Fantasy Football NFL Week 14 Target Report: Justin Jefferson is No Longer a Must-Start

No more fooling around, folks. Fantasy football playoffs are on our doorstep. Outside of a few key exceptions, the time for stashing and hoping is over. We need players who are going to produce NOW. We have one more week before the playoffs, and for some of you, the must-win games have already started.

So we are really going to hone in on the guys who actually matter here. You need to make sure you have the depth to make a run here and, almost as importantly, block your leaguemates from getting weapons that could be used against you. Let’s dig into the data we have and get squared away!

2025 Fantasy Football NFL Week 14 Target Report Preview

Why do we do the target report? Well, we have a pretty good indication historically of how many fantasy-relevant pass-catchers can come from each team. The short and sweet is that the vast majority of teams will have one, maybe two fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. And there will almost certainly be more teams with zero than there are with three. Most meaningful fantasy players get at least 100 targets - here is a look at how players on each team over the last decade have hit that milestone. 

In the chart below, what we will do is attempt to take each team, and project A. the target pecking order and B. what target range the players will likely fall into. At the bottom, we’ll include some notes as far as what went into the rankings and color-coded chart. So let’s dive in!

Fantasy Football Target Chart 2025 NFL Week 14

Fantasy Football Week 14 Target Report Advice & Takeaways

If a team has a ** next to them, it means they moved to a new section. If a team has a note, it means there is something we should monitor or some sort of change. If there are no notes, we can assume it is business as usual. After the first week of football, there are a lot of notes!

Clear Top Two

Cincinnati Bengals

• Ja'Marr Chase
• Tee Higgins
  • When Higgins is back, it’s just Chase and Higgins for us in fantasy. If Higgins remains out, Mitch Tinsley has been the more interesting spot start. It’s hard to trust this TE rotation - on 50 possible routes, Sample ran 22, Gesicki ran 20, Fant ran 15. 

Kansas City Chiefs

• Rashee Rice
• Travis Kelce
  • Rice is locked in. So is Travis Kelce, given the tight end landscape. Xavier Worthy is your next best bet, but he’s been difficult for us to trust on a weekly basis. We always say he could break off a big play with his speed, but he hasn't been reliable recently. He has one TD on the season and one game over 80 yards.   

New Orleans Saints

• Chris Olave
• Juwan Johnson
  • Outside the three-game stretch after he hurt his knee vs. the Bills, Juwan Johnson has offered a fairly reliable floor in any sort of PPR. We trust him at a tough position. 

Los Angeles Rams

• Puka Nacua
• Davante Adams
  • With Higbee out, Colby Parkinson is maxing out at 50% route participation still. Not really enough to trust. 

High Consolidation

Arizona Cardinals

• Trey McBride
• Marvin Harrison Jr
• Michael Wilson
  • Coming off surgery, Marvin Harrison Jr was eased back in. He ran 29 routes, while Michael Wilson ran 43 and Trey McBride ran 42. But MHJ still matched Wilson with 7 targets and outproduced him. So Wilson could still be a spot start, but Marv is clearly their preferred guy. 

Atlanta Falcons

• Drake London*
• Darnell Mooney
• Kyle Pitts
• Bijan Robinson
  • While Drake London is out, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts are guys you can consider for redraft lineups. David Sills is on the radar for DFS as he’s playing a decent number of snaps - 32 routes for him, while Mooney ran 35 and Pitts ran 30. 

Dallas Cowboys

• CeeDee Lamb
• George Pickens
• Jake Ferguson
  • At this stage, you could debate who is the better fantasy option between CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, but who cares  - you are starting both. Jake Ferguson is now a “safe but boring” play if you don’t have more upside available, but this team does find themselves in spots where they need to throw a ton. 

Los Angeles Chargers

• Ladd McConkey
• Oronde Gadsden
• Quentin Johnston
• Keenan Allen
  • It took a long, roundabout path. But we ended up back where we thought we’d be at the start of the season. Ladd McConkey is the only one we can truly trust. The other guys are just spot starts where needed. 

