Fantasy Football NFL Week 16 Target Report: Quarterback Chaos Shakes Things Up

This is a crazy game we play. And, even though we have fantasy football championships in Week 17 to avoid some of the uncertainty, curveballs continue to fly at us from all angles. I mean, just look at the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes is hurt. Tua Tagovailoa has been benched. Philip Rives has come out of retirement. It’s chaos.

That’s why it’s more important than ever to identify who we can trust, who we can’t and, if we need to throw a dart, where to aim it. And that’s what the target report has been about all year. So let’s dig in and lock things down!

2025 Fantasy Football NFL Week 16 Target Report Preview

Why do we do the target report? Well, we have a pretty good indication historically of how many fantasy-relevant pass-catchers can come from each team. The short and sweet is that the vast majority of teams will have one, maybe two fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. And there will almost certainly be more teams with zero than there are with three. Most meaningful fantasy players get at least 100 targets - here is a look at how players on each team over the last decade have hit that milestone. 
 

In the chart below, what we will do is attempt to take each team, and project A. the target pecking order and B. what target range the players will likely fall into. At the bottom, we’ll include some notes as far as what went into the rankings and color-coded chart. So let’s dive in!

Fantasy Football Target Chart 2025 NFL Week 16

Fantasy Football Week 16 Target Report Advice & Takeaways

If a team has a ** next to them, it means they moved to a new section. If a team has a note, it means there is something we should monitor or some sort of change. If there are no notes, we can assume it is business as usual. After the first week of football, there are a lot of notes!

Clear Top Two

Cincinnati Bengals

• Ja'Marr Chase
• Tee Higgins*c
  • No one can truly be trusted with Tee Higgins out because they don’t have a clear number 3 at WR or TE. For instance, this week Tanner Hudson got 5 targets on only 16 routes. Andrei Iosvias ran 40 routes to 40 for Chase, but he just does not generate targets consistently. 

Kansas City Chiefs

• Rashee Rice
• Travis Kelce
  • We couldn’t trust Xavier Worthy with Patrick Mahomes; we certainly won’t with Gardner Minshew. Rice and Kelce should hopefully still get the volume we need for upside. 

Los Angeles Rams

• Puka Nacua
• Davante Adams*
  • Davante Adams left with the hamstring issue he’s had. If he’s out, Colby parkinson gets a bump. They used a ton of multiple TE sets here to the point that Colby Parkinson (30) and Terrance Ferguson (29) led the team in routes even over Nacua (26) and Adams (25). Konata Mumpfield is your dart throw WR if Adams is out. Colby Parkinson is a waiver wire add this week.

Washington Commanders

• Terry McLaurin
• Deebo Samuel
  • We were hoping Ben Sinnott could take the full Ertz role. But he didn’t. No one did. The leaders in routes run were Terry McLaurin (22), Deebo Samuel (21), and Jeremy McNichols (14). Not ideal. 

High Consolidation

Arizona Cardinals

• Trey McBride
• Marvin Harrison Jr*
• Michael Wilson
  • At this stage, it might just be better for fantasy gamers for Marvin Harrison to just rest up and look ahead to next year. Trey McBride and Michael Wilson are must-starts when he’s out. 

Atlanta Falcons

• Drake London*
• Darnell Mooney
• Kyle Pitts
• Bijan Robinson
  • Kyle Pitts obviously went bonkers here - that also makes three good weeks in a row. So it will be hard to sit him even when London is back. Mooney will be off the radar when London is back, and is pretty fringe even without him. David Sills is a DFS dart throw.

Dallas Cowboys

• CeeDee Lamb
• George Pickens
• Jake Ferguson
  • George Pickens seems out of it all of a sudden, but the usage is still high, and the spike weeks are too good to bench him in most cases. 

Detroit Lions

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jameson Williams
• Jahmyr Gibbs
  • No tight end has emerged with LaPorta out, so these guys are dominating the targets.

