Week 9 brings an eleven-game Sunday main slate, and the board is lopsided. Three games sit at 50 or higher, a handful of favorites are laying nine or more points, and the bottom of the totals is full of backup quarterbacks. Injuries have gutted several receiver rooms, so a big number doesn't tell you much by itself. This breakdown of the best NFL DFS game stacks for Week 9 covers the top game environments, the stacks worth building on DraftKings and FanDuel, the contrarian options, and the games to avoid, using Vegas totals and spreads, defensive matchups, injuries, weather and ownership.
Best NFL DFS Game Environments for Week 9
The best NFL DFS game environments for Week 9 are Cowboys-Colts and Raiders-49ers, both at 51.5, with Lions-Dolphins right behind at 50.5. Jets-Chiefs is 47.5, and Rams-Commanders is 47.5. After that, it drops off: Broncos-Panthers and Packers-Patriots are 44.5, Browns-Saints is 42.5, Texans-Chargers is 40.5, Cardinals-Seahawks is 39.5, and Giants-Eagles is 38.5. By FTN's defensive DVOA, where negative is good, Arizona has the worst pass defense on the slate; Dallas is 30th, Miami is 29th, New Orleans is 28th, and Las Vegas is 27th. Miami and Las Vegas are the two I'm attacking. Weather isn't a major factor. Indianapolis and New Orleans are indoors, Lions-Dolphins is hot at about 82 degrees, and there are gusts near 20 mph early in Rams-Commanders and Giants-Eagles. Cardinals-Seahawks has a 23% chance of rain with gusts up to 17 mph. Three games carry blowout risk, with San Francisco and Kansas City both favored by 9.5 and Seattle by 8.5.
Best NFL DFS Games to Stack
Lions-Dolphins (DET -6.5, 50.5 total)
Goff and St. Brown are the stack. Detroit is implied for 28.5 and Miami is 1-6 with the 29th-ranked pass defense in DVOA and the 26th-ranked defense against tight ends. Jared Goff is only about 5% on DraftKings and 10% on FanDuel after throwing his first interception of the season in the 19-15 win over Minnesota. Amon-Ra St. Brown is Questionable with a rib injury, but he's expected to play, and he's about 16% on DraftKings and 14% on FanDuel. Jameson Williams is the secondary piece at about 4% on DraftKings and 7% on FanDuel, and he has a touchdown catch in three of his last four games. Sam LaPorta is a fine third piece against that tight end matchup. Jahmyr Gibbs is the chalk at 28% on DraftKings and 32% on FanDuel and he's not part of the stack. Detroit's defense is the reason this game can score. Kerby Joseph, D.J. Reed, D.J. Wonnum, and Jack Campbell are all out, and Miami's pass catchers get a soft draw. Greg Dulcich is the bring-back at $3,100 on DraftKings, where he's 18% owned, but he's only 7% on FanDuel, so he's the better play there. De'Von Achane is out, so there isn't a running back worth the comeback. The risk is Gibbs, who can take the scoring away from the passing game.
Cowboys-Colts (DAL -4.5, 51.5 total)
Prescott and Lamb are the stack. Dallas is implied for 28 points and Indianapolis is 2-6 after a 42-7 loss to Jacksonville, one week after trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner. The Colts' pass defense is 21st in DVOA, and it's 30th against No. 2 receivers, which is George Pickens' spot. CeeDee Lamb is chalk at about 21% on DraftKings and 22% on FanDuel, and Dak Prescott is only about 8% on DraftKings and 12% on FanDuel. The question is the third piece. Pickens is OUT with a hamstring, and Ryan Flournoy is the fill-in at about 7% on DraftKings and 12% on FanDuel if he sits. Dallas is coming off an overtime loss to Arizona, which is a reason to be careful. Javonte Williams is about 8% on DraftKings and 14% on FanDuel and he's not part of the stack. The bring-back is thin. Daniel Jones is about 4%, and Keenan Allen is about 7% on DraftKings, and Jonathan Taylor is the comeback at 3%, with Indianapolis missing Davis-Gaither, Walle,y and Haulcy on defense. The risk is Pickens' hamstring, since this stack loses its third piece without him.