Indianapolis Colts

• Michael Pittman
• Tyler Warren
• Alec Pierce
• Josh Downs
  • Same deal as always here. Pittman and Warren are starts most weeks - especially now that the terrible matchups for Pittman are done. Alec Pierce is a good spot start, especially in standard or half PPR. Josh Downs is really only a full PPR streamer given his limited snap share

Miami Dolphins

• Jaylen Waddle
• De’von Achane
• Darren Waller
  • Darren Waller made his return and ran 69% of the routes. That’s promising despite the lackluster production in the box score. He’s back on the streaming radar with his upside in this scheme. 

Minnesota Vikings

• Justin Jefferson
• Jordan Addison
• T.J. Hockenson
  • Without a reliable quarterback, even the great Justin Jefferson isn’t a “must-start” player. We know the main characters are here, but the production has been hard to trust. All three remain on the start/sit border, and those decisions need to be made on a case-by-case basis. 

Philadelphia Eagles

• AJ Brown
• DeVonta Smith
• Dallas Goedert
• Saquon Barkley
  • We continue to warn folk that Dallas Goedert does not have the man-to-man abilities nor the endzone targets to keep up his early TD production. He’s much more of a spot start at best unless one of AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith is hurt.

San Francisco 49ers

• Christian McCaffrey
• Jauan Jennings
• George Kittle
• Ricky Pearsall
  • The fullback and blocking tight end usage highly consolidates this scheme among these four guys. That doesn’t mean they will all perform each week, but it’s less of a guessing game than some teams. It does not sound like Brandon Aiyuk is expected to return and make a meaningful impact.

Washington Commanders

• Terry McLaurin
• Deebo Samuel
• Zach Ertz
  • Terry McLaurin returned to 14 targets, so he’s back on the menu. They won’t drop back 54 times every week, but Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz should remain on the start/sit fringe. Treylon Burks is the clear WR3 now, but he’s really just a DFS dart throw - great catch this week though.

One Stud, Then Uncertainty

Baltimore Ravens

• Zay Flowers
  • The Bengals have been terrible against the tight end, so not surprised the Ravens leaned on their two tight ends. Andrews ran 26 routes while Likely ran 22. Zay Flowers ran 37 of a possible 38, and Bateman ran 30 with only one target, so Zay Flowers is the guy we can really trust. Andrews has TD upside in any week if you need someone. 

Carolina Panthers

• Tetairoa McMillan 
  • McMillan is the clear top dog. Coker has been getting more targets lately, but Legette is still outsnapping Coker (43 to 35 snaps). So Coker is the better dart throw, but unless that flips, it’s hard to fully trust him. The tight end rotation here continues to make all of them irrelevant. 

Detroit Lions

• Amon-Ra St. Brown*
• Jameson Williams
  • It’s supposed to be a short-term injury for ARSB. If he does miss time, Khalif Raymond is the next man up in his role, but he’s also been banged up. If they are BOTH out, then Tom Kennedy would likely pick up the slot snaps as he did in this game, so maybe a DFS play or a super deep spot start. Jameson Williams remains a boom/bust option, but you almost can’t afford to miss out on the boom weeks.

Houston Texans

• Nico Collins 
  • We are BEGGING the Texans to unleash Jayden Higgins. He’s been the second most efficient WR behind Nico Collins by far. But they continue to rotate him to the point that he only has one game this year with more than 63% of the snaps. We’re still adding and even using him in spots, but his upside could be higher. Dalton Schultz is also on the streaming radar, especially in PPR.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Brock Bowers
  • Tre Tucker at least ran 28 of 29 routes. That puts him as a desperation option. Brock Bowers ran 27, but he’s already a must-start. After that, you got 19 from Tyler Lockett and 14 from Jack Bech. Really, can’t use those guys. 

New England Patriots

• Stefon Diggs
  • We are tempted to add Hunter Henry here. But here’s the problem. He has a bye week next week, then he gets the Bills, one of the worst matchups possible for a tight end. So you need someone else for now. He could be back on the menu for us after the Bills game. 

New York Giants

• Wan’Dale Robinson
  • Wan’Dale Robinson continues to lead this team in routes and targets. After him, no one is running enough routes or getting enough targets for us to consider. Theo Johnson is probably the closest, but it’s so hard to take a guy who isn’t really producing, who is on bye this week, and throw him right into your lineups for the playoffs. So we are looking elsewhere. 