Los Angeles Chargers

• Ladd McConkey
• Quentin Johnston* (Tre Harris)
• Keenan Allen
• Oronde Gadsden
  • When Quentin Johnston is out, Tre Harris plays split end. That we know for certain. Who will get the ball in any given week is the curveball. McConkey led in routes run but only got 3 targets. Tre Harris ran 27 and got 5, Gadsden ran 21 and got 5, Keenan Allen ran 19 and got 7. It’s really hard to trust anyone here.

Indianapolis Colts

• Michael Pittman
• Tyler Warren
• Alec Pierce
• Josh Downs
  • As expected, Philip Rivers had a 2.41-second average time to throw, which was dead last among starters. The next closest was Tyler Shough at 2.69. That’s good news for Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman, and even Josh Downs, but not good for Alec Pierce. It’s basically the Flacco Colts era here.

Miami Dolphins

• Jaylen Waddle
• De’von Achane
• Darren Waller
  • Great. Just what we needed. A quarterback change. Could it be better? Maybe. Could it be worse? Maybe. Since we have no NFL sample size of Quinn Ewers, all this really does is sprinkle uncertainty onto each player. You are starting Achane obviously, but it pushes Waddle and Waller into start/sit decision territory. And right when Waller has the best possible matchup.

Minnesota Vikings

• Justin Jefferson
• Jordan Addison
• T.J. Hockenson
  • JJ McCarthy is having a hard time connecting with Justin Jefferson. And the target distribution, combined with the subpar play, makes all of these guys hard to trust. Doesn’t help that Jalen Nailor was the guy who got both touchdowns despite being 5th on the team in routes run. 

New Orleans Saints

• Chris Olave
• Devaughn Vele*
• Juwan Johnson
  • Devaugn Vele left with a shoulder injury and didn’t return. That saw Mason Tipton play 55 snaps to 58 for Olave. Kevin Austin Jr became the WR3 with 26 snaps. Maybe Tipton or Austin could be DFS dart throws but missing Vele would likely just boost Olave and Juwan Johnson for us. 

Philadelphia Eagles

• AJ Brown
• DeVonta Smith
• Dallas Goedert
• Saquon Barkley

San Francisco 49ers

• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle
• Jauan Jennings
• Ricky Pearsall
  • Brandon Aiyuk is done for the year, so these are the guys. They use a lot of fullback and two TE sets, which consolidates the targets. Ricky Pearsall actually showed us something this week, too, which was nice to see, but he got nicked up. The other three you are probably starting regardless, we’ll monitor the health

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Mike Evans
• Chris Godwin
• Emeka Egbuka
  • Evans is back, and his 10 targets speak for themselves. Chris Godwin led the team in snaps and routes, which leads us to believe that Emeka Egbuka will be the odd man out for two WR sets. It helps that Cade Otton is out, but Jalen McMillan is also back in the mix. 

One Stud, Then Uncertainty

Baltimore Ravens

• Zay Flowers
  • This is pretty simple for us at this stage. You start Zay Flowers in most spots, and you start Mark Andrews only if you have to. If the run game is working, the Ravens have no problem abandoning the pass game, which is annoying for fantasy. 

Carolina Panthers

• Tetairoa McMillan 
  • McMillan has not delivered so far, but he leads the team in routes run and targets most weeks. The tight ends rotate too much, and Xaveir Legette and Jalen Coker are mere dart throws. 

Cleveland Browns

• Harold Fannin
• Jerry Jeudy
  • Another game with massive work for Harold Fannin as he saw 14 targets. He and Jeudy are the only ones running full route shares for this team. And Fannin is really the only one we can trust at this stage, as Sanders likes the low aDot stuff so far.

Houston Texans

• Nico Collins 
  • Jayden Higgins played 48 snaps to 49 for Nico Collins, but only garnered one target on the day. Can’t really be trusted. Dalton Schultz got 9 targets here, but his matchup is a little tougher for tight ends next week. Nico is a must-start. 

Las Vegas Raiders

• Brock Bowers
  • Bowers is the top target. And Jeanty always quietly gets a decent amount. That leaves room for MAYBE one other guy to be fantasy relevant. Tre Tucker runs the most routes and is the best bet, but is tough to trust. Tyler Lockett and Jack Bech are DFS dart throws at best. 