Raiders-49ers (SF -9.5, 51.5 total)
Cousins and Bowers are the stack, and I'm building it from the Raiders' side. San Francisco is 6,-1 and Brock Purdy isn't a stack for me because Mike Evans (Achilles), Deebo Samuel (hamstring), and Christian Kirk (knee) are all out, which leaves George Kittle (29% on both sites) as the only real target. Las Vegas is the opposite. The Raiders have scored 221 points through eight games, their most since 2002, and Kirk Cousins threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another in the 38-33 win over the Jets. Brock Bowers had seven catches for 92 yards and two scores. Cousins is about 1.5% on both sites, and Bowers is about 7% on DraftKings and 13% on FanDuel. As a 9.5-point underdog, Las Vegas will be throwing, and San Francisco is 25th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers. Tre Tucker is the cheaper piece at under 1% on DraftKings and about 1% on FanDuel. The bring-back is Kittle or Jordan Watkins, who's $3,300 on DraftKings and 4.5% owned with the wide receivers out. Christian McCaffrey is the comeback at 34% on DraftKings and 29% on FanDuel against the worst run defense in the league in DVOA. The risk is the 9.5-point spread, since a San Francisco lead hands the fourth quarter to McCaffrey.
Highest-Scoring Games to Target
| Game | Vegas Total | Spread | Top Stack to Build |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys-Colts | 51.5 | DAL -4.5 | Prescott / Lamb |
| Raiders-49ers | 51.5 | SF -9.5 | Cousins / Bowers |
| Lions-Dolphins | 50.5 | DET -6.5 | Goff / St. Brown |
| Jets-Chiefs | 47.5 | KC -9.5 | Fade (Wilson out) |
| Rams-Commanders | 47.5 | LAR -4.5 | Fade (receivers out) |
| Broncos-Panthers | 44.5 | DEN -2.5 | Fade |
| Packers-Patriots | 44.5 | NE -3 | Fade (tough pass D) |
| Browns-Saints | 42.5 | NO -3.5 | Fade (backup QB) |
Best Contrarian NFL DFS Stacks
Raiders Stack: Kirk Cousins and Tre Tucker
- This is the cheap version of the Raiders stack, and it's my favorite leverage play. Cousins is about 1.5% on both sites and the Raiders are scoring almost 28 points a game, while Las Vegas' defense is 27th against the pass and last against the run in DVOA, so the game stays high-scoring if San Francisco keeps pace. Tucker is under 1% on DraftKings and about 1% on FanDuel. Bowers is the third piece. This is a volume bet, not a matchup bet, and it pairs with Kittle and McCaffrey from the other side.
Texans Stack: C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins
- Houston is a 5.5-point favorite against a Chargers team that is 0-7, and Collins is healthy with no injury designation. Stroud is about 3% on DraftKings and 4% on FanDuel, and Collins is about 5% on DraftKings and 10% on FanDuel. Los Angeles' pass defense is 14th in DVOA, but its run defense is 28th, so Woody Marks (about 10%) is the one back worth a look with David Montgomery out. Dalton Schultz is a much better value on FanDuel at 2% than on DraftKings at 14%. There's no bring-back against a Chargers offense that can't score. The risk is the 40.5 total, since Houston could build a lead and hand it to Marks.
NFL DFS Games to Fade
Rams-Commanders (47.5 total, LAR -4.5)
- Davante Adams is on injured reserve and tight end Terrance Ferguson is out, with Colby Parkinson Questionable, so Matthew Stafford is throwing to Puka Nacua and a group of backups. Nacua is 27% on DraftKings and 30% on FanDuel. Terry McLaurin is out for Washington, and Antonio Williams is 28% on DraftKings at $4,100. The Rams' defense is sixth in DVOA. The wind is gusting near 20 mph early. I'd rather take Kyren Williams (4% on DraftKings, 16% on FanDuel) as a one-off.