New York Jets

• Garrett Wilson*
  • With Garrett Wilson out, they have two clear top WRs. John Metchie is your “safe but boring” option, and Adonai Mitchell is your “high risk, high reward” option. We have two weeks of duds for Mitchell, but we just got a big week this week. Mason Taylor only ran 27 routes here as he was asked to pass block on 10 plays. That hurts upside big time.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• DK Metcalf
  • This is life in an Arthur Smith offense. DK Metalf is the only WR to run more than 14 routes. And the big tight end rotation is a nightmare from week to week. So Metcalf is the only guy we can use for fantasy. 

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • Rare down week for JSN, but you start him every week, no matter what. He ran 28 of 30 routes. After him were Cooper Kupp (26), AJ Barner (24), and Rashid Shaheed (19). Barner is on the spot start radar. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Emeka Egbuka
  • Chris Godwin isn’t up to a full-time role yet, as Emegka Egbuka ran 34 routes to his 23. But Godwin ran more routes than Tez Johnson (19), and I don’t think that’s flipping back. The next question is what happens if/when Mike Evans returns, and who ends up as the odd man out. Jalen McMillan is also expected to make his return and possibly get activated down the stretch. 

Wide Open

Buffalo Bills

• Khalil Shakir
• Dalton Kincaid*
• Gabe Davis
• Dawson Knox
  • Out of 28 possible routes, Dawson Knox led with 21, followed by Gabe Davis. Next were Khalil Shakir (14), Keon Coleman (13), and then the RBs. Keon Coleman was WR4 in snaps, so he’s not back to a meaningful role. It’s Shakir and then Kincaid when he’s healthy as fantasy options.

Chicago Bears

• Rome Odunze
• DJ Moore
• Luther Burden
• Colston Loveland
  • Luther Burden remains a top stash here with hopes that his role can continue to grow, but Burden (23 routes) and Colston Loveland (26 routes) are still operating behind DJ Moore (39) and Rome Odunze (35). Just not enough to permanently lock into a lineup. 

Cleveland Browns

• Harold Fannin
• Jerry Jeudy
• Cedric Tillman
  • We are now two games into the Shedeur Sanders era. And a trend is developing. Over that span, Harold Fannin leads the team in routes, targets, receptions, yards, first downs, touchdowns, broken tackles, and passer rating when targeted. His super low 2.7 yard aDot is making things easier for the younger QB. We’ll lean on that. 

Denver Broncos*

• Courtland Sutton
• Troy Franklin
• Pat Bryant
• Evan Engram
  • We got hit with a big curveball this week. Pat Bryant played over Troy Franklin and outproduced him. Upon deeper inspection, despite Franklin playing over 150 more snaps this year than Bryant, Bryant has played more run snaps. This week, Franklin only played 2 snaps on designed run plays and, on one of those plays, his man made the tackle. Bryant’s blocking could finally see him playing over Franklin. Evan Engram got more snaps with Marcedes Lewis out, but it was also Washington, which is a good matchup for TEs. 

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson
• Romeo Doubs
• Matthew Golden*
• Jayden Reed*
  • Christian Watson is the guy - at least until Jayden Reed gets back. He continually leads the team in routes run and got 10 targets this week. Doubs plays over Wicks, so don’t expect Wicks to outproduce him again. The tight ends rotate to the point that none of them are useful to us. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Jakobi Meyers
• Brian Thomas Jr
• Brenton Strange
• Parker Washington*
  • We need to see one more game here before we make any definitive conclusions. They tried to ease BTJ back in, but Parker Washington left with a hip injury. We don’t really know whether Washington would have continued to operate ahead of BTJ or not. If Washington were to miss time, that would simplify things. Brenton Strange is a streaming option as he ran 28 of 35 routes here 

Tennessee Titans

• Elic Ayomanor
• Chimere Dike
• Van Jefferson
• Chig Okonkwo
• Gunnar Helm
  • Elic Ayomanor returned and led the team in routes run with 36, but Chimere Dike (35) and Van Jefferson (31) were right behind him. This team could produce a fantasy-relevant tight end if they didn’t split - Okonkwo ran 24 routes of a possible 42, Helm ran 22. They combined for 12 targets, but they are more spot starts or DFS darts. If one were to go down, the other could thrive.