewer points so they haven’t been fully clicking.

• The Falcons haven’t been running the ball well over the last several weeks and ranks 25th in rush plays called while the Chiefs are middle of the road in rushing offense, Atlanta’s rush defense is fourth-best in the league.

Chicago (7-7) at Jacksonville (1-13)

• Does it get much tastier than the resurgent Bears offense against a team clearly tanking for the first pick in the draft at this point?

• In games with Mitch Trubisky starting this season the Bears are averaging better than 28 points per game and Jacksonville is allowing 30.2 points per game on defense to this point.

• Gardner Minshew currently is setting an NFL record for the highest passer rating on a team with as few wins as Jacksonville has and the Bears have been weak against slot receivers this year based on DVOA so that might give you a dart throw to play.

• James Washington needs to average 115.5 scrimmage yards a game the next two games to break Fred Taylor’s rookie record of 1,644.

Cincinnati (3-10-1) at Houston (4-10)

• Two bad defenses facing off against two offenses that can surprise from time-to-time is what this game comes down too.

• Cincinnati has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year while Houston is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

• It should be interesting to see what exactly happens inside the 20 since both teams are bottom-seven in the league offensively there but their defenses are allowing nearly two-thirds of trips to end in touchdowns.

New York (5-9) at Baltimore (9-5)

• If you’re a Giants’ fan this isn’t the match-up you want to see right now as the Ravens have averaged 228 rushing yards a game the last three games and the Giants have allowed 100 or more yards on the ground in the last three games.

• The Giants have also scored 20 or fewer points eight times this year, four straight, but Baltimore has averaged 40.3 points in the last three games.

• While the Giants rank ninth against the TE in points allowed per game, they are 24th against them in DVOA and 32nd against number-three receivers as well.

• If Daniel Jones plays, the Giants are averaging more than seven points a game more with him under center than with Colt McCoy .

Cleveland (10-4) at New York (1-13)

• There are quite a few interesting things to look at here as the Browns have won there last few games by six points or less and of the three previous teams to start 0-13 and win their 14th game, two of them also won their 15th.

• Baker Mayfield has gone 8-1 against non-divisional opponents this year (2-3 vs. AFC North).

• Cleveland is the first team in NFL history to have a negative point differential and have 10 or more wins through the first 14 games of the season which means they’ve been skirting by the skin of their teeth a bit often.

• If you want a game to target tight end touchdowns, you can look at this one as both teams are top-four in most points allowed to the position and bottom-10 in DVOA.

Carolina (4-10) at Washington (6-8)

• The Panthers have lost eight of their 10 games by a single possession this year meaning their record doesn’t fully show how close they’re playing.

• This is a revenge game for Washington’s coach Ron Rivera and a chance to clinch a playoff spot depending on what happens in other NFC East games this weekend.

• Washington is allowing the fifth-fewest scrimmage yards to opposing running backs this year and they rank top-five in points per game allowed and yards per game allowed which if they finish there, would be a first since 2004 for them.

• An interesting thing to watch for is just how well the top target for Carolina fares as Washington ranks 29th in DVOA against number-one wide receivers.

Denver (5-9) at Los Angeles (5-9)

• These two quarterbacks are capable of having good days in this match-up as Drew Lock put up nearly 20 points the last time they played and Justin Herbert is the first rookie in NFL history to have a completion percentage of 65-percent or better and 27 or more touchdowns in a season.

• Along that same line, Herbert is averaging 290.8 yards per game through the air and the Chargers have allowed top-10 quarterback performances in two of the last three weeks.

• Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon III should be looking to have solid games as well as both defenses rank 27th (Denver) and 26th (LA) in Rush DVOA.

• The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most points to tight ends a game this year so Noah Fant could be in a good spot.

Philadelphia (4-9-1) at Dallas (5-9)

• The Eagles come in with a rejuvenated offense under Jalen Hurts with them average four more points per game and about 100 more yards per game with Hurts at the helm.

• Hurts has averaged more than 84 yards rushing per game to this point and the Cowboys are allowing the most rushing yards per game in the league.

• Expect this game to be played at a quick tempo as both teams are top-four in pace and each are in the bottom-third of the league in preventing explosive plays on defense.

• Both teams are still mathematically alive in the NFC East but with very slim chances and a loss for one of these teams all but eliminates them from contention.

Los Angeles (9-5) at Seattle (10-4)

• The Rams are coming off their worst loss of the season in terms of an opponent and they are 4-0 this year in weeks following loses and Russell Wilson is 1-3 in his career when facing the number one pass defense like the Rams are.

• If Seattle wins, they clinch the NFC West for the first time since 2016 and both teams have lost to a team from New York, the Rams have six of their nine wins this year against teams with sub-.500 records.

• While Seattle’s defense has kept teams under 20 points in four straight games, it’s not like it was the toughest stretch of games to do that with and the Rams are holding teams to just 19.2 points per game on the whole of the season.

• With these teams knowing each other so well, it’s going to take some new wrinkles and new offensive players being involved which makes for a great dart throw opportunity.

Tennessee (10-4) at Green Bay (11-3)

• This game has one of the highest over/unders on the board this week as neither defense is that great against what the opposing offense does well.

• Green Bay is weak against the run defensively and decent against the pass, it’s the opposite for Tennessee who are decent against the run and lousy against the pass.

• These are also the two most-efficient offenses in the red zone as well which helps with racking up the points for the over as they are both converting better than 75-percent of red zone trips into touchdowns.

• Robert Tonyan , who’s getting some Pro Bowl snub talk this week, is in a great spot against the Titans 32nd-ranked defense against the TE in DVOA.

Buffalo (11-3) at New England (6-8)

• Typically these two teams play each other tough and defensively the Patriots are still a tough team to face allowing the 30th-most points to quarterbacks and tight ends and the 28th-most to wideouts.

• This is a Monday Night game without much on the line between these two, but normally it’s the Patriots without much on the line rather than the Bills. Buffalo is in the 2-seed in the AFC which is best as they can finish having lost to KC but beaten Pittsburgh and New England has been eliminated.

• One thing to watch for here is that the Bills haven’t been great at stopping the run or red zone plays from the opposing offense and with Cam Newton running so often and generally well, rushing touchdowns could be coming for the Patriots’ quarterback.