Seahawks-Cardinals (39.5 total, SEA -8.5)
- Both teams changed quarterbacks. Sam Darnold is out, so Drew Lock is starting for Seattle, and Gardner Minshew is starting for Arizona with Jacoby Brissett out. Seattle is also without Rashid Shaheed, Charles Cross,s and Quenton Nelson, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba (about 14% on DraftKings and 13% on FanDuel) is the one piece I'd consider, with Arizona's pass defense 31st in DVOA. Arizona has Jeremiyah Love on injured reserve, and Trey McBride is about 1% owned at $7,700. There's a 23% chance of rain and gusts up to 17 mph. It's a one-off game, not a stack.
Jets-Chiefs (47.5 total, KC -9.5)
- Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion, and Kansas City is third in DVOA against No. 1 receivers and second against No. 2 receivers. Mahomes is the highest-owned quarterback on DraftKings at about 15%, and Kenneth Walker is 15% on DraftKings and 27% on FanDuel. I'm not paying that for Mahomes, and Walker is the one-off. Adonai Mitchell is the chalk on the Jets side at 16% on DraftKings.
Packers-Patriots (44.5 total, NE -3)
Broncos-Panthers (44.5 total, DEN -2.5)
Green Bay's pass defense is third in DVOA, New England's is eighth, and Denver's is sixth, and I don't want a stack from any of these. Micah Parsons is out for Green Bay, which keeps Drake Maye interesting at 2%, but A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson are both out for New England. Rhamondre Stevenson is 18% on DraftKings and 22% on FanDuel, and Jonah Coleman is 28% on DraftKings with RJ Harvey out. Carolina's pass defense is 19th, which makes Denver the better of those two sides, but it isn't enough to build around.
Browns-Saints (42.5 total, NO -3.5)
Giants-Eagles (38.5 total, NYG -3)
- Shedeur Sanders is starting for Deshaun Watson, who cleared the concussion protocol but is expected to be inactive, and the Saints defense is 20% on DraftKings and 32% on FanDuel. Giants-Eagles is the lowest total on the slate. Joe Milton is starting for Philadelphia, which is missing DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, and Britain Covey, and Cam Skattebo is Doubtful, so Devin Singletary is 23% on DraftKings. The Giants defense is 18% on DraftKings. Gusts near 20 mph don't help either offense.
NFL DFS Stack Rankings for Week 9
This is my order, based on price, matchup, who's healthy,y and ownership. Salary and ownership are for the QB and his pass catcher on each site.
| Rank | QB / Pass-Catcher Stack | Game (Total, Spread) | DK Sal | DK Own% | FD Sal | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Goff / Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET/MIA (50.5, DET -6.5) | $14,700 | 10.5% | $16,300 | 11.7% |
| 2 | Dak Prescott / CeeDee Lamb | DAL/IND (51.5, DAL -4.5) | $14,800 | 14.5% | $16,800 | 17.3% |
| 3 | Kirk Cousins / Brock Bowers | LV/SF (51.5, SF -9.5) | $13,200 | 4.4% | $14,900 | 7.5% |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins / Tre Tucker | LV/SF (51.5, SF -9.5) | $10,700 | 1.1% | $12,600 | 1.4% |
| 5 | C.J. Stroud / Nico Collins | HOU/LAC (40.5, HOU -5.5) | $13,100 | 4.2% | $15,300 | 7.1% |
Lions-Dolphins is where I want the most exposure, and Goff at 5% on DraftKings is the way to get there.
Cousins and Tucker are my favorite leverage play. They sit around 1% in a 51.5-total game with a Raiders offense that has been scoring all season.
Before lock, I'm checking Amon-Ra St. Brown's rib injury.