New York Giants

• Wan’Dale Robinson
  • Wan’Dale Robinson (43 routes) and Darius Slayton (39) each got 9 targets here, while Theo Johnson ran 32 routes and got 4. So Wan’Dale is a guy we are starting where we have him, while Slayton and Theo are on the spot start radar if we need them. 

New York Jets

• Garrett Wilson*
  • Adonai Mitchell maintained his top spot, but John Metchie rotated more with Isaiah Williams. Sometimes, with QB changes, you see guys that a player practices with play more, so perhaps Isaiah Williams has a connection with Brady Cook they wanted to lean on. Metchie was already hard to trust, so it’s Mitchell or bust for us. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

• DK Metcalf
  • After DK Metcalf, I do not trust a single one of these players to start for my team in fantasy football playoffs. All the other wide receivers and tight ends rotate. If you had to throw a dart at a WR, I’d go with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. At tight end, it’s a complete mess, but Pat Freiermuth would be the play. 

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • With Elijah Arroyo out, the Seahawks ran more 11 personnel, which helps AJ Barner and Rashid Shaheed. Hard to trust them this late in the season, but they are on the DFS radar.

Wide Open

Buffalo Bills

• Khalil Shakir
• Dalton Kincaid
• Brandin Cooks
• Dawson Knox
  • This team loves to spread the ball around. It’s obvious that Khalil Shakir is their obvious playmaker and a guy you use in full PPR. He ran 28 routes. No one else ran more than 20, including Dalton Kincaid, who only ran 16 of a possible 35. His TE eligibility is the only thing keeping him in play for us. Even Shakir disappears from time to time.

Chicago Bears

• Rome Odunze*
• DJ Moore
• Luther Burden*
• Colston Loveland
  • Injuries will inevitably decide who we can trust or not. Rome Odunze is dealing with a foot issue that kept him out. Luther Burden left with an ankle issue in the third. DJ Moore and Colston Loveland would be a lot easier to utilize if they were both out. 

Denver Broncos

• Courtland Sutton
• Pat Bryant*
• Evan Engram
• Troy Franklin
  • With Pat Bryant out, Lil’Jordan Humphrey became the WR2 because of his size/blocking. But Troy Franklin mixed in and got more targets. Sutton is a must-start, and Franklin would be on the fringe until Bryant gets back. Marvin Mims got some looks but only ran 12 routes and played 21 of 68 snaps. Evan Engram played even less. 

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson
• Romeo Doubs
• Jayden Reed
  • We’ll have to wait on this chest injury info for Christian Watson. He’s been their best wide receiver. If he misses time, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed would be the biggest beneficiaries. It would be wise for them to see what they have in rookie Matthew Golden, but they could rotate him with Dontayvion Wicks, which would make both irrelevant. Of a possible 46 routes, John FitzPatrick ran 28, Luke Musgrave ran 24. So hard to trust them. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Jakobi Meyers
• Brian Thomas Jr
• Brenton Strange
  • Liam Coen has his style. BTJ is basically in the Mike Evans role. Jakobi Meyers is in the Chris Godwin role. And Brenton Strange is his version of Cade Otton. That’s good news for Meyers and BTJ; Strange is there if someone gets hurt.

New England Patriots

• Stefon Diggs
• Hunter Henry
• Mack Hollins
• Kayshon Boutte
  • There’s clearly something going on with Stefon Diggs here. There was talk of a chest injury, and he only ran 16 of 28 routes. He has a lot of incentives it looks like he might not hit. Boutte (25 routes, 1 target) led in routes, but Hollins (21 routes, 8 targets) led in targets. Hunter Henry (24 of 28 routes) will be back on the menu after a tough matchup this week. 

Tennessee Titans

• Elic Ayomanor
• Chimere Dike
• Van Jefferson
• Chig Okonkwo
• Gunnar Helm
  • Elic Ayomanor led in routes run, but Chimere Dike got the targets (and a carry). Van Jefferson got banged up, which would help these two. We only saw 17 routes run for Chig Okonwko out of 29, while Gunnar Helm only ran 9, so these guys continue to block each other’s upside.